I am Steven Cress, Head of Quantitative Strategies at Seeking Alpha. I manage the quant ratings and factor grades on stocks and ETFs in Seeking Alpha Premium. I also lead Alpha Picks , which selects the two most attractive stocks to buy each month, and also determines when to sell them.The consumer staples sector is off to a strong start in 2026, on pace for its best January performance in over a decade. This momentum is driven by renewed investor appetite for valueSteven Cress is VP of Quantitative Strateg ...

Core Insights - The analyst has over a decade of experience researching various companies across different sectors, including commodities and technology, which enhances the quality of content provided to readers [1] Group 1: Company Focus - The analyst has a particular interest in covering metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with other industries such as consumer discretionary, consumer staples, REITs, and utilities [1] Group 2: Research Methodology - The transition from a personal blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel indicates a shift towards a more visual and engaging format for research dissemination, having researched hundreds of companies to date [1]

Group 1 - Ambev is considered a cheap penny stock, with Barclays maintaining a Hold rating and a price target of $2.5, while Bernstein downgraded it to Market Perform with a price target of $2.88 due to valuation concerns after a 16% year-to-date gain [1][2] - In Q3 2025, Ambev's premiumization strategy led to over 9% growth in volumes for premium and super-premium brands, capturing nearly 50% market share in Brazil [2] - The company's digital ecosystem showed significant growth, with the marketplace initiative's GMV increasing 100% to an annualized BRL 8 billion, and the DTC platform Ze Delivery seeing a 7% GMV increase [2] Group 2 - Despite positive developments, Ambev faced challenges such as softer beer industry volumes in Brazil due to unseasonably cold weather and constrained consumer purchasing power, along with a mid-single-digit decline in Argentina's beer volumes [3] - Financially, Ambev reported a normalized net income of BRL 3.8 billion (up 7%) and a stated net income of BRL 4.9 billion, representing a 36% increase year-over-year [3] - Ambev operates in the production, distribution, and sale of various beverages across Brazil, Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of Latin America and Canada [4]

On Dec. 23, 2025, Ambev posts gains after a major hedge fund’s 400% stake jump balances cautious ratings.NYSE : ABEVAmbevToday's Change( 3.48 %) $ 0.08Current Price$ 2.38Key Data PointsMarket Cap$36BDay's Range$ 2.34 - $ 2.4052wk Range$ 1.73 - $ 2.58Volume3.5MAvg Vol40MGross Margin48.20 %Dividend Yield10.30 %Ambev (ABEV +3.48%), a Latin American beer and soft-drink producer, closed Tuesday at $2.37, up 3.04% for the session. Trading volume reached 47.5 million shares, nearly 18% above its three-month averag ...

We recently published 10 Stocks Struggling to Shine Ahead of Christmas. Ambev SA (NYSE:ABEV) is one of the worst performers on Monday. Ambev dropped its share prices by 7.63 percent to close at $2.30 apiece amid the lack of catalysts to boost buying appetite and what appeared to be an early window-dressing. The practice is common among institutional investors, where they tweak portfolios before the reporting periods, typically quarterly and annually, by loading up on well-performing stocks and trimming ...

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Core Thesis - Ambev S.A. is perceived as undervalued, trading at approximately a 23% discount to its fair value, suggesting a potential annual alpha of 9% if the valuation gap closes within three years [2] Valuation Metrics - As of December 1st, Ambev's share price was $2.57, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 13.45 and 13.26 respectively [1] - The stock is trading at 14–15× forward P/E compared to its historical average of 17–18×, indicating a potential re-rating towards $2.9/share as margins normalize [4] Financial Performance - Ambev has experienced approximately 12% growth in BRL in 2024 and a long-term CAGR of 10% locally, although its USD performance has faced translation losses with 2–4% declines in EPS and FCF over the past decade [2] - Easing input costs, pricing discipline, and premiumization through brands like Budweiser, Stella, and Corona are contributing to margin recovery [3] Market Conditions - Stabilizing volumes and operating leverage from Brazil's scale, along with strong performance in Latin America South, could enhance profitability [3] - Currency stability and falling interest rates, combined with Ambev's net cash position, support cash generation and a projected 5–6% dividend yield [3] Competitive Landscape - Risks include renewed cost inflation, FX headwinds from BRL depreciation, macroeconomic uncertainty in Brazil and Argentina, competitive pressures from Heineken and local brewers, and limited long-term volume growth in a mature beer market [4] Investor Sentiment - Despite strong fundamentals, there is caution regarding execution missteps or reduced dividends that could negatively impact sentiment [5] - Ambev is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 23 hedge fund portfolios holding ABEV at the end of Q2, up from 21 in the previous quarter [7]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis compares Ambev (ABEV) and Brown-Forman B (BF.B) to determine which stock offers better value for investors currently [1]. Valuation Metrics - Both ABEV and BF.B hold a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive earnings estimate revisions and an improving earnings outlook for both companies [3]. - ABEV has a forward P/E ratio of 14.34, while BF.B has a forward P/E of 17.17, suggesting ABEV may be undervalued compared to BF.B [5]. - ABEV's PEG ratio is 2.73, which is significantly lower than BF.B's PEG ratio of 10.47, indicating ABEV's expected earnings growth is more favorable [5]. - ABEV's P/B ratio is 2.32, compared to BF.B's P/B of 3.39, further supporting ABEV's valuation as more attractive [6]. - Based on these valuation metrics, ABEV is considered the superior value option compared to BF.B [7].

Upgrades - Argus upgraded Herbalife (HLF) to Buy from Hold, citing a Q3 earnings beat and raising FY25 EPS view by $0.03 to $2.15 and FY26 view by $0.04 to $2.64 [2] - JPMorgan upgraded Atmus Filtration (ATMU) to Overweight from Neutral with a price target increase to $60 from $53, following the proposed acquisition of Koch Filter [2] - Morgan Stanley upgraded Amentum (AMTM) to Equal Weight from Underweight, raising the price target to $35 from $20, indicating a more balanced risk/reward at current share levels [3] - Northland upgraded NetApp (NTAP) to Outperform from Market Perform, increasing the price target to $137 from $120, after reporting revenue growth of 4% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 and guidance for 5% growth in the second half of FY26 [3] - Deutsche Bank upgraded Autodesk (ADSK) to Buy from Hold, raising the price target to $375 from $345, following "very healthy" Q3 results described as one of the "cleanest" quarterly prints in recent years [4] Downgrades - Macquarie downgraded Nio (NIO) to Neutral from Outperform, lowering the price target to $5.30 from $6.70, after issuing "weak" Q4 volume guidance of 122,500 units at the midpoint [5] - Craig-Hallum downgraded PagerDuty (PD) to Hold from Buy, reducing the price target to $15 from $20, noting a fundamental change in end markets negatively affecting PagerDuty [5] - UBS downgraded Biohaven (BHVN) to Neutral from Buy, with a price target decrease to $11 from $26, citing multiple R&D and regulatory setbacks impacting confidence in its pipeline [5] - Bernstein downgraded Ambev (ABEV) to Market Perform from Outperform, setting a price target of $2.88, attributing the downgrade to valuation concerns as shares rose 16% year-to-date [5] - RBC Capital downgraded Morgan Stanley Direct Lending (MSDL) to Sector Perform from Outperform, lowering the price target to $18 from $19, suggesting lower net interest income return on equity expectations for 2026 [5]