shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： positioning continues to gradually climb but it remains low overall ( Exhibit 18 ). M Foundation | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 V i e w p o i n t | 27 Nov 2024 15:38:31 ET │ 30 pages Global Shipping shuinu9870 Global Supply Chain – Freight Tracker – Downside to Rates 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： CITI'S TAKE We update our weekly freight data tracker which covers both sea and air freight. We see capacity growth of +6% YoY in December and +9% YoY in Nove ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929) Overweight 1929.HK, 1929 HK 1H in line; quarter to date trend improving; maintain OW shuinu9870 Chow Tai Fook (CTF) reported 1HFY25 (ending Sep-24) results with sales/earnings down 20%/44% yoy, in line with preliminary announcements (sales/earnings down 18-22%/42-46%) on 22 October. This weak result ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property Market**, discussing recent trends, government policies, and future outlooks for property sales and completions [10][11][12]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Skepticism on New Home Sales Sustainability**: There is growing skepticism regarding the sustainability of new home sales, with a belief that effective policy delivery is crucial for recovery [9]. 2. **Vanke's Financial Struggles**: Vanke's request for a waiver on an offshore loan covenant indicates ongoing weaknesses in its credit metrics and liquidity. The company faces challenges in refinancing bank loans and insurance-related debts [9][13]. 3. **Sales Momentum Divergence**: After a strong October, sales momentum has diverged in November, particularly in Tier 3 and 4 cities, where sales have reverted to pre-stimulus levels. In contrast, Tier 1 and strong Tier 2 cities continue to show robust sales [11][24]. 4. **Government Support**: The recent government policies aimed at revitalizing the property sector were introduced due to its significant role in the national economy. The government is focused on stabilizing the sector to prevent broader economic impacts [25]. 5. **Urban Renovation vs. Inventory Purchase**: The central government is considering funding the repurchase of land from developers as a strategy to stabilize the property market. Urban renovation is viewed as a more manageable initiative compared to purchasing completed homes [12][20]. 6. **Forecast for Home Sales**: CRIC forecasts a **15% year-over-year decline** in home sales for 2024, with a smaller decline of **5%** expected in 2025 [35]. 7. **Challenges in Housing Completions**: Housing completions are projected to drop by **15-20% year-over-year** in 2024 and **10-15%** in 2025, primarily due to reduced new starts and delivery challenges [51]. 8. **Land Sales Outlook**: A **20% year-over-year decline** in land sales is anticipated for 2024, with no signs of recovery in 2025, indicating a continued downtrend in the market [52]. 9. **Role of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)**: Most land acquisitions are being carried out by SOEs, while privately owned enterprises (POEs) are expected to suspend land acquisitions through 2025 due to financial pressures [53]. Other Important Insights - The upcoming **Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)** in December is expected to hint at increased fiscal support from the government [22]. - The effectiveness of government measures, such as the **CNY 500 billion** allocated for purchasing completed homes, will depend on their execution scale and local government financial capacity [34][50]. - The potential for further supportive policies remains if the market continues to show weakness, particularly in lower-tier cities [25][36]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, highlighting the challenges and potential strategies for recovery.

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - The core contradiction in China's economy remains its internal demand, influenced by the balance of internal and external factors and the rhythm of the RMB exchange rate[2] - In 2024, the global macroeconomic landscape is characterized by five key themes: persistent inflation in the US, weak demand and policy expansion in China, pricing opportunities in upstream commodities driven by liquidity and geopolitical factors, global manufacturing supply chain restructuring, and the continued strength of the US dollar[3] - The US MAGA (Make America Great Again) policy framework has been effectively implemented for nearly a decade, regardless of the political party in power[5] Group 2: US Economic Policies - The MAGA policy aims to bring high-end manufacturing back to the US, strengthen technological leadership, and restructure the global supply chain for low-end manufacturing[9] - The Biden administration's MAGA framework has led to significant private sector investment and persistent core inflation, with technology stocks outperforming expectations[12] - The US economy is expected to face uncertainties in 2025, including downstream inflation, monetary policy direction, and fiscal policy pressures due to high government debt levels[15][18] Group 3: China's Economic Recovery - China's economic recovery is expected to follow three stages: liquidity easing, recovery of the real estate sector, and guiding capacity clearance to restore asset prices[22] - The current weak internal demand in China is not solely due to insufficient policy support but is also a result of a necessary transition in the real estate sector from financial products to consumer goods[11] - The probability of a strong stimulus similar to the 2008 four trillion yuan package is low, given the significant differences in the current economic fundamentals[12] Group 4: Global Commodity and Market Outlook - The global commodity market is influenced by geopolitical factors and liquidity expectations, with gold prices rising over 30% this year due to high inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions[84] - The restructuring of global manufacturing supply chains is evident, with China's machinery exports growing by 9.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall export growth rate of 4.6%[96] - The outlook for major asset classes in 2025 suggests that US stocks and bonds will be heavily influenced by monetary policy, while China's stock market may benefit from liquidity-driven trading opportunities[24]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Research J P M O R G A N | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 22 November 2024 | | Correction (See disclosures for details) | | This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland Chin ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Research J P M O R G A N | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 22 November 2024 | | Correction (See disclosures for details) | | This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland Chin ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 FICC Research Economics 22 November 2024 Completed: 22-Nov-24, 09:28 GMT Released: 22-Nov-24, 22:49 GMT Restricted - External China Outlook A shallow recovery in Q4 In view of improved data and announced policy support, we expect a mild recovery in Q4 growth momentum. We maintain our below-consensus 4% growth forecast for 2025 on structural headwinds, looming tariff hikes, and absence of DM-like demand-side stimulus. We note LG debt resolution has accelerated. Local-government d ...

J.P.Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research 18 November 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. The Metal Monitor China scraps the export tax rebate for aluminum and copper products; week recap & ahead | --- | --- | |-------------------------------- ...

November 18, 2024 01:00 AM GMT M Update | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...