BeOne Medicines (BGNE) Update / Briefing December 16, 2024 08:30 AM ET Speaker0 Good day, everyone. Welcome to Beijing's Investor Webcast, highlighting key data from the ASH and the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium meetings. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session on Beijing's R and D programs and the presented data. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to the company. Speaker1 Hello, and welc ...

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Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Americas Transportation** sector, particularly the **rail**, **LTL (Less Than Truckload)**, and **parcel** segments, with an outlook for **2025** indicating potential recovery in freight volumes and operational leverage opportunities [7][9][17]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Freight Volume Recovery**: The sector has been in a freight recession for approximately **25 months**, but signs suggest a potential bottoming out, with expectations for lower interest rates and a need to restock inventories after a prolonged period of de-stocking [10][11]. 2. **Manufacturing Impact**: The recovery in transportation is closely tied to manufacturing output, with projections indicating a **3%** increase in tonnage for **2025/2026** and **4.5%** growth for Ground Commercial from **1.7%** [25][27]. 3. **LTL Segment Growth**: The LTL segment is expected to see an **8%** increase in volume for **ODFL**, **5%** for **SAIA**, and **9%** for **KNX** in **2026** [30]. 4. **Stock Performance**: The transport sector has underperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date, with a **7%** increase compared to the S&P's **28%**. However, post-election, the sector has shown strength, with trucking up **5%** and LTL up **6%** [39][42]. 5. **Valuation Concerns**: There are concerns that earnings recovery potential is already factored into certain transport subsectors, with truckload requiring a **40%** plus upside to grow into current multiples [58][67]. 6. **Rail Sector Outlook**: The rail sector is projected to see **4%** growth in carloads for **2025/2026**, with a focus on higher-margin industrial areas [99][110]. 7. **Parcel Sector Dynamics**: UPS and FedEx are facing challenges with B2B volumes, which are critical for margin improvement. UPS is expected to implement revenue actions to improve yields, while FedEx is focused on cost takeout initiatives [186][188][206]. Additional Important Insights - **Economic Policies**: Potential changes in policies from Washington could impact freight volumes, with tariffs possibly increasing inflation and affecting production and wage rates [70][74]. - **Capacity Normalization**: The trucking industry is seeing a normalization of carrier capacity, but the overall carrier base remains elevated, which may hinder sharp increases in trucking rates [71][72]. - **Service Improvements**: Rail service improvements and headcount increases are seen as positive, but the real test will be maintaining these gains as volume growth returns [74][89]. - **Long-term Rail Potential**: The rail sector has significant long-term potential for share gains from trucking, particularly as service improvements make rail more attractive for shippers [126][141]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the potential recovery in the transportation sector and the factors influencing it.

Summary of Healthcare Facilities & Managed Care Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Healthcare Facilities and Managed Care industry, particularly discussing the outlook for 2025 and the implications of recent policy changes and market dynamics [10][11][12]. Key Points and Arguments 1. HCA's Positive Outlook for 2025 - HCA anticipates elevated volume growth of 2-4% in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA growth expected to be near or slightly above the upper end of its long-term growth range of 4-6% [10][10][10]. - The company noted improvements in physician fees compared to the previous year, although some pressure remains in specific markets [10][10][10]. 2. ACA Enhanced Subsidies and Political Landscape - Health policy consulting firm Marwood predicts that the ACA Enhanced Subsidies will expire at the end of 2025, which could significantly impact the healthcare landscape [11][11][11]. - There is ongoing lobbying to extend these subsidies, with Democrats prioritizing this issue, while House Republicans show no interest in extension [11][11][11]. 3. Medicaid Policy Changes - Potential changes to Medicaid are expected to be debated, including proposals for block grants and funding limits, but there is no consensus on reforms [12][12][12]. - The expiration of exchange subsidies may lead Congress to hesitate on significant Medicaid changes, especially concerning rural hospitals [12][12][12]. 4. ACHC's Volume Trends - ACHC reported a moderation in volume growth to 3% from previous expectations of 5% and is cautious about providing updated outlooks until more data is available [23][23][23]. - The company disputed a recent sell-side survey indicating declining confidence from referral sources, asserting that outreach efforts are well-received [23][23][23]. 5. SGRY's Growth Confidence - SGRY management expressed confidence in achieving long-term EBITDA growth of 4-6%, driven by organic growth, M&A, and margin improvements [24][24][24]. - The company plans to clarify cash flow guidance in future communications [24][24][24]. 6. Professional Fees Pressure - Hospital companies reported ongoing pressure from professional fees, particularly from radiologists, which are expected to outpace revenue growth in 2025 [25][25][25]. - Previous pressures from hospitalists and anesthesiologists are showing signs of improvement [25][25][25]. 7. SCI's 2025 Outlook - SCI reiterated its EPS growth target of 8-12% for 2025, assuming stable funeral volumes and lower interest expenses [26][26][26]. - The company expects to return to its normal acquisition spending range of $75 - $125 million in 2025 [26][26][26]. 8. Medicare Advantage Rate Notice - Marwood anticipates a preliminary Medicare Advantage rate notice in early February, projecting a net update of approximately 1.5% [34][34][34]. - This update is expected to reflect underlying cost trends of 4-5% [34][34][34]. 9. Private Equity Activity - An industry expert noted a potential increase in IPO activity and private equity transactions, with a shift in acceptable leverage levels for public companies [35][35][35]. - Concerns about public float and leverage are significant discussions among private equity participants [35][35][35]. 10. Uncertainty Around DOGE Initiative - There is considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) on Medicaid and Medicare funding [36][36][36]. - The focus may be on restructuring redundant public health departments, but the resources and mechanisms available to DOGE remain unclear [36][36][36]. Additional Important Insights - Risks to the provider sector include slower volumes, deteriorating payer mix, integration issues, increased government regulation, and unexpected macroeconomic developments [46][46][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring legislative changes and market dynamics that could affect the healthcare facilities and managed care landscape moving forward [46][46][46].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economic Data**, focusing on **unemployment claims** and **mortgage applications** trends. Key Points on Unemployment Claims 1. **Initial Claims Increase**: Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by **17,000** to **242,000** for the week ending December 7, exceeding both the estimate of **232,000** and the consensus of **220,000**. This period is noted as volatile due to seasonal factors [2][5][11]. 2. **4-Week Moving Average**: The 4-week moving average of initial claims increased by **6,000** to **224,000**, remaining below the **227,000** observed at the beginning of November [2][5]. 3. **State-Level Increases**: Increases in initial claims were broad-based across states, with the largest increases in **California**, **Texas**, and **New York**. Notably, California saw a decrease of **10,000** claims in a recent week [3][5]. 4. **Continuing Claims**: Continuing claims rose by **15,000** to **1,886,000**, slightly above expectations and consensus. This level is considered elevated since mid-October [5][11]. 5. **Regional Risks**: Specific risks were highlighted in **Washington**, **Michigan**, and **North Carolina**, where continuing claims remain elevated due to seasonal factors and recent events [5][11]. Key Points on Mortgage Applications 1. **Mortgage Applications Decline**: Mortgage applications for purchase fell by **4.1%** in the week ending December 6, following a series of increases in November [14][15]. 2. **Interest Rates**: The 30-year mortgage contract rate was reported at **6.67%**, a slight decrease from previous weeks but still significantly above the **7.8%** peak in October of the previous year [15][16]. 3. **Market Outlook**: Despite recent monetary policy easing, mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated, which may hinder a significant recovery in mortgage applications [15][16]. Additional Insights - **Seasonal Patterns**: The report notes a potential new seasonal pattern in unemployment claims, suggesting a trend towards lower claims in winter months compared to previous years [4][11]. - **Economic Volatility**: The discussion emphasizes the volatility of economic data during the holiday season, which complicates the interpretation of trends [2][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on unemployment claims and mortgage application trends, while also highlighting potential risks and seasonal patterns in the economic landscape.

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Companies Discussed**: Tiger Brands Ltd (TBSJ.J), Standard Bank (SBKJ.J), Hepsiburada (HEPS.O), Orlen SA (PKN.WA), LPP SA (LPPP.WA) - **Industries**: Bakery, Banking, E-commerce, Oil & Gas, Retail Core Insights and Arguments Tiger Brands Ltd (TBSJ.J) - **Market Share vs. EBIT Margins**: Pursuing best-in-class market share can negatively impact EBIT margins, as seen with Tiger Brands and Pioneer Foods. In contrast, stable market share can lead to stable or expanding EBIT margins, as demonstrated by Premier Foods [8] - **Asset Disposals**: Expected to raise approximately R4.2 billion in FY 25e from the sale of various assets, supporting a special dividend of R3.1 billion and enhancing ROIC [8] - **Target Price Adjustment**: Target price increased by approximately 10% to R295 per share, indicating a potential upside of 15.7% [8] Standard Bank (SBKJ.J) - **Earnings Downgrade**: Earnings estimates cut by 8-9% per annum due to currency headwinds affecting financial results across various African regions [8] - **Target Price Reduction**: Target price lowered from R260 to R250, but still maintains a Buy rating due to expected earnings rebound next year [8] Hepsiburada (HEPS.O) - **Growth Metrics**: Reported 3Q24 GMV growth of 70% YoY, with a 10% increase in real terms. EBITDA margin in line with guidance at 2.2% [16] - **Future Outlook**: Anticipates GMV growth to moderate to 50-55% in 4Q24, with a constructive outlook for 2H25 due to expected rate cuts [16] - **Target Price Update**: Target price raised to USD 4.8 from USD 4.4, maintaining a Buy rating [16] Orlen SA (PKN.WA) - **Project Capex Adjustment**: Adjusting the Olefin III project capex from ZL45-51 billion to ZL34 billion, which includes ZL6 billion in interest and ZL12.6 billion already spent [17] - **EBITDA Contribution**: Estimated EBITDA contribution from the project in 2030 is projected to be between ZL550-800 million [17] LPP SA (LPPP.WA) - **3Q24 Performance**: Net profit of ZL579 million, which is 9% below consensus expectations, driven by softer sales and lower margins [17] - **Revenue Growth**: Revenues increased by 20% YoY to ZL5.2 billion, but were still below consensus [17] - **2025 Guidance**: Strong guidance for 2025, expecting growth acceleration with space expansion of 35-40% [17] Additional Important Insights - **Sector Outlook**: The European diversified metals and mining sector is viewed positively for 2025, contingent on stimulus timing in China and trade war developments [17] - **Payments Sector**: Positive outlook for e-commerce payments, particularly for Adyen, while caution is advised in other FinTech areas [17] - **European Airlines**: Capacity moderation noted at Wizz, with ongoing updates on air travel supply and demand [17] - **Global Shipping**: Freight capacity growth of 5% YoY in December, with strong air freight rates [17] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the performance and outlook of the companies and industries involved.

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Summary of US Equity Strategy Conference Call Company and Industry - The report focuses on the **US Equity Market**, particularly the **Big 6 / Magnificent 7** technology stocks, including **Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple** [9][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Earnings Forecasts**: The report highlights strong earnings forecasts for the **TECH+** sector, with significant revisions expected for 2025. The **Big 6 / Magnificent 7** stocks are projected to have a positive impact on the broader market [9][10]. - **EPS Revisions**: - **Nvidia**: EPS growth estimates for 2024 are at **6.4%**, with a significant increase to **14.7%** for 2025. - **Amazon**: EPS growth is expected to be **11.4%** in 2024 and **8.3%** in 2025. - **Tesla**: EPS growth is projected at **10.4%** for 2024 and **6.0%** for 2025. - **Meta**: EPS growth is forecasted at **5.0%** for 2024 and **3.7%** for 2025. - **Alphabet**: EPS growth is expected to be **3.6%** in 2024 and **2.0%** in 2025. - **Microsoft**: EPS is expected to decline by **0.5%** in 2024 and **1.4%** in 2025. - **Apple**: EPS is projected to decline by **2.0%** in 2024 and **3.3%** in 2025 [10]. - **Market Divergence**: There is a notable divergence between the largest stocks and the rest of the **TECH+** sector, indicating that the performance of the **Big 6** is significantly better than the broader market [11]. Additional Important Insights - **Total Return**: The **Big 6 TECH+** stocks have shown a total return of **17.7%** over the last three months, while the **S&P 500** has returned **10.2%** [32]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - **Nvidia** has a forward P/E ratio of **31.4**, while **Tesla** is an outlier at **122.3**. - The **Big 6 TECH+** stocks trade at a reasonable premium of **29.6** compared to the **S&P 500** at **22.1** [33]. - **Earnings Weight**: The **Big 6 TECH+** stocks account for **67.3%** of earnings in the **TECH+** sector, while the rest contribute only **32.7%** [21]. Conclusion - The **US Equity Strategy** report emphasizes the strong performance and growth potential of the **Big 6 / Magnificent 7** technology stocks, highlighting their significant impact on the overall market. The divergence in performance between these stocks and the broader market suggests potential investment opportunities within this sector [9][10][11].