UBS房地产调查——情绪依然疲软

Summary of China Property Market Research Call Industry Overview - Industry: Real Estate - Company: UBS Evidence Lab - Date: May 8, 2024 Key Findings Property Purchase Intentions - The intention to buy property over the next two years remains weak, with an increase from 18% to 22% of respondents planning to buy compared to the last survey in August 2023 [6] - The number of respondents with no intention to buy property increased from 46% in August 2023 to 48% in April 2024, indicating a weak but stable sentiment [6] Price Expectations - Property price expectations have weakened, with 36% of respondents anticipating price declines over the next 12 months, up from 29% in August 2023 [9] - Secondary listings across 50 cities increased by 5.66% year-to-date as of April 28, 2024, indicating a historical high of 3.9 million units [16] Confidence Boosters - The top three factors that could boost household confidence in property purchases are: 1. Government cash/coupon support 2. Lower mortgage rates 3. Relaxation of property purchase restrictions [5][13] Concerns in the Market - The main concerns affecting the property market include: 1. Risk of policy changes 2. High property prices 3. Potential introduction of a property tax [11] - Concerns over unfinished construction projects remain significant, affecting buyer confidence [20] Macro Implications - Weak property purchase intentions and price outlooks continue to exert pressure on property activity and the overall economy [19] - The negative wealth effect from declining property prices is suppressing consumer confidence and spending [24] Sales and Investment Forecast - The baseline forecast anticipates a decline in property sales volumes by 5-10%, new starts by 15-20%, and real estate investment by 5-10% year-over-year in 2024 [33] - Home prices are expected to decline by no more than 10% in 2024, which is slightly smaller than the declines observed in 2023 [34] Policy Outlook - More policy support is anticipated, with local governments expected to announce measures to ease home purchase restrictions and support stalled projects [32] - The central government is expected to provide low-cost funding to assist local governments in these efforts [32] Additional Insights - The survey indicates that 52% of homeowners believe their property value is still above their purchase price, while 17% report a decline [24] - The low loan-to-value (LTV) ratios among homeowners (averaging less than 40%) suggest that the risk of mortgage defaults is relatively low [27] Conclusion - The current sentiment in the Chinese property market is characterized by weak purchase intentions and declining price expectations, with significant concerns over policy changes and unfinished projects. The anticipated policy support may help stabilize the market, but the overall outlook remains cautious.