住房需求总量及结构趋势研究之四

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Real Estate Industry Industry Overview - The Chinese real estate industry is experiencing a rapid decline in demand, with annual residential sales dropping by 49% and construction starts decreasing by 62% [1] - Land acquisition has also seen a significant decline of approximately 59% across 300 cities [1] - Housing prices in first-tier cities have decreased by about 25% from historical highs, with national housing prices potentially falling by over 25%, approaching 30% [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The rental yield for real estate has surpassed government bond yields, with first-tier cities yielding around 1.8%, second-tier cities at par with bond yields, and third and fourth-tier cities showing significantly higher returns [1][2] - The market fundamentals of the Chinese real estate sector have undergone a deep adjustment, but signs of policy catalysis and bottom support are emerging, indicating a potential gradual recovery [1] - The long-term residential demand center in China is estimated to be around 1.16 billion square meters, despite current market sales and construction volumes declining [1][4] Additional Important Content - The current rental yield across most cities exceeds 2.5%, while the 10-year government bond yield has dropped to approximately 2.29%, indicating a narrowing spread that may favor real estate investment [2] - The construction starts per thousand people in China is 4.5, which is lower than Japan's 6.6 and comparable to the US's 4.2, suggesting that China's real estate market has a solid foundation after deep adjustments [3] - The residential sales area in 2023 has fallen to 950 million square meters, with construction area dropping below 700 million square meters, indicating an oversold market state [4] - The second-hand housing market has shown relative improvement, with transaction data from 17 cities indicating a better performance compared to 2022, although still below 2021 levels [5] - Recent policy changes include a shift towards demand-side support, with over 30 cities promoting "old-for-new" policies and easing purchase restrictions in key cities like Beijing and Chengdu [6][7] - The government is implementing strict controls on new land supply and utilizing "old-for-new" policies to manage inventory, which is expected to provide support for both market volume and prices [6][8]