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Ambev S.A.: Diversify Out Of U.S. Assets With Beer Made In Brazil
Seeking Alpha· 2024-04-30 04:47
Core Argument - The US dollar's weakening value due to nearly $35 trillion in unpayable Treasury debt suggests investors should diversify portfolios overseas, with Ambev SA (ABEV) being a top foreign pick [1] - Ambev's undervaluation, combined with a weaker US dollar, could lead to a dramatic share price increase over 2-3 years, potentially doubling or tripling in price with a high 6.5% dividend payout [1] Weak Dollar Argument - Dedollarization in international trade is expected to continue over the next decade, driven by US deficit spending and potential economic recession risks [2] - The Brazilian Real has been gaining ground against the US dollar since mid-2020, with $1 USD now exchanging for $5.12 BRL, making foreign assets like Ambev more attractive [2] Ambev's Valuation - Ambev is currently at one of its cheapest valuations in 20 years, with a trailing dividend yield of 6.5%, the highest in the global brewery and distilled beverage industries [4] - Key financial ratios include price to trailing earnings (12.7x), sales (2.3x), cash flow (7.46x), and book value (2.26x), similar to recession lows in 2009 and 2020 [4] - Ambev's enterprise valuation metrics, such as EV to forward cash EBITDA (6.2x) and revenues (2.06x), are at 10-year lows, approaching 2009 Great Recession levels [6] Financial Metrics - Ambev's free cash flow yield is 10.1%, the highest since the 2009 global recession, and significantly higher than US large caps, which are yielding at or below 5% [7] - The company has a conservative balance sheet with more cash than debt (net $3 billion in cash), and gross profit margins exceeding 50% [5][8] Peer Comparison - Ambev is the least expensive major beer brewery or liquor distiller globally compared to peers like Heineken, Anheuser-Busch InBev, and Diageo [6] - Seeking Alpha's Quant Valuation Grade gives Ambev an "A," with key metrics like P/E Non-GAAP (TTM) at 12.45, 32.49% below the sector median [9] Earnings and Growth - Ambev's earnings estimates for 2024-26 show modest growth, with 2025 EPS expected to increase by 9.79% YoY, while sales are projected to grow steadily [10] - The company's stable business model and defensive nature make it desirable in a potential recession or market volatility scenario [9] Dividend Appeal - Ambev's trailing dividend yield of 6.48% is the highest since the company began paying dividends in 2006 and the strongest relative to the S&P 500 index [11] - The yield is also the highest among peer breweries and distillers, making it an attractive income investment with a sound balance sheet and strong profit margins [12] Upside Potential - A return to 10-year average financial ratios could push Ambev's share price to $4.00, offering a potential total return of +80% [15] - If the US dollar declines further and the Brazilian economy outperforms, price targets of $5 or $6 are possible, with total returns of +150% to +200% over 2-3 years [15] Downside Risks - A material decline in the Brazilian Real vs the US dollar or global financial turmoil could pressure Ambev's operating results and share price [14] - However, Ambev's current valuation is so cheap that it is expected to outperform the S&P 500 in a bear market scenario [14]
Ambev: A Currency That Produces Beer
Seeking Alpha· 2024-04-02 05:13
Core Viewpoint - Ambev's valuation is closely linked to the strength of the Brazilian Real, making traditional financial metrics less relevant for investment analysis [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Correlation - Ambev's share price shows a negative correlation with earnings per share (EPS), free cash flow (FCF), and revenue, despite the company achieving an annual revenue growth rate of approximately 8.5% [2][3]. - The correlation between Ambev's share price and the USD to BRL exchange rate is strong and negative, with the share price decreasing by about $1.56 for every Brazilian Real gained against the US Dollar [3][4]. - The Brazilian Real has depreciated at a rate of about 7.8% per year, which is comparable to Ambev's revenue growth rate, indicating a challenging environment for the company [7]. Group 2: Market Position and Size - Ambev is a significant player in the Latin American beer market, controlling approximately 80% of the market in Argentina, 70% in Brazil, and 60% in Peru [11]. - The company produced 183.7 million hectoliters of beer, making it the third-largest producer globally when considering its parent company, AB InBev [8]. Group 3: Profitability and Financial Health - Ambev leads the industry in net margin at 18%, significantly outperforming competitors like Heineken and Constellation Brands [9]. - The company has maintained a negative net debt position since 2012, showcasing strong financial discipline and a robust balance sheet [10]. Group 4: Growth Drivers and Challenges - Ambev has seen substantial growth in its premium and super premium brands, which has helped offset volume decreases [11]. - The company faces headwinds from currency volatility and political instability in Brazil and Argentina, which could impact its performance [12][13]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The potential for investment in Ambev hinges on either the Brazilian Real regaining value or the company outpacing the Real's depreciation through revenue and profit growth [7]. - Ambev offers a high dividend yield of about 6%, which is a significant factor for investors, although this is subject to changes in Brazilian tax policy [18].
5 Cheap Dividend Stocks: Which to Buy Now
MarketBeat· 2024-04-01 13:55
Key PointsMarketbeat's screening tools include the Cheap Dividend Stock list, a treasure trove of investment ideas. Investors need to apply additional due diligence when using this or any screening tool. Four of the top five listed stocks are solid candidates for income investors. 5 stocks we like better than Big 5 Sporting GoodsAmong Marketbeat’s numerous investor resources are screener pages seeking hard-to-find investments. One of those tools is the screener page for Cheap Dividend Stocks, which is a ver ...
AMBEV'S 2023 ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 20-F AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE
Prnewswire· 2024-03-11 22:57
Group 1 - Ambev S.A. filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2023 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 11, 2024 [1] - The report is available on the Company's website and the SEC's website [1] - ADR holders can request a hard copy of the complete audited financial statements free of charge [1]
Ambev(ABEV) - 2023 Q4 - Annual Report
2024-03-10 16:00
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 20-F (Mark One) ¨ REGISTRATION STATEMENT PURSUANT TO SECTION 12(b) OR 12(g) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 OR x ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023 OR ¨ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 OR ¨ SHELL COMPANY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF ...
Ambev(ABEV) - 2023 Q4 - Annual Report
2024-03-10 16:00
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 6-K Report of Foreign Private Issuer Pursuant to Rule 13a-16 or 15d-16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the month of March, 2024 Commission File Number 1565025 AMBEV S.A. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) AMBEV S.A. (Translation of Registrant's name into English) Rua Dr. Renato Paes de Barros, 1017 - 3rd Floor 04530-000 São Paulo, SP Federative Republic of Brazil (Address of principal executive office) Indicate by ...
3 Stocks With 5% Dividend Yields for $20 (or Less)
InvestorPlace· 2024-02-21 11:35
Group 1: AT&T (T) - AT&T is viewed as a viable investment for those believing in its future growth despite current stagnation [2] - The company reported higher-than-expected revenues and added more postpaid customers than anticipated, although it missed earnings by a few cents [2] - AT&T offers a dividend yield of 6.5%, providing passive income for investors [2] Group 2: Ambev (ABEV) - Ambev's stock is currently trading at approximately $2.50, with analysts projecting a target price of $3.43 and potential for price appreciation [3][4] - The company offers a dividend yield just above 5%, making it attractive for income-focused investors [3] - Ambev has shown rapid revenue growth over the past three years and is financially secure, ranking higher than 79% of its competitors in the brewery sector [4] Group 3: Kinder Morgan (KMI) - Kinder Morgan operates critical pipeline transportation infrastructure in the energy sector and has a current dividend yield of 6.8% [5] - The company anticipates paying $1.15 per share in dividends this year and expects to maintain yields above 6% in 2024 [5] - Despite a decline in earnings and distributable cash flow by 10% and 4% respectively in the fourth quarter, investors are betting on potential instability in energy markets to drive prices higher [6]
Wall Street Favorites: 3 Penny Stocks With Strong Buy Ratings for January 2024
InvestorPlace· 2024-01-30 18:48
Group 1: Planet Labs (PL) - Planet Labs focuses on Earth observability, providing detailed satellite imagery to various clients, including government and commercial sectors [2][3] - The company has a significant cash reserve of over $300 million and is experiencing rising revenues, indicating potential for future growth despite not yet being consistently profitable [3] Group 2: Ambev (ABEV) - Ambev is Brazil's largest beer brewing company, with a strong market presence in Brazil and other Latin American countries, benefiting from growth opportunities in emerging markets [4][5] - The company operates under Anheuser-Busch InBev but has maintained a strong position, avoiding political controversies and holding a net cash position, providing flexibility in a volatile economy [5] Group 3: Traeger (COOK) - Traeger designs and distributes wood pellet barbecue grills, capitalizing on the growing trend of home grilling, particularly among younger consumers [6][7] - After overexpansion and subsequent operating losses, Traeger is expected to return to profitability, with inventory levels normalizing and shares significantly down from their 2021 peak [7]
7 Steadfast Stocks That Are Unaffected by Interest Rate Changes
InvestorPlace· 2024-01-17 14:26
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how certain companies with strong balance sheets are well-positioned to thrive despite rising interest rates, contrasting them with more speculative and debt-laden firms that face existential risks due to these economic conditions [1]. Group 1: Companies with Strong Balance Sheets - Alphabet (GOOGL) has $120 billion in cash and short-term investments against $12 billion in long-term debt, potentially benefiting from higher interest rates through treasury bonds yielding 4%, which could generate about $5 billion annually [2]. - Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV) has no debt and has seen its stock rise over 600% since 2007, although it faces challenges due to a mine shutdown in Panama. The price of precious metals is increasing, suggesting potential for FNV shares to trend higher [4][5]. - Corteva (CTVA) has virtually no net debt and is trading at around 17 times forward earnings, making it an attractive investment opportunity despite a 25% decline in stock price over the past year [6]. - Ambev (ABEV) operates without debt and offers a greater than 5% dividend yield, trading at 15 times forward earnings, positioning it as a steady stock in a defensive industry [7][8]. - Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has only $60 million in long-term debt and focuses on less-than-truckload services, resulting in a stock price increase of over 900% in the past decade [9]. - EPAM Systems (EPAM) has no debt and a large cash balance, allowing it to adapt to geopolitical changes and continue growth in affordable IT solutions [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Tradeweb Markets (TW) has benefited from the shift to online bond trading, experiencing a 28% growth in average daily volume for 2023, including a 43% rise in December trading volumes, making it a resilient stock amid interest rate fluctuations [12][13].
Ambev(ABEV) - 2023 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2023-10-31 20:34
Ambev S.A. (NYSE:ABEV) Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call October 31, 2023 11:30 AM ET Company Participants Jean Jereissati – Chief Executive Officer Lucas Lira – Chief Financial, Investor Relations and Shared Services Officer Conference Call Participants Isabella Simonato – Bank of America Robert Ottenstein – Evercore Thiago Duarte – BTG Pactual Ben Theurer – Barclays Felipe Ucros – Scotiabank Alan Alanis – Santander Operator Good morning, good afternoon, and thank you for waiting. We would like to welcome e ...