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Catalysts for the next market rally, oil prices pull back, winners and losers in China
Yahoo Finance· 2025-06-16 17:28
Market Trends & Geopolitical Impact - Oil prices initially surged to their highest level since January but pulled back following signals from Iran about de-escalating tensions and potential nuclear talks [1][18][20][21] - Defense stocks continued to climb amid the Israel-Iran conflict, though analysts suggest investor behavior is more of a "safe haven" move than a direct correlation to company bottom lines [1][70][71][72] - The Paris Air Show is expected to be muted due to the ongoing conflict and a recent Air India crash, with Boeing CEO skipping the event [59][61] Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The market is shifting focus to Fed policy, earnings, and factors impacting the earnings picture, with the FOMC meeting being a key event [5][8] - There's discussion around the potential for a dovish Fed pivot, driven by inflation being cooler than in 2019 when the Fed last cut rates [35][36] - Real-time housing inflation is falling, suggesting the official measure has room to decline, potentially signaling a green light for the Fed to turn dovish [38][39] Company Specific & Sector Analysis - Meta is introducing ads to WhatsApp, focusing on user data for targeting but aiming to avoid content analysis, with the bigger opportunity being the race to artificial general intelligence [44][45][47] - Reddit is launching AI-driven advertising tools, leveraging human engagement data to inform generative AI and improve ad targeting [50][51] - Victoria's Secret is facing pressure from activist investors to overhaul the board and focus on the core bra business, while also navigating consumer spending habits and recent leadership changes [53][56][57] - China is stimulating its consumer market to offset export dependency, with Apple being a notable loser as domestic brands like Huawei gain market share [76][78][79][80] Global Investment Strategies - There's a potential shift in global equity leadership away from the US, with capital repatriation expected to benefit Europe, Asia, and emerging markets [87] - The US dollar showed no reaction to market surprises, and there was no rally in treasuries, indicating a lack of appetite for US assets [84][85] - TPW Advisory is overweight Chinese equity, favoring US-listed ETFs, and constructive on a global growth cycle extending through 2027-2028 [82][83] AI & Technology - AI is a major theme at the Can Lions International Festival of Creativity, with discussions on how it's changing the advertising and media industries [95] - Time Inc is embracing AI, launching Time AI with Scale AI to create personalized content and audio versions of their journalism [96][97][98][101][102] - Hyperscalers are investing heavily in the race to artificial general intelligence, even without knowing the ultimate prize [48] Energy Sector - Energy stocks may present an opportunity, as they have diverged from oil price trends and offer potential dividends [105][106] - AI's energy demands are creating a large energy problem, with hyperscalers investing in creative solutions like "behind the meter" energy sources [16][17] - Gas prices are still about 33 cents a gallon below last year, and diesel prices hit their lowest level since 2021 prior to Middle East escalations [23][32][33]
China is trying to stimulate its economy as consumer confidence is 'flat on its back,' analyst says
Yahoo Finance· 2025-06-16 17:16
China's Economic Strategy & Consumer Market - China is strategically shifting away from export dependency on the US consumer by stimulating domestic consumption, which has been sluggish since COVID [3] - The Chinese government is using fiscal stimulus to support consumption, particularly for big-ticket items like washing machines and refrigerators [5] - Chinese retail sales rose more than expected due to stimulus measures like the consumer goods trade-in program [1] US-China Trade & Tech Competition - US companies, particularly Apple, are losing ground in the Chinese market due to US-China tensions and increasing domestic competition [6][7] - Huawei is dominating the smartphone market in China, while Tesla's market share in the EV space has significantly declined, now barely in the top 10 [8][9] - China is successfully implementing industrial policy, dominating the renewable energy sector and expanding into robotics, advanced manufacturing, and AI [9][10] Global Investment & US Economic Outlook - TPW Advisory is overweight on Chinese equity using US-listed ETFs and has been for over a year, also favoring emerging markets more broadly [10][11] - The US is perceived as being priced at a premium with governance and policy uncertainties, leading to a potential shift in global equity leadership away from the US [16][17] - There is a lack of appetite from domestic and foreign investors to significantly increase their treasury, dollar, or US equity positions [15] - The US is seen as falling behind in EVs and industrial policy compared to Europe and China, which are actively investing in AI, climate, and defense [21]
Markets need to get used do the idea that Trump's tariffs aren't going away
Yahoo Finance· 2025-06-16 15:22
Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices are easing as tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate. Veda Partners managing partner and director of economic policy Henrietta Treyz joins Morning Brief to explain what the conflict means for US policy, in particular the tax bill and Russian sanctions package. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here: https://finance.yahoo.com/videos/series/morning-brief/ #youtube #stocks #investing About Yahoo Finance: Y ...
Why the stock market could move higher in 2026
Yahoo Finance· 2025-06-16 15:09
Market Outlook - Wells Fargo Investment Institute expects the stock market to move higher through 2026, despite potential volatility in 2025 due to economic, geopolitical, and policy uncertainties [2] - The Institute advises investors to remain invested in the market to capitalize on anticipated gains as the economy reaccelerates [2] - Periods of volatility should be viewed as opportunities to increase equity positions in anticipation of gains through 2026 [3] Investment Strategy - The Institute favors quality within the equity space, recommending large-cap and mid-cap stocks over small-cap stocks [4] - Developed markets are preferred over emerging markets for international exposure [4] - Diversification strategies should consider the strength in international spaces, particularly developed markets ex-US, which have compensated for underperformance in other equity markets [7][8] Risk Factors - Tariff troubles are expected to persist, potentially impacting corporate earnings and forward guidance [5][6] - Companies may reiterate caution or uncertainty related to tariffs in upcoming earnings quarters [5] Generative AI Opportunities - The benefits of generative AI extend beyond the tech sector to communication services, industrials, and energy sectors [9][10] - Investors should broaden their focus to include these sectors to capitalize on the AI trade, in addition to remaining favorable on the tech sector [10]
LIVE: Canada's Prime Minister Carney holds meeting with President Trump
Yahoo Finance· 2025-06-16 13:57
LIVE: Canada's Prime Minister Carney holds meeting with President Trump About Yahoo Finance: Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive market data, advanced tools, and more information to help you manage your financial life. - Get the latest news and data at finance.yahoo.com - Download the Yahoo Finance app on Apple (https://apple.co/3Rten0R) or Android (https://bit.ly/3t8UnXO) - Follow Yahoo Finance on social: X: http://twitter.com/YahooF ...
What every freelancer needs to know about taxes
Yahoo Finance· 2025-06-16 13:52
Overview - Yahoo Finance's "Financial Freestyle" podcast promotes economic prosperity for all through expert insights, practical advice, and inspiring success stories [1] - The podcast aims to empower listeners to build and grow wealth, fostering financial freedom and inclusive economic growth [1] Featured Guest & Key Themes - Karen Civil, entrepreneur and brand strategist, shares her money journey and insights on marketing and mastering one's value [1] - The episode covers early financial mistakes and her experiences working with notable figures like Lil Wayne, Nipsey Hussle, and Beats by Dre [1] - Success is attributed to mindset, strategy, and knowing one's worth [1] Call to Action - Listeners are encouraged to subscribe to "Financial Freestyle" on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or other podcast platforms [1] - Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive market data, and advanced tools [1] - Yahoo Finance encourages users to download their app on Apple and Android devices [1] - Follow Yahoo Finance on social media platforms like X, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and LinkedIn [1]
General Catalyst CEO: An AI driven power crisis lurks
Yahoo Finance· 2025-06-16 13:38
Welcome to a new episode of Yahoo Finance's opening bid podcast. I'm Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sazy. Like I always say, this the podcast that will make you a smarter investor, period.And I want to change it up for this episode. I've spent so much time uh over the past few months talking about AI in the enterprise. Or in other words, AI spreading throughout corporate America, mostly through agents unlocking all sorts of productivity and costing jobs.I want to focus on AI for good and a lot of thin ...
LIVE: Canada's Prime Minister Carney holds meeting with President Trump
Yahoo Finance· 2025-06-16 13:22
LIVE: Canada's Prime Minister Carney holds meeting with President Trump About Yahoo Finance: Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive market data, advanced tools, and more information to help you manage your financial life. - Get the latest news and data at finance.yahoo.com - Download the Yahoo Finance app on Apple (https://apple.co/3Rten0R) or Android (https://bit.ly/3t8UnXO) - Follow Yahoo Finance on social: X: http://twitter.com/YahooF ...
Why liquidity “opens opportunities” for investors.
Yahoo Finance· 2025-06-15 18:31
What investors should be asking themselves at all times, whether they're retirement investors, taxable investors, is do I need to have 100% of my assets 100% liquid 100% of the time. And if the answer to that is no, even if it's 85 or 90 or 95% of their assets are liquid, if they open up a small percentage to being illquid, you can really open up the opportunity set for investors and and invest in a much broader array of companies. Typically, we're working with long-term oriented clients.They're building a ...
Recent college grads face higher unemployment rate: Here's how to succeed
Yahoo Finance· 2025-06-15 16:01
New graduates are entering into one of the toughest job markets in recent history with unemployment rates for recent grads hitting 5.8% compared to just 4% for all workers. So, it's a crucial time for young people to make smart financial moves. I want to bring in Dena Healey who is the Prize Financial Vice President of Financial Planning and Advice.Great to have you here in studio with us. You have four pillars of advice for new graduates. Study your benefits, establish a strong credit history, develop a bu ...