证券研究报告·行业动态 大厂资本开支持续，鸿蒙 PC 带动信创需求 核心观点： 25Q1，腾讯资本开支为 274.76 亿元，同比提高 91.35%，其中用 于 AI 相关业务开展的资本开支为 230 亿元，占资本开支总比重 已超过 80%。阿里巴巴资本开支为 246.12 亿元，同比提高 120.68%，已签约但尚未计提的资本性支出承诺金额为 453.21 亿 元，同比增长 146.68%。考虑到当前算力芯片采购受中美贸易摩 擦影响有所放缓，叠加阿里资本性支出承诺金额大幅提升，大 厂 AI 资本开支仍然持续。鸿蒙电脑将于 5 月 19 日正式发布， 国产操作系统实现重大突破。其中，国产软件厂商支持下鸿蒙 生态加速完善，小艺带来本地化 AI 体验。 行情回顾： 本周，计算机（申万）指数下跌 1.26%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.38pp。 投资组合： 本期建议：朗新集团、税友股份、博思软件、指南针、新大陆、 国能日新、顶点软件、道通科技 上期回顾：上期建议组合为——朗新集团、税友股份、博思软件、 京北方、新大陆、国能日新、顶点软件、道通科技，同权重下上 期组合涨幅为-1.01%，同期计算机（申万）指数涨幅为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Insights - The Guinea Axis mine has been shut down due to the revocation of mining licenses by the government, leading to a strong rebound in alumina prices. If the mine does not resume production this year, a global increase of approximately 20 million tons is still expected, which is sufficient to meet the demand for electrolytic aluminum [1][3]. - The high concentration of ore in certain regions may lead to price volatility, making companies with high ore security more attractive to investors [5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Guinea Axis Mine Shutdown - The Guinea transitional government has revoked mining licenses for several companies, including 11 bauxite mining companies, with the Axis mine being the only one maintaining normal production. The shutdown is seen as a government move to reclaim mining rights and adjust profit-sharing terms, which has led to a direct market reversal [3][4]. Section 2: Global Supply and Demand Analysis - The Axis mine was expected to produce 23.2 million tons in 2024 and 38-40 million tons in 2025. If it remains closed, there will be a reduction of about 8 million tons in supply. However, other companies are expected to increase production, leading to a net increase of approximately 1.44 million tons of alumina [4]. - The overall alumina supply situation remains in surplus, with a projected excess of 530,000 tons after accounting for various production increases and decreases [4]. Section 3: Price Assessment - The report suggests that if the Axis mine does not return to production, the price of bauxite may stabilize around $75 per ton. If it resumes quickly, the price may test $70 per ton. This price range corresponds to the complete cost for high-cost domestic regions [5]. Section 4: Industrial Metals Overview - Industrial metals prices have shown mixed movements, with copper prices increasing by 0.02%, aluminum by 2.6%, lead by 0.9%, zinc by 1.4%, and tin by 2.9% [2][10]. The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to improve due to the recovery of the Chinese economy and the growth of the new energy sector [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the military industry, indicating a potential recovery in performance by 2025, with a focus on companies with order recovery expectations and performance support [2][10][44]. Core Insights - The military sector reported a total revenue of 764.903 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.16%. Key segments showing positive growth include shipbuilding, aerospace engines, and aviation [2][10]. - The net profit for the military sector decreased to 26.655 billion yuan in 2024, down 38.01% year-on-year, primarily due to lower downstream demand and price reductions for certain products [12][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show signs of recovery, particularly in ground equipment and aerospace segments, with a projected increase in associated transaction amounts [2][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The military sector's revenue growth was driven by shipbuilding (10.87% increase), aerospace engines (4.46% increase), and aviation (2.75% increase), while ground equipment and commercial aerospace saw significant declines [10][12]. - The report highlights a structural recovery in the military sector, with positive signals emerging from major companies regarding contract announcements and performance stabilization [2][38]. 2. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Traditional military sectors with expected order recovery, particularly in aerospace engines, shipbuilding, and aviation [2][44]. 2. New domains characterized by low-cost, intelligent, and systematic features, including precision-guided munitions and unmanned systems [2][44]. 3. Companies with asset integration expectations and competitive positions in military trade markets [2][44]. 3. Recommended Stocks - Traditional military direction: Recommended stocks include Aerospace Power, Aerospace Control, and Huayin Technology [3][45]. - New domain and new quality direction: Recommended stocks include High De Infrared, North Navigation, and Aerospace Rainbow [3][45]. - Reform and overseas direction: Recommended stocks include Guorui Technology and Construction Industry [3][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a leading global manufacturer in TV and IFPD (Interactive Flat Panel Display) OEM, facing revenue decline in IFPD due to industry demand drop, while smart TV and emerging product categories contribute to revenue growth. Short-term profit margins are pressured by rising panel costs and product structure adjustments, but innovation in display products and expansion of proprietary brands are expected to drive revenue growth, with a return to profit growth anticipated by 2025 [1][15] Revenue Analysis - IFPD industry is under pressure, but TV and innovative display products contribute to growth - Smart interactive displays sold 1.84 million units (YOY -7.0%) with an average price of 2031.78 RMB, generating revenue of 3.735 billion RMB (YOY -2.8%), accounting for 24% of total revenue [3] - Innovative displays sold 1.47 million units (YOY +110.6%) with an average price of 1030.68 RMB, generating revenue of 1.519 billion RMB (YOY +57.9%), accounting for 10% of total revenue [11] - Smart TVs sold 9.93 million units (YOY +25.4%) with an average price of 959.25 RMB, generating revenue of 9.528 billion RMB (YOY +23.5%), accounting for 61% of total revenue [12] Profitability Analysis - Profitability is under pressure due to cost increases and structural adjustments - The company's gross margin decreased to 12.77% in 2024 (YOY -4.78pct), with Q4 gross margin at 11.60% (YOY -6.63pct) [13] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 5.35% (YOY -4.19pct), with Q1 2025 showing a slight recovery to 6.83% (YOY +0.29pct) [15] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.017 billion RMB, 1.214 billion RMB, and 1.403 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.45, 1.73, and 2.00 RMB [15][17]

证券研究报告·A 股公司简评 其他电源设备Ⅱ 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评：高额现金 事件 公司2024年实现营收/归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 91.1/7.0/3.9 亿元，同比-13%/-5%/-24%； 其 中 2024Q4 实 现 营 收 / 归母净利润 / 扣 非 后 归 母 净 利 润 18.8/2.2/1.6 亿元，同比 -33%/-1%/+511% ，环比 +28%/+166%/+521%。 2025Q1 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 19.7/1.3/1. 2 亿 元，同比-32%/-31%/-35%，环比+4%/-42%/-26%。 简评 1、 设备端： 1）2024 年收入 17.42 亿元，同比+20.18%，系高端环保锅 炉市场开发+燃机余热炉收入增长较快，预计环保/余热锅炉 毛利率分别 6.8%，15.7%，同比下滑 5-7pct，主要系市场竞 争激烈，价格端承压。 2）在手订单：公司锅炉装备在手订单总量 30.44 亿元，同 比+43%，其中环保锅炉装备在手订单 11.1 亿元，传统节 能高效锅炉在手订单 15.29 亿元，另有设备更新改造及备件 等订单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the lithium sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3]. Core Insights - Lithium prices have entered a bottoming phase, with recent tariff reductions between China and the US potentially boosting demand for lithium carbonate and related products [1]. - Domestic lithium carbonate production is projected to reach approximately 75,500 tons in May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 20.7% [1]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 276,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 39.7% [1]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year growth in new energy vehicle sales, with a 48.3% increase in production and sales in April [1]. - The recent decline in lithium futures prices to 61,800 CNY/ton and spot prices to 64,500 CNY/ton indicates a challenging market environment, but the underlying demand from the automotive sector remains strong [1]. Summary by Sections Lithium Market - The average market price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 63,700 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.39%, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide has decreased by 1.5% to 66,000 CNY/ton [2][13]. - Supply remains stable with high operating rates among self-owned mining companies, although some recycling enterprises have reduced production due to cost pressures [2][14]. - Demand from downstream sectors is high, but growth rates are slowing, with many companies focusing on inventory consumption rather than new purchases [2][14]. Nickel Market - The LME nickel price has decreased by 1.0% to 15,648 CNY/ton, while SHFE nickel inventory has dropped by 1.1% to 22,300 tons [17][19]. - Domestic nickel sulfate production is expected to be 31,000 tons, reflecting a decrease in operating rates due to cost pressures [18]. Rare Earth & Magnetic Materials - Rare earth prices have shown an upward trend, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide averaging 436,000 CNY/ton, a 3.07% increase [21]. - Supply expectations are declining, with most upstream separation enterprises maintaining normal production levels [24]. - Demand is gradually releasing, with improved expectations for exports due to reduced tariffs, although concerns about export controls remain [24].

事件 公司 24 年实现营收/归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 34.1/1.9/1.8 亿元，同比+21%/+1%/-1%； 其中 24Q4 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 17.4/0.6/0.5 亿元，同比+32%/-28%/-38%，环比+209%/+68%/+47%。 证券研究报告·A 股公司简评 专用设备 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评：气体运营 并表贡献增量，绿氢核心设备验证持续推进 核心观点 2024 年公司实现总营业收入 34.10 亿元，同比增长 21.46% ；利润 总额达到 2.66 亿元，同比增长 37.7%；实现归母净利润 1.89 亿 元，同比增长 1.09%，营收及利润总额大幅增长主要系气体运营 业务于 24Q2 并表，传统煤化工设备、工程业务表现平稳，预计 核心设备毛利率维持稳定。公司围绕绿氢、绿醇产业链布局电解 槽、气化炉、提纯装置等核心设备及工艺，有望在煤化工向绿色 化工过渡，绿氢及氢基产品渗透率提升的趋势下成为公司利润的 第二增长曲线。 公司 25Q1 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 8.5/0.34/ 0. 33 亿元，同比+257%/+164 ...

证券研究报告•海外经济与大类资产简评 评级下调，是美债的卖点吗？ ——美债周观点（5） 发布日期：2025 年 05 月 18 日 分析师： 钱伟 SAC 编号： S1440521110002 核心观点： 继 2011 年标普、2023 年惠誉后，穆迪将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa 下调至 Aa1。评级下调对美债 影响路径包括： 市场走势回顾与展望： 2025 年 5 月 16 日，穆迪将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa 下调至 Aa1，评级展望从负面调整 为稳定。 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况 下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 1 （1）抵押资质、合约要求导致的技术性违约，可以忽略； （2）风控要求、资本占用导致的机构抛售，实际影响小； （3）市场情绪冲击，一般伴随着债务上限的发酵； （4）美债的长期信誉被蚕食，财政可持续性担忧。 证券研究报告•海外经济与大类资产简评 简评： 历史上看，短线扰动明显，股债在 1-2 个交易日内，均出现大幅调整；但时间拉长，美债 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 8.1 billion, 10.0 billion, and 12.1 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 28, 22, and 18 [14]. Core Views - The company is expected to ship over 430,000 tons of negative electrode materials in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19%, slightly below industry growth due to a slowdown in overseas demand [11]. - The company has established a solid-state electrolyte production line with an annual capacity exceeding 100 tons, serving clients in the power and 3C sectors, and has already achieved shipments [16]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 14.24 billion, with a net profit of 930 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 43% [2]. Summary by Sections Negative Electrode - The company is expected to achieve a gross profit of approximately 2,800 yuan per ton in the negative electrode segment for 2024, with projected profits of 2,900 yuan and 1,700 yuan per ton for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively [11]. - The decline in Q1 profitability is attributed to foreign exchange losses estimated at 60-70 million yuan, competitive pressure from overseas clients, and rising petroleum coke prices affecting performance [11]. Positive Electrode - The company has a production capacity of 63,000 tons per year for positive electrode materials, with a new high-nickel positive electrode project in Changzhou expected to be completed in 2024 [4]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 39.7 million and a net profit of 2.6 million for Q4 2024, showing a year-on-year decline of 17% and 10% respectively, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23% and 45% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 33.9 million, with a net profit of 1.8 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4% and 19% respectively [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with an integrated project in Indonesia for 80,000 tons of negative electrode materials gradually coming online, which is expected to enhance shipment volumes and global market share [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, while the Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.39 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [2][3][14]. - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by new housing and rental businesses, while the profit growth was limited due to a decrease in the proportion of higher-margin existing housing business, leading to a decline in overall gross margin by 4.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3][4][11]. - The company continues to expand its store and agent numbers, with over 57,000 stores and nearly 550,000 agents on the platform by the end of Q1, contributing to a significant increase in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 23.33 billion yuan, up 42.4% year-on-year, with existing housing, new housing, home decoration, and rental businesses generating revenues of 6.9 billion, 8.1 billion, 2.9 billion, and 5.1 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +20.0%, +64.2%, +22.3%, and +93.8% [3][14]. - The company's overall gross margin was 20.7%, down 4.5 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to a decrease in the contribution of existing housing business to total revenue [3][17]. Business Expansion - As of the end of Q1, the company had approximately 57,000 stores, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, and nearly 550,000 agents, up 24.3% year-on-year [4][11]. - The total GTV for Q1 was 843.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, with existing housing GTV at 580.3 billion yuan (up 28.1%) and new housing GTV at 232.2 billion yuan (up 53.0%) [4][11]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong cash reserve of 12.77 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% from the end of 2024, and repurchased shares worth 140 million USD in Q1, accounting for 0.6% of the total share capital at the end of 2024 [11].