[Table_Summary] [Table_Title] 净利润大幅增长，精细化管理成效显著 [Table_ReportDate] 聚灿光电(300708)公司简评报告 | 2024.10.16 [Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 核心观点 [Table_Authors] 何立中 电子行业首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522110002 helizhong@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152682 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 资料来源：聚源数据 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 16-Oct 27-Dec 8-Mar19-May 30-Jul 10-Oct 聚灿光电 沪深300 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------| | [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 | | | 最新收盘价（元） | 11.21 | | 一年内最高 / 最低价（元） | 13.75/7.34 | | 市盈率（当前） | 83.71 | | 市净率（当前） | 2.83 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5][29]. Core Insights - Recent pig prices have risen against the trend due to increased demand and reduced supply, with the national average price for live pigs at 18.15 CNY/kg as of October 12, 2024 [5][10]. - The supply of pigs has decreased following the consumption during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, leading to a tighter market and increased entry of secondary fattening businesses [5][10]. - The demand for heavier pigs is increasing as temperatures drop, and slaughterhouses are facing challenges in sourcing pigs, which supports the price outlook [5][10]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and low valuations, such as Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, which have advantageous breeding costs and strong growth potential [5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Important Information Update - The agricultural sector experienced a decline of 7.59% last week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.03 percentage points [8]. - The top five performing companies in the sector were ST Tianbang (4.60%), Guotou Zhonglu (3.86%), COFCO Technology (2.76%), Jingliang B (2.17%), and Zhongchong Co. (1.92%) [8]. 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Agricultural Products & Vegetable Price Index - As of October 14, 2024, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.59% to 131.31, with a year-on-year increase of 10.21% [10]. - Vegetable prices have risen by 12.68% year-on-year [10]. 2.2 Live Pig, Pork Prices & Breeding Sow Inventory - In June 2024, live pig inventory increased by 1.70% month-on-month but decreased by 4.60% year-on-year [12]. - In August 2024, the breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.10% month-on-month and by 4.80% year-on-year [12]. 2.3 Broiler Chicken & Chick Prices - As of October 11, 2024, the price of broiler chickens rose to 7.34 CNY/kg, while chick prices remained at 4.20 CNY each [14]. 2.4 Aquaculture Market - As of October 11, 2024, sea cucumber prices were stable at 130 CNY/kg, scallop prices at 12 CNY/kg, and abalone prices at 70 CNY/kg [16]. 2.5 Corn and Soybean Market - Global corn consumption is projected to rise to 1,223.32 million tons, with ending stocks decreasing to 306.52 million tons, maintaining a stock-to-use ratio of 25% [18]. - Global soybean consumption is expected to decrease to 402.72 million tons, with ending stocks increasing to 134.65 million tons, maintaining a stock-to-use ratio of 33% [18]. 3. Industry Information and Important Company Announcements - In September 2024, Minhe Livestock reported a sale of 19.29 million chicks, a year-on-year decrease of 9.58%, but a revenue increase of 57.17% year-on-year [23].

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - Tesla has launched the Cybercab, an autonomous taxi with a production cost below $30,000, expected to be available to the public by 2026 [5] - The passenger car market showed signs of recovery in September, with new energy vehicle penetration exceeding 50% for three consecutive months [6] - The report suggests investment in companies such as BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Tesla's supply chain [2][6] Summary by Sections 1. Tesla's Launch of Cybercab and Optimus Production Costs - Tesla introduced the Cybercab, an autonomous taxi, with a cost below $30,000 and plans for production in 2026 [5] - The company also unveiled the Robovan, capable of carrying 20 people, and the Optimus robot with production costs between $20,000 and $30,000 [5] 2. Recovery of the Passenger Car Market in September - Retail sales of narrow passenger cars in September reached 2.109 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% and a month-on-month increase of 10.6% [6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in September was 53.3%, up 16.4 percentage points from the same period last year [6] - Wholesale data showed a total of 2.504 million passenger cars were sold in September, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [6] 3. Market Review - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 4.6% last week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 3.3% [7] - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the automotive sector is 2.25, with passenger cars at 2.65 [7] 4. Industry Data - In September 2024, total automotive sales were 2.809 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [12] - New energy vehicle sales in September reached 1.287 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42.3% [12] 5. Industry Announcements and News - Companies like Seres and Shanghai Yanpu have made significant announcements regarding asset acquisitions and earnings forecasts [23][25] - The launch of new models, such as the Xiaopeng P7+, highlights advancements in AI technology within the automotive sector [25] 6. Valuation of Major Companies - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the automotive sector, including BYD and Great Wall Motors, with varying price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and market capitalizations [26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, China's integrated circuit export value was USD 14.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.3%, showing a slowdown compared to the previous four months [1] - The export quantity of integrated circuits in September 2024 was 27.68 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 13.9%, maintaining high growth and exceeding the 10.5% growth rate of August [1] - The average selling price (ASP) of integrated circuit exports in September 2024 was USD 0.518, slightly up from USD 0.501 in August [1] - The import value of integrated circuits in September 2024 was USD 35.98 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [1] - The import quantity of integrated circuits in September 2024 was 49.73 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [1] - The ASP of integrated circuit imports in September 2024 was USD 0.724, up from USD 0.664 in August [1] - Cumulatively, from January to September 2024, the import value of integrated circuits was 2.4 times that of exports, with total exports of USD 117.85 billion and imports of USD 281.12 billion [1] - Despite the slowdown in export growth in September, the increase in both import and export ASPs indicates a need to monitor the integrated circuit import and export situation in the coming months to accurately predict the performance of companies in the electronic industry chain [1] Summary by Sections Export Performance - September 2024 integrated circuit export value: USD 14.35 billion, growth rate: 6.3% [1] - September 2024 integrated circuit export quantity: 27.68 billion pieces, growth rate: 13.9% [1] - September 2024 export ASP: USD 0.518, up from USD 0.501 in August [1] Import Performance - September 2024 integrated circuit import value: USD 35.98 billion, growth rate: 11% [1] - September 2024 integrated circuit import quantity: 49.73 billion pieces, growth rate: 16.7% [1] - September 2024 import ASP: USD 0.724, up from USD 0.664 in August [1] Cumulative Data - From January to September 2024, total exports: USD 117.85 billion, total imports: USD 281.12 billion, with imports being 2.4 times exports [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with good cash flow and low valuations [1] - Pay attention to investment opportunities related to Huawei's Mate 70 smartphone and self-controllable technologies [1]

[Table_Rank] 评级： 看好 [Table_Authors] 李田 分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522090002 litian11@sczq.com.cn [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 13-Oct 24-Dec 5-Mar16-May 27-Jul 7-Oct 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 商社周报：8 月社零环比表现乏力， 舒适、生活感成短途游潮流 商社周报：中秋国庆临近，出境游短 途游景气、传统礼品市场承压 商社周报：五部门联合印发通知完善 市内免税店政策，政策驱动周度行情 [Table_Title] 商社周报：CPI 较弱静待政策出台，2024 双十一开启 [Table_ReportDate] 商贸零售 | 行业简评报告 | 2024.10.15 核心观点 [Table_Summary] ⚫ 周度行情：本周（2024.10.8-2024.10.11）多数宽基指数下跌。上证综 指数下跌 3.56%，深证成指下跌 4.45%，创业板指下跌 3.41%。本周 （202 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metal industry as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that industrial metal prices are fluctuating, with a focus on the anticipated impact of counter-cyclical regulatory policies [3] - Copper prices have slightly declined, with expectations for gradual recovery in domestic demand [4] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased slightly, while inventory levels have decreased [5] - Magnesium prices have seen a slight increase, but downstream demand remains weak [6] - Gold prices may face short-term pressure due to higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data [7] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Sector Overview - The overall market declined by 3.56% during the week, with the non-ferrous metal sector experiencing a 6.08% drop, underperforming the broader market by 2.52% [13] - Specific declines include precious metals down 6.88%, copper down 6.28%, aluminum down 4.90%, and lithium down 8.74% [14] 2. Industry News and Announcements 2.1 Key Industry News - Lithium source signed a $200 million investment agreement with Indonesia's sovereign fund to expand production capacity significantly [18] - Ivanhoe Mines reduced its annual copper and zinc production guidance despite record output from its Congo operations [18] - Rusal plans to double aluminum production capacity at its Siberian facility [18] - Zijin Mining announced a $1 billion acquisition of Newmont's Akyem gold mine project in Ghana [19] 2.2 Key Industry Announcements - Various companies, including Shengda Resources and New Weiling, announced stock buybacks and equity incentive plans [20][21][22] 3. Non-Ferrous Metal Database 3.1 Industrial Metal Database - LME copper fell by 1.59% to $9,803 per ton, while SHFE copper dropped by 2.04% to ¥77,220 per ton [23][24] - LME aluminum decreased by 1.01% to $2,638 per ton, while SHFE aluminum rose by 1.78% to ¥20,825 per ton [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry has shown a negative performance across all major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 3.56% and the basic chemical sector down by 6.40% during the week of October 7 to October 11, 2024 [4][5] - Key chemical products have experienced significant price fluctuations, with notable increases in sulfuric acid (+9.76%) and adipic acid (+8.64%), while liquid chlorine saw a sharp decline (-29.41%) [14][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading chemical companies that possess comprehensive advantages beyond mere cost or technology, suggesting a focus on companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng for their investment value [4] Price Review - The report highlights the price movements of various chemical products, noting significant increases in sulfuric acid, adipic acid, and polyester POY, while liquid chlorine and ammonium chloride faced substantial declines [14][4] - The price spread for adipic acid surged by 168.73%, indicating strong market dynamics [14] Investment Focus - The report identifies several investment themes within the chemical sector: 1. Continuous growth in global tire demand, with domestic companies gaining market share, suggesting investment in companies like Sailun Tire and Senqilin [4] 2. Strong demand for agricultural chemicals driven by high grain prices and increasing arable land, recommending investments in companies with rich phosphate resources [4] 3. Anticipated growth in the refrigerant industry due to quota concentration among leading companies, with a focus on companies like Juhua Co. and Yonghe Co. [4] Company Announcements - Sailun Tire expects a net profit of approximately 3.21 billion to 3.28 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.52% to 61.98% [17] - Hubei Yihua forecasts a net profit of approximately 755 million to 790 million yuan for the same period, reflecting a growth of 94.04% to 103.04% [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - TSMC's revenue in September increased by 39.6% year-on-year, reaching NT$251.87 billion, with a year-to-date revenue of NT$2025.85 billion, reflecting a 31.9% growth [5][16] - TSMC has maintained a monthly revenue growth rate of over 30% since March 2024, showing significant improvement compared to 2023 [5][16] - The upcoming earnings call on October 17, 2024, is anticipated to provide detailed insights on operational capacity, expansion speed, and pricing strategies, particularly regarding AI computing-related advanced packaging capacity [6][20] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor revenue share in mainland China is only 7%, indicating substantial growth potential [3] - The semiconductor equipment sector continues to show optimism, with a focus on M&A opportunities within the electronics industry [3] Market Performance - From October 8 to October 11, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.56%, while the CITIC Electronics sector decreased by 0.57%. Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 8.16%, and the CITIC Electronics sector increased by 3.08% [7][21] - The performance of electronic sub-sectors from October 8 to October 11 showed significant gains in integrated circuits (5.18%), semiconductors (3.98%), discrete devices (2.74%), semiconductor materials (2.33%), and semiconductor equipment (0.16%) [27][28] Stock Performance - The top ten performing stocks in the electronics sector from October 8 to October 11 included Guomin Technology (up 42.6%), JieJie Microelectronics (up 27.5%), and Runxin Technology (up 26.9%) [29][30] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on semiconductor trends related to computing power, storage, and PCB [32]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Positive [1] Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry shows significant marginal improvement in revenue and profit, with the high base effect from pandemic-related products now eliminated. The overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing landscape is experiencing a steady recovery. The medical insurance fund's income remains stable, with sufficient reserves, while expenditure growth shows resilience. Overall, the industry fundamentals are in a bottoming and recovery phase [2][3]. - As of October 10, 2024, the PE (ttm) for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector (Shenwan) is 32.0 times, with a premium rate of 142.42% compared to the CSI 300 index. The median PE (ttm) since 2012 is 36.19 times, indicating a valuation percentile of 30.52%. The current valuation level still has a safety margin and upward elasticity, although it has moved away from the significantly undervalued range after a short-term rapid increase. The performance of individual stocks is expected to diverge as the market stabilizes, presenting structural opportunities [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has shown a notable improvement in overall performance, with the high base effect from pandemic-related products dissipating. For the first eight months of 2024, the cumulative revenue growth rate is -0.5%, and the profit growth rate is -0.3% [7]. Medical Insurance Fund - As of July 2024, the total income of the basic medical insurance fund reached 1.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.02%, while expenditures were 1.38 trillion yuan, up 14.87%. The trend of expenditure growth outpacing income growth continues, but the fund remains in a positive balance [9]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the following investment lines: 1. The pharmaceutical sector, particularly companies with clear operational trends and growth potential. 2. Medical service companies, which are expected to benefit from an aging population and stable profit margins. 3. Medical equipment companies, which will see growth as the demand for new configurations and upgrades continues. 4. Blood products, which are expected to maintain high certainty and growth potential. 5. Research reagents/services, with specific companies recommended for investment [14][16].

Market Performance - A-shares have entered a self-reinforcing upward phase, increasing uncertainty in future operations[2] - During the National Day holiday, Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index surged, with both the Hang Seng Tech Index and A50 index rising over 10%[3] - There is a clear demand for A-shares to catch up post-holiday due to the market closure during the holiday[3] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rebounded in September, while the service PMI continued to weaken, indicating overall economic weakness[4] - Historical data shows that stock market performance can diverge significantly from economic fundamentals, with potential for large discrepancies[6] Market Dynamics - Stock market performance is generally highly correlated with economic fundamentals, but various factors influence this relationship[7] - The self-fulfilling mechanism of asset performance can lead to cycles of "rise-buy-rise," creating uncertainty in future market evolution[7] Long-term Outlook - Over a longer time frame, stock market trends are expected to revert to economic fundamentals, with potential pressure if policy measures are insufficient[7] - Risk warning: Policies may not meet expectations, which could impact market performance negatively[8]