Market Concerns & Tariff Impact - The primary concern revolves around the ultimate impact of tariff uncertainty on economic growth, both domestically and internationally [2][3][4] - Tariffs are projected to be significantly higher than last year's 25%, potentially reaching high single digits or even higher across the economy [3] - International trade may suffer as slower corporate earnings growth occurs due to decreased demand caused by tariffs [4] - The full impact of tariffs is yet to be felt, suggesting potential future headwinds for corporations [5] Economic Outlook & Inflation - The economy is currently holding up well, as evidenced by the labor market and inflation data [6][7] - Inflation numbers are expected to rise in the July and August readings, with acceleration later in the year [7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold at the July meeting and potentially the following meeting due to uncertainty about inflation [7] Corporate Earnings - Second-quarter earnings are expected to be favorable, with anticipated growth of only 2% to 3% [8] - Third-quarter reports are expected to reveal more concerns from companies regarding coping with tariffs [8] Cryptocurrency - Crypto and Bitcoin are viewed as a play on inflation and the dollar, functioning as a currency [9] - They can serve as a hedge against inflation and dollar uncertainty, similar to gold, but lack cash flow [10] - Investing in companies like Coinbase is suggested, as they can profit regardless of Bitcoin's price fluctuations [11]

Remote Work Policy Update - Starbucks is updating its remote work policy, requiring a minimum of four days in the office, Monday through Thursday, across Seattle, Toronto, and North America regional offices [1] - The new policy aims to reestablish the in-office culture to improve collaboration, creativity, problem-solving, and culture building [1] - Starbucks is offering a one-time voluntary exit program with a cash payment for partners who choose to opt out of the new policy [2] Stock Performance - Starbucks' stock is up approximately 2% year-to-date [2]

AI Investment and Strategy - Meta is aggressively investing hundreds of billions of dollars in compute buildout to achieve super intelligence, aiming for AI systems that outperform humans [1][2] - Meta is building multiple multi-gigawatt clusters, including Prometheus (coming online in 2026) and Hyperion (scaling to 5 gigawatts over several years), requiring more energy than some countries [2][3] - Meta aims to have the highest compute per researcher in the industry, potentially surpassing hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon in raw model training capacity [3] - Zuckerberg is focused on controlling the compute, team, and model building to reduce dependence on others for the next frontier model [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Meta's investment puts it in direct competition with OpenAI and Oracle's Project Stargate [3] - Google is also investing heavily, with plans to have a one-gigawatt supercluster online [6] - The race for AI dominance is shifting power back to model builders who own the stack and have the capital to build and train at scale [5][6] Business Model and Future Vision - Meta's advertising-driven business model generates significant cash, which is being reinvested in AI models to optimize ad load and consumer experience [9] - Zuckerberg aims to expand Meta's AI capabilities beyond advertising, envisioning Meta AI as a chatbot and AI coding platform [10] - The ultimate goal is to achieve "super intelligence" and reap the rewards of a platform shift [11]

Market Sentiment & Earnings Season Outlook - The market's expectation for earnings is high, potentially leading to a moderate selloff with initial results [1][3][4] - Analyst sentiment has shifted, with more raising estimates than lowering them, which is uncommon before earnings season and sets a higher bar [3] - Historically, the period starting tomorrow is the weakest three-month period for the market [3] Sector Analysis & Financials - Tech, financials, industrials, materials, and communication services have seen more positive analyst sentiment than negative, setting a higher bar for these sectors [5] - Financials are performing well this year, potentially outperforming tech, driven by a more benign regulatory backdrop and potential increase in deal activity [6][7][8] - Goldman Sachs has experienced one of its strongest periods between earnings reports since its IPO, indicating a significant rally [9] Potential Risks & Signs of Froth - Rallying micro-cap stocks are seen as a sign of exuberance and potential over-extension in the market [4] - Tariffs were a major concern in April, but sentiment has shifted, potentially leading to overconfidence [2][3]

Welcome back to the exchange. A couple of bearish calls in the restaurant space today. Melius Research initiating Starbucks with a sell rating and an $80 price target.It's down that would be 16% lower from here. They say pricing has outpaced the consumer experience. The firm also not buying the hype around the snack wrap launch, slapping a sell on McDonald's with a 250 price target.It's at 300 today. They're saying the Big Mac maker has a long road ahead to rebalance its value perception as well. Joining us ...

My next guest has some thoughts on what's really going on with Jensen Wong's visit to China. Derek Scissors is Asia economist at the American Enterprise Institute. Derek, it's good to see you. And um you think that he I don't know. He's he is he the Derek Rodman here? Well, you know, he just met with President Trump a couple days ago. Obviously, Jensen Huang goes to China a lot. He talks about China a lot, but in this case, the the the meeting with Trump, I think, is is specially timed. In other words, uh i ...

this deal, and it comes ahead of the August 12th end date of a US-China trade truce. Eunice Yoon is in Beijing with more on. Eunice.Why is this being so closely watched. And what does this approval signal. Well, it's being.>> Closely watched because the U.S. And the Europeans had already approved this deal, and China was really the holdout on this approval. So in a statement today, the Chinese antitrust regulator had approved the $35 billion acquisition, but with conditions. So what the conditions are, they ...

Remote Work Policy Update - Starbucks is updating its remote work policy, requiring corporate employees in Seattle, Toronto, and North America regional offices to work in the office a minimum of 4 days a week, Monday through Thursday [1] - The new policy will be effective from the new fiscal year [1] - CEO Brian Nickel believes in-office presence enhances collaboration, problem-solving, and culture building, which are crucial for the business turnaround [2] Employee Transition Support - Starbucks is offering a one-time voluntary exit program with a cash payment for corporate partners who choose to opt out of the new in-office requirement [2] Stock Performance - Starbucks' stock is down today but up approximately 2% year-to-date [3]

Market Analysis & Strategy - Morgan Stanley Investment Management highlights the concept of a positive but subpar year in the third year of a bull market, influencing investment strategy [2] - The firm adopted a cautious stance early in the year after a near double-digit market increase, later adding risk in April when the market declined by double digits [3] - Current market levels are perceived as inconsistent with a typical third year of a bull market, prompting a more cautious approach [3] - The firm anticipates strong second-quarter earnings, potentially leading to a few more weeks of market strength [4] - Opportunities are viewed as less favorable compared to the spring when the market was substantially lower [4] Risk Factors & Correction - Tariffs are not expected to be the primary cause of a market correction [5] - The market is not expected to react to known factors like tariffs in the same way it did previously [6] - A potential selloff later in the summer is anticipated to be triggered by unforeseen factors [6] - Potential triggers for a correction include the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, higher yields, or economic concerns [7] - The market is considered vulnerable due to the magnitude and speculative nature of the rally, particularly in euphoric stocks [7]

Tariffs and Trade - The US President has increased tariffs by approximately $167 billion, a 60% increase from before [2] - The market views the tariffs as a way to pressure the EU and China to finalize trade deals before deadlines [3] - The US government needs to be cautious about tariffs, as excessive tariffs, such as $700 billion previously, can lead to backlash [4] - The US aims to secure deals with major countries before August 1st [5] Liquidity and Crypto - Raising the debt ceiling reduces liquidity, prompting the Treasury to adjust its financing strategies [6] - Treasury is delaying refilling the Treasury General Account, changing supplemental leverage ratio rules, increasing buybacks, and issuing more T-bills [7] - Stable coin legislation could create an additional $800 billion in T-bill demand [7] - Bitcoin serves as a means to circumvent capital controls in certain countries [8]