Summary of Screen Holdings Co Ltd 2Q FY25/3 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Screen Holdings Co Ltd - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Rating**: Market-Perform - **Price Target**: ¥9,700.00 - **Current Price**: ¥10,030 - **Market Cap**: ¥1,018.95 billion Key Financial Results - **2Q FY25/3 Revenue**: ¥143.2 billion, up 23% year-over-year, but below consensus by 2% [1][8] - **Gross Margin**: 38%, better than consensus [1][8] - **Operating Margin**: 21.3%, also better than consensus [1][8] - **Net Income**: ¥20.6 billion, in line with consensus [1][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: ¥211.72, up 21.8% year-over-year [14] Segment Performance - **SPE Revenue**: Missed by 3% due to push-out of low-margin sample products [1][8] - **GA Revenue**: Slightly above consensus [8] - **FT Revenue**: In line with consensus [8] - **PE Revenue**: Below consensus [8] Guidance and Outlook - **2H FY25/3 Revenue Guidance**: Raised by 5.5%, 1.3% above consensus [2][11] - **Operating Profit Guidance**: Missed by 1.7% due to low-margin product push-outs [2] - **China Sales Contribution**: Expected to contribute 38% of revenue in 2H, up from 34% previously [3][8] - **Long-term China Contribution**: Expected to remain above 30% in FY26/3, normalizing to 25-30% thereafter [3][8] Market and Competitive Landscape - **WFE Growth Outlook**: Expected single-digit growth for next year, with DRAM capex growing 15%, NAND +15%, Foundry +5%, and logic -15% [5][8] - **Screen's Growth Expectation**: Anticipates double-digit growth, outpacing the industry [5][8] - **Margin Outlook**: Aims to maintain SPE operating profit margin at around 24% despite lower China contribution [4][8] Risks and Considerations - **Competition and China Risk**: Long-term growth outlook is balanced by competition and risks associated with China [5][8] - **Investment Implications**: Market-Perform rating maintained with a target price of ¥9,700 [5][23] Additional Insights - **Capacity**: Current capacity of S3-5 has ramped up to full capacity of ¥500 billion, with further optimization expected [8] - **R&D Investment**: Management plans to increase R&D investment if margins exceed expectations [4][8] This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings call, providing a comprehensive overview of Screen Holdings Co Ltd's performance, outlook, and market positioning.

Flash | 28 Oct 2024 00:36:46 ET │ 12 pages China Steel Supply Side Reform 3.0? CITI'S TAKE Per Cailian(25-Oct), China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) is discussing a basket proposal in terms of supply discipline in the steel space, including phasing-out inefficient capacity and encouraging M&A to consolidate the market and improve economies of scale. Although the market has rallied since, we don't see upside risk to fundamental improvement, as (1) it is not new news for the gov to promote consolidation in ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Power Sector - **Power Demand**: PRC power demand rose by 8.5% year-over-year (YoY) to 847.5 million MWh in September 2024, an increase from 7.9% YoY in the first eight months of 2024 [1][2] - **Sector Contributions**: - Industrial sector: 63% (+3.6% YoY) - Service sector: 20% (+12.7% YoY) - Residential sector: 16% (+27.8% YoY) - Farming and fishing: 1% (+6.4% YoY) [2] Power Generation Capacity - **New Capacity Additions**: In September, China added 32.6 GW of generation capacity, with: - Solar: 20.9 GW (+32.4% YoY) - Wind: 5.5 GW (+20.8% YoY) - Thermal: 4.8 GW (-6.0% YoY) - Hydro: 1.4 GW (+1.1x YoY) - Nuclear: 0 GW [3][9] - **Total New Capacity in 9M24**: 242.6 GW (+11.6% YoY) [3] Capital Expenditure (Capex) - **Power Grid Capex**: Increased by 21.1% YoY to Rmb 398.2 billion in 9M24, with September's capex at Rmb 65.2 billion (+11.8% YoY) [4][10] - **Power Plant Capex**: Increased by 19.3% YoY to Rmb 98.3 billion in September [4][10] Utilization Rates - **Average Utilization**: Average utilization of power plants fell by 1.0% YoY to 291 hours in September, with notable changes: - Nuclear: 612 hours (+0.7% YoY) - Thermal: 376 hours (+9.3% YoY) - Hydro: 312 hours (-18.5% YoY) - Wind: 159 hours (+26.2% YoY) - Solar: 97 hours (-11.8% YoY) [5][11] Company Insights - **Pinggao Electric Co**: Target price set at Rmb 26.00/share based on DCF model, with key risks including lower-than-expected approval processes for UHV transmission line projects [23][24] - **Sieyuan Electric**: Target price set at Rmb 88.00/share, with risks including lower-than-expected PRC grid capex [25][27] - **Goldwind Science & Technology**: Target price set at HK$ 5.35/share, with risks including fewer-than-expected new orders and less favorable government policies [21][22][30] Future Outlook - **Forecast for Solar Installations**: Expected to increase by 18% YoY to 255 GW in 2024E [3] - **Long-term Growth**: The power demand growth in PRC has been consistently higher than GDP growth, driven by sectors such as AI, data centers, and electric vehicles [1] Additional Notes - **Government Policies**: The shift towards renewable energy sources is part of China's strategy to reduce emissions, impacting the electricity generation mix [1] - **Investment Opportunities**: Favorable conditions for grid equipment makers like Pinggao and Sieyuan, as well as wind equipment manufacturers like Goldwind, due to increased capex and demand [1][21][25]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the **China Technology & Communication** sector, with a specific emphasis on **smartphones**, **semiconductors**, **AI**, and **software** industries [1][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investor Sentiment**: There is increasing interest among institutional investors in **China tech** compared to other Asian markets, particularly in **ITS** and **software** sectors, ahead of the Politburo meeting [1]. - **Smartphone Demand**: Expectations for the **iPhone 16** are low due to order cuts, while the **iPhone 17** cycle and specifications upgrades are seen as crucial for supporting the iPhone supply chain [2]. - **AI and Optical Transceivers**: There is heightened interest in **optical transceivers** players like **Innolight**, driven by demand from US players and potential catalysts from US CSP capex [6]. - **Software Sector**: Post China's stimulus plan, there is growing interest in the software sector, although fundamentals are expected to remain weak in the second half of 2024 [7]. **Kingdee** is highlighted as a key pick due to its solid fundamentals and improving profitability [8]. Company-Specific Insights - **Xiaomi**: Identified as a structural long-term investment opportunity due to promising growth in the **EV** market and a recovering smartphone landscape [1][8]. - **ASMPT**: Despite concerns over order cuts, it is viewed as a buying opportunity post its 3Q24 results, with potential benefits from **CoW** and **HBM** opportunities [3][8]. - **Apple Supply Chain**: The Apple supply chain remains a focus, with companies like **AAC**, **Cowell**, and **Goertek** expected to benefit from the iPhone 17 upgrade [8]. - **Kingdee**: Remains a key pick in the **SaaS** sector due to its solid fundamentals and potential macro recovery [8]. Additional Important Points - **Semiconductor Concerns**: The decline in **ASML** orders indicates a potential oversupply in the semiconductor market, with risks of US bans on certain Chinese memory and advanced equipment makers [3]. - **AI Sentiment Recovery**: The recovery in AI sentiment is expected to support a re-rating of the supply chain, particularly benefiting companies involved in AI smartphones [2][8]. - **Market Dynamics**: Investors are concerned about the weakening demand for Android devices in the second half of 2024, following a restocking phase in the first half [2]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the **China Technology & Communication** sector, with specific focus on the smartphone and semiconductor industries. Key companies like **Xiaomi**, **ASMPT**, and **Kingdee** are positioned as potential investment opportunities amidst a backdrop of evolving market dynamics and investor sentiment.

27 October 2024 | 6:38PM HKT | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

28 October 2024 | 8:42AM HKT _ China Spirits Tracker: Sentiment holds up post peak season; Full Oct shipment led to Feitian Moutai's wholesale price volatility The 111th China Food & Drinks Fair is being hosted in Shenzhen on Oct 29-31, and we are seeing spirits consumption largely hold up or slightly sequentially improve post policy stimulus, evidenced by retail terminals/distributors not seeing significant weaker demand post the recent peak season, unlike the same period in 2023. Nevertheless, in line wit ...

量化 CTA 风格因子跟踪-本周动量因子 表现较好 摘要 传统上，多因子主要应用于股票市场。随着我国期货 市场规模和上市品种数量的充分增长，多因子截面 CTA 策略也日益受到交易者关注。 我们研究发现了动量、期限结构、贝塔、波动率、偏 度、持仓等因子的有效性，并通过指数化，形成期货 市场的 Smart Beta，对它们作持续的跟踪。 风险提示：本报告仅对商品期货市场风格作客观呈现， 不具备任何交易建议。历史业绩不代表未来业绩，回 测业绩不代表实盘业绩，期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 C H I N A F U T U R E S R E S E A R C H 简评报告 [table_invest] 作者姓名：彭鲸桥 邮箱：pengjingqiao@csc.com.cn 电话：023-86769675 期货从业信息：F3074348 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0012925 研究助理：盛亦青 邮箱：shengyiqing@csc.com.cn 电话：021-50600172 期货从业信息：F03107834 发布日期： 2024 年 9 月 15 日 | 一、 | 市场及板块一览 1 | | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告·债券动态 日本意外加息，全球收益率下行 ——全球债市观察双周报 2024811 期 核心观点 利率债方面，仍维持中枢波动下行的假设，上行是加仓机会。本期全球国 债利率中枢亦维持下行方向，10Y 美债利率从 4.2%一度降至 3.7%以下， 期末回到 3.9-4%区间。往后看，美国通胀、就业数据逐步回落的大趋势难 改，利率大方向仍是往下。信用债方面，衰退风险仍可控，高等级信用债 和 MBS 类资产的票息价值仍然值得关注，但投机级、高风险行业应该规 避。美国经济基本面风险可控，出现快速下行乃至衰退的概率不大，因而 美国高等级信用债违约风险不大。目前投机级美国信用债的利差已经处于 30%左右较低的历史分位数，利差保护略显不足。 内容要点 一、全球债市观察：全球收益率下行、美国降息预期加重 本期（7 月 29 日至 8 月 11 日），彭博全球综合指数收益率收 3.51%，彭 博全球综合信用指数收益率收 4.50%，较两周前分别-20.34、-17.73BP。 利率预期方面，美国年内降息预期次数增加，日本由于 7 月 31 日加息， 年内加息预期减弱。国别利差方面，各地区代表国家对美国利差倒挂均收 窄。 ...

CSC Research Daily Highlights August 13, 2024 Research Department China Securities Co., Ltd This compilation is an abndged translation of the corresponding Chinese reports Please refer to the important statement on the last page Daily Highlights * This complation is distributed by China Securities Co., Ltd. in the People's Republic of China (for the purposes of this Report only, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), and subject to applicable laws and regulations, this compliation may be distributed by Chi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry and a "Buy" rating for HUARUI PRECISION [12][24]. Core Insights - The domestic AI product traffic has surged, particularly in AI search products, while ChatGPT's monthly traffic has declined year-over-year. The market for AI products is still in an exploratory phase [11][13]. - The new procurement rules from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) are expected to boost technological localization and innovation within central state-owned enterprises [11][13]. - In the real estate sector, Shenzhen Public Housing Group's initiative to purchase unsold homes for affordable housing is seen as a model that may influence other major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [18][20]. - The machine tool industry, represented by HUARUI PRECISION, has shown significant earnings recovery, with a projected net profit growth of 23.99% to 33.32% from 2024 to 2026 [33]. Computer Industry Summary - In July, domestic AI product traffic surged, with significant growth in AI search products, while the overall market remains exploratory [11][13]. - The SASAC's new procurement rules are expected to promote technological innovation and localization among central SOEs [11][13]. - Recommended stocks in the AI sector include DAMENG, NINESTAR, and KINGSOFT OFFICE, focusing on technology security and policy-driven sectors [13][15]. Real Estate Industry Summary - Shenzhen's city-wide purchase of unsold market-rate housing is a significant development, with potential replication in other major cities [18][20]. - The recent land auction in Shanghai set a new record for land prices, indicating strong demand from high-quality real estate companies [18][20]. - The CITIC Real Estate Index rose 2.65%, outperforming the broader market, suggesting a stabilization in the real estate sector [20]. Machine Tool Industry Summary - HUARUI PRECISION reported a revenue increase of 14.93% year-over-year, with significant improvements in profitability due to better margins and reduced costs [26][29]. - The company is expanding its mid-to-high-end product offerings and overseas distribution channels, which are expected to drive future growth [30][33]. - The projected net profit for HUARUI PRECISION is expected to reach RMB196 million, RMB250 million, and RMB334 million from 2024 to 2026, indicating strong growth potential [33].