消费品零售业 半年度报告 中国宏观经济、行业趋势、投资交易及税务快讯 © 2025 毕马威企业咨询 （中国） 有限公司 — 中国有限责任公司，是与毕马威国际有限公司 （英国私营担保有限公司） 相关联的独立成员所全球组织中的成员。版权所有，不得转载。 1 2024年下半年 | 目 录 | | | --- | --- | | 宏观经济形势 | 04 | | 近期动态对行业的影响 | 11 | | 子行业趋势 | 17 | | 奢侈品与时尚 | 18 | | 服装与鞋类 | 22 | | 健康与美妆 | 25 | | 食品与饮料 | 31 | | 餐饮 | 34 | | 投资交易 | 38 | | 中国消费行业流行热词 | 45 | | 税务快讯 | 51 | | 前瞻性消费提振政策 | 56 | | 附录 | 64 | © 2025 毕马威企业咨询 （中国） 有限公司 — 中国有限责任公司，是与毕马威国际有限公司 （英国私营担保有限公司） 相关联的独立成员所全球组织中的成员。版权所有，不得转载。 2 © 2025 毕马威企业咨询 （中国） 有限公司 — 中国有限责任公司，是与毕马威国际有限公司 （英国私营担保有限 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant regulatory changes in the financial sector, focusing on enhancing governance, compliance, and risk management across various financial institutions [5][7][8][10][11][34][46][62][72] Summary by Sections Financial Regulatory Overview - In December, 43 new regulations were issued by various regulatory bodies, including the State Council and the Financial Regulatory Bureau, covering critical areas such as bond business, corporate governance, and compliance management [7][8] - The report emphasizes the need for financial institutions to adapt to these new regulations to ensure compliance and mitigate risks [9][10][11] Company Governance and Compliance - New regulations have been introduced to strengthen corporate governance and compliance management within financial institutions, including the establishment of clear roles and responsibilities for compliance officers [9][72] - The emphasis is on proactive compliance governance rather than reactive measures, aiming to integrate compliance into the core operations of financial institutions [72][79] Digital Empowerment for SMEs - A new action plan for the digital empowerment of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has been launched, aiming to support over 40,000 SMEs in their digital transformation by 2027 [21][22][28] - The initiative is expected to create significant opportunities for financial services tailored to the needs of SMEs, particularly in areas like digital finance and supply chain finance [28][30][29] Insurance Sector Regulations - The insurance sector is facing new internal control guidelines aimed at enhancing the management of insurance funds, particularly concerning non-standard assets [34][41] - These guidelines are designed to improve risk management capabilities and ensure the effective use of insurance funds [42][41] Data Security in Banking and Insurance - New regulations have been established to enhance data security management within banking and insurance institutions, emphasizing the importance of protecting personal information and ensuring data integrity [61][67] - Institutions are required to implement comprehensive data security frameworks and integrate data management into their overall risk management strategies [67][70] Trends and Business Impacts - The report identifies trends such as the shift towards proactive compliance governance, the need for enhanced internal controls, and the growing importance of data security in the financial sector [72][79] - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate their service offerings and adapt their risk management practices in response to these regulatory changes [30][31][42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The asset-backed securities (ABS) market in China showed steady growth in 2024, with a total issuance of 2,114 products and a scale of RMB 20,407 billion, representing a 17% increase in the number of issuances and a 9% increase in issuance scale compared to 2023 [27][30][32] - The report highlights significant policy updates aimed at enhancing the regulatory framework for asset securitization, including guidelines for public offerings of infrastructure REITs and asset-backed securities [6][11][15][21] Policy Dynamics - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange revised guidelines to improve the quality of information disclosure for public offerings of infrastructure REITs and asset-backed securities [6][7][11] - New guidelines were introduced to standardize the operational processes for supply chain bill asset securitization, promoting compliance and orderly development of the market [11][12] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the role of green finance, encouraging the issuance of green asset-backed securities to support environmental projects [11][12] Issuance Situation - In 2024, the credit ABS market saw 192 new products issued, with a total scale of RMB 2,704 billion, marking a 23% decrease in issuance scale compared to the previous year [30][34] - Corporate ABS dominated the market with 1,323 new products and a total issuance of RMB 11,825 billion, reflecting a 6% increase in the number of issuances [30][34] - Public REITs experienced a significant surge, with 29 new products issued, totaling RMB 635 billion, representing increases of 190% in the number of issuances and 152% in issuance scale compared to 2023 [30][34] Clearing Situation - The report does not provide specific details on the clearing situation for the industry Industry Hotspot Analysis - The top issuer in the credit ABS market for 2024 was Jianxin Trust Co., Ltd., with 36 projects totaling RMB 974.29 billion [37][39] - The leading initiator in the credit ABS market was China Construction Bank, with 17 projects and an issuance amount of RMB 573.49 billion [37][39] - The report indicates a growing trend in the issuance of green bonds and asset-backed securities, aligning with national strategies for sustainable development [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the financial industry. Core Insights - The total number of penalties issued by the People's Bank of China and the Financial Regulatory Authority decreased in 2024 compared to 2023, but the number of penalties and amounts issued by the Financial Regulatory Authority increased compared to 2022 [4][20]. - The average penalty amount remains high despite the overall decrease in the number of penalties, indicating a continued strict regulatory environment [32]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Penalties Overview - In 2024, a total of 1,313 penalties were issued, amounting to 9.5 billion yuan, with the People's Bank penalizing 166 entities and the Financial Regulatory Authority penalizing 453 entities [2][4]. - The number of penalties and total fines decreased in 2024 compared to 2023, but the number of entities penalized by the Financial Regulatory Authority increased by 17.97% compared to 2022 [4]. Individual Penalties Overview - In 2024, 1,491 penalties were issued to individuals, totaling 58.6642 million yuan, involving 1,844 individuals [6][8]. - The trend shows a focus on accountability at all levels within financial institutions, despite an overall decrease in penalties compared to 2023 [6]. Penalty Trends - The highest single penalty for an institution was 67.24 million yuan, while the highest individual penalty was 3.11 million yuan [11][12]. - December 2024 saw the highest number of penalties issued, with a total of 124 penalties and 56.65 million yuan in fines [14][18]. Analysis by Regulatory Authority - The People's Bank issued 174 penalties in 2024, a decrease of 73.68% from the previous year, with total fines amounting to 207 million yuan [20][21]. - The Financial Regulatory Authority issued 1,139 penalties, a decrease of 46.53%, with total fines of 748 million yuan [20][21]. Analysis by Institution Type - The focus of penalties in 2024 was on rural financial institutions and insurance companies, with rural commercial banks facing the highest number of penalties [22][24]. - The total fines for rural commercial banks reached 150 million yuan, marking a significant increase compared to 2023 [26]. Reasons for Penalties - The primary reasons for penalties were data quality issues, with 434 entities penalized for such violations, totaling 674 million yuan in fines [30][31]. Future Insights - The report emphasizes the need for financial institutions to adapt to new regulatory requirements and improve their data management systems to mitigate risks associated with regulatory penalties [32][43].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the financial industry. Core Insights - The total number of penalties issued by the People's Bank of China and the Financial Regulatory Authority decreased in 2024 compared to 2023, but the number of entities penalized and the total fines increased compared to 2022 [4][20]. - The focus of penalties in 2024 was on data quality issues, with significant fines imposed on rural commercial banks and credit rating agencies [30][26]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Penalties Overview - In 2024, a total of 1,313 penalties were issued, amounting to 9.5 billion yuan, with the People's Bank penalizing 166 entities and the Financial Regulatory Authority penalizing 453 entities [2][4]. - The number of penalties and fines decreased in 2024 compared to 2023, but the number of penalized entities and total fines increased compared to 2022 [4][20]. Individual Penalties Overview - A total of 1,491 penalties were issued to individuals in 2024, with fines totaling 58.66 million yuan, affecting 1,844 individuals [6][8]. - The trend shows a focus on accountability at all levels within financial institutions, despite an overall decrease in penalties compared to 2023 [6][30]. Top Penalty Analysis - The highest single penalty for an institution was 67.24 million yuan, while the highest individual penalty reached 3.11 million yuan [11][12]. - The provinces with the highest number of penalties were Shandong, Xinjiang, and Zhejiang, with Zhejiang also having the highest total fines [16][18]. Penalty Trends - The average penalty amount remains high despite a decrease in the total number of penalties issued [20][32]. - The report indicates that the regulatory environment is becoming more stringent, with a focus on data quality and compliance [30][32]. Recommendations for Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are advised to enhance their regulatory data management systems and ensure compliance with new regulatory requirements [43][50]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating regulatory data into business operations to improve decision-making and compliance [53][55].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the financial sector's adoption of artificial intelligence, suggesting a strong investment potential in AI technologies within finance [2][15][17]. Core Insights - The financial sector is experiencing a transformation driven by artificial intelligence, with 71% of companies already implementing AI in finance, and approximately 41% achieving moderate to high application levels [4][47]. - Companies are seeing significant returns on AI investments, with 57% of leaders reporting returns exceeding expectations, compared to 25% for those in the initial stages [6][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of generative AI, with over 40% of companies piloting or applying it, and an expected increase to 56% in the next three years [10][17]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report highlights the rapid advancement of AI in finance, with nearly three-quarters of companies already utilizing AI in financial reporting processes [15][16]. AI-Driven Financial Transformation - AI is being integrated across various financial domains, with significant applications in accounting and financial planning, leading to improved efficiency and decision-making [51][47]. AI Investment Return Enhancement - Companies are increasingly investing in AI technologies, with machine learning, deep learning, and generative AI identified as the most valuable [5][56]. Overcoming AI Application Barriers - Data security concerns are the primary barrier to AI adoption, with 57% of respondents citing it as a major issue, followed by limited AI skills and high implementation costs [7][8]. Trends in Financial Reporting - Approximately 30% of companies have adopted AI in financial reporting, with projections indicating this will rise to 83% in the next three years [9][10]. Action Recommendations - The report provides actionable recommendations for companies to enhance their AI integration in finance, emphasizing the need for strategic planning and collaboration with auditors [12][18].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is consulting on optimizing the pricing and public market regulations for initial public offerings (IPOs) to enhance attractiveness and competitiveness for existing and potential issuers [1][2] - Proposed measures include adjustments to public float requirements, initial public float thresholds, and flexible pricing mechanisms to improve market participation and reduce discrepancies between offer prices and actual trading prices post-listing [1][3][4] Summary by Sections Public Market Regulations - HKEX suggests calculating public float percentage based solely on the relevant securities category for listing, excluding shares listed on other regulated markets [3] - A tiered initial public float threshold is proposed, with varying requirements based on expected market capitalization, aiming to attract larger issuers while aligning with international standards [4][5] - The report seeks feedback on whether issuers should maintain public float levels post-listing and the current suspension rules for those falling below thresholds [6] Initial Public Float - The proposed tiered structure for initial public float includes four levels based on expected market capitalization, with minimum public holdings ranging from 5% to 25% [4][5] Free Float - New applicants must ensure a minimum free float of 10% with a market value of at least 50 million HKD or a total market value of 600 million HKD at listing [7][8] A + H Issuers - The minimum threshold for A + H issuers is proposed to be reduced to 10% of total issued shares or a market value of at least 3 billion HKD, addressing concerns about high barriers for large issuers [9] IPO Pricing Mechanisms - HKEX is seeking opinions on maintaining a six-month lock-up period for cornerstone investors or allowing phased release of lock-up [10] - A minimum of 50% of IPO shares is proposed to be allocated to the book-building portion to enhance pricing influence [11] - The report suggests replacing current allocation rules for public subscription with options that allow for more flexible distribution based on demand [12][13] - A flexible pricing mechanism is proposed, allowing issuers to increase the final offer price by up to 10% post-prospectus publication [14] Public Consultation - The public consultation period for these proposals is open until March 19, 2025, with HKEX planning to publish a summary and final version of the listing rules after considering feedback [15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has published a consultation summary regarding the review of the Corporate Governance Code and related Listing Rules, indicating a commitment to enhancing corporate governance standards to meet shareholder expectations [2][3] Summary by Sections Corporate Governance Code Revisions - The HKEX has proposed several key revisions to the Corporate Governance Code, including the appointment of a Chief Independent Non-Executive Director as a best practice rather than a mandatory rule [5] - Enhanced disclosure requirements for shareholder engagement in the Corporate Governance Report have been introduced to promote constructive dialogue between the board and shareholders [5] Director Training Requirements - Mandatory training for directors has been revised, with initial directors who have served on overseas listed companies required to complete only 12 hours of training instead of 24 [6] - The reset mechanism for training hours has been removed, allowing prior training to count towards the requirement for subsequent appointments within three years [6] Independent Non-Executive Director Independence - A phased implementation of a hard cap on the tenure of independent non-executive directors has been established, with the first phase requiring that a majority of independent directors not be long-serving by July 1, 2028, and the second phase requiring all independent directors to meet this criterion by July 1, 2031 [7][9] - The cooling-off period for long-serving independent directors has been extended from two years to three years [7] Diversity and Risk Management - New rules require issuers to disclose their diversity policies for the board and all employees, including gender ratios [8] - Enhanced disclosure on the effectiveness of risk management and internal control systems is mandated, with annual reviews required [8] Implementation Timeline - The revised Corporate Governance Code and related Listing Rules will take effect on July 1, 2025, with specific transitional arrangements for compliance [11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking industry Core Insights - The Chinese banking industry is entering a prolonged low-interest-rate cycle, with net interest margins at historical lows and continuing to narrow. This situation poses challenges for banks that heavily rely on interest income for revenue growth and profitability [7] - A significant portion of surveyed banks has shifted from optimistic to pessimistic outlooks regarding future growth, with over 50% now holding a negative outlook for the next three years [24][32] - The report emphasizes the need for banks to adopt proactive strategies to navigate the current economic environment, focusing on transforming business models, enhancing risk management, and developing core competencies [14] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report highlights the challenges faced by the banking sector, including rising default rates among corporate and individual clients due to issues in the real estate market and local government debts [7] - It draws comparisons with other economies that have successfully navigated low-interest-rate environments, suggesting strategies such as optimizing income structures and focusing on core customer segments [7] Survey Analysis - The survey collected responses from 31 banks, revealing a significant shift in sentiment regarding future growth prospects, with a notable increase in pessimism among regional banks [19][24] - The report identifies key macroeconomic trends impacting the banking sector, including economic slowdown, demographic changes, and regulatory pressures [32] Hot Topics - The report discusses various strategic areas for banks, including digital transformation, risk management, and cost optimization, which are seen as critical for future success [50][54] - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing management capabilities and adopting a more integrated approach to business operations [13][61] Macroeconomic Trends - The report forecasts a GDP growth rate of approximately 4.6% for 2025, driven by supportive fiscal and monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [79] - It highlights the need for banks to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and market conditions, particularly in light of the ongoing economic challenges [81]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking industry Core Insights - The Chinese banking industry is entering a prolonged low-interest-rate cycle, with net interest margins at historical lows and continuing to narrow. This poses challenges for banks that heavily rely on interest income for revenue growth and profitability [7] - A significant portion of banks (over 70%) have shifted from optimistic to pessimistic outlooks regarding future growth, particularly among regional banks [24] - The report emphasizes the need for banks to adopt proactive strategies to navigate the current economic environment, focusing on risk management, digital transformation, and operational efficiency [14][65] Summary by Sections 01 - Survey Analysis - The survey collected responses from 31 banks, covering various types including state-owned, joint-stock, and regional banks, with asset sizes ranging from below 100 billion to over 10 trillion [19] - Over half of the surveyed banks now hold a pessimistic view of future growth, a significant shift from earlier periods [24] 02 - Overview - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a GDP growth of approximately 4.6% for 2025, with a focus on stabilizing domestic demand through fiscal and monetary policies [79] - The report identifies key challenges such as economic slowdown, increased competition, and regulatory pressures, while also highlighting opportunities in digital transformation and ESG [32][47] 03 - Hot Topics - The report discusses several emerging themes in the banking sector, including: - New financial paradigms such as green finance and inclusive finance [4] - The importance of digital finance and the integration of technology in banking operations [4] - The need for banks to optimize their income structures to cope with narrowing interest margins [5] 04 - Appendix - The appendix includes recommendations for banks to focus on operational efficiency, risk management, and digital transformation as key strategies for future growth [10][11][13]