V i e w p o i n t | Adrienne Lui AC +852-2501-2753 adrienne.lui@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as onl ...

Please add me to your distribution list. | M | Dominic J Krummenacher Strategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Global Idea | | February 28, 2025 12:03 PM GMT | | | | G10 FX Strategy | Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ | | | Tariff Fatigue Setting In | | +44 20 7425-9781 | | | David S. Adams, CFA | | | | Strategist David.S.Adams@morganstanley.com | +44 20 7425-3518 | | Price action suggests to us G10 FX markets are starting to get | Wanting Low | | | | Strategist ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 28 February 2025 J P M O R G A N Fund Manager Radar Playing defense Jason Steed AC (61-2) 9003-8609 jason.h.steed@jpmorgan.com Dylan Adrian (61-2) 9003-7397 dylan.adrian@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited Performance of Love Index movers | STOCK | Jan-25 REL | 3M REL | | --- | --- | --- | | POSITIVE MOVERS | | | | ASX | -7.0% | -5.0% | | BXB | -1.7% | 2.9% | | COH | 5.7% | 3.9% | | EVN | 13.9% | 11.5% | | MQG | 4.1% | 3.1% | | TLC | -2.3% | -3.6% | | WTC | -2. ...

In the week to 26 February, EM bond funds had inflows, while outflows from EM equity funds continued. EM hard-currency bond funds had moderate inflows for a second consecutive week, driven by flows into non-ETF/actively managed funds. Overall flows for EM bond funds were also positive as a result, given the broadly flat flows for EM local-currency bond funds. Meanwhile, outflows from EM equity funds continued, driven by Asia-focused funds. In the EM Weekly: Dealing with uncertainty, 28 February 2025, we hig ...

28 February 2025 Global bond flows compass Fixed Income Favouring Asia local debt Global Chart of the week: Weak demand for NTN-F in January -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Foreign flows (USDm) LFT LTN NTN-F Source: Brazil government website, Bloomberg, HSBC Figure 1. Monthly trends in offshore bond flows of EM sovereign debt Note: *For period, see Table 1. Source: Central bank websites, HSBC Soumya Mohanty, C ...

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 28 February 2025 Duolingo Max & AI Product Cycle Supports Potential 2025 Bookings Growth Upside; Modeling 2H DAU Growth Re-Accel; Adj. EBITDA Margin Pick-Up in 2H; Reiterate OW & $410 ▲Price Target (Dec-25):$410.00 Prior (Dec-25):$400.00 DUOL shares traded down -7% post-close as the 2025 Bookings & Adj. EBITDA guide were modestly below high investor expectations. However, we're encouraged by DUOL's AI product cycle led by Max, which comprises ~5% of paid subscri ...

February 28, 2025 03:10 PM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific Weekly Monitor: Demand Seasonally Recovers Rebar consumption has improved for two weeks in a row. Base metals: Shanghai copper prices were down 0.8% WoW, while inventories decreased 0.4% WoW. Shanghai aluminum prices were down 1.1% WoW, while inventories were down 5.5% WoW. Key news of the week: Reuters – Trump orders new tariff probe into US copper imports under Section 232. Battery metals: Domestic industrial-grade lithium hydroxide and battery ...

Hong Kong 28 February 2025 Daily dose of HK & mainland China Real Estate Research Focus and Views on the News HK & mainland China Highlights of the day Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited michellekwok@hsbc.com.hk +852 2996 6918 Raymond Liu*, CFA Analyst, Asia Real Estate and Conglomerates The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited raymond.w.m.liu@hsbc.com.hk +852 2996 6743 Michelle Kwok* Real Estate Mainland China Research focus Su ...

February 28, 2025 10:51 AM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific Demand Tracker – February 28 Per 100NJZ, the work resumption rate of sampled construction projects was 64.6% in the fourth week after the holiday, 10.8% lower YoY. Production/Sales of industrial goods: Per CISA, in mid-Feb, average daily output of major steel mills was 2.151mnt, up 0.8% vs. early-Feb. Hubei Huangshi promotes off- peak cement production, and urged production based on approved capacity. Fubao reported that weekly production of lith ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Chinese economy and market outlook, particularly in the context of the upcoming "Two Sessions" in March 2025. Onshore clients from major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were consulted, including mutual funds, private equity funds, and asset managers from banks and insurance companies [1][2]. Core Insights 1. **Improved Sentiment on China’s Macro Outlook** Onshore clients have become slightly more optimistic about China's macroeconomic and market outlook due to recent developments in AI and the property sector, including home sales and prices in large cities [2][6]. 2. **Concerns About US Growth** There is heightened concern among clients regarding the US growth outlook, particularly due to the implications of Trump’s tariff and immigration policies, as well as issues surrounding US debt sustainability [7][9]. 3. **Low Expectations for "Two Sessions"** Onshore clients expressed low expectations for significant announcements during the upcoming "Two Sessions," particularly regarding fiscal measures and government bond issuance quotas [8][11]. 4. **Uncertainties in US-China Relations** The recent signing of the National Security Presidential Memorandum and the announcement of additional tariffs on Chinese goods have contributed to uncertainties in US-China relations, with clients expecting a more restrained response from China compared to previous years [9][12]. 5. **Monetary Policy Outlook** Clients believe that China's monetary policy has effectively tightened since the beginning of the year, despite a shift in the PBOC's stance to "moderately loose." There is a consensus that further liquidity injections will be necessary [13]. 6. **PPI Deflation Concerns** Onshore clients have lower expectations for PPI inflation, with many anticipating it may not turn positive until 2026 or later, citing overcapacity issues and the prolonged downturn in the property sector [14]. 7. **Differences Between Onshore and Offshore Perspectives** There are notable differences in how onshore and offshore investors view the Chinese economy, with onshore investors focusing more on PPI deflation and industrial policy, while offshore investors are more concerned with signals from the "Two Sessions" [15]. Additional Important Points - **Property Sector Recovery** Clients noted some recovery in the property sector, particularly in large cities, but acknowledged that lower-tier cities may continue to face challenges [6][7]. - **Government Bond Issuance Expectations** Market expectations for total government bond net issuance are in the range of RMB12-13 trillion, with some clients flagging risks of a smaller issuance quota than previously expected [11]. - **AI Investment Incentives** Local governments and corporates are increasingly incentivized to boost AI-related investments, reflecting a recovery in economic "animal spirits" [6]. - **RMB Exchange Rate Stability** Clients do not expect significant depreciation of the RMB against the USD, contrasting with sentiments from late last year [13]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and concerns raised during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current sentiment among onshore clients regarding the Chinese economy and its interaction with global factors.