Summary of the Japan Materials Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Japan Materials Sector, particularly the chemicals and metals industries, as analyzed by UBS Research [2][11]. Key Points and Arguments Upstream Chemicals - Upstream chemicals remain the top long position by sector, with increasing expectations for domestic business restructuring [2][3]. - The crowding index indicates a strong long position for Nitto Denko and Shin-Etsu Chemical, while SUMCO shows a low crowding index, indicating a bearish sentiment [3][4]. Metals and Trading Companies - Mitsubishi Corp is highlighted as a top long position, while JFE Holdings is noted as a top short position [4][22]. - The bearish stance on the blast furnace industry is emphasized, with Kobe Steel and Furukawa Electric showing interest in value stocks [4][22]. Market Sentiment - The chemicals sector appears to lack direction, with investors assessing macroeconomic factors, particularly the impact of tariffs under the second Trump administration [3][22]. - Defensive stocks are likely to attract attention amid the current market conditions [3][22]. Crowding Factor Analysis - The crowding index ranges from +30 (maximum long) to -30 (maximum short), with significant long positions in upstream chemicals and narrowing short positions in semiconductor materials [2][19]. - The report indicates a narrowing in short positions for Nippon Sanso Holdings and a narrowing in long positions for Sekisui Chemical over the past two months [3][19]. Three-Factor Crowded Momentum Stocks - The Three-Factor crowding momentum strategy combines crowding score, change in crowding, and one-month price momentum to identify potential outperformers and underperformers [21][22]. - Stocks like Mitsubishi Corp and Shin-Etsu Chemical have high scores, while JFE Holdings and Nippon Steel are among those with low scores [22]. Additional Important Insights - The report includes detailed crowding rankings for various materials stocks, indicating the current market positioning and sentiment towards these companies [19][22]. - The analysis suggests that long positions in crowded stocks that are underperforming may yield better returns, while short positions in crowded stocks that are overperforming may underperform [21][22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Japan Materials Sector and the implications for investors.

Summary of J.P. Morgan Oil Markets Weekly (10 January 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil market, particularly the impact of U.S. sanctions on the Russian oil industry and the resulting price movements in crude oil [1][5][9]. Key Points Oil Price Movements - Oil prices reached a three-month high, with Brent crude increasing nearly 4% to $80 per barrel and WTI rising to $77 per barrel [1][5]. - The premium of Middle Eastern crudes over Brent has widened [1]. Sanctions on Russian Oil - A total of 451 vessels are now sanctioned, with 183 additional vessels added to the previous 268 [4][16]. - The newly sanctioned vessels include 211 oil-related tankers, which represent just below 16% of the total Russian tanker fleet of approximately 1,342 vessels [4][16]. - In 2023, these 211 vessels transported 1.7 million barrels per day (mbd) of crude oil and 200,000 barrels per day (kbd) of oil products, totaling 1.9 mbd [4][16]. - Over 80% of the crude transported by these vessels was sent to countries that may comply with U.S. sanctions [4][16]. Impact of Sanctions - The sanctions are expected to disrupt Russian oil flows more significantly than previous measures, increasing the cost of doing business with Russia due to the risk of secondary sanctions [13]. - China is reportedly becoming a less permissive buyer of Russian oil, with ports in Shandong province instructed to ban U.S.-sanctioned tankers from docking [13]. - Russia has adapted by acquiring its own fleet of tankers and insuring them domestically, redirecting oil shipments from Europe to Asia [14]. U.S. Inflation and Oil Prices - The sanctions and oil price dynamics have contributed to a significant disinflationary effect in the U.S., accounting for two-thirds of the drop in headline CPI inflation from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.4% in December 2023 [10]. - Oil alone contributed 300 basis points to the decline in inflation [10]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the new sanctions may provide the U.S. administration with leverage in future negotiations with Russia regarding sanctions [19]. - Other oil-producing countries may increase their market share at Russia's expense, with Chinese and Indian refiners seeking alternatives to Iranian and Russian crudes [18]. Price Forecasts - J.P. Morgan's crude oil price forecasts indicate that Brent prices are expected to average $73 per barrel in 2025, with WTI averaging $69 per barrel [31]. Additional Insights - The sanctions allow for a wind-down period, with tankers permitted to unload until February 27, and energy-related transactions continuing until March 12 [16]. - Rosneft and major oil trading companies supplying Russian oil were excluded from the sanctions, allowing them to engage in domestic crude swaps [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan Oil Markets Weekly report, highlighting the current state of the oil market, the implications of sanctions on Russian oil, and the broader economic context.

10 January 2025 | 6:25PM GMT EM Weekly Fund Flows Monitor Foreign selling led by India wow; Strong SB buying led by Tencent; India domestic flows remained robust in Dec; HF exposure stays at 5yr low in China Foreign (FII) flows / positioning HK/China Connect, Domestic retail flows Global Equity mutual fund flows Focus: CN Flows/positioning; IN domestic flows Sunil Koul +44(20)7051-4931 | sunil.koul@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Mark Hung +852-3465-4266 | mark.hung@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Tim ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **container shipping industry** and its current market dynamics, including freight rates, seasonal trends, and the impact of labor agreements on shipping lines. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Freight Rate Trends**: The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped by **8.6% week-on-week** due to averted strikes, with expectations of continued downward pressure from weaker seasonal demand [3][10][22]. 2. **General Rate Increases (GRIs)**: Two rounds of GRIs, ranging from **USD 1,000 to USD 3,000 per FEU**, are scheduled for January 15 and February 1, 2025. However, the likelihood of these increases being implemented is low due to the recent labor agreement [3][21][34]. 3. **Seasonal Patterns**: Historically, freight rates decline by an average of **12%** four weeks after the Lunar New Year (LNY). The industry anticipates similar softness in rates in the upcoming months [4][22]. 4. **Capacity Management**: Shipping lines are adopting blank sailings to manage capacity, with a reported **12% cancellation rate** of sailings from December 30 to February 2 [4][22]. 5. **Profitability Outlook**: Despite the anticipated decline in rates, preliminary results from major liners indicate profitability in Q4 2024, with CSH's profit increasing **1.7x year-on-year** to **RMB 49 billion** [5][10]. 6. **Market Sentiment**: Futures for SCFIS (Shanghai-Europe) are trading at a **30-51% discount** to spot rates, reflecting market expectations of weakening demand and overcapacity [3][25][29]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Impact of Labor Agreements**: The recent labor agreement averted a potential strike at US East Coast ports, which could have significantly disrupted shipping operations [20]. 2. **Tanker Market Conditions**: The tanker market is experiencing soft rates, with VLCC rates falling to approximately **USD 20,000 per day** due to weak demand and ongoing OPEC+ cuts [6]. 3. **Geopolitical Factors**: Sanctions on US-sanctioned tankers by Shandong Port Group may influence the inflow of Middle Eastern oil to China, potentially supporting VLCC rates [6]. 4. **Future Considerations**: Key factors to monitor include the extent of blanked sailings, cargo recovery post-CNY, and the timing of frontloading ahead of any punitive tariffs [23]. Conclusion The container shipping industry is currently facing challenges with declining freight rates and overcapacity, but there are signs of resilience in profitability among major shipping lines. The impact of labor agreements and geopolitical factors will be crucial in shaping the market dynamics in the near term.

Equity Research Equity Strategy 10 January 2025 Equity Market Review Keywords for 2025: Trump, Rates, AI Early price action ytd has been mainly driven by Trump rhetoric, rising rates and news about AI spend. Amid myriad potential catalysts, how Trumponomics materialise, ability of CBs & government to calm rates, and whether Big Tech fuels more US exceptionalism likely hold the fate of equities in '25 Weekly market commentary Trump 2.0: fasten your seat belt. Our 2025 outlook was titled 'Regime change', as w ...

Summary of Goldman Sachs Weekly Fund Flows (January 10, 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on global fund flows, particularly in equity and fixed income markets, for the week ending January 8, 2025 - It highlights trends in mutual funds, including strong inflows across various sectors and regions Key Points Global Fund Flows - **Equity Funds**: Net inflows into global equity funds were robust, totaling $26 billion, an increase from $25 billion in the previous week, with strong demand for global equity benchmark funds, US equities, and mainland China equity funds [4][8] - **Fixed Income Funds**: Global fixed income funds saw inflows of $22 billion, a significant rise from $3 billion in the previous week, driven by government, Agg-type, and bank loan funds [4][8] - **Money Market Funds**: Assets in money market funds increased by $143 billion, indicating a strong preference for liquidity [4][8] Sector Performance - **Technology and Telecom**: These sectors experienced the strongest inflows among equity funds, while real estate and energy sectors faced the largest outflows [4][8] - **Emerging Markets (EM)**: Local currency bond funds in EM saw net inflows of $2.3 billion, while hard currency bond funds experienced outflows of $3.995 billion [8][10] Currency Flows - **G10 FX Flows**: Cross-border FX flows were firm, totaling $39.067 billion, with strong demand for G10 currencies, particularly the USD, which accounted for $36.994 billion of the total [10][11] - **Emerging Market Currencies**: Notably, the Chinese Yuan (CNY) saw outflows of $3.534 billion, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards EM currencies [10][11] Investment Trends - **Short-Duration vs. Long-Duration Bonds**: Investors showed a preference for short-duration bond funds, which saw inflows of $18.052 billion, compared to outflows from long-duration funds [8][19] - **Sector Allocations**: Financials and healthcare sectors saw positive inflows, while energy and real estate sectors faced significant outflows, reflecting changing investor preferences [8][21] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these fund flows as part of a broader investment strategy, highlighting the dynamic nature of market conditions and investor behavior [3][4] - The data indicates a potential shift in market sentiment, with investors favoring sectors and asset classes that offer stability and growth potential in the current economic environment [4][8] Conclusion - The Goldman Sachs Weekly Fund Flows report provides a comprehensive overview of current trends in global fund flows, highlighting significant inflows into equity and fixed income markets, sector performance, and currency trends, which are crucial for understanding the investment landscape as of January 2025.

Summary of US Gaming Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US online sports betting (OSB) and iGaming sectors, analyzing data from 29 states to provide insights into market dynamics, growth trends, and competitive landscape [2][21][22]. Key Insights - **Market Growth**: November 2024 saw a year-over-year (YoY) growth of +78% in same-state OSB GGR, rebounding from a -14% decline in October. Including new state launches, the growth was +89% YoY [3][12]. - **iGaming Performance**: iGaming same-state GGR growth was +30% YoY, outperforming the 2024 year-to-date average of +27% YoY [7][12]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: - Flutter's market share increased by approximately +2 percentage points (pp) YoY, while DraftKings remained stable YoY. DraftKings gained +4pp month-over-month (MoM) in November, while FanDuel's market share contracted by -3pp MoM [3][10][54]. - Flutter and DraftKings together hold about 77% of the OSB GGR market share year-to-date (YTD) [10]. Competitive Landscape - **Flutter**: Despite unfavorable sports results impacting EBITDA expectations by $205 million for FY24, Flutter's underlying trends remain strong. The company has improved customer acquisition and product offerings, maintaining a stable market share of 28% in iGaming [9][12]. - **DraftKings**: The company has shown resilience with stable market share and strong customer acquisition metrics. DraftKings' NGR market share was reported at 34% in November [10][12]. - **BetMGM**: After experiencing share losses, BetMGM has begun to stabilize its market share, with a +1pp increase in OSB GGR market share in November. However, it still lags behind Flutter and DraftKings in customer perception metrics [12][13]. Promotional Intensity and Customer Perception - The report highlights the impact of promotional intensity on market dynamics, noting that higher promotional activities can inflate market share figures for smaller operators [12][13]. - Customer feedback indicates that FanDuel and DraftKings maintain a strong lead in Net Promoter Score (NPS) and Net Purchase Intent (NPI) metrics, while BetMGM's scores have softened in the fourth quarter [12][13]. Future Outlook - The US gaming market is projected to grow significantly, with GGR expected to reach over $16 billion in 2023 and forecasted to approach $40 billion by 2028 [21]. - The competitive landscape remains concentrated, with Flutter and DraftKings dominating the market. New entrants like ESPN Bet and Fanatics are beginning to gain traction, but they still hold less than 5% of the GGR market share [12][13]. Conclusion - The US gaming industry is experiencing robust growth, driven by favorable market conditions and competitive dynamics. Flutter and DraftKings continue to lead the market, while BetMGM is working to regain its footing. The focus on customer acquisition and product innovation will be crucial for sustaining growth in this rapidly evolving sector [2][21][22].

Summary of Shenzhen Inovance Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Inovance Technology (Ticker: 300124.SZ) - **Industry**: Automation and New Energy Vehicles (NEV) - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb153,107 million - **Current Share Price**: Rmb57.20 (as of January 9, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb65.00, indicating a 14% upside potential [5][8] Key Insights from the Conference Call Automation Market Outlook - Management expects the automation market to stabilize in 2025, driven by: - Ongoing consumption stimulus - Equipment upgrades - Energy-saving transformations - Emerging market demands, including humanoid robots and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles [1][2] - New energy vehicle (NEV) orders in Q4 2024 accounted for approximately 10% of total orders, indicating stabilization [1] Product Development and Launches - Inovance plans to launch humanoid robot component products in 2025, focusing on upper limb applications [2] - The NEV powertrain business is projected to grow faster than the industry average, with the top five clients contributing around 60% of total NEV revenue [2] International Expansion - The company aims to accelerate overseas growth to 20-30% year-on-year in 2025, up from approximately 20% in 2024 [3] - Key markets include Southeast Asia, Korea, Turkey, and the Middle East, with negotiations ongoing for a potential plant in the US [3] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - 2024 Estimated Revenue: Rmb38,754 million - 2025 Estimated Revenue: Rmb46,408 million - 2026 Estimated Revenue: Rmb55,083 million [5] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024 Estimated EPS: Rmb1.87 - 2025 Estimated EPS: Rmb2.17 - 2026 Estimated EPS: Rmb2.49 [5] Risks and Challenges Upside Risks - A stronger-than-expected macroeconomic environment could boost demand for automation products [9] - Enhanced sales of electric powertrains equipped with Inovance's EV control systems in 2024 [9] Downside Risks - Potential failure to develop high-end automation products, leading to declining average selling prices (ASP) for low-end products due to competition [10] - Larger-than-expected declines in gross margins due to raw material price increases [10] Conclusion Shenzhen Inovance Technology is positioned for growth in the automation and NEV sectors, with a focus on product innovation and international expansion. However, the company faces risks related to product development and market competition that could impact its financial performance.

11 January 2025 | 3:04AM HKT Global Economics Wrap-Up: January 10, 2025 Global Economics US Economics Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2 ...

ab 10 January 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research China Internet Sector Online entertainment and education 2025 outlook quantamental scorecard update Positioning for bottom-up comeback potential We revisit our quantamental scorecard (Figure 1) since our initial launch in October 2024 (see our APAC Focus report). Since our initial version, overall consumption has weakened, as shown in soft November data (link), and UBS China's economics team predicts a slow down in overall consumption for 20 ...