＃industryId＃ 钢铁 证券研究报告 ＃ investSug gestion＃ 推荐 （ ＃ investSuggesti onChange＃ 维持 ） 需求持续疲弱，黑色商品价格承压下行 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 08 月 11 日 投资要点 ＃summary＃ 成材需求明显下降，恐慌情绪再度袭扰推动钢价延续下跌 此前钢市价格虽有反弹，但受到周初日元加息带来的流动性风险事件冲击影响，大宗商品 价格普跌。而周内成材数据显示终端需求进一步走弱，螺纹钢和热轧表需分别为 190.76 万 吨和 298.51 万吨，环比分别下滑 25 万吨和 23 万吨，下游仍多以按需采购为主。螺纹钢方 面，受到此前新旧国标切换的影响，产量下滑明显，本期仅为 168.5 万吨，环比下降 29 万 吨。根据 Mysteel 统计，当前旧标螺纹存量占比尚存 72.31%，抛售压力仍然较大，螺纹钢 价格或有进一步下行压力；热轧方面，前期受东南亚等地区相继增加关税，对热轧需求抑 制的影响加速显现，叠加热轧社库水位处于历史高位，本轮热轧价格下跌幅度相较螺纹价 格更大。短期来看，当前正值高温酷暑，下游工地开工进度放缓，且 ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 模拟芯片设计 模拟芯片行业拐点已至，收并购有望优化格局加速成长 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 07 月 26 日 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ ( ＃ investSuggesti onChange＃ (维持) 行 业 深 度 研 究 报 告 | --- | |----------| | 重点公司 | | 重点公司 | | 南芯科技 | | 艾为电子 | | 纳芯微 | 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 姚康 yaokang@xyzq.com.cn S0190520080007 ＃assAuthor＃ 研究助理： 刘珂瑞 liukerui@xyzq.com.cn 投资要点 | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | summary＃全球模拟芯片市场超过 800 亿美元，且具有产品品类多，下游应用广泛等特 | | 点 ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 白酒 行 业 研 究 维持 ） ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ (＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ | --- | |----------| | 重点公司 | | 重点公司 | | 今世缘 | | 古井贡酒 | | 贵州茅台 | 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 ＃relatedReport＃ ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 郭晓东 guoxiaodong@xyzq.com.cn S0190521080002 汪润 wangrun22@xyzq.com.cn S0190524060004 行 业 深 度 研 究 报 告 ＃title＃ 借鉴海外，我国白酒消费税改革路径探讨 ——白酒系列专题一 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 8 月 4 日 投资要点 ＃⚫summary 美国酒类消费税为联邦和州政府共享税，其中联邦在生产环节从量征税，各 ＃ 州多数在批零环节从价/从量计税。1）联邦政府在生产环节征收酒税，且以从 量定额计征；得益于美国酒类严格按照生产商/进口商-批发商-零售商三级分 销体系流通，且各州通过许可证或者政府控 ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 电力 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn S0190518030002 zhulixian@xyzq.com.cn ＃title＃ 新型电力体系电价篇（2）： 从长协到现货，电价演绎怎么看？ ＃ investSuggestio n＃ 推荐 ＃ investSuggestionChang e＃ （维持） ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 8 月 9 日 投资要点 ＃summary＃ 我国电力交易体系回顾：国内交易架构以市场为主、计划为辅；发电侧煤电 （全部入市）及风光水核等电源（部分入市）配套工商业用户交易，上网电 价竞价形成；小部分计划电源（低价）配套居民及农业用户交易，执行目录 电价。其中上网竞价为核心环节，其以长协电价为主、现货电价为辅。本文 主要探讨长协与现货合同衔接机制、现货定价因素及后续电价趋势展望。 ＃分e析m师ail：Author＃ 蔡屹 ＃研a究ss助Au理th：or＃ 长协与现货合同如何衔接：长协合同需按照典型负荷曲线分解至每日每时（按 统一或分时价格结算），现货市场弥补其与实际发用电曲线的电量偏差（按日 前及实时现货价格结算）；发电企业收益= ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment suggestion for the textile manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on opportunities in Indonesia [1]. Core Insights - The textile industry is shifting towards Indonesia, which, despite being a developing country, offers abundant and low-cost labor, making it a significant manufacturing base after Vietnam. The stable political environment and increasing openness to foreign investment enhance its attractiveness [1][9]. - Indonesia's GDP reached $1.37 trillion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0% from 2015 to 2023, and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% from 2023 to 2029 [9]. - The country has a large population of 276 million, with a labor force of 149 million expected by February 2024, contributing to low manufacturing wages, which were approximately 1,402 RMB in 2022 [12][11]. - The textile and garment industry in Indonesia is recognized as a priority sector for foreign investment, benefiting from tax incentives and investment allowances [31][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Situation of Indonesia - Indonesia's GDP per capita is relatively low at $4,941 in 2023, comparable to China's levels in 2010-2011 [9]. - The country has a favorable demographic structure with a high birth rate, supporting a growing labor force [11][12]. 2. Foreign Investment Environment - Indonesia's foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions were historically high but have been relaxed, with significant improvements in the investment climate since 2020 [28]. - The government has introduced policies to simplify business registration and licensing, making the textile sector a focus for foreign investment [31]. 3. Domestic Analysis - The textile manufacturing sector is primarily located on Java Island, with Central and West Java being popular investment destinations [28]. - Indonesia is a major exporter of garments and footwear, ranking 13th globally in garment exports, with a total export value of $10.076 billion in 2022 [1][4]. 4. Textile Industry Overview - The textile industry in Indonesia is characterized by a small export scale compared to its potential, with garment exports showing stable growth [4]. - The country is positioned as a significant player in the global footwear market, with exports contributing to its economic development [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Qilu Bank [2] Core Views - Qilu Bank has a strong local presence and is actively expanding its branch network, focusing on county-level financial services to drive growth [2][3] - The bank's asset quality is improving, with a declining non-performing loan ratio and increasing provision coverage [3][4] - The bank's performance has been robust, with revenue and net profit growth outpacing industry averages, and it is expected to maintain this trend in the coming years [3][4] Summary by Sections Historical Development - Qilu Bank, established in 1996, has evolved into a partner bank for small and medium-sized enterprises, focusing on serving local economies and adapting to national strategic initiatives [7][8] Regional Distribution - The bank has a comprehensive coverage in Shandong province with 188 branches, and it is expanding its presence in other regions, including Tianjin [9][12] - As of 2023, 44% of its loans are directed towards Jinan, with a growing market share in the province [9][11] Economic Context - Shandong province's GDP reached 9.2 trillion yuan in 2023, maintaining its position as the third-largest in China, with a growth rate of 6% [15][16] - The province is undergoing a transformation towards new economic drivers, which is beneficial for local banks like Qilu [15][20] Growth Strategy - Qilu Bank is focusing on expanding its loan portfolio, particularly in public infrastructure and retail sectors, while enhancing its county-level financial services [3][4] - The bank's strategy aligns with local government initiatives, supporting infrastructure and manufacturing upgrades [3][4] Asset Quality - The bank's non-performing loan ratio has decreased to 1.25% as of Q1 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 305%, indicating strong asset quality management [3][4] Performance Outlook - The bank's revenue and net profit growth rates are projected to be 5.2% and 15.2% respectively from 2024 to 2026, with earnings per share expected to rise steadily [3][4]

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 银行 ＃title＃ 信贷偏弱，静待政策发力 ——2024 年 7 月金融数据点评 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ （＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 维持） ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 8 月 14 日 投资要点 ＃⚫ summary 信贷偏弱，低基数下社融增速回升至 ＃ 8.2%。2024 年 7 月社融新增 7708 亿元，同 比多增 2342 亿元，拆分结构来看： （1）对实体经济发放的人民币贷款-767 亿元，同比少增 1131 亿元。7 月为信贷 小月，当前信贷增长已由供给约束转为需求约束，实体需求不足+"挤水分"的持 续影响，以及 6 月冲量或消耗了部分项目储备，共同导致信贷负增。 （2）非标三项合计-755 亿元，同比少减 970 亿元。分项来看，委托贷款+346 亿 元，信托贷款-26 亿元；表外开票规模-1075 亿元，同比少减 888 亿元，合并表内 贴现后净开票+4511 亿元，同比多增 2877 亿元。 （3）直接融资合计+2259 亿元，同比多增 183 亿元，其中企业债+2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.267 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.106 billion yuan, up 55.23% year-on-year [3] - The company has announced a three-year cash dividend plan, proposing fixed cash dividends of 750 million yuan, 850 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - The company’s three main business segments are showing steady growth, with significant contributions from asset disposals [3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 28.122 billion yuan, 30.320 billion yuan, and 32.214 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5.9%, 7.8%, and 6.2% respectively [2][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.511 billion yuan, 1.725 billion yuan, and 1.984 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.7%, 14.2%, and 15.0% respectively [2][4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 7.8% in 2023 to 9.3% in 2026 [2][4] - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.1x, 10.6x, and 9.2x for 2024-2026 based on the closing price as of August 13, 2024 [3][4]

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 传媒 ＃title＃ 重点数据跟踪：1）综艺方面，本期（07/08-07/11）腾讯视频/爱奇艺/优酷视频/芒 果 TV 分别各有 12/10/9/8 款综艺进入 TOP30，环比上期（07/01-07/05）+0/-1/- 1/+0 部。2）剧集方面，本期腾讯视频/爱奇艺/优酷视频/芒果 TV 分别各有 14/14/9/4 款剧集进入 TOP30，环比上期-3/+3/+2/-1 部。 核心观点：经历大小盘分化行情的演绎，当前传媒板块估值及基金持仓均回到历 ＃investSuggestion ＃ 推荐 (维持) ＃ investSuggestionChange ＃ 行 业 周 报 重点公司 重点公司 评级 相关报告 ＃relatedReport＃ 《【兴证传媒】每周一报 20240804： Kimi 推出生成 PPT 服务，暑期重磅影 片密集上映》 《【兴证传媒】每周一报 20240728： 7 月国产版号如期而至，大模型、多模 态百舸争流》 《【兴证传媒】每周一报 20240721： OpenAI 发布 GPT-4o mini，暑期档新 片表现优异》 ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 农林牧渔 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ( ＃ ＃ investSuggestion Change＃ 维持 ） 行 业 周 报 重点公司 重点公司 评级 海大集团 买入 温氏股份 增持 牧原股份 增持 普莱柯 增持 金龙鱼 增持 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证农业】周报：猪价连续 调涨，毛鸡价格回落》 《【兴证农业】周报：猪价偏强 震荡，鸡苗价格上涨》 《【兴证农业】周报：猪价窄幅 调整，毛鸡价格回落》 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 纪宇泽 jiyuze@xyzq.com.cn S0190522080004 曹心蕊 caoxinrui@xyzq.com.cn S0190521050002 潘江滢 panjiangying@xyzq.com.cn S0190524060001 ＃title＃ 猪价上涨预期持续兑现，价格向上突破 (农业行业周报 20240805-20240809) ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 08 月 11 日 投资要点 ＃summary＃ ⚫ 板块周表现 ...