重点公司 评级 中际旭创 增持 天孚通信 增持 新易盛 增持 中瓷电子 增持 鼎通科技 增持 中兴通讯 增持 亿联网络 增持 英维克 增持 意华股份 增持 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 相关报告 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 通信 行 业 周 报 《【兴证通信】周观点：牛市行 情通信如何配置？》2024-10-07 《【兴证通信】周观点：大涨行 情通信如何配置？》2024-09-29 《【兴证通信】周观点：o1 模型 加速 AI 产业趋势》2024-09-22 分析师： 章林 zhanglin20@xyzq.com.cn S0190520070002 代小笛 daixiaodi@xyzq.com.cn S0190521090001 仇新宇 qiuxinyu@xyzq.com.cn S0190523070005 朱锟旭 zhukunxu@xyzq.com.cn S0190524040001 许梓豪 xuzihao@xyzq.com.cn S0190524070002 研究助理： 王灵境 wanglingjing@xyzq.com.cn 【兴证通信】通信行业周报（10.08-10.13）： 掘金三季报 推荐 ( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook due to recent financial and fiscal policy measures that exceed expectations [3][10]. Core Insights - Recent financial and fiscal policies are expected to support local debt resolution, stabilize the real estate market, and enhance the asset quality outlook for banks. The anticipated measures include a significant increase in debt limits and the issuance of special government bonds to bolster the core tier one capital of major state-owned banks [3][10]. - The report highlights that while net interest margins may continue to face pressure, the rate of decline is expected to slow compared to previous forecasts. Additionally, the government plans to enhance the capital of six major banks, which will improve their operational stability and dividend sustainability [3][10]. - The report recommends specific banks based on two main strategies: improving risk appetite and debt resolution expectations, with a focus on banks like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Qilu Bank; and a dividend strategy benefiting from the central bank's SFISF tool, recommending Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China [3][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The CITIC Bank Index slightly decreased by 0.60%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.65 percentage points. Notable performers included Postal Savings Bank (+3.61%) and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (+3.36%) [7]. - The Ministry of Finance announced a series of targeted policy measures to support local debt resolution and enhance the capital of major banks, which is expected to improve their credit issuance capabilities and support economic recovery [7][12]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the government's commitment to increasing fiscal policy measures to address economic challenges, including supporting local governments in managing hidden debts and stabilizing the real estate market through various financial instruments [11][12]. - The establishment of the SFISF by the central bank aims to enhance liquidity for financial institutions, allowing them to exchange lower-quality assets for higher-quality, liquid assets, thereby improving their capital acquisition capabilities [10][14]. Company Dynamics - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, have announced adjustments to their existing mortgage rates, aligning them with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [16]. - The report includes updates on stock purchases by major shareholders in various banks, indicating ongoing confidence in the banking sector's stability and growth potential [17].

行 ＃title＃ 北 研 行 बार 周 周 究 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------|-------| | | 重点公司 | 评级 | | | 美的集团 | 增持 | | | | | | | 海尔智家 | 买入 | | | 石头科技 | 增持 | | | 海信视像 | 增持 | | | 新宝股份 | 增持 | yanxiaoqing@xyzq.com.cn S0190521020002 24W41 人民币汇率较 24W39 上升。2024 年 10 月 8 日-10 月 11 日，美元兑人民 币汇率周度均价 7.0803，较 24W39 上升 0.97%，同比-3.02%。 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 《【兴证家电】8 月家电出口景 气延续，继续看好家电配置价 值》2024-09-15 《【兴证家电】以旧换新加速落 地 ， 政 策 兑 现 弹 性 初 显 》 2024-09-08 《【兴证家电】家电行业 24 年 中报总结：板块内部分化，白电 韧性充足》2024-09-03 24W41 铜、铝、ABS、热轧板卷价格较 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment suggestion for the environmental protection industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The environmental protection industry is experiencing a valuation shift towards utility-like levels, with evident internal differentiation. Traditional environmental sectors are characterized by "low valuation, high dividend" traits, and their valuations are expected to be reassessed due to relatively high profit certainty. New industries are emerging, creating new environmental governance demands, such as semiconductor waste gas treatment, leading to the birth of several growth-oriented companies [3][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of sustainable and stable operational capabilities in the environmental protection industry. It suggests focusing on "low valuation, high dividend" stocks in the short term, while long-term attention should be given to companies with outstanding operational capabilities and potential for excess profits, as well as leading companies with significant potential in their second entrepreneurial phase [33][35] Summary by Sections Important Data Tracking - From October 8 to October 11, 2024, the national carbon market saw a trading volume of 979,500 tons, a significant increase of 521.74% compared to the previous period. The closing price for carbon emission allowances was 100.95 CNY/ton, showing a day-on-day decrease of 1.90% but an increase of 1.48% compared to the previous period [2][13] - In August 2024, the export volume of biodiesel and its mixtures was 60,000 tons, down 62.78% year-on-year and 40.82% month-on-month. The export price was 1,069.43 USD/ton, up 0.64% year-on-year and 1.93% month-on-month. The export volume of UCO was 299,000 tons, up 90.64% year-on-year and 66.11% month-on-month, with an export price of 897.24 USD/ton, down 1.82% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month [2][18] Sector Performance - During the period from October 8 to October 11, the A-share environmental protection index fell by 3.53%, while the H-share environmental protection index dropped by 10.38%. The overall market performance saw the Shanghai Composite Index decrease by 3.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.45%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.41% [20][21] - The report highlights the top five companies with the highest gains during this period: Deepwater Haina (31.10%), Chuangyuan Technology (18.49%), Zhongchuang Environmental Protection (11.39%), Qingyan Environment (10.63%), and Xianhe Environmental Protection (7.11%). Conversely, the bottom five companies were Haixin Nengke (-23.02%), Huakong Saige (-13.11%), Shenwu Energy Saving (-12.38%), Taihe Water (-12.03%), and China Tianying (-11.86%) [20] Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment have established a special fund management method for the treatment of waste electrical and electronic products, aiming to promote the recycling of waste materials. The fund will be managed by the two ministries and will be in effect from 2024 to 2027 [4][31] Key Company Announcements - The report includes significant announcements from key companies in the environmental sector, such as the planned major asset restructuring by Yuanda Environmental Protection and the dividend distribution plan by Qingda Environmental Protection [32][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the computer industry [1] Core Viewpoints - After significant volatility, the report suggests focusing more on industry changes and high-cost performance leaders [3][7] - Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18, the computer industry has seen a cumulative increase of 37.7%, with a peak increase of 63.5%, ranking 2nd out of 30 industries [3][7] - The report indicates that despite recent market pullbacks, the computer sector has shown strong alpha, attributed to previous low expectations and a notable recovery in recent forecasts [3][7] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting investment strategies post-volatility, highlighting the need for individual stock selection based on industry changes and cost performance [3][7] - It notes that public fund holdings in the sector have increased from 2.52% at the end of Q2 to an estimated 3% currently, with a historical median of 3.68% since 2019 [3][7] Securities IT Review - The report highlights the high elasticity of securities IT stocks, which have outperformed the market significantly since recent policy support [9][26] - It reviews historical bull markets, noting that securities IT stocks have consistently shown higher returns compared to the overall market during these periods [11][26] - The report identifies key companies in the securities IT sector, including Tonghuashun and Dongfang Wealth, which have demonstrated strong performance in previous bull markets [25][26] Current Marginal Changes in Industry Directions - The report identifies significant changes in sectors such as Xinchuang, Securities IT, Government IT, and Intelligent Driving, driven by policy support and market confidence [3][7] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring these sectors for potential investment opportunities as they are currently in a phase of expected improvement [3][7] Recommendations for Continued Focus - The report suggests ongoing attention to specific companies within the Securities IT sector, such as Hengsheng Electronics and Tonghuashun, as well as those in the Xinchuang sector like China Software and Kingsoft Office [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the media industry, with specific recommendations for companies within the gaming, traditional culture, and AI application sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The media sector has experienced three rounds of bottoming since 2018, currently in the early stages of the third round of recovery. Recent breakout events and the ongoing AI revolution are expected to drive a sustained rebound in the media industry [3][4][9]. - The gaming market is anticipated to accelerate recovery, driven by the success of titles like "Black Myth: Wukong," which has set new records for domestic AAA games, and the increasing demand from the "he economy" trend [14][16]. - The report highlights the potential for a new wave of mergers and acquisitions in the media sector, supported by regulatory changes that may facilitate cross-industry mergers and acquisitions [15][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - From October 8 to October 11, 2024, the Shenwan Media sector declined by 8.57%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 5.31 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 5.15 percentage points [7][8]. Key Data Tracking - In the gaming sector, 109 new games received approval in September 2024, contributing to a total of 1,034 approvals for the year. The success of "Black Myth: Wukong" has significantly boosted market confidence [18][22]. - In terms of variety shows, Mango TV had 6 exclusive shows in the Top 20, while Tencent Video also had 6, indicating strong competition among platforms [30][31]. - For drama series, Tencent Video led with 8 exclusive shows in the Top 20, followed by iQIYI with 4 and Youku with 2 [32][33]. Investment Recommendations - Three main investment themes are recommended: 1. **Gaming Sector**: Companies like Kayi Network and Yaoji Technology are highlighted for their potential growth due to the success of "Black Myth: Wukong" [16][18]. 2. **Traditional Culture**: Companies with strong IP reserves, such as Guomai Culture and Light Media, are recommended for their potential in high-quality cultural products [16][18]. 3. **AI Applications**: Companies like Kunlun Wanwei are suggested for their advancements in AI technology and applications [16][17]. Major Events - The launch of Kimi's exploration version, which significantly enhances search capabilities, and ByteDance's release of the AI smart earphone Ola Friend, are notable developments in the AI sector [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the steel sector, indicating a positive outlook for recovery in steel stocks [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that fiscal policies are expected to continue to strengthen, supporting a recovery in steel stocks. Recent signals from the Ministry of Finance suggest increased efforts to manage local government debt risks and enhance support for housing projects, which could positively impact demand for steel [4][32]. - The report anticipates that with the implementation of fiscal policies, steel prices are likely to rise, and the black commodity sector is expected to maintain a rebound trend. It highlights that the current industry profitability is at a low point, making it a favorable time to invest in companies with better demand performance, particularly in the plate sector [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The steel sector experienced a decline of 4.93%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.37 percentage points [7]. 2. Fundamental Weekly Tracking 2.1 Steel Prices and Iron Ore Inventory - National steel prices remained stable, with average prices for rebar at 3,840 CNY/ton in Beijing, showing a slight decrease of 3 CNY/ton [11]. - The global iron ore shipment volume was 29.812 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.969 million tons, while daily molten iron production increased by 5.06 tons [4][11]. 2.2 Production and Demand Recovery - The national blast furnace operating rate rose to 80.79%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points week-on-week. The total output of five major steel products reached 8.6382 million tons, up by 10.24% [26][29]. - The average transaction volume of construction steel was 132,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.24 million tons, indicating a recovery in demand [4][11]. 3. Industry Dynamics 3.1 Key Industry News - The Ministry of Finance announced plans to increase fiscal policy efforts to support economic development, including measures to manage local government debt and enhance support for housing projects [32][34]. 3.2 Company Announcements - A company announced a plan for a significant share reduction by a board member due to personal financial needs, which may impact investor sentiment [35]. 4. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks key data such as steel prices, production rates, and inventory levels, indicating a mixed but generally improving outlook for the steel industry [4][11][26].

Investment Rating - The report recommends the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting specific companies for investment [4][5]. Core Views - The report indicates that the policy implementation efficiency is high, with adjustments to existing loan rates expected to support the market [5]. - The real estate sector is experiencing significant policy support aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting recovery [4][28]. Market Overview - Major indices performance for the week (2024.10.07-2024.10.13) shows the Hang Seng Real Estate Index decreased by 8.8%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 6.5% [3][6]. - The report notes that the property management sector has seen varied performance, with some companies experiencing declines [9][10]. Company Performance - Notable companies with significant declines include: - Goldin Properties down 4.6% - China Overseas Grand Oceans down 9.1% - Poly Property down 13.6% [9][10]. - Conversely, companies like Power Assets Holdings and Cheung Kong Infrastructure showed slight increases of 0.8% and 0.5% respectively [8][9]. Stock Short Selling - The report highlights the top three companies for short selling in the property management sector: - Beike at 24.4% - China Overseas Development at 23.3% - Jianfa International at 23.1% [15][17]. - For the Hong Kong local stocks, the top three for short selling were: - Wharf Holdings at 37.1% - Wharf Real Estate Investment at 32.2% - New World Development at 30.5% [17]. Property Management Holdings - The report notes increases in Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings for companies such as Country Garden Services, Greentown Management, and Goldin Properties [11][13]. - As of the end of the week, Poly Property, Vanke, and Sunac China had Stock Connect holdings of 52.0%, 50.5%, and 33.8% respectively [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment recommendation for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The official launch of HarmonyOS NEXT on October 8, 2024, marks a significant step in building a full-scenario application ecosystem, with initial models including Huawei Mate 60 series, Mate X5 series, and MatePad Pro 13.2-inch series [1] - The new HarmonyOS NEXT is developed based on a microkernel architecture, featuring a new system structure, native AI capabilities, distributed soft bus, and Star Shield security architecture, aiming for comprehensive intelligence from the kernel to system applications [1] - The WeChat native version for HarmonyOS has begun internal testing, with over 20 Tencent products adapting to the HarmonyOS NEXT version, indicating strong support from major applications [1] - Huawei has launched an incentive program for developers to encourage the creation of native HarmonyOS applications, with a commitment to invest 6 billion yuan annually to foster innovation within the ecosystem [1] Summary by Sections - **Event Overview**: HarmonyOS NEXT public testing commenced on October 8, 2024, with several Huawei devices eligible for upgrade through the "My Huawei" app [1] - **Application Development**: The number of officially launched apps in the Harmony ecosystem has nearly doubled from 577 at the end of June to over 1100 by October 2024 [1] - **Developer Engagement**: As of September 2024, the number of registered developers in Huawei's developer alliance has surged to 6.75 million, significantly enhancing the Harmony ecosystem [1] - **Recommended Companies**: The report suggests focusing on companies such as Softcom Power, Runhe Software, and others involved in the HarmonyOS ecosystem [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the computer industry [3]. Core Insights - The recent policy document titled "Opinions on Accelerating the Development and Utilization of Public Data Resources" is expected to catalyze the growth of the data factor industry, with a focus on establishing a framework for public data resource development by 2025 and a more mature system by 2030 [3][4]. - The report highlights the expansion of public data supply and the flourishing of application scenarios, emphasizing the need for improved data sharing and collaboration across regions and systems [3][4]. - The exploration of public data authorization and operation is anticipated to gradually form a closed-loop model, benefiting leading companies in the data factor sector as policies continue to be introduced [3][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Framework - The central government has initiated a systematic deployment to encourage public data authorization and operation, which includes establishing a classification and grading mechanism for public data [3]. - The report outlines the need for clear data management institutions, authorization conditions, operational models, and safety management responsibilities [3]. Market Opportunities - The report identifies potential beneficiaries in the infrastructure sector, local operators, and vertical application providers, including companies like Taiji Co., Yunsai Zhili, and Wanda Information [4]. - The ongoing policy support is expected to foster innovation in data products and enhance data service capabilities, leading to a more robust data economy [3][4].