AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) Cowen 43rd Annual Healthcare Conference (Transcript)

AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Company: AbbVie Inc. - Event: Cowen 43rd Annual Healthcare Conference Call - Date: March 7, 2023 Key Points Industry and Pipeline Developments - RINVOQ: Expected to receive approvals for new indications in rheumatology and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) by mid-year, with potential Phase III trials for alopecia areata, hidradenitis suppurativa, and lupus starting this year [5][6] - Oncology Pipeline: Introduction of Teliso-V targeting non-small cell lung cancer, with a readout expected by the end of the year for potential accelerated approval [6] - Epcoritamab: Strong efficacy observed in DLBCL, with plans for accelerated approval and expansion into earlier treatment lines [51][52] Financial Projections and Market Dynamics - RINVOQ and SKYRIZI: Potential to exceed HUMIRA's peak sales, with indications expected to add a couple of billion dollars in revenue by the second half of the decade [7] - HUMIRA Erosion: Anticipated erosion of 35% to 55% in the U.S. market, with a current erosion rate of 37% compared to 45% in Europe [12][18] - Biosimilars: Seven to nine biosimilars expected to enter the market mid-year, contributing to increased volume impact in the second half of 2023 [18] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Aesthetics Market: Stability observed in the U.S. market, with economic indicators such as consumer confidence and Google searches showing positive trends, although no recovery is assumed for 2023 [26][27] - Imbruvica: Expected significant erosion due to competition from Brukinsa and Venclexta, with stabilization anticipated in 2024 and 2025 [29][30] Growth Drivers - Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD): Significant growth expected for RINVOQ and SKYRIZI, with high adoption rates due to superior performance in approved indications [32][34] - Vraylar: Positive early results in the MDD indication, with expectations for significant market share growth [45][47] Long-term Outlook - Pipeline Potential: Investors may underestimate the growth potential of SKYRIZI and RINVOQ, as well as the breadth of the pipeline in oncology [59] - Aesthetics Business: Projected to exceed $9 billion by 2029, contrary to sell-side expectations [60] Additional Insights - Switchback Phenomenon: Observed in European markets where patients switch back to HUMIRA due to adverse events or loss of efficacy with biosimilars [20][24] - Market Competition: The migraine market is competitive, with AbbVie holding a significant share of new prescriptions, indicating strong positioning against competitors [40][41] Conclusion AbbVie is navigating a complex landscape with a robust pipeline and strategic focus on growth areas such as immunology and oncology. The company anticipates significant revenue contributions from new indications and is closely monitoring market dynamics, particularly in the face of increasing competition and the evolving biosimilar landscape.