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世界货币体系多元化,人民币走向更大舞台
China Securities· 2024-06-21 03:43
Group 1: Economic Context - China's productivity in steel, cement, and solar products exceeds 50% of global output, supporting the stability of the RMB[7] - The internationalization of the RMB is driven by the need for a diversified currency system due to the volatile US monetary policy and geopolitical instability[6] - The global cross-border payment model is dominated by "correspondent banks + SWIFT," which is increasingly inefficient, leading to a rise in cross-border payment costs[10] Group 2: mBridge and CBDC - The mBridge project, leveraging blockchain technology, can reduce cross-border transaction times from 3-5 days to 2-10 seconds, enhancing efficiency and security[3] - A comprehensive mCBDC network could save global enterprises $100 billion annually in cross-border payment costs[10] - During the pilot phase from August 15 to September 23, 2022, the central banks issued $12.1 million in CBDC, facilitating 164 cross-border payments totaling $22.1 million[15] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - In 2022, China's trade surplus was approximately $170.02 billion, with the US accounting for 24% of this surplus[69] - Excluding the US, China's trade balance becomes more balanced, indicating a potential for RMB internationalization[123] - The number of active correspondent banks has decreased by 20% from 2011 to 2018, exacerbating the challenges in cross-border payments[10]