Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - The core contradiction in China's economy remains its internal demand, influenced by the balance of internal and external factors and the rhythm of the RMB exchange rate[2] - In 2024, the global macroeconomic landscape is characterized by five key themes: persistent inflation in the US, weak demand and policy expansion in China, pricing opportunities in upstream commodities driven by liquidity and geopolitical factors, global manufacturing supply chain restructuring, and the continued strength of the US dollar[3] - The US MAGA (Make America Great Again) policy framework has been effectively implemented for nearly a decade, regardless of the political party in power[5] Group 2: US Economic Policies - The MAGA policy aims to bring high-end manufacturing back to the US, strengthen technological leadership, and restructure the global supply chain for low-end manufacturing[9] - The Biden administration's MAGA framework has led to significant private sector investment and persistent core inflation, with technology stocks outperforming expectations[12] - The US economy is expected to face uncertainties in 2025, including downstream inflation, monetary policy direction, and fiscal policy pressures due to high government debt levels[15][18] Group 3: China's Economic Recovery - China's economic recovery is expected to follow three stages: liquidity easing, recovery of the real estate sector, and guiding capacity clearance to restore asset prices[22] - The current weak internal demand in China is not solely due to insufficient policy support but is also a result of a necessary transition in the real estate sector from financial products to consumer goods[11] - The probability of a strong stimulus similar to the 2008 four trillion yuan package is low, given the significant differences in the current economic fundamentals[12] Group 4: Global Commodity and Market Outlook - The global commodity market is influenced by geopolitical factors and liquidity expectations, with gold prices rising over 30% this year due to high inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions[84] - The restructuring of global manufacturing supply chains is evident, with China's machinery exports growing by 9.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall export growth rate of 4.6%[96] - The outlook for major asset classes in 2025 suggests that US stocks and bonds will be heavily influenced by monetary policy, while China's stock market may benefit from liquidity-driven trading opportunities[24]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Research J P M O R G A N | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 22 November 2024 | | Correction (See disclosures for details) | | This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland Chin ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Research J P M O R G A N | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 22 November 2024 | | Correction (See disclosures for details) | | This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland Chin ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 FICC Research Economics 22 November 2024 Completed: 22-Nov-24, 09:28 GMT Released: 22-Nov-24, 22:49 GMT Restricted - External China Outlook A shallow recovery in Q4 In view of improved data and announced policy support, we expect a mild recovery in Q4 growth momentum. We maintain our below-consensus 4% growth forecast for 2025 on structural headwinds, looming tariff hikes, and absence of DM-like demand-side stimulus. We note LG debt resolution has accelerated. Local-government d ...

J.P.Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research 18 November 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. The Metal Monitor China scraps the export tax rebate for aluminum and copper products; week recap & ahead | --- | --- | |-------------------------------- ...

November 18, 2024 01:00 AM GMT M Update | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Macroeconomic Outlook - GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%[2] - Inflation is expected to rise moderately, with CPI growth around 1% and PPI growth around 0%[3] - Fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase significantly, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and a broad fiscal deficit rate of 8.2%-9.6%[3] Policy Focus - Policies will focus on external shocks, macroeconomic regulation, and long-term planning, with a balance between supply and demand[4] - Real estate policies will continue to intensify, with reforms in the housing market and local government debt resolution[4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will deepen reforms and promote modernization, with a focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading[121] Asset Allocation - Gold prices are expected to rise, potentially reaching $3000/ounce, driven by global uncertainty and monetary policy adjustments[128] - Crude oil prices are expected to slightly decline due to OPEC production increases and relaxed US energy regulations[129] - A-shares are recommended for overweight allocation, while the bond market is cautiously optimistic[130] Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include mergers and acquisitions, technological innovation, leading companies, new supply chains, and elderly care and fertility sectors[4]

18 November 2024 | 12:23AM HKT Kinger Lau, CFA +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Timothy Moe, CFA +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Si Fu, Ph.D. +852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Kevin Wang, CFA +852-2978-2446 | kevin.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 China 2025 Equity Outlook: Policy showtime Explore > A policy-managed growth deceleration, and economic rotation GDP growth will decelera ...

Key Takeaways from Citi 2024 China Investor Conference and Tech Tours Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Technology and Communication sector in China, including semiconductor, automotive, telecommunications, and software industries Core Insights 1. **Apple Supply Chain**: Positive outlook for the iPhone 17 upgrade cycle, with several components seeing upgrades such as microphones and casing [2][3] 2. **Panel Market**: Large-sized TV panels are currently undersupplied, leading to opportunities for panel makers. The industry utilization rate (UTR) is expected to remain above seasonal levels [2][3][9] 3. **Automotive Growth**: The automotive supply chain anticipates double-digit growth in 2025, driven by increased content and specific customer demands [2][3][10] 4. **AI and XR Products**: AI-driven products, particularly in the XR space, are expected to create new demand, with companies investing heavily in AR glasses and AI capabilities [2][11] 5. **Semiconductor Trends**: Advanced packaging (AP) is becoming increasingly important for China's semiconductor industry, with OSAT capacity utilization rates improving [4][14] 6. **Tariff Impact**: Limited direct impacts from potential tariff hikes on the supply chain, as many companies have overseas facilities [5][35] Financial Performance and Projections 1. **Smartphone ASP and Margins**: Average selling prices (ASP) for smartphones rose by 30% YoY, with margins expected to improve due to a shift towards premium products [8] 2. **Panel Makers' Profitability**: TCL expects net profits of Rmb5 billion in 2024, with projections for Rmb8-10 billion in 2025, driven by better TV panel pricing and demand [22] 3. **Lens Technology**: Anticipates 30% YoY growth in automotive business for 2024, supported by strong demand from major customers [10][32] 4. **Victory Giant Tech**: Expects AI revenue to double or triple in 2025 compared to 2024, with a significant share in mainstream AI servers [23][13] Sector-Specific Insights Telecommunications - **China Mobile**: Targets revenue growth in 2H24, with a focus on projects with better profitability. Capex is expected to be lower than full-year targets [15] - **Optical Communication**: Innolight sees upside risks in 800G demand, with expectations for further growth in 1.6T demand by 2026 [16] Software and IT Services - **Kingdee**: Maintains breakeven and operating cash flow targets for 2025, with a focus on AI applications driving growth [6][17] - **TravelSky**: Expects net profit growth to outpace revenue growth, with a gradual recovery in profitability [20] Semiconductor - **Chroma ATE**: Positive outlook for metrology foundry qualifications, with expectations for YoY growth in 2025 [14] - **Will Semi**: Stable shipment expectations for Android smartphones, with potential volume upside due to consumer electronics stimulus measures [41] Additional Considerations - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: Companies are diversifying supply chains and adjusting production capacities in response to geopolitical concerns and tariff implications [10][25][30] - **Investment in AI**: Companies across various sectors are increasingly investing in AI capabilities, with expectations for significant revenue growth from AI applications in the near future [19][18] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the Citi 2024 China Investor Conference and Tech Tours, highlighting the positive trends and growth opportunities across various sectors within the technology and communication industry.

Summary of China Resources Sanjiu (000999.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Sanjiu (CR999) - **Industry**: Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and pharmaceutical sector Key Financial Performance - **3Q24 Revenue**: Rmb5,634 million, representing a 3% year-over-year increase [1] - **3Q24 Net Profit**: Rmb561 million, a 7% year-over-year increase, or a 7% decrease when excluding one-off items [1] - **Gross Margin**: Slight decline to 50.5% from 50.8% in 3Q23 [1] - **Net Margin**: Increased to 10.0% from 9.6% in 3Q23 [1] - **KPC Revenue**: Rmb1.9 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase [1] - **KPC Net Profit**: Rmb158 million, a 3% year-over-year decrease [1] Management Insights - **Cost Management**: Management expects a decrease in selling cost ratio, with SG&A and R&D expense ratio decreasing to 35.4% from 36.7% in 3Q23 [1] - **Acquisition Update**: The acquisition of Tasly is expected to be completed in 1Q25 [1] Segment Performance - **Cold Medicines**: Achieved management's full-year target by 3Q24 [2] - **Prescription Drugs**: Stable growth observed in 3Q24 [2] - **TCM Granules**: Sales showed steady growth in 3Q24 [2] - **TCM Decoction**: Business optimization is ongoing [2] TCM GPO Update - **Anhui TCM GPO**: Announced to conduct TCM GPO in 2024, impacting OTC drugs with minimal sales for CR999 [3] - **Hubei TCM GPO**: Related products include brucea javanica seed oil, which is not a key product for CR999 [3] KPC Performance - **Manufacturing Revenue**: Slight decline in 9M24 [4] - **Distribution Revenue**: Improved by more than 5% year-over-year [4] - **Sales Recovery Expectation**: Management expects sales recovery for Xuesaitong injection in 2025 [4] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Buy rating maintained for CR Sanjiu [5] - **Target Price**: Rmb52, based on a DCF model [5] - **Market Cap**: Rmb61,775 million (approximately US$8,545 million) [7] Risks - **Sales Growth Risks**: Slower-than-expected growth in great health sales and TCM granules [19] - **Cost Risks**: Higher costs of TCM herbs could negatively affect gross margins [19] - **KPC Consolidation Risks**: Potential challenges in the consolidation of KPC [19] Valuation Metrics - **2024E Net Profit**: Rmb3,337 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb2.598 [6] - **2025E Net Profit**: Rmb3,790 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb2.950 [6] - **2026E Net Profit**: Rmb4,305 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb3.351 [6] Conclusion - China Resources Sanjiu shows mild growth in 3Q24 with stable performance across its segments. The management's focus on cost reduction and the upcoming acquisition of Tasly are expected to support future growth. However, potential risks related to sales growth and cost pressures remain significant considerations for investors.