Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expected overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Recent significant policy changes in the renewable energy sector are expected to drive demand positively, with the Chinese government easing export tax rates on photovoltaic and battery products from 13% to 9% [1]. - The report highlights that the current price levels in the renewable energy industry are at a cyclical bottom, which is anticipated to stimulate demand recovery and market consolidation [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and the transition to market-oriented policies in the renewable energy sector, particularly in electric vehicles and solar energy [1]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The report discusses the anticipated changes in U.S. government policies, including the potential removal of tax credits for electric vehicle purchases, which could impact market dynamics [1]. - It also notes the adjustment of export tax rates in China, which is expected to alleviate trade protectionism and enhance competitiveness in international markets [1]. Industry Outlook - The analysis suggests that the demand outlook for the renewable energy sector is favorable, driven by the government's proactive measures and the upward price trend expected in the future [1]. - The report identifies that the renewable energy supply chain is currently at a cyclical low, and the reduction in export tax rates will likely lead to a market recovery and improved profitability for key players [1]. Key Companies and Growth Potential - The report lists core growth companies in the renewable energy sector, including Tesla, CATL, and LONGi Green Energy, which are expected to benefit from new technologies and market expansions [5]. - It also highlights companies that are positioned for gradual recovery from the bottom, such as Tongwei Co. and Tianqi Lithium, indicating a positive shift in their performance outlook [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the expectation of interest rate cuts has weakened, leading to a stronger US dollar and subsequent adjustments in metal prices [1][4] - The report notes that the basic metal prices are under pressure due to the strengthening dollar and rising expectations of tariffs following Trump's election victory [1][4] - Long-term price trends for basic metals are viewed positively, with expectations of demand recovery supporting prices [1][4] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals Market Review - The SW non-ferrous metals industry index decreased by 5.71% this week, closing at 4615 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.52% [1][110] - Year-to-date, the SW non-ferrous metals industry index has increased by 10.28% [1][110] Basic Metals - LME copper price decreased by 4.90% to $8,971 per ton, while domestic copper price fell by 4.10% to ¥74,153 per ton [1][123] - The average price of copper concentrate (TC) was $10.33 per ton, showing a slight decrease from the previous week [1][127] - The report indicates a potential recovery in demand, with copper cable enterprises' operating rate increasing by 2.07 percentage points to 89.37% [1][127] Precious Metals - Comex gold price decreased by 4.10% to $2,826 per ounce, and domestic gold price fell by 2.81% to ¥598 per gram [1][171] - The report maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices due to weakening dollar credit and geopolitical tensions [1][171] Energy Metals - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 4.38% to ¥78,700 per ton, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 0.49% to ¥67,387 per ton [1][175] - The report notes strong pricing intentions from companies as they face pressure from high-cost production [1][176]

金融行业|行业深度研究报告 证券研究报告 2024年11月15日 数字人民币应用进展、产业链分析与投资策略 夏芈卬 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： S1190523030003 王子钦 研究助理： 一般证券业务登记编号： S1190124010010 报告摘要 P2 ➢ 数字人民币作为中国的法定数字货币，依托先进技术来确保安全与稳定。数字人民币由中国人民银行发行，具备与纸 币相同的法律地位。其底层技术包括区块链、分布式账本、双离线支付以及强大的加密算法。这些技术不仅增强了交 易的透明性与安全性，还确保了用户隐私的保护。特别是双离线支付功能，使得用户能够在无网络环境下完成交易， 进一步提升数字人民币的实用性和灵活性。 ➢ 数字人民币的推广稳步推进，已覆盖多种生活和跨境应用场景。自2014年以来，数字人民币经历了多个研发与试点阶 段。2020年，数字人民币开始在深圳、苏州等地进行试点，涵盖了小额支付、零售等基础场景。至2023年，其应用场 景已大幅扩展，包括交通、医疗、政府支付和跨境结算等。尤其是在北京冬奥会中，数字人民币作为官方支付手段之 一，提升了其国际化的应用前景。试点地区的交易量和用户数量均持续增长，显示 ...

Group 1: Digital Renminbi Overview - Digital Renminbi is China's legal digital currency, issued by the People's Bank of China, with the same legal status as cash[3] - The underlying technology includes blockchain, distributed ledger, dual offline payment, and strong encryption algorithms, enhancing transaction transparency and security[3] - As of June 2024, the cumulative transaction amount of Digital Renminbi has exceeded 7 trillion yuan[73] Group 2: Development and Application - Digital Renminbi has expanded its application scenarios significantly since its pilot launch in 2020, covering transportation, healthcare, and cross-border payments[3] - The pilot program has grown to include 26 regions across 17 provinces as of June 2024[67] - The introduction of offline payment functionality allows transactions without network connectivity, enhancing usability in various environments[73] Group 3: Industry Chain Analysis - The Digital Renminbi industry chain consists of upstream (development), midstream (distribution), and downstream (application) sectors[91] - Upstream includes the People's Bank of China and technology providers like Geer Software and Newland, focusing on security and infrastructure[95] - Midstream involves commercial banks and payment platforms that facilitate the circulation of Digital Renminbi[91] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities exist in upstream companies involved in digital encryption and network security, such as Geer Software[4] - Midstream IT service providers for banks, like Changliang Technology, are expected to benefit from system upgrades related to Digital Renminbi[4] - Downstream hardware and software wallet providers, particularly in POS and ATM upgrades, present significant market potential[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electric equipment and new energy sector, indicating a "Buy" strategy due to overseas policy disruptions creating layout opportunities and emphasizing new technologies and strong cycles [1]. Core Insights - The overall strategy for the industry suggests that short-term low expectations due to overseas policy changes present a counter-cyclical buying opportunity, particularly with recent adjustments in U.S. policies and domestic export tax changes [1][3]. - Key companies highlighted include CATL, Foster, and Putailai as core targets, while flexible targets include Haimeixing, Dier Laser, and Shangneng Electric [1]. - The report emphasizes the beginning of a new cycle in the mid-to-lower reaches of the new energy vehicle supply chain [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The report indicates that loss-making segments are expected to recover, with a focus on price increases in certain areas such as copper foil, positive electrode materials, and electrolytes [4][15]. - Key beneficiaries identified include leading companies like Tesla, CATL, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, as well as innovative firms like Huawei and Xiaomi [5][16]. Photovoltaics - The report notes a reduction in export tax rates for certain photovoltaic products, which may benefit overseas production capacity. The export tax rate has been adjusted from 13% to 9%, increasing costs for domestic producers but potentially enhancing profitability for overseas capacity [5][16]. - Integrated companies such as Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar are highlighted as key players, along with supporting firms like Foster and Sungrow Power [5][16]. Wind Power - Wind turbine bidding has seen significant growth, reaching a historical high with a total of 112.06 GW bid in the first ten months of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 110.71% [6][17]. - The average price for onshore wind turbines has stabilized between 1300-1400 RMB/KW, indicating a recovery in profit margins for turbine manufacturers [6][17]. - Investment recommendations include companies involved in offshore wind projects and turbine manufacturing, such as Goldwind Technology and Sany Heavy Energy [6][19].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the real estate development and operation sector, as well as for real estate services [2][3]. Core Insights - The implementation of real estate tax policies is expected to stabilize the real estate market, as announced by the Ministry of Finance and other departments on November 13, 2024 [5][15]. - The new tax policies include significant reductions in deed tax rates for home purchases, particularly benefiting buyers in first-tier cities [6][11]. - The expansion of the VAT exemption range aims to lower transaction costs in the second-hand housing market, enhancing liquidity [11][12]. - The reduction of the land value-added tax pre-collection rate is designed to alleviate financial burdens on real estate companies [12][14]. Summary by Sections Tax Policy Changes - Deed tax rates for individuals purchasing their first home (140 square meters or less) are reduced to 1%, while for second homes, the rate is 1% for homes up to 140 square meters and 2% for larger homes [6][9]. - In first-tier cities, the previous 3% deed tax for second homes has been adjusted to align with the new lower rates, significantly benefiting buyers [6][9]. VAT and Land Value-Added Tax Adjustments - The new policy states that individuals selling homes purchased for over two years will be exempt from VAT, which is a change from previous regulations in major cities [11]. - The land value-added tax pre-collection rate has been lowered, which is expected to ease the financial pressure on real estate companies and stabilize their tax burdens [12][14]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the recent tax policy implementations are likely to boost buyer confidence and reduce costs, which could help the real estate market recover from its downturn [15].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive," indicating an expected overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index within the next six months [50]. Core Insights - The furniture retail sales in October (M10) increased by 7.4% year-on-year, while prices for whiteboard, boxboard, and corrugated paper showed a slight increase week-on-week [4][24]. - The light industry sector experienced a decline of 3.68% this week, with a year-to-date drop of 5.55% [10][20]. - Strong performance was noted in individual stocks, with Qiangbang New Material leading with a year-to-date increase of 423.76% [10][20]. - The real estate market showed signs of pressure, with a decrease in transaction volume, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting potential recovery in the housing sector [20]. Market Review - The light industry index fell by 3.68% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [10]. - In the first ten months of 2024, furniture manufacturing revenue grew by 2.50%, and furniture exports increased by 2.51% [24][26]. - The retail sales of social consumer goods and furniture products in October showed year-on-year increases of 4.80% and 7.40%, respectively [24][25]. Real Estate Data Tracking - In October 2024, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 9.6355 million square meters, down 6.33% year-on-year, while the number of transactions decreased by 10.53% [20][21]. Industry Data Tracking - In the furniture sector, the price of TDI decreased slightly, while MDI remained stable. The current prices for TDI and MDI are 12,850 and 18,400 RMB per ton, respectively [24]. - The paper industry saw a decrease in import and export volumes for pulp and paper products, with imports down 17.70% and exports up 7.00% year-on-year [26][27]. - The packaging industry reported a rise in polyethylene prices by 2.69% year-on-year, while polypropylene prices fell by 1.74% [33]. Company Announcements - Reiter announced plans to invest in a project to produce 100,000 sets of prefabricated smart bathroom products, with an estimated total investment of 742 million RMB [37]. - Guanhao High-tech plans to transfer 100% equity and related debts of Huaxin Color Printing, with the transaction object yet to be determined [37]. Investment Recommendations - The furniture industry is expected to benefit from the recovery in the real estate sector and policies promoting consumption upgrades, suggesting a focus on resilient and undervalued leading companies [46]. - The paper industry is entering a traditional demand peak in Q4, with price increases likely to lead to profit recovery, recommending attention to integrated forest-pulp-paper leaders [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the machinery industry, specifically highlighting the rapid development of the coal chemical industry in Xinjiang, which is beneficial for equipment demand [1]. Core Viewpoints - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is experiencing rapid growth, which is expected to drive equipment demand. Xinjiang has abundant coal resources, and as coal production in central and eastern provinces declines, coal mining in Xinjiang continues to gain momentum. In the first half of 2024, the national raw coal output was 2.27 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. In contrast, Xinjiang's raw coal output reached 240 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, significantly outpacing the national average by 15.1 percentage points [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the accelerated development of the coal chemical industry in Xinjiang, which is expected to enhance equipment procurement needs. The Xinjiang government aims to increase raw coal production to 500 million tons and establish a major coal supply base and coal-to-oil and gas strategic base [11][12]. Key Industry News - In October 2024, various types of machinery sales showed mixed results, with significant growth in sales of certain equipment like graders, while others like tower cranes saw substantial declines. The report notes that the construction machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in operational rates and project initiations across various provinces [13][19][22]. Key Company Announcements - Companies such as Zhuoran Co., Hangyang Co., and Shangu Power are recommended for investment as they are expected to benefit from the increasing coal production and the rollout of coal chemical projects in Xinjiang [12]. Additionally, Shantui Co. plans to acquire a 100% stake in Shanzhong Machinery for 1.84 billion yuan to expand its excavator business, indicating strategic growth in the machinery sector [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is a leading modern service provider in the automotive logistics industry, focusing on comprehensive logistics solutions for the automotive sector [2] - The company has three main business segments: Complete Vehicle Division, International Division, and New Energy Division, with the Complete Vehicle Division being the core business [2] - Recent strategic partnerships with technology firms aim to leverage data for optimizing logistics costs and enhancing efficiency [3] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.79% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 61 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.89% [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 11.48%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - As of the end of the reporting period, accounts receivable stood at 1.269 billion yuan, with cash and cash equivalents at 551 million yuan, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 47.78% [1] - The company expects revenue growth to reach 3.783 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the machinery industry, specifically highlighting the rapid development of the coal chemical industry in Xinjiang, which is beneficial for equipment demand [1]. Core Viewpoints - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is experiencing rapid growth, leading to increased equipment demand. Xinjiang has abundant coal resources, and as coal production in central and eastern provinces declines, coal mining in Xinjiang continues to gain momentum. In the first half of 2024, the national raw coal output was 2.27 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while Xinjiang's output reached 240 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, significantly outpacing the national average by 15.1 percentage points [1][11]. - The Xinjiang government aims to accelerate the development of coal, coal power, and coal chemical industry clusters, with plans to increase raw coal output to 500 million tons and establish a national coal supply guarantee base and a coal-to-oil and gas strategic base. Several coal chemical projects are underway, including a coal-to-oil project with a total investment of 170 billion yuan and multiple coal-to-natural gas projects with a combined capacity of 6 billion cubic meters and an investment of 50 billion yuan [1][11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the positive impact of Xinjiang's coal chemical industry growth on equipment procurement needs and recommends focusing on companies such as Zhuoran Co., Hangyang Co., and Shangu Power [12]. Industry News Highlights - In October 2024, various types of construction machinery sales showed mixed results, with significant increases in some categories like graders, while others like tower cranes saw substantial declines [13][17]. - The "excavator index" indicates a rise in construction activity, suggesting a positive economic outlook supported by policy measures [19]. Key Company Announcements - Shantui Co. plans to acquire 100% of Shanzhong Machinery for 1.84 billion yuan to expand its excavator business, enhancing its competitive position in the market [22]. - The report also highlights various contracts and projects from companies like Yonggui Electric and Manster Technology, indicating ongoing business activities and potential revenue impacts [53][54].