Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting an overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [11]. Core Insights - On May 8, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.56%, while the machinery sector increased by 1.07%, ranking 6th among all primary industries. The photovoltaic equipment sub-sector saw the highest increase of 3.55%, while engineering machinery experienced the largest decline of 0.57% [3]. - Notable individual stock performances included Gaomei Co., Ltd. (+20.02%), Magu Technology (+20.01%), and Xinlei Co., Ltd. (+20.01%) on the gainers list, while Greebo (-6.70%), Gogo Technology (-6.22%), and Northern Co., Ltd. (-5.67%) led the decliners [3]. Sub-industry Summary - The humanoid robot industry is currently in a high prosperity cycle, representing a future trend in advanced products. Lenovo's entry into this market with its humanoid robot "Silicon-based Employee" aligns with industry trends, supported by a complete industrial chain [8]. - The SA750U large unmanned transport aircraft, developed by Shanhe Huayu Aviation Technology, successfully completed its first domestic test for autonomous multi-package air drop, marking a significant milestone in the development of large unmanned transport aircraft in China [9].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical raw materials sector, highlighting a significant profit growth in Q1 and an expected improvement in industry supply and demand dynamics [3][4]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical raw materials sector experienced a revenue of CNY 1176.77 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.74%, with a net profit of CNY 150.46 billion, reflecting a growth of 27.89% [3][4][21]. - In Q1 2025, the sector reported a revenue of CNY 295.46 billion, a slight decline of 0.48% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 20.87% to CNY 45.62 billion [3][4][21]. - The profit growth is attributed to several factors, including a low base in H2 2023, the end of inventory destocking by global downstream manufacturers, and improved cost management [3][4][21][23]. Summary by Sections Q1 Profit Growth and Margin Improvement - The raw materials sector's revenue remained stable year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a slight increase of 5.77% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit and non-recurring net profit saw significant year-on-year growth of 20.87% and 21.98%, respectively [3][4][21][23]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 38.00%, up 1.58 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 12.79%, an increase of 4.97 percentage points [4][24][25]. Industry Concentration and Top Companies - The top 10 companies in the raw materials sector contributed over 73.33% of total revenue in 2024, with significant contributions from companies like New and Cheng and Prolo Pharmaceuticals [31][33]. - In Q1 2025, the top 10 companies accounted for 73.19% of total revenue, with New and Cheng alone contributing over 10% [33][34]. Valuation and Construction Projects - The sector's valuation remains at historical lows, with a PE ratio of 30.26 times at the end of 2024, which is in the 14% historical percentile [5][42]. - As of Q1 2025, the construction projects in the sector totaled CNY 163.57 billion, a decrease of 4.31% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion [9][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance in the formulation and CDMO sectors, such as Aorite and Prolo Pharmaceuticals, as well as those with significant new product pipelines like Tonghe Pharmaceuticals [10][6][10].

Group 1: Market Overview - The total trading volume of the A-shares last week was 4.08 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous week[9] - The turnover rate was 4.08%, also down from the previous week[9] - The net outflow of market funds amounted to 184.42 billion yuan, indicating weakened liquidity[9] Group 2: Fund Flows and Financing - The issuance scale of equity funds was 12.728 billion yuan, a decline from the previous week[21] - Margin trading saw a net outflow of 161.45 billion yuan, with its trading volume dropping to 8.38% of the A-share total[25] - There were no IPOs last week, and the refinancing scale was 2 cases totaling 23.75 million yuan[29] Group 3: Bond Market and Interest Rates - The net injection of funds in the open market was 735.8 billion yuan last week[12] - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 3 basis points, while the yield on 1-year bonds increased by 1 basis point, narrowing the yield spread[12] - The probability of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in May rose to 97%[17] Group 4: Investor Behavior - Institutional investors reduced their holdings in the top five sectors: electric power equipment, non-bank financials, computers, electronics, and machinery[5] - The total amount of shares released from lock-up was 38.099 billion yuan, with the top three sectors being pharmaceuticals, basic chemicals, and machinery[34]

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] 金工 ETF 点评：跨境 ETF 单日净流出 23.08 亿元；银行拥挤度大幅收窄 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 一、资金流向 二、行业拥挤度监测 ◼ 通过构建行业拥挤度监测模型，对申万一级行业指数的拥挤度进行每日监测， 前一交易日纺织服饰、轻工制造、美容护理拥挤度靠前，相比较而言，煤炭 的拥挤度水平较低，建议关注。此外，有色金属、通信、银行单日拥挤度变 动较大。从主力资金流动来看，前一交易日主力资金流入计算机、电子、机 械设备，流出国防军工、轻工制造、农林牧渔。近三个交易日主力资金增配 计算机、机械设备、电子，减配公用事业、国防军工、基础化工。 三、ETF 产品关注信号 ◼ 根据溢价率 Z-score 模型搭建相关 ETF 产品筛选信号模型，通过滚动测算提 供存在潜在套利机会的标的，此外需警惕标的回调风险。 风险提示：本报告结论完全基于公开历史数据，建议关注的行业指数与 ETF 产品基于 构建的量化模型，仅供大家参考阅读， ...

2025 年 05 月 06 日 公司点评 增持/下调 今世缘(603369) 目标价: 53.64 昨收盘:47.40 今世缘：2024 年稳健收官，2025 年顺利实现开门红 ◼ 走势比较 (40%) (28%) (16%) (4%) 8% 20% 24/5/6 24/7/16 24/9/25 24/12/5 25/2/14 25/4/26 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 12.47/12.47 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 590.98/590.98 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 59.38/35.35 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<今世缘：三季度业绩符合预期，产 品结构势能延续>>--2024-11-01 <<今世缘：业绩符合预期，后百亿时 代稳中有进>>--2024-08-19 <<今世缘：一季度开门红顺利收官， 开启后百亿征程>>--2024-05-05 多产品稳健增长，省内持续深耕省外快速渗透。分产品，2024 年公 司特 A+/特 A/A/B/C&D 分别实现营收 74.91/33.47/4.19/1.42/0.74 亿 元，同比 ...

良信股份(002706) 目标价: 昨收盘:8.36 良信股份点评：优质低压电器龙头，新的成长期有望到来 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (16%) (2%) 12% 26% 40% 24/5/6 24/7/16 24/9/25 24/12/5 25/2/14 25/4/26 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 11.23/9.15 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 93.89/76.47 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 10.38/5.49 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 2025 年 05 月 04 日 公司点评 买入/维持 <<良信电器 2017 年报点评：业绩稳 健，拟进军工业自动化及智能配 电>>--2018-03-25 证券分析师：刘强 电话： E-MAIL：liuqiang@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522080001 证券分析师：梁必果 电话： E-MAIL：liangbg@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524010001 证券分析师：钟欣材 电话： E-MAIL：zhongxc@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号： ...

2025 年 05 月 01 日 公司点评 买入/维持 科大讯飞(002230) 目标价: 昨收盘:46.93 收入快速增长，持续迭代 AI 模型 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (18%) (6%) 6% 18% 30% 24/5/6 24/7/16 24/9/25 24/12/5 25/2/14 25/4/26 投资建议：公司来自于 AI 的收入实现快速增长。预计 2025-2027 年公司的 EPS 分别为 0.39/0.61/0.83 元，维持买入评级。 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 23.12/21.89 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 1,084.88/1,02 | | | 7.37 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 59.37/32.66 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<收入快速增长，AI 落地加速>>-- 2024-08-23 <<坚定 AI 战略，期待应用表现>>-- 2023-10-24 <>--2023-08-18 证券分析师：曹佩 整体收入保持高速增长。2024 年，公司收入 233.43 亿元，同比 增长 18.79%：智慧教育业务 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [5][15]. Core Insights - The company, Haopeng Technology, is positioned as a leading battery provider with significant flexibility in AI applications, showing a strong upward trend in performance [4][5]. - Recent financial results indicate a recovery, with 2024 revenue reaching 5.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.50%, and a net profit of 91 million yuan, up 81.43% [3][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.225 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.27% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 32 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 903.92% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Haopeng Technology focuses on AI application battery services and has adopted an "All in AI" strategy to expand its market presence [4]. - The company has established a global operational structure with a headquarters and multiple production bases, enhancing its global service capabilities [5]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 247 million yuan, 362 million yuan, and 479 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a strong recovery and growth potential [5][7]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the next few years are 17.08% in 2025, 20.72% in 2026, and 19.03% in 2027 [7][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rising demand in both consumer electronics and AI applications, particularly in high-energy density batteries for AI hardware [4][5]. - Haopeng Technology is targeting high-value markets and has focused its R&D on addressing the technical challenges of AI devices, such as high energy consumption and heat dissipation [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Poly Developments [1][10] Core Views - The company's revenue performance is under short-term pressure, but its leading position in the industry remains solid [1][10] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 311.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.00 billion yuan, down 58.56% year-on-year [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 54.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.09%, with a net profit of 1.95 billion yuan, down 12.27% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the full year of 2024 [4][5] Revenue and Profitability - The company's sales amount for 2024 was 323.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%, with a sales area of 17.97 million square meters, down 24.7% [6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 2 percentage points to 14% [5][10] - The company has maintained its sales amount as the industry leader for two consecutive years [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company focuses on core cities, with a sales market share in 38 core cities increasing by 2 percentage points to 90% in 2024 [6][7] - The company expanded its land acquisition in 2024 with a total land price of 68.3 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry, with 99% of the investment located in 38 core cities [7] Debt and Financing - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt was reduced by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio decreasing by 2.2 percentage points to 74.3% [9] - The financing cost continued to decline, with the comprehensive cost of newly added interest-bearing debt down 22 basis points to 2.92% [9][10] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.21 billion yuan, 5.40 billion yuan, and 6.07 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10] - Corresponding PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 19.25X, 18.54X, and 16.51X [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company is exploring the implementation of AI models across various sectors, including smart governance, smart travel, smart finance, and more [4] - The company has launched several AI models, including the "Congrong Intelligent Review Model" and a self-developed financial model, and has partnered with Huawei to release integrated AI training and inference machines [4] - The company aims to promote the prosperity of the Hongmeng ecosystem and has secured projects with Guangzhou Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [4] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be -0.45, -0.38, and -0.19 yuan respectively [4] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue is expected to be 398 million yuan, a decrease of 36.69% year-on-year, with a net profit of -696 million yuan, a decrease of 8.12% year-on-year [6][8] - Revenue is projected to grow to 440 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.64%, and further to 560 million yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 27.27% [6][8] - The company’s net profit is expected to improve from -468 million yuan in 2025 to -192 million yuan in 2027 [6][8]