Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The acceleration of the "old-for-new" policy in 2025 is expected to boost domestic demand for home appliances, with 27 provincial-level regions in China already implementing related work as of January 4, 2025 [2][15] - The continuation of the "old-for-new" policy is anticipated to enhance the valuation and fundamentals of the home appliance sector [15] Summary by Sections 1. Policy and Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" subsidy program commenced on January 1, 2025, and will cover the entire year, with no policy gaps observed [3][15] - The subsidy will apply to eight categories of home appliances, with a subsidy rate of 15%-20% based on energy efficiency levels [4][15] 2. Price Tracking - Prices for copper, aluminum, hot-rolled sheets, and ABS have shown a slight decline, with copper averaging 73,725 CNY/ton (-0.81% MoM), aluminum at 19,800 CNY/ton (-0.04% MoM), ABS at 11,825 CNY/ton (-0.13% MoM), and hot-rolled sheets at 3,725 CNY/ton (-0.17% MoM) [5][18] - The exchange rate of the RMB has increased, with the USD/CNY average at 7.3370, up 0.45% week-on-week [21] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading home appliance companies with strong financial capabilities and comprehensive channel coverage, particularly in the white goods sector, recommending Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances [6][26] - It also highlights the potential for growth in emerging markets and the resilience of home appliance exports, recommending Hisense Visual, TCL Electronics, Ecovacs, and Roborock for their export potential [6][26] - The kitchen appliance sector is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy and favorable real estate policies, with recommendations for Boss Electric and Vatti [6][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is expected to see an upward trend in fundamentals supported by policies, with a recommendation to increase allocation in automotive stocks [6][16] - The implementation of trade-in policies has shown significant stimulating effects, and the retail sales of various brands are expected to rise due to new car launches and a low base from the previous year [6][16] - The report suggests that the automotive sector's volume and price are both showing marginal improvements, indicating a positive outlook for automotive demand in the coming year [6][16] Summary by Sections Current Dynamics - The Tank 500 Hi4-Z model was launched on January 1, 2025, priced at 363,800 yuan, featuring a dual-motor plug-in hybrid system with a total power of 645 kW and a torque of 1195 N·m, achieving 0-100 km/h in just 4 seconds [4][14][45] - In December 2024, BYD delivered 514,809 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, while Li Auto delivered 58,513 vehicles, up 16.2% year-on-year [5][15] - The report anticipates continued growth in sales for 2025 as major automakers focus on overseas markets and government policies remain supportive [5][15] Sector Performance and Valuation - The automotive sector underperformed the market from December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, with a decline of 7.4%, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's drop of 5.6% [3][18] - The PE-TTM for the automotive sector is reported at 27.9, with historical valuation percentiles indicating a relatively high valuation for passenger vehicles at 81.7% [3][25] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the automotive sector include BYD, Great Wall Motors, Changan Automobile, and Li Auto, while component stocks recommended are Fuyao Glass, Top Group, and Silver Wheel [6][16]

行业周报 | 钢铁 证券研究报告 | | | 相关研究 【兴证金属】岁末已至，钢价季节性走弱 -2024.12.29 【兴证金属】钢铁：矿价震荡，宏观政策 释放积极信号-2024.12.15 【兴证金属】钢铁：黑色商品价格震荡， 矿价偏弱，焦价偏弱 （1）铁矿石：铁矿石方面，全球铁矿石发货量 3479.4 万吨，周环比上升 487.8 万吨。基 本面上，本期铁矿石供需双弱，受前期发运量节奏的影响，铁矿石到港量小幅下降，港口 疏港量平稳，港口库存小幅去库。目前整体冬储价格偏低，冬储意愿较弱，短期铁矿价格 或维持震荡态势，关注后续宏观政策落地力度。（2）焦炭：本期焦炭价格偏弱运行。在焦 企成本支撑走弱之际，当前价格仍有向下压力。临近年末，年前下游钢厂有一定备货需求， 焦炭价格预计维持偏弱运行。 板块重点数据跟踪 需求偏弱：本期（2024.12.30-2025.1.3，下同）全国建筑钢材成交量均值 10.37 万吨，周 环比下降 0.53 万吨。根据 Mysteel 数据测算显示，螺纹钢表观消费 197.26 万吨，周环比 下降 22.3 万吨；热轧板卷表观消费 302.73 万吨，周环比下降 6.6 万吨。 S0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that thermal coal prices have bottomed out and are beginning to recover, while coking coal long-term contracts for Q1 2025 have been established [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: As of January 3, the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price is 775 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 5 CNY/ton. The long-term contract price for thermal coal (Q5500) in December 2024 is 696 CNY/ton, down 0.4% month-on-month and 2.0% year-on-year [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal prices show a mixed trend, with the cost premium for coke narrowing [31]. - **Downstream Changes**: Steel prices are fluctuating at low levels, and pig iron production has slightly decreased [35]. - **Futures**: The price spread for dual coking coal futures has decreased [40]. - **Transportation**: Both sea and land transportation prices continue to decline [41]. 2. Weekly Market Review (December 30, 2024 - January 3, 2025) - The report provides a performance overview of major indices and coal-related stocks, indicating a mixed performance with some stocks showing significant gains while others have declined [43]. 3. Weekly Outlook (December 29, 2024 - January 4, 2025) - The report lists various coal companies along with their ratings, closing prices, and weekly performance, indicating a generally positive outlook for several companies despite some fluctuations [45].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Visual (600060.SH) is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic color TV market is experiencing a recovery driven by national subsidies, with Hisense maintaining its leading position in market share. The company is expected to benefit from the continuation of these subsidies and the introduction of new products under the Vidda brand [3][9]. - The penetration of Mini LED technology is accelerating, which is expected to enhance profit margins. Hisense is actively expanding its Mini LED product offerings, leading to a significant increase in sales and market share [3][13]. - The report anticipates a positive trend in both domestic and international sales, with a focus on high-end product upgrades and channel expansion, particularly in emerging markets [21][27]. Summary by Sections 1. National Subsidies and Product Completeness - The national subsidy policy has significantly boosted domestic color TV sales, with online and offline sales increasing by 18% and 38% respectively in Q4 2024. Hisense's market share has improved, with online and offline sales share reaching 30.1% and 34.2% respectively [9][10]. - The introduction of new Vidda products has expanded the brand's price range and improved market share, particularly in the Mini LED segment [17][19]. 2. Global Channel Upgrades - The global TV market remains stable, with overseas markets growing faster than domestic ones. Hisense is narrowing the gap with leading competitors like Samsung, with a 4 percentage point difference in global shipment share [21][23]. - The upcoming CES 2025 will showcase Hisense's new AI picture quality chip, aimed at enhancing product performance and increasing brand visibility in international markets [21][27]. 3. Panel Price Stability - The report notes a decline in LCD panel prices in Q4 2024, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures for Hisense. Prices for various sizes of panels have decreased by 4.2% to 2.1% year-on-year [25][26]. 4. Profit Forecast and Rating - Hisense is projected to see continued growth in domestic sales and improved profitability due to the ongoing national subsidies and product enhancements. The EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 1.46, 1.74, and 1.97 yuan respectively, with a dynamic PE of 13.5x, 11.3x, and 9.9x [27][28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a recovery in the paper industry due to multiple regions implementing national subsidy policies for home improvement, which is expected to boost demand [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand recovery and suggests investing in quality stocks in the export sector [2] - The report indicates that the home furnishing sector is experiencing a seasonal peak in demand, with significant increases in new and second-hand housing transactions in major cities [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The light industry sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 6.46% compared to a 5.17% drop in the CSI 300 index, resulting in a relative underperformance of 1.29 percentage points [12] - The home furnishing, paper, packaging, and entertainment sectors experienced varying declines, with home furnishing down 5.54% and paper down 7.68% [12] 2. Paper Sector Tracking - The average price of corrugated paper is 2938 CNY/ton, up 0.4% week-on-week, while boxboard is at 3774 CNY/ton, up 0.3% [36] - The average price of imported needle pulp is 795 USD/ton, up 1.3% week-on-week, and imported broadleaf pulp is 570 USD/ton, up 3.6% [24][31] - The report recommends industry leaders such as Sun Paper and suggests monitoring companies like Bohui Paper and Shanying International as the industry enters a recovery phase [4] 3. Home Furnishing Sector Tracking - In December, major cities saw a 51.18% week-on-week increase in new home transactions, totaling 15488 units, while second-hand home transactions are expected to reach 2490 million square meters, up 46% year-on-year [46][4] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector that are likely to benefit from national subsidy policies, including Gujia Home, Mousse, and Oppein [4] 4. Other Sector Insights - The report notes that the outdoor products sector has resumed normal order levels after inventory adjustments, with companies like Zhejiang Natural launching stock incentive plans [4] - It highlights the potential growth in AI glasses and suggests monitoring companies involved in this segment, such as Mingyue Lenses and Kangnait Optical [4]

| 行业评级 | 中性(维持) | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 01 月 05 日 | 相关研究 【兴证房地产】新房二手房周报：持续用 力推动房地产市场止跌回稳，明年要实施 更加积极的财政政策-2024.12.29 【兴证房地产】新房二手房周报：全国新 建商品房成交规模单月同比转正，国常会 再提专项债收储-2024.12.22 【兴证地产】2025 年房地产行业年度策 略报告： "止跌回稳"，拐点渐近 -2024.12.16 S0190520080003 jinluyu@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：洪波 S0190523040002 hongbo@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 中性（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 01 月 05 日 新房二手房周报：国常会研究推进城市更新工 作，央行提择机降准降息 投资要点： 行业周报 | 房地产 证券研究报告 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/15 分析师：靳璐瑜 周专题：上海徐汇地块溢价率 40%，是回暖还是分化？本周上海完成新一轮土拍， 其中徐汇地块溢价率 40%，该幅地块位于上海内环外，直线距离滨江 1.3 公里，规划 建面 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the defense and military industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The defense and military industry is expected to experience a structural reversal in demand as it approaches the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in 2025, with potential growth extending into 2026 [6][21]. - Recent performance indicates a decline in the defense and military index, which fell by 9.94% over the past two weeks, underperforming compared to major indices [16][23]. - The report highlights that the industry may have passed a weak phase, with a demand turning point approaching due to the execution of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Insights - The defense and military index has underperformed, ranking 12th among 30 primary industry indices, with a decline of 9.94% in the last two weeks [16]. - Key stocks in the sector showed significant price changes, with Construction Industry rising by 26.62% while others like Aviation Power and AVIC High-Tech saw declines [16]. 2. Market Performance - The defense and military index dropped by 9.57% in the week from December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, and by 8.88% over the past two weeks [23]. - The index has consistently underperformed against the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index during this period [23]. 3. Major Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Companies like Aviation Power and AVIC Shenfei are expected to see varying changes in sales to related parties, with some experiencing significant declines [17]. - The report notes that the overall industry demand is anticipated to grow, particularly in platform products and consumable weapons, driven by the military's centennial goals [21]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the completion of production tasks by major companies in the industry, indicating a strong operational performance [18]. - The leadership changes within the China Shipbuilding Group and the National Defense Science and Technology Industry Administration are noted, reflecting ongoing reforms in the military sector [19][20]. 5. Recent Key Reports - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring related transactions and suggests strategic positioning in anticipation of the structural demand reversal [6]. 6. Financing Balance - The financing balance for the military sector is reported at 965.99 billion, representing 3.95% of the sector's market value, which is higher than the overall A-share market [30]. 7. New Listings Tracking - Several new companies have entered the military sector since June 2023, with varying market performances and valuations [28].

行业周报 | 基础化工 证券研究报告 报告日期 2025 年 1 月 5 日 相关研究 【 兴 证 化 工 】 化 工 行 业 周 报 ———乙 烷 进 口 关 税 下 调 ，光 刻 胶 企 业 恒 坤 新 材 IPO 获 受 理 ， 继 续 关 注 化 工 核 心 资 产 及 新 材 料 成 长 （ 20241223-20241227） -2024.12.30 【 兴 证 化 工 】 化 工 行 业 周 报 ———OLED 发 光 材 料 采 购 量 创 新 高 ， 继 续 重 点 关 注 化 工 核 心 资 产 及 新 材 料 成 长 （ 20241216-20241220） -2024.12.22 议 积 极 定 调 ， 关 注 化 工 核 心 资 产 估 值 修 复 以 及 光 刻 胶 、 OLED 产 业 链 自 主 可 控 （ 20241209-20241213） -2024.12.15 S0190523070006 liuzihan@xyzq.com.cn 投资要点： 中 长 期 投 资 推 荐 ： 价 值 类 ： 具 备 业 绩 安 全 边 际 的 龙 头 白 马 价 值 凸 显 。 化 工 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a continuous decline in cotton prices and a decrease in chick prices, indicating potential challenges in the agricultural sector [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The industry index showed a decline of 5.17% during the period from December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025 [13] - Individual stock performance varied, with notable declines in several companies within the livestock and poultry sectors [17] 2. Livestock and Poultry Prices - The price of live pigs is reported at 16.24 yuan/kg, reflecting an increase of 2.85% [26] - The price of chicks has decreased by 25%, now at 3.00 yuan [26] 3. Grain Prices - Domestic corn prices are at 2037.14 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.35% [25] - The price of domestic wheat is reported at 2396.50 yuan/ton, showing a decrease of 0.70% [25] 4. Oil and Fat Prices - The price of soybean oil is at 7956.00 yuan/ton, down by 1.49% [25] - Palm oil prices have decreased by 3.42%, now at 1130.00 yuan/ton [25] 5. Sugar, Cotton, and Rubber Prices - Domestic cotton prices are at 14727.00 yuan/ton, with a marginal increase of 0.01% [25] - The price of domestic sugar is reported at 6110.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.33% [25] 6. Aquaculture Prices - The price of shrimp is trending upwards, while other aquatic products like abalone and scallops are also monitored for price changes [29]