Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the steel industry [3]. Core Insights - In April, industrial enterprises' sales revenue increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing sales revenue growing by 4.4%, driven by policies supporting "two new" initiatives [1][2]. - High-tech industries and core sectors of the digital economy saw sales revenue growth of 15.3% and 13.4% year-on-year, respectively [1][2]. - The weekly consumption of five major steel varieties reached 9.1376 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 8%, with construction materials and board consumption rising by 16.2% and 5.2% respectively [1][7]. - The profitability of 247 steel mills was reported at 59.31%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.44 percentage points [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In April, the sales revenue of industrial enterprises grew by 3.7%, with manufacturing specifically increasing by 4.4% [1][2]. - The construction sector saw significant investment, with water conservancy construction investment reaching 294.36 billion yuan from January to April [2]. Manufacturing - The machinery sector reported a 17.6% year-on-year increase in excavator sales, with domestic sales up by 16.4% and exports by 19.3% [2]. - The automotive industry experienced a production and sales increase of 12.9% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively, with new energy vehicles seeing a remarkable growth of 48.3% in production [2]. Steel Supply and Demand - The total inventory of five major steel varieties decreased to 14.3066 million tons, a week-on-week decline of 3.1% [7]. - The weekly production of rebar was reported at 2.2653 million tons, with apparent consumption at 2.6029 million tons [56]. Pricing Trends - As of May 16, 2025, rebar prices were reported at 3,210 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.26% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.81% [24][25]. - The prices of hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel also showed increases of 2.17% and 1.94% week-on-week, respectively [24]. Investment Recommendations - For general steel products, it is suggested to focus on high-dividend and leading companies in various downstream sectors, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel [8]. - The special steel and new materials sector is expected to grow rapidly due to strong policy support and increasing domestic demand [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the computer industry [5]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, Tencent's capital expenditure reached 27.476 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.35%, with 23 billion yuan allocated to AI-related business, accounting for over 80% of total capital expenditure. Alibaba's capital expenditure was 24.612 billion yuan, up 120.68% year-on-year, with a signed but unrecognized capital expenditure commitment amounting to 45.321 billion yuan, a 146.68% increase year-on-year. Despite a slowdown in chip procurement due to US-China trade tensions, major companies continue to invest heavily in AI [34][21][18]. - The launch of Huawei's Harmony PC on May 19 marks a significant breakthrough for domestic operating systems, supported by local software vendors, enhancing the Harmony ecosystem and providing localized AI experiences through the assistant "Xiao Yi" [24][29][32]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The computer (Shenwan) index fell by 1.26% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [12]. Investment Portfolio - Current recommendations include Longxin Group, Tax Friend Co., Bosi Software, Compass, Newland, Guoneng Rixin, Top Software, and Daotong Technology. The previous portfolio had a return of -1.01%, outperforming the Shenwan computer index's decline of -1.26% by 0.26% [3][36]. Industry News - Tencent's Q1 2025 report showed a revenue of 180.022 billion yuan, a 12.87% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 47.821 billion yuan, up 14.16% year-on-year. The financial technology and enterprise services segment generated 54.907 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year [18]. - Alibaba's Q1 2025 report indicated a revenue of 236.454 billion yuan, a 6.57% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA of 32.616 billion yuan, up 36.07% year-on-year [21]. Investment Recommendations - Continued investment in AI models and technologies is expected, with a focus on ERP and government sectors for initial orders and products. Recommended stocks include Bosi Software, Tax Friend Co., and Kingdee International. The demand for private models is increasing, benefiting integrated machines and B-end service outsourcing companies [35]. - The Harmony PC is anticipated to drive domestic demand, with investment opportunities in the Xinchuang and industrial software sectors. Recommended stocks include Haiguang Information, Dameng Data, and Kingsoft Office [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Insights - The Guinea Axis mine has been shut down due to the revocation of mining licenses by the government, leading to a strong rebound in alumina prices. If the mine does not resume production this year, a global increase of approximately 20 million tons is still expected, which is sufficient to meet the demand for electrolytic aluminum [1][3]. - The high concentration of ore in certain regions may lead to price volatility, making companies with high ore security more attractive to investors [5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Guinea Axis Mine Shutdown - The Guinea transitional government has revoked mining licenses for several companies, including 11 bauxite mining companies, with the Axis mine being the only one maintaining normal production. The shutdown is seen as a government move to reclaim mining rights and adjust profit-sharing terms, which has led to a direct market reversal [3][4]. Section 2: Global Supply and Demand Analysis - The Axis mine was expected to produce 23.2 million tons in 2024 and 38-40 million tons in 2025. If it remains closed, there will be a reduction of about 8 million tons in supply. However, other companies are expected to increase production, leading to a net increase of approximately 1.44 million tons of alumina [4]. - The overall alumina supply situation remains in surplus, with a projected excess of 530,000 tons after accounting for various production increases and decreases [4]. Section 3: Price Assessment - The report suggests that if the Axis mine does not return to production, the price of bauxite may stabilize around $75 per ton. If it resumes quickly, the price may test $70 per ton. This price range corresponds to the complete cost for high-cost domestic regions [5]. Section 4: Industrial Metals Overview - Industrial metals prices have shown mixed movements, with copper prices increasing by 0.02%, aluminum by 2.6%, lead by 0.9%, zinc by 1.4%, and tin by 2.9% [2][10]. The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to improve due to the recovery of the Chinese economy and the growth of the new energy sector [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the military industry, indicating a potential recovery in performance by 2025, with a focus on companies with order recovery expectations and performance support [2][10][44]. Core Insights - The military sector reported a total revenue of 764.903 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.16%. Key segments showing positive growth include shipbuilding, aerospace engines, and aviation [2][10]. - The net profit for the military sector decreased to 26.655 billion yuan in 2024, down 38.01% year-on-year, primarily due to lower downstream demand and price reductions for certain products [12][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show signs of recovery, particularly in ground equipment and aerospace segments, with a projected increase in associated transaction amounts [2][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The military sector's revenue growth was driven by shipbuilding (10.87% increase), aerospace engines (4.46% increase), and aviation (2.75% increase), while ground equipment and commercial aerospace saw significant declines [10][12]. - The report highlights a structural recovery in the military sector, with positive signals emerging from major companies regarding contract announcements and performance stabilization [2][38]. 2. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Traditional military sectors with expected order recovery, particularly in aerospace engines, shipbuilding, and aviation [2][44]. 2. New domains characterized by low-cost, intelligent, and systematic features, including precision-guided munitions and unmanned systems [2][44]. 3. Companies with asset integration expectations and competitive positions in military trade markets [2][44]. 3. Recommended Stocks - Traditional military direction: Recommended stocks include Aerospace Power, Aerospace Control, and Huayin Technology [3][45]. - New domain and new quality direction: Recommended stocks include High De Infrared, North Navigation, and Aerospace Rainbow [3][45]. - Reform and overseas direction: Recommended stocks include Guorui Technology and Construction Industry [3][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a leading global manufacturer in TV and IFPD (Interactive Flat Panel Display) OEM, facing revenue decline in IFPD due to industry demand drop, while smart TV and emerging product categories contribute to revenue growth. Short-term profit margins are pressured by rising panel costs and product structure adjustments, but innovation in display products and expansion of proprietary brands are expected to drive revenue growth, with a return to profit growth anticipated by 2025 [1][15] Revenue Analysis - IFPD industry is under pressure, but TV and innovative display products contribute to growth - Smart interactive displays sold 1.84 million units (YOY -7.0%) with an average price of 2031.78 RMB, generating revenue of 3.735 billion RMB (YOY -2.8%), accounting for 24% of total revenue [3] - Innovative displays sold 1.47 million units (YOY +110.6%) with an average price of 1030.68 RMB, generating revenue of 1.519 billion RMB (YOY +57.9%), accounting for 10% of total revenue [11] - Smart TVs sold 9.93 million units (YOY +25.4%) with an average price of 959.25 RMB, generating revenue of 9.528 billion RMB (YOY +23.5%), accounting for 61% of total revenue [12] Profitability Analysis - Profitability is under pressure due to cost increases and structural adjustments - The company's gross margin decreased to 12.77% in 2024 (YOY -4.78pct), with Q4 gross margin at 11.60% (YOY -6.63pct) [13] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 5.35% (YOY -4.19pct), with Q1 2025 showing a slight recovery to 6.83% (YOY +0.29pct) [15] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.017 billion RMB, 1.214 billion RMB, and 1.403 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.45, 1.73, and 2.00 RMB [15][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [11]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 9.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 704 million yuan, down 4.98% year-on-year. This decline is primarily due to the impact of fluctuations in photovoltaic component prices and uncertainties in project returns affecting the distributed photovoltaic power station business [1][2]. - The equipment manufacturing segment saw significant revenue growth of 20.21% in 2024, driven by the company's efforts to expand both domestic and international markets, capitalizing on opportunities in equipment upgrades and energy conservation. The current order backlog stands at 3.04 billion yuan, an increase of 43% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company initiated two rounds of cash dividends in 2024, totaling 430 million yuan, which accounts for 61.08% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [1][10]. Summary by Sections Equipment Segment - In 2024, revenue from the equipment segment reached 1.74 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.18%, attributed to rapid growth in the high-end environmental boiler market and revenue from gas turbine waste heat boilers. The gross margins for environmental and waste heat boilers are approximately 6.8% and 15.7%, respectively, showing a decline of 5-7 percentage points due to intense market competition [3]. - The total order backlog for boiler equipment is 3.04 billion yuan, with 1.11 billion yuan for environmental boilers and 1.53 billion yuan for traditional energy-efficient boilers, along with 405 million yuan for equipment upgrades and spare parts [3]. Environmental Operations - In 2024, the company launched a new project for kitchen waste disposal with a capacity of 725 tons per day, resulting in environmental operation services generating revenue of 638 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.50%, with a gross margin of approximately 30% [4]. Power Station Engineering - The revenue from power station engineering in 2024 was 675 million yuan, a significant decline of 70.08%, primarily due to fluctuations in photovoltaic component prices and uncertainties in renewable energy consumption affecting the distributed photovoltaic power station business [10]. - The current order backlog for traditional power station engineering is 1.1 billion yuan, which is expected to support a year-on-year revenue growth of 4% in 2025 [10]. Thermal Power Operations - In 2024, revenue from thermal power operations was 4.6 billion yuan, an increase of 15.6%, mainly due to the full-year consolidation of the Xiexin power station starting in 2024, with a gross margin of 21%, remaining stable year-on-year [10]. Hydrogen Energy - The company signed an order for a hydrogen production project in Shanghai and won a bid for a significant green hydrogen and ammonia integrated project, marking a successful entry into large-scale hydrogen production equipment orders [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the lithium sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3]. Core Insights - Lithium prices have entered a bottoming phase, with recent tariff reductions between China and the US potentially boosting demand for lithium carbonate and related products [1]. - Domestic lithium carbonate production is projected to reach approximately 75,500 tons in May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 20.7% [1]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 276,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 39.7% [1]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year growth in new energy vehicle sales, with a 48.3% increase in production and sales in April [1]. - The recent decline in lithium futures prices to 61,800 CNY/ton and spot prices to 64,500 CNY/ton indicates a challenging market environment, but the underlying demand from the automotive sector remains strong [1]. Summary by Sections Lithium Market - The average market price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 63,700 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.39%, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide has decreased by 1.5% to 66,000 CNY/ton [2][13]. - Supply remains stable with high operating rates among self-owned mining companies, although some recycling enterprises have reduced production due to cost pressures [2][14]. - Demand from downstream sectors is high, but growth rates are slowing, with many companies focusing on inventory consumption rather than new purchases [2][14]. Nickel Market - The LME nickel price has decreased by 1.0% to 15,648 CNY/ton, while SHFE nickel inventory has dropped by 1.1% to 22,300 tons [17][19]. - Domestic nickel sulfate production is expected to be 31,000 tons, reflecting a decrease in operating rates due to cost pressures [18]. Rare Earth & Magnetic Materials - Rare earth prices have shown an upward trend, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide averaging 436,000 CNY/ton, a 3.07% increase [21]. - Supply expectations are declining, with most upstream separation enterprises maintaining normal production levels [24]. - Demand is gradually releasing, with improved expectations for exports due to reduced tariffs, although concerns about export controls remain [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% [4]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.46%, and a total profit of 266 million yuan, up 37.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 189 million yuan, reflecting a modest growth of 1.09%. The significant growth in revenue and total profit is primarily attributed to the consolidation of the gas operation business in Q2 2024, while traditional coal chemical equipment and engineering businesses performed steadily. The gross margin for core equipment is expected to remain stable [1][2]. - The company is strategically positioning itself in the green hydrogen and green alcohol industry chain, focusing on core equipment such as electrolyzers, gasifiers, and purification devices. This transition from coal chemical to green chemical is anticipated to create a second growth curve for the company's profits as the penetration rate of green hydrogen and hydrogen-based products increases [1][3][12]. Summary by Sections Coal Chemical Main Business - In 2024, revenue from coal efficient utilization reached 1.82 billion yuan with a gross margin of 24.7%. The expected revenue from EPC/design/consulting is estimated at 500-600 million yuan with a gross margin of 5-8%. Revenue from gasifiers is projected to be between 1.3 billion and 1.4 billion yuan, maintaining a gross margin of approximately 30% [3]. - High-end equipment manufacturing generated 300 million yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 28.7%, primarily from valve manufacturing, which was separately reported from equipment sales in 2023 [3]. Industrial Gas Operations - In April 2024, the company increased its stake in the previously affiliated company, Aerospace Hydrogen Energy, to 34.35%, becoming its controlling shareholder and consolidating it into the company's financial statements. This acquisition has made the industrial gas operation business a significant part of the company's operations, with ongoing projects such as the Cangzhou gas phase II project exceeding 80% completion and the successful commissioning of the Xinxiang gas project [3][11]. Hydrogen Energy Industry Chain Core Equipment - The company has made significant progress in the hydrogen energy industry chain, completing tests on a 2000-type alkaline water electrolyzer prototype, achieving leading domestic performance. Development of PEM electrolyzers in various capacities is ongoing, and the electrolyzer manufacturing process has been certified under three systems. The company has also received energy efficiency certification from the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance [12]. - The first hydrogen deep purification system and trace impurity removal system have completed trial operations, which can be used for purifying hydrogen from chemical by-products. The company possesses biomass gasification technology and equipment reserves, which are expected to contribute to profit growth as the industry transitions from coal chemical to green chemical [12][13]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 5.42 billion yuan, 6.24 billion yuan, and 6.87 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 236 million yuan, 310 million yuan, and 345 million yuan. The projected P/E ratios for these years are 38, 29, and 26 times [14][13].

证券研究报告•海外经济与大类资产简评 评级下调，是美债的卖点吗？ ——美债周观点（5） 发布日期：2025 年 05 月 18 日 分析师： 钱伟 SAC 编号： S1440521110002 核心观点： 继 2011 年标普、2023 年惠誉后，穆迪将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa 下调至 Aa1。评级下调对美债 影响路径包括： 市场走势回顾与展望： 2025 年 5 月 16 日，穆迪将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa 下调至 Aa1，评级展望从负面调整 为稳定。 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况 下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 1 （1）抵押资质、合约要求导致的技术性违约，可以忽略； （2）风控要求、资本占用导致的机构抛售，实际影响小； （3）市场情绪冲击，一般伴随着债务上限的发酵； （4）美债的长期信誉被蚕食，财政可持续性担忧。 证券研究报告•海外经济与大类资产简评 简评： 历史上看，短线扰动明显，股债在 1-2 个交易日内，均出现大幅调整；但时间拉长，美债 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 8.1 billion, 10.0 billion, and 12.1 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 28, 22, and 18 [14]. Core Views - The company is expected to ship over 430,000 tons of negative electrode materials in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19%, slightly below industry growth due to a slowdown in overseas demand [11]. - The company has established a solid-state electrolyte production line with an annual capacity exceeding 100 tons, serving clients in the power and 3C sectors, and has already achieved shipments [16]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 14.24 billion, with a net profit of 930 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 43% [2]. Summary by Sections Negative Electrode - The company is expected to achieve a gross profit of approximately 2,800 yuan per ton in the negative electrode segment for 2024, with projected profits of 2,900 yuan and 1,700 yuan per ton for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively [11]. - The decline in Q1 profitability is attributed to foreign exchange losses estimated at 60-70 million yuan, competitive pressure from overseas clients, and rising petroleum coke prices affecting performance [11]. Positive Electrode - The company has a production capacity of 63,000 tons per year for positive electrode materials, with a new high-nickel positive electrode project in Changzhou expected to be completed in 2024 [4]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 39.7 million and a net profit of 2.6 million for Q4 2024, showing a year-on-year decline of 17% and 10% respectively, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23% and 45% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 33.9 million, with a net profit of 1.8 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4% and 19% respectively [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with an integrated project in Indonesia for 80,000 tons of negative electrode materials gradually coming online, which is expected to enhance shipment volumes and global market share [11].