行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 16 日 十五五新型能源体系建设出台 欧亚 气价小幅回落 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(26/03/09~26/03/13) 本期投资提示： 风险提示：天然气价格高波动风险、国内顺价机制落地情况不及预期风险、新能源发电业务环境价值兑 现风险、电价下降风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 电力：十五五规划纲要新型能源体系建设，风光水核多能并举。新华社受权于 13 日全文播发《中华人 民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要》。关于新型能源体系建设，十五五加力建设新型 能源基础设施。推进非化石能源安全可靠有序替代化石能源，坚持风光水核等多能 ...

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 16 日 十五五新型能源体系建设出台 欧亚 气价小幅回落 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(26/03/09~26/03/13) 本期投资提示： 风险提示：天然气价格高波动风险、国内顺价机制落地情况不及预期风险、新能源发电业务环境价值兑 现风险、电价下降风险。 ⚫ 电力：十五五规划纲要新型能源体系建设，风光水核多能并举。新华社受权于 13 日全文播发《中华人 民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要》。关于新型能源体系建设，十五五加力建设新型 能源基础设施。推进非化石能源安全可靠有序替代化石能源，坚持风光水核等多能并举，实施非化石能 源十年倍增行动。对于核电、海 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - China announced its participation in the "Triple Nuclear Energy Declaration" on March 10, reaffirming its long-term nuclear power development strategy. As a major nuclear power country, China is expected to be a key contributor to the global nuclear power capacity expansion target, with an anticipated approval pace of 8-10 new nuclear units annually, ensuring a high certainty of a prolonged favorable cycle for the nuclear power industry [2][6] - The nuclear power sector is experiencing improvements in both volume and price. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the active and orderly advancement of coastal nuclear power construction, which, along with the declaration, confirms the long-term development path for nuclear power. The expected reforms in the nuclear power pricing mechanism may provide opportunities for stable cash flow and discounted value, reinforcing the core investment logic [11] Summary by Sections Nuclear Power Development - China aims to increase its operational nuclear power units from 49 to 134 by 2050, with a total capacity target of approximately 153 million kilowatts. By the end of 2025, China is projected to have 112 operational, under-construction, and approved nuclear units with a total capacity of 126 million kilowatts, indicating a conservative approval pace of only 22 new units over the next 20 years [6] - Globally, the target is to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050, requiring an average annual installation of 31.3 million kilowatts, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.45% [6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Huaneng International, Datang Power, Guodian Power, Huadian International, China Power, and Huaneng Power for traditional coal-fired operations. For hydropower, focus on Yangtze Power, Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Huaneng Hydropower. In the renewable energy sector, consider Longyuan Power, New天 Green Energy, China Nuclear Power, and Zhongmin Energy [11][15][16][17][19]

公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 十五五目标明确，强调电力市场改革 公用事业行业周报（2026.03.09-2026.03.13） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国家/地区 中国 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 15 日 孙辉贤 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 再度强调价格改革，算电协同助发展：公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.03.02- 2026.03.06） 2026-03-08 低位实物资产，宏观交易催化价值重估： 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.02.23- 2026.02.27） 2026-03-01 明确时间表，强调电力资源多维价值：公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.02.09- 2026.02.13） 2026-02-23 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 看好（维持） ⚫ 明确"十五五"能源领域建设具体目标，继续强调电力市场化改革。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the utility sector, indicating it is a worthwhile asset for investment [6][3]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes specific targets for the energy sector, including a 17% reduction in carbon emissions and a 25% share of non-fossil energy consumption by the end of the plan [6][3]. - The report highlights the ongoing reform of the electricity market, aiming for a unified national electricity market by 2030 and a market-based pricing mechanism for various energy sources [6][3]. - The utility sector has shown a recovery, with the Shenwan Utility Index rising by 3.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.9 percentage points [6][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests a positive outlook for the utility sector, driven by the restructuring of international order and the need for further market reforms to accommodate high proportions of renewable energy [6][3]. - Specific recommendations include: - Thermal Power: Expected improvement in dividend capacity and willingness, with suggested stocks including Jiantou Energy, Huadian International, Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Waneng Power [6][3]. - Gas: Beneficiaries of high global gas prices include upstream gas assets, with related stocks being Shouhua Gas and Xintian Gas [6][3]. - Hydropower: Recommended to invest in quality hydropower assets, with stocks like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [6][3]. - Nuclear Power: Strong long-term growth potential, with China General Nuclear Power as a related stock [6][3]. - Wind and Solar: Anticipated growth under carbon neutrality expectations, with a focus on leading companies in the sector [6][3]. Industry Dynamics - Electricity prices in Guangdong and Shanxi have seen significant year-on-year declines, with Guangdong's average price down by 13.8% and Shanxi's by 25.0% [9][10]. - Domestic coal prices have decreased, while port inventories have increased, indicating a shift in supply dynamics [13][22]. - International gas prices remain high, influenced by geopolitical tensions, with LNG prices in China rising significantly [25][27]. Market Performance - The utility sector has outperformed the broader market indices, with notable weekly gains across various sub-sectors, particularly wind and solar [38][40]. - Individual stock performances show significant increases for companies like Huadian Energy and Xiexin Energy, while some companies faced declines [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the clean energy sector, particularly focusing on the growth of installed capacity and the rationalization of electricity pricing mechanisms [2][5][24]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the tenfold increase in non-fossil energy over the next decade, with significant growth expected in clean energy installations. The establishment of a unified national electricity market is anticipated to enhance the flexibility and reliability of various power sources [2][5][9]. - The report highlights the importance of developing green hydrogen and green fuels, which are expected to experience explosive demand, contributing to energy security and the promotion of new energy policies [2][5][9]. - The report outlines specific quantitative targets for energy installations, including 100 million kilowatts of pumped storage, offshore wind, and nuclear power by 2030, laying a solid foundation for achieving carbon peak and non-fossil energy doubling by 2035 [5][19][24]. Summary by Sections Non-fossil Energy Tenfold Increase - The report indicates a shift from energy consumption control to carbon emission control, with a focus on hydrogen and green fuels as emerging energy sources. This transition aims to address challenges in renewable energy consumption and enhance energy security [9][10]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" sets ambitious targets for renewable energy installations, predicting that by 2035, total installed capacity for non-fossil energy will reach 4.83 billion kilowatts, representing a 105% increase from 2025 [19][24]. National Unified Electricity Market - The report discusses the ongoing efforts to establish a national unified electricity market, with a target to complete this by 2030. The market's design will focus on breaking local protectionism and enhancing competition [24][25][26]. - By 2025, the market share of electricity transactions is expected to reach 64%, with significant growth in both inter-provincial and cross-regional electricity transactions [30][31]. Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecasts - The report suggests focusing on companies in the thermal power sector, such as Huaneng International and Guodian Power, as well as in the hydropower sector, including Yangtze Power and China Power Investment [2][5]. - The report anticipates that the clean energy sector will continue to be the main contributor to new installations, with an average annual increase of 20-30 million kilowatts during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utilities and environmental protection sectors [1][5][7]. Core Insights - The 2026 government work report and the "14th Five-Year Plan" outline a push towards a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system, aiming for a total energy production capacity of 5.8 billion tons of standard coal by 2026 [1][14]. - The report highlights the importance of integrating renewable energy sources and emphasizes the need for a comprehensive green transition [1][14]. - The eight major computing power hubs are identified as key areas for direct green electricity connections, driven by national policies [2][15]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Coal and electricity prices are expected to decline simultaneously, maintaining reasonable profitability for thermal power companies, with recommendations for Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][24]. - Continuous government support for renewable energy is anticipated to stabilize profitability in the sector, recommending leading companies like Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][24]. - Nuclear power companies are expected to maintain stable profitability, with recommendations for China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [3][24]. - High-dividend hydropower stocks are highlighted for their defensive attributes, recommending Changjiang Power [3][24]. - The report suggests focusing on environmental protection opportunities in water and waste incineration sectors, recommending companies like China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings [3][25]. Market Performance - The public utilities index increased by 3.42% while the environmental index decreased by 1.41%, with public utilities ranking 3rd among 31 industry sectors [1][26]. - In the electricity sector, thermal power rose by 3.41%, hydropower by 4.73%, and renewable energy by 3.36% [1][27]. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Huadian International (600027.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and a PE ratio of 10.6 [7]. - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ) is also rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.75 in 2024 and a PE ratio of 23.5 [7]. - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and a PE ratio of 20.9 [7]. - Changjiang Power (600900.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 1.33 in 2024 and a PE ratio of 20.5 [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides various investment recommendations for specific sectors and companies within the energy and environmental sectors. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a dual control system for carbon emissions, focusing on low-carbon development and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources [5][8][9]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices, particularly affecting Europe and Asia, with significant price fluctuations observed [13][22][36]. - The report outlines several investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [11][12][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" introduces a dual control system for carbon emissions, aiming for carbon peak and neutrality, and emphasizes the development of non-fossil energy sources [5][8][9]. - Key tasks include accelerating the transition to green energy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and enhancing resource management [10]. 2. Gas Sector - The Middle East tensions have caused a rapid increase in gas prices, with significant weekly changes noted in various markets, such as a 116.35% increase in Northeast Asia LNG prices [13][22][36]. - The report highlights that the current geopolitical situation has led to a more abrupt price increase compared to previous cycles, with a potential for shorter duration [36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Thermal Power: Recommended companies include Datang Power A+H and JianTou Energy, particularly in regions with high computational demand [11][12]. - Hydropower: Companies like Guotou Power and Changjiang Power are favored due to expected improvements in financial metrics [12]. - Nuclear Power: Focus on China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, with a projected increase in approved units [12]. - Green Energy: Companies such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as new energy market rules enhance project stability [12]. - Natural Gas: Companies like Kunlun Energy and China Gas are highlighted for their potential in a favorable pricing environment [12][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental sectors, particularly in electricity and natural gas [3][46]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a dual control system for carbon emissions, focusing on low-carbon development and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources [10][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices in Europe and Asia, with significant price fluctuations observed [15][24]. - The report identifies several investment opportunities across various energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [13][14][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Implementation of Dual Control on Carbon Emissions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a comprehensive approach to achieving carbon neutrality, emphasizing the need for a robust incentive mechanism and specific tasks related to energy, industry, and lifestyle [10][11][12]. - Key tasks include accelerating the transition to renewable energy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and enhancing resource management [12]. 2. Natural Gas: Impact of Middle Eastern Conflicts on Prices - Natural gas prices have surged due to geopolitical tensions, with the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90/mmBtu and European prices experiencing significant increases [15][24]. - The report notes that the current supply constraints, particularly from Qatar, have led to a more pronounced price increase compared to previous cycles [42][44]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on LNG traders and unconventional gas resource companies that benefit from high price environments [44]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, electricity, and gas sectors have outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, while the environmental sector has lagged [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent regulatory updates include the implementation of new standards for ecological industrial parks and competitive pricing mechanisms for renewable energy projects in Zhejiang [56]. - Notable company announcements include significant investments in waste-to-energy projects and renewable energy initiatives [57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple companies in the energy sector, including 淮河能源, 国电电力, 长江电力, 川投能源, 京能清洁能源, 国投电力, 中国核电, 中广核电力, 陕西能源, 绿发电力, 华能蒙电, and 龙源电力 [7][9][10][11] Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to drive global oil prices significantly higher, which in turn will increase coal prices and subsequently lead to higher electricity prices in China [2][4] - A projected increase in the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal to around 750 RMB/ton will result in a 2.9% increase in wholesale electricity prices, translating to a 2.0%-2.2% rise in industrial electricity prices [2][3] - The demand for green electricity driven by the overseas expansion of token technology is anticipated to boost green certificate prices, which are currently only 9% of carbon prices. If green certificate prices align with carbon prices, wholesale electricity prices could increase by 15% [3][4] Summary by Sections Section: Coal and Electricity Price Impact - The report estimates that a 50 RMB/ton increase in coal prices will lead to a 2% rise in industrial electricity prices, with the current price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at 755 RMB/ton, up 65 RMB/ton (9.4% YoY) [2][4] - The report highlights that the current electricity supply-demand situation may limit the actual impact of price increases [2] Section: Recommendations for Companies - The report recommends investing in clean energy companies such as 绿发电力, 龙源电力 H, and 中广核电力, as well as coal-electricity integrated companies like 华能蒙电 and 陕西能源, which are expected to benefit from rising market electricity prices [4][10][11] - Specific companies highlighted for their strong performance and potential include 淮河能源, 国电电力, and 长江电力, with target prices set at 5.28 RMB, 6.87 RMB, and 36.55 RMB respectively [7][9][10]