AI Investment Landscape - AI is a foundational technology, not a fleeting trend, rewiring industries and driving a new economy [3][4][8] - Massive investments in AI infrastructure, data centers, semiconductor fabs, energy grids, and advanced networking are crucial for the new digital economy [6] - The focus should be on the infrastructure (picks and shovels) like GPUs, servers, connectivity, and cybersecurity, not just the AI applications [7] - Suro Capital invests in AI infrastructure layer companies, including OpenAI, CoreWeave, and Vast Data [17] - CoreWeave went public and received buy recommendations from banks with price targets above $200, trading around $185 [18][19] AI Technology and Challenges - AI hallucination refers to the AI making assumptions and generating incorrect information [24][25][26] - Companies are investing in building guardrails to make enterprise AI applications more reliable and reduce hallucinations [27][37] - Different AI models are trained differently, leading to varying responses to the same query [30][31] - AI models are improving, and errors are becoming less frequent, with efforts focused on making them enterprise-ready [37][38][39] Future of AI and Labor Market - AI is reshaping the labor market, with new jobs emerging and existing roles evolving [49] - AI tools are being adopted in specialized fields like medicine (Open Evidence) and law (Harvey AI) [41][45] - Companies providing AI solutions for medical professionals (transcription) are seeing massive increases in valuation [45][46] AI Regulation - AI regulation is a moving target, with a push and pull between fostering growth and implementing guardrails [50][51] - Regulators are trying to understand the key components of AI technology to determine the best approach for regulation [51] - The rapid pace of AI development makes it challenging for regulation to keep up [52][53]

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Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, the Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock futures are rising following the June PPI report. Producer prices that showed wholesale inflation was little changed in June, helping make the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. But the PPI report follows June consumer price data that showed higher tariffs are filtering through into a variety of categories that include household furn ...

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - US stock futures are treading carefully as bond yields have picked up, leading investors to scale back bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has added nearly 15 basis points in the past week, approaching 45% [5] - Traders reassess expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as price increases accelerated in June [5] - The market is closely watching President Trump's trade plans and potential tariffs on pharmaceutical companies and semiconductors, assessing their impact on inflation [6] - Bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are fading as recent data has shown signs of sticky inflation, with core prices increasing 29% in June compared to the prior year [47] - Traders now see just a 52% chance the Fed cuts rates in September, down from a 70% chance seen just a week ago [48] AI & Technology Sector - Nvidia closed at a record high, above $170 per share, with plans to sell H20 AI chips in China [7] - ASML, a supplier of computer chipmaking equipment, said it may not achieve growth in 2026 due to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical developments; shares fell more than 7% in pre-market trading [8] - The AI trade is considered to be in a 3-5 year bull market, but may be overheated in the short term [10][11] - Apple announced that it would buy rare earth magnets from MP Materials in a $500 million deal [46] Banking & Financial Performance - Bank of America reported adjusted earnings per share of 89 cents, higher than analyst expectations of 85 cents, with revenue at $265 billion [16] - Bank of America's net interest income for the second quarter came in at $1467 billion, above estimates for $146 billion [18] - Bank of America's trading revenue in the second quarter came in at $538 billion, exceeding the street's expectation of $494 billion [19] - Bank of America's investment banking revenue came in at $143 billion, slightly above estimates for $127 billion [21] Precious Metals Market - Silver has risen more than 28% this year, outperforming gold and copper [24] - Croup forecasts silver to continue to soar above $40 an ounce [24] - Central banks have been a huge determining force in their buying of gold, with over 1,000 tons bought in each of the last three years [31] - Trump's tariffs on copper threatening to be 50% on August 1st, we're seeing a lot of front running in this trade [28] Healthcare Sector - Johnson and Johnson reported second quarter adjusted EPS of $277, boosting its full-year sales outlook to a range of $932 billion to $936 billion and full-year adjusted earnings per share to a range of $1080 to $1090 [42][43] - The pharma sector is bracing for potential tariffs from President Trump [44] Impact of Tariffs - Rio Tinto said that US tariffs on its Canada-made aluminum have added $300 million in costs in the first half of this year [39] - Trump hit Canada with a 50% tariff on aluminum and auto parts in June [40]

We want Tesla before it's Tesla. We want Apple when it's right out of the garage. We're looking for those people that have the most imaginative and innovative ideas because we have a philosophy that when we give our money to those ingenious people, we all end up surviving better because where would we be without wireless communication and now we have electronic cars and you know innovations in building.It's all been born from the innovators. And we have to really nourish people who are imaginative and have ...

Social Security Concerns - Social Security's retirement fund could be depleted in approximately 8 years, potentially leading to a benefit cut of about 23% [1] - The depletion date for the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) fund has moved forward by about 6 months due to the Social Security Fairness Act, and another 3 months due to lower fertility rates and worker-to-retiree ratio [7][8][12] - A couple retiring in the year of insolvency could face a $16,500 reduction in their annual benefits [13] - For a single person with a primary insurance amount (PIA) of $3,500 claiming at age 70, benefits could drop by $12,000 annually after the potential cut [15] - For a couple where one spouse has a PIA of $3,500 and the other $2,500, claiming at 70, their combined benefits could drop by $20,000 annually [15][16] Medicare Challenges - The Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund (Medicare Part A) is projected to be depleted by 2033, three years earlier than the previous projection [5] - Medicare Part B premiums are expected to continue rising, with an example projection using a 6% annual increase [40][41] - Changes in Part D (prescription drug coverage) are causing significant price increases for consumers, with some monthly charges jumping from $3.30 to $35.90 [43][44] Healthcare Coverage Issues - Potential Medicaid cuts and changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) could result in approximately 8 million people losing Medicaid coverage and another 8 million losing ACA coverage [1][46] - Proposed changes to ACA enrollment involve stricter requirements and shorter enrollment windows, potentially leading to people losing coverage inadvertently [50][51]

Consumer Sentiment vs Reality - Consumer sentiment has been unreliable in predicting the economy's direction [1] - Consumers are good at judging their own finances, but pessimistic about the overall economy due to media influence [2][3] - Consumer sentiment is often influenced by political affiliation [4] - It's more reliable to observe consumer spending habits than to rely on sentiment surveys [6][7] Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - Household consumption has been steadily increasing [7] - Big banks' earnings reports show no significant cracks in the US consumer [9] - Charge-offs at big banks were below expectations, indicating no consumer credit stress [10] - The job market is the primary driver of consumer spending [10] - The labor market is cooling, but still adding jobs at a reasonable pace [11][12] - As long as real wage growth is positive, consumption will continue to be supported [13] Inflation and Tariffs - The year-over-year CPI number of 27% is driven by a low base period in the previous year [14] - Month-over-month CPI numbers are within or below expectations [15] - Economists are finding evidence that tariffs are pushing prices up, especially in product categories dominated by imports [18][19] - Trump's tariffs might raise inflation from 27% to 35%-4% [21] - Inflation had fallen to a low of 23% earlier in the year, but is now trending in the wrong direction [24]

Market Trends & Regulatory Landscape - Nvidia and AMD are working with the administration to overcome regulatory barriers and ship products back into China [1] - The details of how scaled down the chips need to be have been worked out, providing a clearer path for Nvidia and AMD in China [3] - American export controls have been motivating Chinese companies to develop local silicon and manufacturing capabilities [7][8] China Market Opportunity - China represents a multi-billion dollar opportunity for Nvidia [3] - Jensen estimates the China market to be a $50 billion market [4] - The total refresh of infrastructure in the age of AI represents trillions of dollars globally, with China being a significant part of this opportunity [4][5] - China's increasing AI services and cloud players require new infrastructure, making it a significant and growing market [6] Competitive Dynamics - While Huawei is manufacturing competitive products, companies like Baidu and Tencent still prefer Nvidia's offerings [6] - Despite local competition, the market opening up presents significant opportunities for Nvidia and AMD [7] Company Strategy & Investments - Apple is investing $500 million in MP Materials to secure rare earth elements for manufacturing and control pricing [14][15][16] - Apple's AI strategy focuses on creating an intelligent agent with domain expertise in its ecosystem, partnering with others for broader capabilities [23][28] - Apple may consider smaller acquisitions of companies with technologies and teams that fit its culture and AI vision [27] Consumer Adoption of AI - Consumers are excited about AI features that add value to their lives, such as improved search, summarization, and agentic capabilities [31][32] - AI is viewed as a software feature that enhances functionality and productivity, rather than a standalone technology [30][32]

Market Performance - NASDAQ is the only major market to close in the green [1] - Dow is down almost 1 percentage point [2] - S&P 500 is down about 04 percentage point [3] - S&P 600, a small cap market, is down 21%, marking the worst day for small caps in almost 8 weeks [4] - Tech is the only sector in the green, with Materials down 2% [6][7] Economic Indicators and Analysis - The 30-year yield is back above 5%, impacting equities [4] - CPI inflation is stalling out, with tariffs affecting goods inflation [10] - Consumer sentiment is delivering false alarms, with consumers judging their own finances positively but the overall economy negatively [35] - Economists suggest focusing on consumer spending rather than sentiment [40] - June CPI report shows a year-over-year number of 27%, but month-over-month numbers are fine, with the core number at 02% [47][48] Company Specific News - Nvidia is up 404%, resuming sales of some chips in China, potentially adding $8 billion in revenue [8][18][19] - JP Morgan's earnings were strong, with net interest income guidance exceeding expectations by at least $15 billion and investment banking revenues up over 9% year-on-year [25][26][27] - Bank of America expects net interest income to rise about 7% from the previous quarter [62]

On Asking for a Trend for Tuesday, July 15, Host Josh Lipton talks to Creative Strategies CEO and principal analyst Ben Bajarin about some of the biggest names in tech. They touch on the news that Nvidia and AMD are planning to resume selling their chips in China and discuss what could lie ahead for Apple. Arctic Wolf CEO and president Nick Schneider joins the program to discuss how his cybersecurity company is using AI to keep customers safe. He also weighs in on whether or not the $4 billion startup will ...