更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Accessible version European Equity Strategy Lowering European versus global equities to underweight Better Euro area growth momentum and signs of a performance turnaround have led to optimism on 2 4 May 2024 Europe: after 15% underperformance versus global equities in little under a year, European equities have Equity Strategy begun to show signs of a performance turnaround in recent months. Europe’s relative performance is strongly Europe determined by two macro factors: (a) Eu ...

Summary of Japan Flow Update - FY23 Life Insurer Results Industry Overview - The report focuses on the life insurance industry in Japan, specifically analyzing the results of 11 major life insurers for FY23. Key Points and Arguments Investment Strategies - Life insurers reduced risk in H2 FY23 by decreasing holdings in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and foreign bonds, while also shortening the duration of their investments [1][2] - There was a net selling trend in superlong bond investments, with average duration slightly shortened [2][10] - Demand for FX-hedged and unhedged foreign bonds is expected to remain weak due to high hedging costs and a historically weak Japanese Yen (JPY) [2][24] Performance of Securities - Securities in general accounts showed a slight downturn, particularly in domestic and overseas bonds, with unrealized losses in domestic bonds continuing [1][8] - Unrealized profits in domestic equities reached a four-year high, while unrealized profits in foreign bonds improved for the first time in four quarters [1][8] Foreign Bond Investment - Life insurers reduced foreign bond investments while maintaining a broadly unchanged duration [19] - FX hedging ratios decreased from 45% at the end of September 2023 to 42% at the end of March 2024, marking the lowest level since March 2008 [24] Emerging Market (EM) Investments - EM currency assets increased to JPY 1.9 trillion at the end of FY23, driven by an increase in Singapore Dollar (SGD) assets, although this was limited to a single company [3][38] - Life insurers are likely to refrain from aggressive investments in EM assets as long as US yields remain elevated [40] Interest Rate Risk Management - Hedging of interest rate risk in response to new regulations is largely complete, with investments required to neutralize interest rate sensitivity decreasing significantly [33] - Life insurers have been net buyers of superlong bonds in preparation for new regulations set to launch in April 2025 [33] Market Outlook - Superlong bonds are considered relatively attractive and may see dip-buying if interest rate volatility cools [15] - The average assumed investment yield for life insurers is around 1.8%, with many targeting 2% in their FY24 investment plans [15] Currency and Hedging Trends - The utilization of JPY interest rate derivatives indicates a greater concern about rising yields among life insurers [17] - FX hedging ratios for USD and AUD fell, while rising for EUR, reflecting a shift in hedging strategies [24][25] Additional Important Insights - Life insurers have sold off MXN and PLN assets and reduced exposure to CNY, indicating a cautious approach towards certain EM currencies [39] - The overall investment stance of Japanese life insurers is shifting towards a higher concentration in USD-denominated assets [40] This comprehensive analysis highlights the cautious investment strategies of Japanese life insurers in response to market conditions, regulatory changes, and currency fluctuations, indicating a significant shift in their asset allocation and risk management approaches.

Ac更ces多sib资le v料ers加ion入 知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 FX Technical Advantage The golden cro$$ strikes again View: The golden cro$$ strikes again 2 5 March 2024 A golden cross (systematic) signal has occurred and favors a supported or stronger DXY FICC Technical Strategy in Q2. Today, March 25, 2024 with a closing price near 104.23, the golden cross signal Global Markets has been confirmed as the 36th signal since 1970 and the 18th since the euro began trading in 1999 (Chart 1). Since 1970, the DXY tended to be hi ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 FICC Research Economics 30 May 2024 ECB Preview Every journey begins with a single CORE step We expect the ECB to start its easing cycle by cutting rates by European Economics 25bp. The updated inflation forecasts should validate the Mariano Cena decision by showing inflation sustainably at target by mid 2025. +44 (0) 20 7773 0727 mariano.cena@barclays.com The rates guidance should remain unchanged as it provides, for Barclays, UK now, enough flexibility to accommodate diverse e ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 FICC Research Interest Rates 30 May 2024 European Sovereign Supply Monthly June cash flows decoded CORE We project gross EGB supply totalling c.€105bn in June, with net issuance rising significantly m/m to just over €70bn in a context of notably light redemptions. In Gilts, gross supply should total Max Kitson +44 (0) 20 3134 1456 c.£26bn across six auctions and a single syndication, with the max.kitson@barclays.com net cash call on the market at c.£18.5bn given £7.5bn of Barcla ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 30 May 2024 | 9:31PM EDT Micron Technology Inc. (MU): Global Semiconductor Conference — Key Takeaways Toshiya Hari +1(646)446-1759 | toshiya.hari@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Balaban +1(212)357-6369 | david.balaban@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Presenters: Sumit Sadana, Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer Trevor Janoskie +1(212)357-9851 | trevor.janoskie@gs.com Moderated by: Toshiya Hari, US Semiconductors & Semi Cap Equipment Equity Goldman Sachs & Co. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US economy**, indicating a significant slowdown and potential contraction ahead. [2][5] Core Economic Insights - **Consumer Spending**: - Declined by **0.1% MoM** in April, with Q1 data revised to show a more dramatic decline in real goods spending. [2][5] - Real services spending slowed to **0.10% MoM** in April, indicating a weakening trend. [8] - Cyclically sensitive spending on restaurants has declined in four out of the last five months. [9] - **Inflation**: - Core PCE inflation slowed to **0.249% MoM** and **2.75% YoY** in April, which is still elevated but shows signs of easing. [15][27] - The slowdown in "supercore" nonshelter services to **0.26% MoM** is viewed positively by Fed officials. [15] - **Labor Market**: - A projected **140k new jobs** are expected in May, with an unemployment rate rising to **4.0%**. [15][18] - Job openings are expected to decline to **8.39 million**, reflecting a tightening labor market. [20][41] - Credit card delinquency rates are at their highest since 2007, indicating financial strain among consumers. [5][6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a **25 basis point rate cut in July**, with a total of **200 basis points** of cuts anticipated through June 2025. [2][5] - Fed officials are likely to adjust their projections in June, potentially reducing the number of expected rate cuts for 2024 from three to two. [16] Consumer Confidence and Spending Trends - The **Conference Board consumer confidence index** rose to **102.0** in May, driven by improved expectations. [22] - The share of disposable income going to rent has increased, further straining consumer budgets. [6][8] Trade and Construction Insights - The goods trade balance is expected to widen to **-$76.2 billion**, which could negatively impact Q2 GDP. [45] - Construction spending is projected to decline slightly, reflecting weaker housing demand and rising mortgage rates. [53] Additional Observations - The report highlights a potential non-linear adjustment in the labor market, with firms possibly resorting to layoffs rather than just slowing hiring. [11][12] - The upcoming jobs report is critical, as it will influence Fed policy and market expectations. [17][18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the US economy, consumer behavior, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's anticipated actions.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Point | The Global Point Thursday, 30 May 2024 Asia | CEEMEA | Latin America | North America Asia Australia Real Estate - Retail space optimism: declining vacancies, rental gains, and demand-supply balance Over the last 12 months, retail real estate has surprised to the upside with resilient occupancies, improving leasing spread momentum and overall net operating income growth. Higher inflation has supported nominal rental growth for CPI linked leases, whilst lower supply of new ...

30 May 2024 | 9:45PM EDT 17% of total revenue). Organically, the Total System Solution approach continues to be at the core of the company's strategy, while management also remains open to tuck-in deals as evidenced by the recent acquisition of Neuronix AI Labs. Management expects pricing to return to more historical patterns (i.e. flat to slightly down) over the medium- to long-term, but does not expect absolute pricing to revert to pre-pandemic levels given elevated depreciation costs across the industry. ...

Downloaded from Capital IQ by Zoe Shi (zshi@generalatlantic.com) at General Atlantic Service Company, L.P. on Friday May 31 2024 09:16:30 AM, Sessionid:uz33kb2ioepo1sx3rps1zyy3 Ac更ces多sib资le v料ers加ion入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 The Flow Show Pain = Gain Scores on the Doors: crypto 51.4%, gold 13.1%, commod 9.1%, stocks 8.9%, oil 8.7%, 3 1 May 2024 US dollar 3.4%, cash 2.2%, HY bonds 1.8%, IG bonds -1.7%, govt bonds -5.6% YTD. Investment Strategy Global Tale of the Tape: political polarization, protectionism, wa ...