CYPC(600900) 长江证券·2024-06-09 13:03Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was 8,091 million RMB, a decrease of 23.85% compared to 2022, with projected revenues of 10,478 million RMB for 2024, indicating a potential recovery of 29.50% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,226 million RMB, down 61.80% from 2022, with forecasts of 2,918 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a significant increase of 138.05% [3] - The company's ROE for 2023 was 6.59%, significantly lower than the 17.98% in 2022, but expected to recover to 15.38% in 2024 [3] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company has a total installed hydropower capacity of 10.24 GW as of the end of 2023, with 89.8% located in Guangxi Province, indicating a strong regional focus [2][4] - The average ROE from 2019 to 2023 was 15.6%, higher than the industry leader, Yangtze Power, which had an average of 15.3% during the same period [2][4] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 81% from 2019 to 2023, surpassing Yangtze Power's 74% [2][4] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The Daqin Railway, as a core energy transportation line, handled 6.2 billion tons of coal in 2023, accounting for 22.5% of the national railway coal transportation volume [13] - The company is expected to see a slight increase in coal transportation volume from 2025 to 2026, driven by stable demand and supply dynamics [10][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on the integration of hydropower and wind-solar energy development, with a projected annual increase of 1 GW in new energy installations from 2024 to 2035 [6][8] - The transition to multi-modal logistics is a key strategic direction for the Daqin Railway, with the establishment of 40 railway logistics centers nationwide [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management indicated that the hydropower pricing in Guangxi has stabilized at 0.218 RMB/kWh, which is expected to remain steady if there are no significant policy changes [4] - The company expressed confidence in its ability to maintain high dividend payouts, with potential for over 90% in 2024-2025 and exceeding 100% in the following years [2][8] Other Important Information - The company's financial leverage remains strong, with a debt-to-asset ratio of only 55.4% and an average borrowing rate of 2.6%, providing ample room for debt financing [8] - The company has a robust free cash flow, with a net cash ratio of 2.4 from 2019 to 2023, allowing for sustained high dividend payouts even during challenging years [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected dividend payout for the company in the coming years? - The company is projected to have a dividend payout potential of over 90% in 2024-2025 and possibly exceeding 100% in subsequent years, supported by strong free cash flow [2][8] Question: How does the company plan to address the challenges in coal transportation? - The company is focusing on the transition to multi-modal logistics, which is expected to enhance profitability and adapt to changing market conditions [11] Question: What are the growth prospects for the company's new energy segment? - The company anticipates adding 1 GW of new energy capacity annually from 2024 to 2035, leveraging the tight power supply and demand in Guangxi [6][8]