28 October 2024 | 8:42AM HKT _ China Spirits Tracker: Sentiment holds up post peak season; Full Oct shipment led to Feitian Moutai's wholesale price volatility The 111th China Food & Drinks Fair is being hosted in Shenzhen on Oct 29-31, and we are seeing spirits consumption largely hold up or slightly sequentially improve post policy stimulus, evidenced by retail terminals/distributors not seeing significant weaker demand post the recent peak season, unlike the same period in 2023. Nevertheless, in line wit ...

量化 CTA 风格因子跟踪-本周动量因子 表现较好 摘要 传统上，多因子主要应用于股票市场。随着我国期货 市场规模和上市品种数量的充分增长，多因子截面 CTA 策略也日益受到交易者关注。 我们研究发现了动量、期限结构、贝塔、波动率、偏 度、持仓等因子的有效性，并通过指数化，形成期货 市场的 Smart Beta，对它们作持续的跟踪。 风险提示：本报告仅对商品期货市场风格作客观呈现， 不具备任何交易建议。历史业绩不代表未来业绩，回 测业绩不代表实盘业绩，期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 C H I N A F U T U R E S R E S E A R C H 简评报告 [table_invest] 作者姓名：彭鲸桥 邮箱：pengjingqiao@csc.com.cn 电话：023-86769675 期货从业信息：F3074348 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0012925 研究助理：盛亦青 邮箱：shengyiqing@csc.com.cn 电话：021-50600172 期货从业信息：F03107834 发布日期： 2024 年 9 月 15 日 | 一、 | 市场及板块一览 1 | | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告·债券动态 日本意外加息，全球收益率下行 ——全球债市观察双周报 2024811 期 核心观点 利率债方面，仍维持中枢波动下行的假设，上行是加仓机会。本期全球国 债利率中枢亦维持下行方向，10Y 美债利率从 4.2%一度降至 3.7%以下， 期末回到 3.9-4%区间。往后看，美国通胀、就业数据逐步回落的大趋势难 改，利率大方向仍是往下。信用债方面，衰退风险仍可控，高等级信用债 和 MBS 类资产的票息价值仍然值得关注，但投机级、高风险行业应该规 避。美国经济基本面风险可控，出现快速下行乃至衰退的概率不大，因而 美国高等级信用债违约风险不大。目前投机级美国信用债的利差已经处于 30%左右较低的历史分位数，利差保护略显不足。 内容要点 一、全球债市观察：全球收益率下行、美国降息预期加重 本期（7 月 29 日至 8 月 11 日），彭博全球综合指数收益率收 3.51%，彭 博全球综合信用指数收益率收 4.50%，较两周前分别-20.34、-17.73BP。 利率预期方面，美国年内降息预期次数增加，日本由于 7 月 31 日加息， 年内加息预期减弱。国别利差方面，各地区代表国家对美国利差倒挂均收 窄。 ...

CSC Research Daily Highlights August 13, 2024 Research Department China Securities Co., Ltd This compilation is an abndged translation of the corresponding Chinese reports Please refer to the important statement on the last page Daily Highlights * This complation is distributed by China Securities Co., Ltd. in the People's Republic of China (for the purposes of this Report only, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), and subject to applicable laws and regulations, this compliation may be distributed by Chi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry and a "Buy" rating for HUARUI PRECISION [12][24]. Core Insights - The domestic AI product traffic has surged, particularly in AI search products, while ChatGPT's monthly traffic has declined year-over-year. The market for AI products is still in an exploratory phase [11][13]. - The new procurement rules from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) are expected to boost technological localization and innovation within central state-owned enterprises [11][13]. - In the real estate sector, Shenzhen Public Housing Group's initiative to purchase unsold homes for affordable housing is seen as a model that may influence other major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [18][20]. - The machine tool industry, represented by HUARUI PRECISION, has shown significant earnings recovery, with a projected net profit growth of 23.99% to 33.32% from 2024 to 2026 [33]. Computer Industry Summary - In July, domestic AI product traffic surged, with significant growth in AI search products, while the overall market remains exploratory [11][13]. - The SASAC's new procurement rules are expected to promote technological innovation and localization among central SOEs [11][13]. - Recommended stocks in the AI sector include DAMENG, NINESTAR, and KINGSOFT OFFICE, focusing on technology security and policy-driven sectors [13][15]. Real Estate Industry Summary - Shenzhen's city-wide purchase of unsold market-rate housing is a significant development, with potential replication in other major cities [18][20]. - The recent land auction in Shanghai set a new record for land prices, indicating strong demand from high-quality real estate companies [18][20]. - The CITIC Real Estate Index rose 2.65%, outperforming the broader market, suggesting a stabilization in the real estate sector [20]. Machine Tool Industry Summary - HUARUI PRECISION reported a revenue increase of 14.93% year-over-year, with significant improvements in profitability due to better margins and reduced costs [26][29]. - The company is expanding its mid-to-high-end product offerings and overseas distribution channels, which are expected to drive future growth [30][33]. - The projected net profit for HUARUI PRECISION is expected to reach RMB196 million, RMB250 million, and RMB334 million from 2024 to 2026, indicating strong growth potential [33].

证券研究报告·策略周报 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|----------------------------------------------|--------------------------| | | 日央行加息,套息交易逆转 流动性周观察8月第1期 | | | 分析师:陈果 | 分析师:夏凡捷 | 分析师:姚皓天 | | chenguodcq@csc. com. cn | xiafanjie@csc.com.cn | yaohaotian@csc.com.cn | | SAC 编号: S1440521120006 | SAC 编号: S1440521120005 | SAC 编号: S1440523020001 | | SFC编号: BUE195 | | | 发布日期:2024年8月6日 本报告由中信建设证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信健技（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。 同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 核心观点 ● | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the autoimmune drug market, suggesting that the rapid growth in market size will drive the development of innovative drugs in China [2][3][4]. Core Insights - The patient population for autoimmune diseases and type II inflammation is rapidly increasing, with the market size expected to reach $24.7 billion by 2030, primarily driven by psoriasis and ankylosing spondylitis [2][3]. - The report highlights the significant potential for improvement in the efficacy and safety of existing drugs, with numerous new drugs emerging with novel targets and mechanisms of action [2][3]. - Key companies in the domestic autoimmune sector include Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and others, with a focus on psoriasis and atopic dermatitis [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The autoimmune drug market is experiencing accelerated growth, second only to oncology drugs, with substantial room for advancement in treatment efficacy and safety [2][3]. - The prevalence of psoriasis is the highest among autoimmune diseases, with a rate of 2.7%, while ankylosing spondylitis and rheumatoid arthritis have similar prevalence rates [2][3]. Company Pipeline and Development - Companies such as Heng Rui Medicine and Innovent Biologics have robust pipelines, with several drugs in late-stage clinical trials or submitted for market approval [2][3][4]. - The report details the progress of various drug candidates targeting IL-4R, JAK, and IL-23, with some already approved or in advanced clinical stages [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by a rich pipeline of innovative drugs targeting various autoimmune conditions, with a focus on differentiation through novel mechanisms [2][3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships and licensing agreements in enhancing the development and commercialization of new therapies [2][3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for companies with strong clinical pipelines and operational efficiencies, specifically highlighting Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and others as key players to watch [2][3][4].

看点① ：主动权益基金股票仓位下降 1.7pct 至 82.7%。 1）主动增配较多的行业：电子、通信、家用电器、国防军工； 看点④ ：红利板块配置拥挤度有所下降。 2024 年 2 季度，主动权益基金主要增配港股传媒、通信、电子、 消费者服务、纺织服装等行业，主要减配医药、煤炭、汽车、食 品饮料等行业。 chenguodcq@csc.com.cn SAC 编号：S1440521120006 上证指数、创业板指走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 202 3/6/29202 3/7/29202 3/8/29202 3/9/ 29 202 3/10 /29202 3/11 /29202 3/12 /29202 4/1/ 29202 4/2/ 29202 4/3/31202 4/4/30202 4/5/31 上证指数 沪深300 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a detailed analysis of the recovery trends in various sectors of the global consumer goods industry, focusing on cosmetics, luxury goods, duty-free, travel, and entertainment sectors [1][2] Core Views - The global consumer goods industry is experiencing a mixed recovery, with some sectors like cosmetics and luxury goods showing signs of improvement, while others like duty-free and travel are still struggling to regain pre-pandemic levels [3][30][49] - The recovery is uneven across regions, with Asia-Pacific showing slower recovery compared to Europe and the Americas [14][20][36] - The report highlights the importance of multi-brand strategies and regional diversification for companies to navigate the post-pandemic landscape [16][28] Cosmetics Sector - In Q1 2023, international cosmetics brands in Japan and South Korea showed relatively weaker performance, with brands like Shiseido and Amore Pacific experiencing significant declines in revenue [3] - L'Oréal reported strong growth in its dermatological beauty segment, with a 30 6% increase in Q1 2023, while its luxury cosmetics segment saw slower growth [4] - The Chinese market continues to impact global cosmetics brands, with Shiseido reporting a 3% decline in revenue in China for Q1 2023 [7] - South Korean skincare brands are facing challenges, with Amore Pacific reporting a 17% decline in overseas revenue in Q1 2023, primarily due to weak demand in Asia [9] Luxury Goods Sector - Luxury brands like Hermès, LVMH, and Kering showed improved performance in Q1 2023, with Hermès reporting a 26 1% growth in Japan [30][36] - The Americas market for luxury goods is slowing down, with brands like Kering reporting a decline in North American sales [32] - The Asia-Pacific region, particularly Japan, is driving growth for luxury brands, with LVMH reporting a 34% increase in sales in Japan for Q1 2023 [36] Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free sector is recovering unevenly, with European and American markets showing faster recovery compared to Asia [49] - South Korea's duty-free market is struggling, with sales in Q1 2023 down by 51 3% compared to the same period in 2019 [51] - China Duty Free has emerged as the largest duty-free operator globally, with its revenue surpassing pre-pandemic levels [56] Travel and Entertainment Sector - The travel sector is recovering, with OTA platforms like Expedia and Booking reporting strong growth in bookings, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [63][65] - The entertainment sector, particularly live events, is seeing a strong rebound, with Live Nation Entertainment reporting record revenues in Q1 2023 [77] - The cruise industry is still recovering, with major operators like Carnival and Royal Caribbean reporting significant losses despite an increase in passenger days [81][82] Regional Recovery Trends - The Americas and Europe are leading the recovery in the cosmetics and luxury goods sectors, while Asia-Pacific is lagging behind [14][20][36] - The duty-free sector in Europe and the Americas is recovering faster than in Asia, with operators like Dufry and Lagardère reporting improved performance [49][53] - The travel sector is seeing a strong recovery in the Asia-Pacific region, with OTA platforms reporting significant growth in bookings [63][65]

证券研究报告行业深度报告 可选消费品全球恢复系列五 分析师：刘乐文 分析师：于佳琪 分析师：陈如练 liulewen@csc.com.cn yujiaqibj@csc.com.cn chenrulian@csc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S1440521080003 SAC 执证编号：S1440521110003 SAC 执证编号：S1440520070008 SFC 中央编号：BPC301 SFC 中央编号：BRV097 研究助理：孙英杰 sunyingjie@csc.com.cn 发布日期：2023年12月24日 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。 同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 核心观点  通胀经不是美国消费股所考虑的主要因素，美国本土消费降级品牌今年表现不佳主要为中国的商业 模式和供应链进入。 ...