市场策略报告 · 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------|-------------------------------------------| | 图 13 下周重要事件 | | 下周全球主要国家重要事件 | | 日 期 | 国家/地区 | 事件 | | 2024-05-20 | 美国 | 5月美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话 | | 2024-05-20 | 美国 | 5月美联储理事巴尔发表讲话 | | 2024-05-21 | 美国 | 5月美联储理事沃勒发表讲话 | | 2024-05-22 | 英国 | 5月英国央行行长贝利在伦敦政经学院发表讲话 | | 2024-05-23 | 美国 | 5月美联储公布货币政策会议纪要 | | 资料来源: Wind, 商创证券 | | | 市场策略报告 证券研究报告 股票投资评级 买入 相对沪深 300 指数涨幅 15％以上 中性 相对沪深300指数涨幅－5％-5％之间 2. 投资建议的评级标准 行业指数）的涨跌幅相对同期的沪深 300 张君贝，策略研究助理，南洋理工大学商业分 ...

行业评级：看好 医药行业重点公司2023年年报/2024年一季报总结暨投资展望： 分化态势延续，关注业绩确定性标的和拐点方向 王斌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [18]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 839 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.12%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 162 million yuan, up 23.58% [7]. - The company is expected to continue stable growth in 2024, driven by the release of new production capacity and the ongoing trend of import substitution in the pharmaceutical excipients market [18]. - The company has successfully completed the import substitution for several key products, contributing significantly to domestic sales growth, which reached 739 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 21.09% [18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 839 million yuan and a net profit of 162 million yuan, with a quarterly revenue of 238 million yuan in Q1 2024, showing a slight decline of 4.05% year-on-year [7][8]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 977 million yuan, 1.124 billion yuan, and 1.281 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.5%, 15.0%, and 13.9% respectively [8][9]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from cellulose and its derivatives reached 388 million yuan in 2023, up 18.02%, with expectations for continued growth in 2024 due to the recovery in demand for plant-based capsules [1]. - The starch and its derivatives segment generated 202 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.06%, benefiting from increased demand for pandemic-related pharmaceuticals [1]. - Other products, including PVP K30 and cross-linked PVP, saw a revenue increase of 35.84%, totaling 177 million yuan [1]. Capacity Expansion - The new pharmaceutical excipient production base is set to significantly increase capacity for key products such as microcrystalline cellulose and hydroxypropyl methylcellulose, which will be crucial for driving performance growth in the next 2-3 years [1][18].

[Table_Title] 金融板块配置价值提升 [Table_Rank] 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 握图目录 市场策略报告 证券研究报告 图 1 周内核心指数行业表现 市场策略报告 · 证券研究报告 资料来源:Wind, 商创证券 2 超长期特别国债平滑发行，降准紧迫性有限。财政部发布《关于公布 2024 年一般 国债、超长期特别国债发行有关安排的通知》，披露万亿超长期特别国债将在 11 月中旬 前分 22 次发行完毕，其中 6-10 月是密集发行期，月发行量预估在 1350-1850 亿元；首 批 400 亿元 30 年期特别国债以 2.57%招标发行。在国债发行拉长节奏、政府债发行降 速的背景下，债市供给端冲击有限，叠加周内 MLF 等量平价续作，后续降准紧迫性有 限。从国债期限来看，30 年期是主要类型，结合本次特别国债重点聚焦加快实现高水平 科技自立自强、推进城乡融合发展等，将对国产替代、基建等形成长期支持，改善投资 格局，间接利好权益市场。 本周市场震荡运行，地产链带动下市场风格偏大盘。其中上证 50、沪深 300 微涨， 科创 50 跌超 1.5%。行业层面，房地产行业涨超 1 ...

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[Table_Title] 农药价格下滑致业绩承压，优创项目奠定未来成长 [Table_ReportDate] 扬农化工(600486)公司简评报告 | 2024.05.15 [评Ta级ble：_R an买k]入 核心观点 [ Table_Authors] [⚫T abl事e_件Su：mm ary] 翟绪丽 扬农化工发布2023年年度报告，报告期内公司实现营收114.78亿元， 首席分析师 同比减少 27.41%；实现归母净利润 15.65 亿元，同比减少 12.77 %； SAC执证编号：S0110522010001 2023Q4公司实现营收22.04亿元，同比减少18.63 %，环比减少0.14 %； zhaixuli@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152683 实现归母净利润2.04亿元，同比增长31.09 %，环比减少13.81 %。 ⚫ 原药销量保持增长，农药价格下滑导致利润下降。 甄理 根据公司生产经营数据，2023年公司原药产/销量分别为9.09万吨/9.65 化工行业研究助理 万吨，分别同比-1.88%/+10.43%；公司制剂产/销量分别为3.39万吨/3.57 zhenli@s ...

[Table_Summary] [Table_Title] 外用制剂快速增长，盈利能力稳健提升 [Table_ReportDate] 九典制药(300705)公司简评报告 | 2024.05.15 [Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 核心观点 [Table_Authors] 王斌 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522030002 wangbin3@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152644 [市场指数走势（最近 Table_Chart] 1 年） 资料来源：聚源数据 -0.5 0 0.5 1 15-May 27-Jul 8-Oct20-Dec 2-Mar14-May 九典制药 沪深300 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------------| | [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 | | | 最新收盘价（元） | 37.57 | | 一年内最高 / 最低价（元） | 39.70/18.80 | | 市盈率（当前） | 31.09 | | 市净率（当前） | 6.41 | | 总股本（亿股） | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in phosphate ore production, with a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to maintain growth in 2023 [1] - The average price of phosphate rock in 2023 was 990 RMB/ton, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, contributing to the company's profitability [4] - The company has completed several projects in its Guangxi base, which are expected to enhance production capacity and profitability in the future [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.00 RMB per 10 shares, reflecting a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio to 77.7% [5] Summary of Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.32 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, and a net profit of 766 million RMB, an increase of 1.1% [3][6] - The company’s revenue for Q4 2023 was 1.25 billion RMB, up 25.81% year-on-year, with a net profit of 275 million RMB, reflecting a 62.76% increase year-on-year [3] - The company’s phosphate ore production reached 2.992 million tons in 2023, an increase of 480,000 tons from 2022 [4] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 936 million RMB, 1.206 billion RMB, and 1.485 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.73, 2.22, and 2.74 RMB [5][6] - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 20.3% in 2024, 21.8% in 2025, and 17.6% in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [11][26]. Core Views - The company's human-derived protein business showed fluctuations, but the acquisition of a 31.161% stake in Nanda Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance revenue [1]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 411 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.44%, but reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 76 million yuan [4]. - The HIV innovative drug sales are improving, with a total revenue of approximately 73.58 million yuan in 2023, marking a 119.67% increase [18]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.11 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 5.67 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 37.9% [5][26]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 0.76 billion yuan in 2023 to a loss of 0.35 billion yuan in 2024, and then to a profit of 0.35 billion yuan in 2025 [5][26]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.18 yuan in 2023 to 0.08 yuan in 2025 [5][26]. Market Position - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 16.10 yuan, with a one-year high of 17.40 yuan and a low of 9.63 yuan [3]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is -75.14, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 6.08 [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a quarterly growth trend in HIV drug sales, driven by the successful inclusion of the drug Ainomit in the medical insurance directory [18]. - The revenue from HIV new drugs is projected to continue growing, with a significant increase in new patient numbers and improved medication adherence [18].

[Table_Title] 周期下行韧性十足，依然看好未来业绩弹性 [Table_ReportDate] 华鲁恒升(600426)公司简评报告 | 2024.05.14 [评Ta级ble：_R an买k]入 核心观点 [ Table_Authors] [⚫T abl事e_件Su：mm公a司ry]发 布2023年年报，报告期内实现营业收入272.60亿元，同 翟绪丽 比-9.87%，实现归母净利润35.76亿元，同比-43.14%，其中Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 首席分析师 分别实现归母净利润 7.82/9.28/12.18/6.49 亿元，分别同比-67.82%/- SAC执证编号：S0110522010001 55.40%/+18.84%/-14.09。 zhaixuli@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152683 ⚫ 2023年产品产销量同比增长，但价格下滑拖累业绩下滑。2023年11月， 荆州项目一期建成投产，新增尿素产能 100 万吨/年，醋酸产能 100 万 [市Ta场bl指e数_Ch走a势rt]（ 最近1年） 吨/年，DMF产能15万吨/年，混甲胺产能15万吨/年，2023年12月德 0. ...