shuinu9870 7 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Harlan Sur AC (1-415) 315-6700 harlan.sur@jpmorgan.com North America Equity Research 19 December 2024 J P M O R G A N "expert investors" or "institutional investors," as defined under Section 4A of the SFA. Recipients of this material in Singapore are to contact JPMSS or JPMCB Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the material. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equitie ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economic Perspectives** and the **Federal Reserve's monetary policy** outlook for 2024 and beyond [4][42]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Funds Rate Expectations**: - At the end of January, the market expected a reduction of 137 basis points (bps) in the funds rate for 2024. However, by April, this expectation dropped to just 28 bps following Q1 inflation data [5][18]. - The actual funds rate ended up being lower than the midpoint of these expectations, resulting in a realized cut of 100 bps by the FOMC [5][18]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Rate Cuts**: - From February to July, expectations for rate cuts remained below 100 bps, reflecting a more cautious market sentiment. The FOMC's actions exceeded market expectations, leading to a greater than anticipated reduction in the federal funds rate [13][19]. - By the end of September, the market adjusted expectations, adding nearly 100 bps back to the anticipated rate cuts due to a 50 bps cut announced in September and concerns about labor market slowdowns [19][20]. 3. **Future Projections**: - Looking into 2025, the market is pricing in slightly over one rate cut, indicating uncertainty about future monetary policy direction [13][22]. - Chair Powell emphasized that future cuts will be data-driven rather than based on current forecasts, highlighting the unpredictable nature of economic conditions [22][49]. 4. **Monetary Policy Uncertainty**: - The call noted that monetary policy uncertainty remains elevated, with Chair Powell referencing a 2018 Fed staff analysis suggesting that policy should adapt based on economic conditions, particularly regarding tariffs [22][34]. Additional Important Content - **Inflation and Labor Market**: The discussions highlighted the interplay between inflation data and labor market conditions, which are critical in shaping the Fed's monetary policy decisions [5][22]. - **Historical Context**: The call provided a historical perspective on how market expectations for rate cuts have fluctuated significantly over short periods, illustrating the volatility in economic forecasting [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and the broader economic implications for 2024 and beyond.

shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Solar Products Price Tracker – Week 51, 2024 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Polysilicon prices stayed stable WoW; N-type wafer prices edged down 1.8% WoW; N-type cell prices fell 1.8% WoW; Module prices were largely stable. Prices of solar films and EVA resin stayed flat WoW. POE resin prices increased 1.4% WoW. N-type wafer prices (182*210mm) dropped 1.8% WoW and P-type wafer prices were stable; N-type ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **global oil market**, focusing on supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and geopolitical influences affecting oil production and pricing. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Demand and Supply Forecasts**: - Total oil demand is projected to average **104.4 million barrels per day (mbd)** in 2025, with a slight increase from **104.1 mbd** in 2024 [10][91]. - Total oil supply is expected to reach **105.7 mbd** in 2025, indicating a surplus of **1.2 mbd** in the market [10][91]. 2. **Brent and WTI Price Projections**: - Brent crude oil is forecasted to average **$80 per barrel** in 2024, with expectations of a decline to **$73** in 2025 and further to **$61** in 2026 [40][69]. - WTI prices are projected to follow a similar trend, with an exit price of **$64** by the end of 2025 [69]. 3. **Geopolitical Factors**: - The incoming Trump administration's policies are expected to focus on maintaining low energy prices, potentially impacting oil supply from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia [100][101]. - There is a consensus that the administration may prioritize domestic oil production increases over international supply constraints [100][101]. 4. **US Oil Production Growth**: - US total oil liquids production is projected to increase by **750 kbd** in 2024, surpassing **20 mbd** [71]. - A further increase of **670 kbd** is expected in 2025, primarily driven by the Permian Basin and Gulf of Mexico projects [71][78]. 5. **Brazilian Oil Production**: - Brazilian crude and condensate production is anticipated to rebound in 2025, with new FPSO units expected to add **590 kbd** of capacity [78]. - The market has expressed skepticism regarding the projected growth, with consensus estimates being more conservative [78]. 6. **OPEC's Role**: - OPEC's production levels are expected to remain stable, with no significant unwinding of cuts anticipated as long as market balances indicate potential weakness [84][86]. - Recent OPEC meetings have shifted expectations towards tighter global oil balances, reducing the likelihood of a price collapse [84]. Other Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: There is a notable divergence in opinions regarding oil price forecasts among analysts, with some projecting prices as low as **$60** and others as high as **$95** for 2025 [41]. - **Inventory Trends**: OECD oil inventories have seen a decline of approximately **17 million barrels** year-to-date, indicating a tighter market despite the projected supply surplus [70]. - **Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)**: NGL production is expected to contribute an additional **310 kbd** to overall liquids growth in 2025, highlighting its importance in the US oil landscape [55]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global oil market.

M Foundation Potential Higher US Tariff Could Be (Partly) Offset by Major Domestic Cycles Bottoming or Lead to Further Rationalization of Industrial Investment 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 Milder scenario: only 50%/60% tariff on imports from China According to our economist' assessment, potential 50%/60% tariff on imports from China could result in milder real GDP impact than in the 2018-19 episode (~1ppt). In our view, the negative impact from tariff incr ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Life Insurance** sector in **North America** with a positive outlook for 2025 due to a favorable macro environment, including a steepening yield curve and an aging population [10][15][72]. Key Points 2025 Outlook - Expected **13% EPS growth** and **15% return on equity** for life insurers in 2025, supported by stable equity markets and mortality aligning with expectations [10][15]. - Capital return is projected to remain robust, with **6.1% buyback accretion**, an increase from **5.4% in 2024** [10][15]. Major Themes Influencing Life Insurance Stocks 1. **Steepening Yield Curve**: Anticipated rate cuts are expected to steepen the yield curve, positively impacting life insurance earnings [10][15][116]. 2. **Demographic Trends**: An aging population is expected to drive demand for life insurance products [10][15]. 3. **Variable Investment Income**: This remains a wildcard for earnings, with potential improvements expected from capital markets activity and private market valuations [20][126]. Group Insurance Performance - Group insurance is expected to perform strongly in 2025, particularly in the dental and disability segments, while group life may face headwinds due to normalizing mortality rates [10][72]. - **Unum** is anticipated to benefit significantly from stable group life and supportive disability segments [72]. Annuity Market Dynamics - Strong demand for annuity products is expected to continue, driven by an aging population and stable macro conditions [10][45]. - Annuity sales reached historical records in 2024, with a **23% YoY growth** compared to **21% in 2023** [139]. - Companies like **Equitable** and **Corebridge** are well-positioned to gain market share due to their strong capital positions and vertical integration [10][45]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for **Registered Index-Linked Annuities (RILA)** has intensified, with market share now concentrated among the top ten carriers [139]. - Companies with robust distribution networks and investment management capabilities are expected to perform better in the RILA space [10][45]. Variable Investment Income Challenges - Variable investment income has been underperforming due to muted realizations in private equity and lower valuations in real estate [142][147]. - While there are signs of improvement, a full recovery in variable investment income is not expected until 2026 [148]. Dental and Disability Insurance - The dental insurance market is expected to see a better underwriting environment due to annual re-pricing and reduced inflation pressure [144]. - Favorable performance in disability insurance is anticipated to continue, driven by stable pricing and claims experience [144]. Conclusion - The life insurance sector is poised for growth in 2025, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions, demographic trends, and strong demand for annuity products. However, challenges remain in variable investment income and competitive pressures in the annuity market. Companies like **Unum**, **Equitable**, and **Corebridge** are expected to be key beneficiaries in this evolving landscape [10][72][139].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) - **Industry**: Semiconductors, specifically focusing on DRAM and NAND memory products Key Points and Arguments 1. **Quarterly Performance**: MU reported an inline quarter with a 4 cents EPS beat, driven by robust DRAM bit shipments and high average selling price (ASP) growth, which offset weaker NAND bit shipments and pricing [5][5][5] 2. **Datacenter Revenue Growth**: Datacenter revenue mix, including High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), server DRAM, and enterprise SSD, grew by 40% sequentially, now comprising over 50% of total revenues, indicating strong demand driven by AI [5][5][5] 3. **Guidance Concerns**: The guidance for February quarter was poor across all metrics, primarily due to excess inventory in NAND and sluggish demand in consumer markets such as PCs and smartphones [5][5][5] 4. **DRAM Pricing Outlook**: Management expressed optimism that blended average DRAM pricing will increase sequentially in the February quarter due to strength in HBM and server DRAM demand [5][5][5] 5. **Consumer Market Recovery**: Management believes that consumer market issues will resolve in the upcoming quarter, citing a decrease in customer inventories in the fourth quarter [5][5][5] 6. **Gross Margin Expectations**: Gross margin is expected to decline by only 100 basis points, primarily due to NAND pricing pressures [5][5][5] 7. **Long-term Outlook**: Management raised the HBM market forecast for 2025 and beyond, expecting HBM market share to be in line or better than overall DRAM market share by the second half of 2025 [5][5][5] 8. **Investor Sentiment**: Some investors remain skeptical about the recovery, particularly in NAND, and were surprised by the unchanged capital expenditure for 2025 [5][5][5] 9. **Price Target Adjustment**: Analyst Harlan Sur lowered the earnings-based price target by approximately 20% to $145, while remaining confident that investors will soon start to factor in a recovery in the second half of 2025 [5][5][5] Additional Insights 1. **Asian Market Perspective**: Jay Kwon noted that MU's DRAM bit shipment growth was stronger than that of its Asian peers, indicating market share gains [18][18][18] 2. **NAND Pricing Concerns**: Kwon warned that NAND pricing might still be too high, potentially leading to a prolonged recovery period [18][18][18] 3. **Competitive Landscape**: MU's expansion of its customer base is expected to increase competition with Samsung, particularly in the eSSD market [18][18][18] 4. **Media Speculation**: Management did not adequately address media speculation regarding CXMT's success in DDR5 and LPDDR5, which some analysts believe is less of a threat [18][18][18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities facing Micron Technology in the semiconductor industry.

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 19 December 2024 | 1:46PM JST shuinu9870 Semiconductor memory major Micron Technology (MU, covered by our US semiconductor/SPE analyst, Toshiya Hari) released 1Q8/25 (September-November) 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： results and held a conference call early morning on December 19 (Japan time). Below, we summarize the key points, centering on current business conditions and the capex outlook, and di ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 First Read Press conference at 15:30 JST Market focus should be how strongly Governor Ueda will hint at the next rate hike in January at the press conference. We think he will NOT commit to raise the policy rate at this stage because unexpected developments after Mr. Trump's inauguration as US President on 20 January cannot be ruled out, but he may say that a rate hike is coming soon based on their current economy and inflation o ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： M Update shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： the x-date have the potential to create significant risks across many markets. These Eliminating the debt ceiling would not authorize new spending, nor would it cost shuinu9870 Indeed, these risks were emphasized by Treasury Secretary Yellen in a letter to the US 2 Although the two policy debates can be ...