| 股票名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | 主力资金流向 | 所属行) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 比亚迪 | 2.89 | 9.08亿元 | 汽车 | | 阳光电源 | 2.56 | 6.85亿元 | 电力设备 | | 云赛智联 | 9.98 | 6.18亿元 | 计算机 | | 宝丰能源 | 9.99 | 5.77亿元 | 基础化』 | | 优刻得-W | 19.99 | 4.95亿元 | 计算机 | | 长江电力 | 1.44 | 4.21亿元 | 必用事』 | | 中国神华 | 6.63 | 4.13亿元 | 煤炭 | | 江波龙 | 4.75 | 3.91亿元 | 电子 | | 汉得信息 | 8.49 | 3.56亿元 | 计算机 | | 北斗星通 | 6.91 | 2.79亿元 | 国 防军_ | | 中国汽中 | 1 U | つ 58/7 元 | 7日日 | | 工四四十 | IU | 4. JOTO JU | الاطالات | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 广汇能源 | 8.38 | 2.43亿元 | 石油石径 | | 网宿科技 | 3.2 ...

Core Insights - The report from Huatai Securities quantifies the impact of AI Token deployment on China's power industry, indicating that the transition to the reasoning era in AI could lead to a 10% elasticity in electricity demand, boosting green certificates and capacity prices [1][2]. Group 1: AI Industry Transition - The AI industry has shifted from a training era to a reasoning era, with a narrowing gap in computing power between domestic and overseas players. The Agent model is expected to drive exponential growth in Token consumption [1][2][9]. - If the global daily Token call volume reaches trillions, combined with a 30%-50% market share of domestic large models and 70%-90% local computing power deployment, Token deployment could increase China's electricity and power demand by 8% and 18%, respectively [1][2]. Group 2: Electricity Cost Dynamics - The importance of electricity costs in AI computing competition is increasing, with the share of electricity in unit Token costs rising significantly. In high-performance training versions of AIDC, electricity accounts for only 5%, but this doubles to 10% under reasoning models, and can reach 20%-30% with self-developed reasoning-grade chips [1][7][9]. - The report highlights that while the current electricity cost is only 10% of Token costs, this share is expected to continue rising as chip efficiency improves [9][18]. Group 3: Price Elasticity and Market Dynamics - The demand for Tokens is expected to enhance China's green electricity demand by 4%-33% from 2026 to 2030, benefiting undervalued green certificate prices. The low utilization rate of reasoning models is likely to increase capacity prices by 50-300 yuan per kilowatt during the same period, while the impact on electricity prices will be relatively delayed [2][8]. - The report contrasts with market views by emphasizing that the AI race has entered the reasoning era, and the elasticity of Token demand on green certificates and capacity prices is significantly higher than on electricity prices [2][9]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued stocks in the green and thermal power sectors, particularly those benefiting from renewable energy demand, such as Longyuan H, Green Development, and China Power [10]. - Companies like Jinko Power, Jingneng Clean Energy, and others are highlighted for their potential to benefit from capacity price elasticity [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The report suggests that the power supply in China will not become a bottleneck for computing power expansion, given the country's ample electricity supply. The industrial electricity price gap between China and the U.S. is expected to further highlight China's advantages in power supply [1][7][21]. - The transition to the reasoning era is anticipated to attract more infrastructure investments, as the sensitivity of electricity costs in AIDC is expected to double, making it a more critical factor in the competitive landscape [20][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the characteristics and rhythm of the green electricity market during the "policy year," highlighting the three phases of the 2021 green electricity market: pre-meeting, during the meeting, and post-meeting. It suggests that the green electricity sector will continue to be a focal point in the upcoming years, particularly in 2026, with a renewed focus on "green and low-carbon" initiatives [2][11] - The report identifies four key points to watch for the future of the green electricity sector, based on the experiences from 2021, including the impact of policy clarity, the role of leading companies, and the importance of financial reporting periods [11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The utility sector has shown a significant increase, with a 20.09% rise over the past year, and a 10.52% increase since the beginning of the year [31] - The report notes that the green electricity sector has been influenced by policy expectations and market sentiment, with notable stock performances from companies like Longyuan Power and Xinneng Green Energy [11][37] Policy and Market Dynamics - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the market, particularly how policy announcements during the "Two Sessions" can catalyze market movements. It highlights the importance of policy implementation and the timing of financial disclosures in shaping market trends [11] - The report anticipates that the green electricity sector will be a major theme in 2026, driven by technological advancements and policy support, particularly in the context of carbon neutrality goals [11] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation [11][14][15] - It also highlights the potential of renewable energy companies, particularly Longyuan Power and Xinneng Green Energy, which are expected to benefit from favorable policy changes and market conditions [11][17]

公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 再度强调价格改革，算电协同助发展 公用事业行业周报（2026.03.02-2026.03.06） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 08 日 孙辉贤 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 低位实物资产，宏观交易催化价值重估： | 2026-03-01 | | --- | --- | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.02.23- | | | 2026.02.27） | | | 明确时间表，强调电力资源多维价值：公 | 2026-02-23 | | 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.02.09- | | | 2026.02.13） | | | 电量有望稳健增长，新能源装机增速放 | 2026-02-08 | | 缓 ： 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.02.02- | | | 2026.02.06） | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公用事业行业深度跟踪 两会焦点：培育未来能源，首提算电协同 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-08 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 03/26 公用事业 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭鹏 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260514030003 | | SFC CE No. BNX688 | | 021-38003655 | | guopeng@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郝兆升 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524070001 | | 0755-82557403 | | haozhaosheng@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，郝兆升并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在 ...

公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 再度强调价格改革，算电协同助发展 公用事业行业周报（2026.03.02-2026.03.06） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 08 日 孙辉贤 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 低位实物资产，宏观交易催化价值重估： | 2026-03-01 | | --- | --- | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.02.23- | | | 2026.02.27） | | | 明确时间表，强调电力资源多维价值：公 | 2026-02-23 | | 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.02.09- | | | 2026.02.13） | | | 电量有望稳健增长，新能源装机增速放 | 2026-02-08 | | 缓 ： 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.02.02- | | | 2026.02.06） | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月03日 2026年03月05日 2026年03月06日 公用环保行业 2026 年 3 月投资策略 优于大市 生态环境法典即将提请审议，布局电算一体化上市公司梳理 公用事业 市场回顾：本月沪深 300 指数上涨 0.09%，公用事业指数上涨 4.54%，环 保指数上涨 7.73%，月相对收益率分别为 4.44%和 7.64%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 10 和第 4 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电上涨 7.57%；水电上涨 0.30%，新能源发电上涨 7.33%； 水务板块上涨 1.79%；燃气板块上涨 3.63%。 重要事件：生态环境法典即将提请审议。2026 年全国两会即将召开，多部 法律草案将提请审议，其中包括生态环境法典草案。该法典作为中国第 二部以"法典"命名的法律，涵盖污染防治、生态保护、绿色低碳发展 等方面。草案三审稿明确了监测机构备案管理、信用修复机制、秸秆焚 烧管理等内容，并加强了司法机关在生态环境保护中的作用。 优于大市·维持 证券分析师：黄秀杰 证券分析师：刘汉轩 021-61761029 010-88005198 hu ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility and power generation sectors [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the transition from the "training era" to the "inference era" in AI has significant implications for China's electricity demand, with potential elasticity exceeding 10% due to the global token consumption [2][5]. - It emphasizes the increasing importance of energy prices in the AI competition, suggesting that the cost of electricity will play a more critical role in the overall cost structure of AI models [3][5]. - The report recommends focusing on undervalued green electricity stocks and companies that will benefit from capacity price elasticity, particularly in the context of the anticipated slowdown in electricity supply growth starting in 2026 [1][6]. Summary by Sections Token Consumption and Electricity Demand - The report estimates that if the global daily token usage reaches trillions, the positive impact on China's electricity demand could be around 8% to 18% depending on the market share of domestic models [2]. - It notes that the elasticity of electricity demand due to token consumption is likely to be higher than that of electricity prices, particularly as the utilization rates of inference models are lower than those of training models [4][14]. Cost Structure and Electricity's Role - The analysis indicates that electricity costs currently account for about 5% to 10% of the total cost in AI data centers, with depreciation being the largest cost component [3][13]. - The report suggests that as the efficiency of domestic chips improves, the proportion of electricity costs in the total cost structure may continue to rise, potentially reaching 20% to 30% for self-developed chips [3][13]. Market Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks that are expected to benefit from the growth in renewable energy demand and capacity price elasticity, including companies like Longyuan Power, Huadian Power, and China Nuclear Power [6][8]. - It also highlights the potential for significant price increases in green certificates and capacity prices, which could benefit companies in the sector [4][6]. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The report points out that the market has not fully recognized the shift in AI competition dynamics, where the gap between domestic and foreign computing power is narrowing, and the demand for tokens is expected to grow exponentially [5][12]. - It emphasizes that while electricity prices are a factor, the core competitive advantage for domestic models lies in their cost-effectiveness and the ability to leverage local resources [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the power sector, particularly in regions benefiting from rapid computational development [1]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is abundant, with a projected installed capacity of 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The share of coal power is 40%, while solar and wind power capacities have increased by 35.4% and 22.9% respectively, leading to a significant rise in the proportion of clean energy [4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of coal power as a stabilizing force in the energy system, providing reliable support for high-energy-consuming digital infrastructure, which is crucial for the development of AI and the digital economy [9]. - Natural gas prices are expected to rise in 2025, with the US Henry Hub spot price projected at $3.51 per million British thermal units, a 59.7% increase year-on-year. This increase is attributed to geopolitical factors, extreme weather, and changes in supply-demand fundamentals [35][36]. - The report emphasizes the potential for green hydrogen projects in Yunnan, with subsidies of up to 13 RMB/kg, which could accelerate the development of the hydrogen and methanol industry [1]. Summary by Sections Power Sector - The installed capacity in China is projected to reach 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, with a significant increase in clean energy sources [4]. - The contribution of coal power to electricity generation remains substantial, accounting for 65% of the total output despite its 40% share in installed capacity [4][5]. - The "East Data West Calculation" project aims to enhance the computational network across various regions, leading to higher electricity consumption growth in provinces like Guizhou and Zhejiang [6][9]. Natural Gas - Global natural gas prices are expected to rise, with the US Henry Hub price forecasted to increase significantly due to various geopolitical and supply-demand factors [35][36]. - The report notes that the LNG supply in Northeast Asia is currently stable, but geopolitical tensions could lead to price volatility [30][36]. Environmental and Renewable Energy - The report discusses the potential for green hydrogen development in Yunnan, supported by government subsidies, which could enhance the economic viability of hydrogen projects [1]. - The report recommends several companies in the renewable energy sector, including new energy operators and integrated gas traders, as potential investment opportunities [1][36].