小商品城20240611

Company and Industry Overview * Company: Xiamen Small Commodities City (Xiamen) * Industry: Real estate, retail, and e-commerce Key Points Market Perception and Valuation * Market Perception: The market has a relatively comprehensive understanding of Xiamen's business, but there is still some discrepancy in expectations for its short-term and medium-term fundamentals. * Valuation: The report suggests a valuation of 15x for Xiamen's traditional market business based on a 5% rent increase, with potential for higher multiples if rent increases exceed 8-10%. * Dividend Yield: Xiamen has a strong dividend yield outlook, with a clear upward trend in dividend rates over the next few years. Business Segments * Traditional Market Business: * Rent: Expected to reach 12 billion RMB in 2024, with a potential for 10-11% annual growth in the future. * Lease Fee: Expected to exceed 10 billion RMB in 2024, with significant growth potential due to the opening of the new market in 2024. * Profit: Expected to reach 10-12 billion RMB in 2024, with a potential for further growth in the future. * New Business: * CG Platform: Expected to contribute 1 billion RMB in profit in 2024, with significant growth potential due to increased merchant numbers and higher service usage rates. * Payment Business: Expected to contribute 2-3 billion RMB in profit in 2024, with significant growth potential due to the expansion of its merchant base and transaction volume. Key Drivers * Rent Increase: Expected to drive significant growth in Xiamen's traditional market business. * New Market Opening: Expected to drive significant growth in Xiamen's lease fee and profit. * CG Platform Growth: Expected to drive significant growth in Xiamen's new business. * Payment Business Expansion: Expected to drive significant growth in Xiamen's new business. Risks * Economic Downturn: Could negatively impact Xiamen's traditional market business and new business. * Competition: Could negatively impact Xiamen's new business. * Regulatory Changes: Could negatively impact Xiamen's new business. Conclusion Xiamen is well-positioned for growth due to its strong traditional market business, promising new business segments, and strong dividend yield outlook. However, there are also potential risks that need to be monitored.