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Risk Reward - Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK) finitiv, the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Quintile | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of China Property Research Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Property** sector, highlighting trends and forecasts for the real estate market in China for 2024 and beyond [2][10]. Key Points and Arguments Sales and Market Trends - **Sales Resilience**: November sales were more resilient than expected, with December likely to show a mild "tail bounce" in Tier 1 and good Tier 2 cities, but a potential cooling in 1Q25 [2][3]. - **Sales Forecast**: Estimated sales for December are around **Rmb 260 billion**, concluding FY24 at **-32% YoY** [53]. - **Completion and Starts**: November saw a **39% decline** in completions, the sharpest year-to-date decline, while starts remained low at **-26.8% YoY** [4][3]. Market Dynamics - **Destocking Cycle**: A property destocking cycle is expected to continue into **2025-2027**, with price stabilization anticipated [2][3]. - **New Home Market Size**: New starts and land sales are at their lowest since **2005**, indicating further downside for the new home market size [2][3]. - **Inventory Levels**: The national completed but unsold residential inventory reached **377 million sqm** by November 2024 [26]. Policy and Economic Environment - **Policy Vacuum**: The property sector may underperform due to a policy vacuum until March NPC, with local execution of new policies pending [3][17]. - **Monetary Limitations**: There are expected monetary limitations on RMB FX and capital outflow due to the upcoming US presidential inauguration in January 2025 [3]. - **Proactive Fiscal Policy**: A proactive fiscal policy stance was noted at the December Politburo/CEWC, indicating a move towards stabilizing the property market [17]. Price Trends - **Price Stabilization**: Property prices in key cities are expected to stabilize, but this depends on inventory levels, which currently stand at **28 months** for new homes [17]. - **Price Index Changes**: The NBS monthly primary price index for 70 key cities showed a **-6.1% YoY** change in November 2024 [14]. Investment Opportunities - **Top Picks**: Recommended stocks include **Beike**, **CRL**, and **Greentown**, which are viewed as having strong fundamentals despite the overall market challenges [3][17]. Macro Economic Indicators - **New Loans and TSF**: November new loans were **Rmb 580 billion**, significantly below expectations, indicating weak household and corporate demand [4]. - **Retail Sales**: Retail sales increased by **3.0%** in November, down from **4.8%** in October, reflecting a cooling consumer sentiment [4]. Additional Important Insights - **Land Sales**: Land sales in November showed a **-9% YoY** decline in GFA and a **+28% YoY** increase in value, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report includes various valuation metrics for listed property companies, indicating significant discounts in NAV and P/E ratios across the sector [34]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property sector, highlighting both challenges and potential investment opportunities.

Key Points **1. Earnings Growth and Valuation** * **Earnings Growth Convergence**: The report expects continued earnings broadening for 2025, with easier compares for economically sensitive sectors due to lagging effects of weaker production data over the past year. The S&P 500 EPS growth is projected at 10% in 2025, with a base case target of $6500 for the S&P 500 by year-end 2025. * **Valuation**: The report uses a proprietary fair value model, which accounts for the forces currently at work in the US equity markets. The fair value model suggests a range of 19.4-24.3x for the S&P 500 trailing P/E. * **Sector Recommendations**: The report provides sector and industry group recommendations for Q4, with overweight positions in Media & Entertainment, Transportation, Telecommunications Services, Energy, and Insurance, and underweight positions in Automobiles & Components, Commercial & Professional Services, Software & Services, and Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail. **2. Market Outlook and Risks** * **Market Outlook**: The report expects a volatile bull market in 2025, with a base case target of 6500 for the S&P 500. The report highlights the importance of thematic fundamental tailwinds, such as AI and Trump policy, in identifying single stock and tactical alpha opportunities. * **Risks**: The report identifies several risks, including high trailing P/E, investor complacency, potential disruptions from changes in the rate and/or economic data trends, and geopolitical strife. **3. Sector Analysis** * **Communication Services**: The report expects strong earnings growth in the Communication Services sector, driven by the "Magnificent 7" companies. * **Consumer Discretionary**: The report expects moderate earnings growth in the Consumer Discretionary sector, with a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and pricing power. * **Consumer Staples**: The report expects modest earnings growth in the Consumer Staples sector, with a focus on companies with strong balance sheets and operational efficiency. * **Energy**: The report expects strong earnings growth in the Energy sector, driven by higher commodity prices and improved production efficiency. * **Financials**: The report expects moderate earnings growth in the Financials sector, with a focus on companies with strong capital allocation and growth prospects. **4. Other Important Points** * **Productivity**: The report highlights the importance of productivity improvement in driving earnings growth and valuation. * **Buybacks**: The report notes the ongoing trend of buybacks, which has contributed to the de-equitization of the market. * **Capex**: The report expects continued strong capital expenditures, which should support future earnings growth. * **Quality Metrics**: The report provides quality metrics for various market cap and style buckets, highlighting the importance of quality in investment decisions. **5. Conclusion** The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the US equity market outlook for 2025, with a focus on earnings growth, valuation, and sector analysis. The report highlights several risks and opportunities, and provides valuable insights for investors.

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the economic outlook for Hong Kong, particularly in the context of US-China trade tensions and China's deflationary pressures [6][7]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth Projections - Real GDP growth in Hong Kong is expected to decline to **2.2% YoY in 2025** and **1.8% YoY in 2026**, down from **2.5% YoY in 2024** [7][8]. - The decline is attributed to rising US-China trade tensions and increased price competitiveness from Mainland China, which will negatively impact investment and consumption [6][7]. Trade Tensions and Tariffs - The US is anticipated to implement tariff hikes on Chinese goods in phases over 2025-26, which may cap investment growth in Hong Kong due to increased geopolitical uncertainties [7][19]. - The direct impact of these tariffs on Hong Kong's economy is expected to be manageable, as US-China trade accounts for only **6% of Hong Kong's total re-export business**, down from **9% in 2017** [19][54]. Inflation and Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to soften to **1.6% YoY in 2025** and **1.2% YoY in 2026**, compared to **1.9% YoY in 2024** [8][29]. - This disinflation trend is driven by weaker domestic retail demand and lower prices from Mainland China, although rising residential rental prices due to immigration may offset some of this effect [8][29]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Constraints - Limited room for counter-cyclical easing is noted, with fiscal reserves declining sharply from **HK$1.1 trillion** in early 2018 to **HK$0.6 trillion** today [9][44]. - The fiscal deficit for FY2024-25 is expected to reach **HK$100 billion**, more than double the initial budget estimate [44][46]. Risks and Scenarios - Key risks include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Beijing's stimulus measures, and geopolitical risks [11][48]. - In a downside scenario, higher market interest rates and universal US tariffs could lead to weaker investment activity and lower asset prices in Hong Kong [12][48]. - Conversely, an upside scenario could see consumption-driven growth in China benefiting Hong Kong's trade, as Mainland China accounts for **56% of the city's goods exports** and **~80% of inbound tourists** [14][48]. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Trends - FDI to Hong Kong has seen a significant decline, dropping by approximately **20 percentage points of GDP** during the 2018-19 period, with a notable decrease in the number of US companies establishing regional headquarters in Hong Kong [53][54]. Housing Market Dynamics - The effective new mortgage rate in Hong Kong is expected to drop to **3.25% by the end of 2025**, which may positively impact the housing market despite high unsold inventory [37][38]. - Residential housing prices are projected to decline by another **5% in the first half of 2025**, followed by a potential rebound in the second half [37][38]. Additional Important Insights - The HKMA is well-positioned to defend the HKD peg, with liquid USD assets maintained at **1.1 times** its liquid HKD liabilities, indicating sufficient cover for potential outflows [10][11]. - The strategic importance of the Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS) is emphasized, as it facilitates free capital flows and mitigates financial volatility [57]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Hong Kong's economic outlook, highlighting the interplay between external trade dynamics, domestic economic conditions, and policy constraints.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 16 December 2024 Global Research China Economic Perspectives Mixed growth momentum in November Economics China Growth momentum showed a mixed picture in November After better-than-expected growth momentum in October, China had a mixed growth picture in November. Owing to major policy easing in the past several months, property sales growth rebounded to a positive YoY reading with its seasonally adjusted level improving further sequentially, lifting retail sales of related goo ...

This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. backdrop). Our top-picks for China consumer industry: Haier, Midea, YUMC, Anta, Tsingtao (H) and CRB. China Nov offline retail sales were up 6.1% yoy, while online went down by 2.7% yoy, due to the early start ...

16 Dec 2024 00:28:37 ET │ 10 pages Activity Improvement Stalls into Year-End CITI'S TAKE Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsis ...

Company and Industry Overview * **Company**: Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) * **Industry**: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology Key Points and Arguments 1. **2024 Financial Guidance Reaffirmed**: Pfizer reaffirmed its full-year 2024 financial guidance, expecting revenues in the range of $61 billion to $64 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $2.75 to $2.95 [16]. 2. **2025 Financial Guidance**: Pfizer provided guidance for 2025, anticipating revenues in the range of $61 billion to $64 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $2.80 to $3.00 per share [19]. 3. **Revenue Growth**: Pfizer expects operational revenue growth of approximately flat to up 5% in 2025, driven by the growth of its oncology and non-COVID vaccine products [19]. 4. **Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share Growth**: Pfizer expects adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow operationally by approximately 10% to 18% in 2025, reflecting an operating margin expansion of over 250 basis points versus 2024 [19]. 5. **COVID-19 Products**: Pfizer expects its COVID-19 products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, to contribute to stable revenue in 2025, with both maintaining their market shares with stable pricing [20]. 6. **Oncology**: Pfizer expects its oncology products, such as Padcev, Lorbrena, and Ibrance, to contribute significantly to growth in the later part of the decade [24]. 7. **Non-COVID Vaccine Products**: Pfizer expects its non-COVID vaccine products, such as Abrysvo and Prevnar, to remain key contributors to its business [22]. 8. **Cost Reduction**: Pfizer achieved its goal of $4 billion in net cost savings by the end of 2024 and expects an additional $500 million in net cost savings in 2025 [11]. 9. **Capital Allocation**: Pfizer remains committed to maintaining and growing its dividend, investing in its business, and de-leveraging its balance sheet [31]. Other Important Content * **Seagen Acquisition**: Pfizer highlighted the successful integration of Seagen and the positive impact of the acquisition on its oncology portfolio [8]. * **Pipeline**: Pfizer discussed its robust pipeline, including several Phase 3 studies and potential new products in various therapeutic areas [9]. * **R&D Leadership**: Pfizer announced the appointment of Dr. Chris Boshoff as its Chief Scientific Officer and President of R&D [9]. * **Capital Return**: Pfizer plans to continue monetizing its stake in Haleon over time, considering its cash flow requirements and future market conditions [31]. * **Drug Pricing**: Pfizer discussed the impact of the IRA Medicare Part D redesign on its revenue and its commitment to transparency and passing savings to patients [53].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: Apollo Global Management - **Industry**: Private Equity Core Points and Arguments 1. **Succession Planning**: Apollo Global Management's CEO Marc Rowan has not established a clear succession plan, which is critical for private equity firms. This has raised concerns about the firm's readiness for leadership transition in the event of his departure [4][4][4] 2. **Asset Management Growth**: Under Rowan's leadership, Apollo has grown to manage over $700 billion in assets and is positioning itself as a significant lender in the market [4][4][4] 3. **Rowan's Tenure**: Initially expected to serve for five years, Rowan's tenure may extend as he enjoys his role. His potential candidacy for Treasury Secretary under President-elect Trump highlighted the need for a succession plan [4][4][4] 4. **Management Team Depth**: Rowan emphasized the strength of Apollo's management team in response to questions about succession, indicating that the firm has capable leaders who could step up [4][4][4] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment**: There is a growing optimism among CEOs of major companies regarding the economy, which could influence investment strategies and market dynamics [2][2][2] 2. **Activist Investor Influence**: Honeywell is considering separating its aerospace business following pressure from activist investor Elliott, indicating a trend of corporate restructuring in response to shareholder demands [2][2][2] 3. **Union Activities**: Amazon union members at a third U.S. facility have voted to authorize a strike, reflecting ongoing tensions in labor relations within major corporations [2][2][2] 4. **Consumer Behavior**: There is a notable shift in consumer purchasing behavior due to anticipated price increases from tariffs, with many Americans stockpiling goods [17][17][17] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on Apollo Global Management's leadership dynamics and broader market trends that could impact investment strategies.