ASML Holding(ASML) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2026, total net sales were EUR 8.8 billion, aligning with guidance. Net system sales reached EUR 6.3 billion, with over EUR 4.1 billion from EUV system sales and over EUR 2.1 billion from non-EUV system sales [5][6] - Gross margin for Q1 was at 53%, at the high end of guidance, primarily due to high-margin components in the installed base business [5][6] - Net income for Q1 was EUR 2.8 billion, representing 31.4% of total net sales, resulting in earnings per share of EUR 7.15 [6] - Q1 free cash flow was -EUR 2.6 billion, mainly due to the timing of down payments [6] - For Q2 2026, total net sales are expected to be between EUR 8.4 billion and EUR 9 billion, with gross margin anticipated between 51% and 52% [7][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net system sales were split almost equally between logic (49%) and memory (51%) [5] - Installed base management sales for Q1 were EUR 2.5 billion, slightly above guidance [5] - The company expects installed base management revenue to grow significantly in 2026, driven by service revenue from the expanding EUV installed base [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The semiconductor industry growth outlook is solidifying, driven by AI-related infrastructure investments, increasing demand for advanced logic and memory chips [9][10] - Memory customers have confirmed they are sold out for the remainder of the year, with supply limitations expected to persist beyond 2026 [9] - Logic customers are adding capacity across multiple advanced nodes, with expectations of supply limitations beyond 2026 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing a capacity expansion plan for 2026, aiming for at least 60 Low-NA EUV systems and increasing the move rates for HBM products [11] - The 2026 revenue guidance has been updated to between EUR 36 billion and EUR 40 billion, with a gross margin expectation between 51% and 53% [12] - The company is focusing on productivity upgrades for installed bases to meet short-term output requirements [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that demand continues to outpace supply, creating constraints across end markets, which drives customers to aggressively add capacity [9] - The company sees a strong year ahead and expects growth in 2026, supported by significant investments from customers [11] - Management emphasized the importance of ongoing discussions with customers to align capacity needs and ensure timely delivery [10][11] Other Important Information - ASML paid a third interim dividend of EUR 1.60 per ordinary share in Q1 2026 and intends to declare a total dividend of EUR 7.50 per ordinary share for 2025, a 17% increase compared to 2024 [7][8] - The company is making progress on technology, including improvements in Low-NA EUV productivity and advancements in High-NA systems [13][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updated 2026 revenue guidance and its sources - The increase in immersion outlook is primarily from non-China customers, with China expected to remain around 20% [19] Question: Gross margin guidance stability despite increased immersion - The gross margin guidance remains unchanged due to increased costs associated with hiring and ramping up production [21] Question: Customer visibility and growth profile for 2027 and 2028 - Discussions with customers are primarily focused on 2026, with some movement towards 2027, but 2028 is still too far to predict [26][27] Question: DUV capacity needs in relation to EUV tools - The company believes current DUV capacity is sufficient, with demand scaling alongside EUV [50] Question: Pricing model and customer behavior changes - Customers are more open about their expansion plans, but the company's pricing model is based on the value provided rather than market pressures [92][94]