If you can do it from scratch, you can take shortcuts.But if you can only take shortcuts, you can’t do it from scratch. ...

Yes, but:(1) Relative strength is critical because the US business model is issuance of the global reserve currency. Losing relative status means losing that.(2) Much of the US economy is fake & financialized. Look at the debt and production graphs.https://t.co/rhWLOzMui5Inev May (@InevMay):@balajis You might be right but this graph is misleading. If you look at the USA for example, its proportion of global economy has shrank (% on the graph), but the actual volume of its "piece of the pie" has increased. ...

@tszzl Good point. My counterargument is that (a) those countries are essentially just protectorates of the US, and hence downstream of US elections and (b) the specific dynamics differ, but the financial and political situation is similarly dire.https://t.co/W1ED5QxAe8 https://t.co/kfEh9ChtC7Lee Fang (@lhfang):@balajis Most western countries have proportional elections and/or run off elections, not winner take all. Zero-sum and gerrymandering are features of Anglo countries like Canada, the UK and especial ...

Roon (@tszzl) is correct that the still largely positive-sum culture of Silicon Valley and the zero-sum culture of Washington DC couldn't be more different.I'd argue the next step is to realize that the Internet is now bigger than the physical Silicon Valley. Most major technologies in the physical world have already largely decentralized away from SV, as has been widely reported. And digital decentralization is also well underway if you look at the graphs for unicorns, crypto, and AI:Then, the next step is ...

Western politics is zero-sum. For every 51% election winner, a 49% loser.However, the intensity of the competition actually turns it negative-sum. Each succeeding 51% election winner weaponizes (and thereby destroys) legacy institutions to fend off the 49% loser, leaving less for both parties after each cycle.The political conflict is so intense because the West is in relative economic decline. Unfortunately, intense conflict further accelerates that decline.roon (@tszzl):one thing that was immediately palp ...

They built a monument to Stolypin after his death in 1911.Then the communists tore it down, once they gained power.And then today’s Russian government put a monument back up again in 2012, after the communists lost power.But that cycle took one hundred years. https://t.co/YTZT8H2crK ...

There’s an alternate history where Russia didn’t go communist.In 1911, a man named Pyotr Stolypin was Prime Minister of Russia. Staunchly anti-war and traditionalist, he was nevertheless also an energetic reformer. He suppressed violent revolutionaries, but gave peasants their own land to farm. He was the path to a peaceful capitalist reformation in Russia. Lenin hated him, and called him the hangman-in-chief.Then he was assassinated. Historians still debate whether it was a conspiracy or a lone gunman. But ...

CA is bankrupt. The wealth seizure has started. And it will only get worse.It's not wise to be publicly successful in the bluest city in the bluest state in the union, when blues think you're automating their jobs, and when political violence is rising.https://t.co/wKiL0YwXwUJack Altman (@jaltma):Loved having @balajis on Uncapped this week.He's one of the highest horsepower people I've ever met, he truly thinks for himself, and he is fearless in making long term calls that are deeply unintuitive to most peo ...

Imagine someone solving the Riemann hypothesis on the bridge of a sinking Titanic.They're genuinely making progress — historical progress, even! — but they aren't solving their most important problem.This is how I think about doing high tech in highly unstable jurisdictions.@jason (@Jason):You should have two escape hatches if you’re super successful in Silicon Valley:1. Sovereign state outside of California2. Functional/safe country outside of USAThey Great Confiscation is coming ...

These kids may be individually “beta”, but when they grow up and work together they’re collectively alpha. https://t.co/NUzbHnBpH5 ...