证券研究报告行业深度报告 可选消费品全球恢复系列五 分析师：刘乐文 分析师：于佳琪 分析师：陈如练 liulewen@csc.com.cn yujiaqibj@csc.com.cn chenrulian@csc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S1440521080003 SAC 执证编号：S1440521110003 SAC 执证编号：S1440520070008 SFC 中央编号：BPC301 SFC 中央编号：BRV097 研究助理：孙英杰 sunyingjie@csc.com.cn 发布日期：2023年12月24日 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。 同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 核心观点  通胀经不是美国消费股所考虑的主要因素，美国本土消费降级品牌今年表现不佳主要为中国的商业 模式和供应链进入。 ...

Group 1: Economic Context - China's productivity in steel, cement, and solar products exceeds 50% of global output, supporting the stability of the RMB[7] - The internationalization of the RMB is driven by the need for a diversified currency system due to the volatile US monetary policy and geopolitical instability[6] - The global cross-border payment model is dominated by "correspondent banks + SWIFT," which is increasingly inefficient, leading to a rise in cross-border payment costs[10] Group 2: mBridge and CBDC - The mBridge project, leveraging blockchain technology, can reduce cross-border transaction times from 3-5 days to 2-10 seconds, enhancing efficiency and security[3] - A comprehensive mCBDC network could save global enterprises $100 billion annually in cross-border payment costs[10] - During the pilot phase from August 15 to September 23, 2022, the central banks issued $12.1 million in CBDC, facilitating 164 cross-border payments totaling $22.1 million[15] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - In 2022, China's trade surplus was approximately $170.02 billion, with the US accounting for 24% of this surplus[69] - Excluding the US, China's trade balance becomes more balanced, indicating a potential for RMB internationalization[123] - The number of active correspondent banks has decreased by 20% from 2011 to 2018, exacerbating the challenges in cross-border payments[10]