Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [8][36]. Core Insights - The company's asset quality remains stable with a non-performing loan ratio decreasing by 2 basis points to 1.33%. The coverage ratio is at 303.87%, indicating strong risk resilience [1]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.73, 0.78, and 0.83 yuan, with net profit growth rates of 0.90%, 6.47%, and 6.70% respectively. The reasonable value range is estimated between 5.17 and 5.81 yuan [1]. - The company has shown a revenue growth of 0.03% year-on-year in 2023, with a net profit increase of 3.9%. The total assets grew by 17.5% year-on-year, and loans increased by 14.4% [17]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) for 2024E is projected at 694,652, with a year-on-year growth of 1.86%. The net profit for 2024E is expected to be 259,232 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.90% [3]. - The average return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.19% in 2024E, while the average return on assets (ROA) is expected to be 0.61% [3]. - The company’s total deposits increased by 15.0% year-on-year, with personal customer deposits reaching 17.11 trillion yuan, maintaining the highest balance and increment in the industry [17]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.70 times for 2024E, compared to a peer average of 0.53 times, indicating a reasonable valuation range of 5.17 to 5.81 yuan [1][35]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is between 5.96 and 7.99 times, compared to the peer average of 5.35 times [1].

＃dyCompany＃ 农业银行（601288.SH） ＃dyStockcode＃ ＃title 利润增速领跑同业，规模扩张势能强劲 ——农业银行 2023 年年报点评 投资要点 ＃summary＃ ⚫ 非息高增支撑营收增速回正，利润增速领跑同业。2023 年营收同比+0.03%（Q4 单季度+1.9%），归母净利润同比+3.9%（Q4 单季度+0.5%），营收增速边际回 正，利润增速有所下降，但领跑国有大行。拆分来看，①净利息收入同比-3.1% （Q4 单季度-2.7%），降幅略有收窄，主要由于息差下行拖累，规模扩张稳健。 ②手续费净收入同比-1.5%（Q4 单季度-4.2%），主要受资本市场波动、产品费 率下调等因素影响，代理业务手续费同比-15%。③其他非息收入同比+83%(Q4 单季+284.8%)，其中投资净收益+汇兑净收益同比增加 210 亿元支撑营收。 ⚫ 息差持续收窄，同比-30bp。2023 年末净息差 1.60%，环比-2bp，同比-30bp。 拆分结构看，贷款收益率 3.79%，同比-30bp，其中对公贷款收益率，同比-28bp， 零售贷款收益率较，同比-37bp，主要受 LPR 下调、 ...

[Table_RightTitle] [Table_Title] 规模稳步扩张 资产质量保持稳健 农业银行发布 2023 年度业绩报告。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------|---------------------------------|-------|-------| | [Table_ForecastSample] | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元 ) | | 694,828 690,271 699,382 734,222 | | | | 增长比率 ( % ) | 0.03 | -0.66 | 1.32 | 4.98 | | 归母净利润 (百万元) | | 269,356 273,177 276,016 285,344 | | | | 增长比率 ( % ) | 3.91 | 1.42 | 1.04 | 3.38 | | 每股收益(元 ) | | 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.76 | | | | 市盈率(倍 ) | | 5.81 5.72 5.66 ...

Agricultural Bank of China Limited (OTCPK:ACGBY) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call March 28, 2024 5:00 AM ET Company Participants Gu Shu - Chairman, Interim President and Executive Director Wu Gang - Chief Risk Officer Zhang Xuguang - Executive Vice President and Executive Director Lin Li - Executive Vice President and Executive Director Liu Xiaopeng - Non-Executive Director Conference Call Participants Claire Ouyang - Goldman Sachs Tong Wu - Citi Katelyn Lilly - JPMorgan Chase Gu Shu [Interpreted] Ladies an ...

Financial Performance - The bank achieved a net profit of RMB 269.82 billion for the year 2023, reflecting its strong financial performance[3]. - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 269,820 million, a rise of 4.4% compared to RMB 258,866 million in 2022[17]. - The bank achieved a net profit of RMB 269.82 billion in 2023, an increase of RMB 10.95 billion or 4.2% compared to the previous year[50]. - Operating income for 2023 was RMB 694,828 million, a decrease from RMB 724,868 million in 2022[27]. - The company’s total operating income was RMB 694.83 billion, slightly up from RMB 694.65 billion year-over-year[75]. - Total operating revenue for 2023 reached 694.83 billion RMB, slightly up from 694.65 billion RMB in 2022, indicating a growth of 0.02%[81]. Asset and Liability Management - As of the end of 2023, the total assets of Agricultural Bank of China amounted to RMB 39,872.99 billion, with total loans and advances of RMB 22,614.62 billion and total deposits of RMB 28,898.47 billion[3]. - Total assets reached RMB 39,872,989 million in 2023, up from RMB 33,925,488 million in 2022, representing a growth of 17.5%[15]. - The bank's total liabilities reached RMB 36,976,122 million in 2023, up from RMB 31,253,082 million in 2022, indicating a growth of 18.5%[27]. - The bank's total equity reached RMB 28,968.67 billion, reflecting an increase of RMB 2,231.07 billion or 8.3% from the previous year[109]. - Customer deposits increased by RMB 37,774.28 billion, a growth of 15.0%, with personal deposits accounting for 60.2% of total deposits[102]. Credit and Loan Growth - Total loans and advances amounted to RMB 22,614,621 million in 2023, an increase of 14.2% from RMB 19,763,827 million in 2022[16]. - Loan balance in rural areas reached RMB 8.78 trillion, with an annual increase of RMB 1.45 trillion, accounting for over 50% of total loan growth[33]. - The balance of loans to private enterprises reached RMB 54,500 million, increasing by RMB 11,095 million or 25.6% compared to the previous year[126]. - The balance of personal loans reached 8.06 trillion yuan, with an increase of 514.63 billion yuan year-on-year[136]. - The balance of personal consumption loans, including credit cards, was 1.04 trillion yuan, up by 199.5 billion yuan from the previous year[138]. Risk Management and Asset Quality - The capital adequacy ratio stood at 17.14%, indicating a solid capital position[3]. - Non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.33% in 2023, down from 1.37% in 2022[22]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio was 1.33% at the end of 2023, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous year[47]. - Provision coverage ratio increased to 32.81% in 2023, compared to 30.46% in 2022[26]. - The bank will focus on risk prevention and management to avoid systemic financial risks[43]. Customer Base and Services - The total number of personal customers reached 867 million, maintaining the first position in the industry[36]. - The bank's mobile banking monthly active users reached 213 million, maintaining a leading position in the comparable industry[38]. - The number of active customers in the transaction banking business reached 4,900,700 by the end of 2023[129]. - The company served 1,087,190 corporate banking customers, with 522,300 of them having loan balances, an increase of 110,800 customers year-over-year[125]. - The company provided over 100,000 home service visits for elderly clients in 2023, enhancing its service outreach[143]. Strategic Focus and Initiatives - The bank emphasizes its commitment to serving rural revitalization and the real economy through its strategic focus on inclusive finance, green finance, and digital operations[3]. - The bank plans to enhance services in five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance[43]. - The company has established partnerships with 32 provincial government platforms, enhancing its service capabilities in the public sector[129]. - The bank invested a total of RMB 24.85 billion in information technology in 2023, focusing on enhancing financial technology applications and digital infrastructure[181]. - The bank launched a series of rural revitalization-themed wealth management products, peaking at nearly RMB 100 billion in scale[183]. Financial Investments and Income - The bank's interest income for 2023 was RMB 1,223.70 billion, an increase of RMB 115.23 billion, primarily due to an increase in the average balance of interest-earning assets by RMB 483.11 billion[56]. - Interest income from loans and advances reached RMB 808.67 billion, an increase of RMB 46.93 billion, or 6.2% year-over-year, primarily due to the growth in the scale of loans and advances[57]. - Bond investment interest income amounted to RMB 308.17 billion, up RMB 30.61 billion, or 11.0% year-over-year, driven by an increase in bond investment scale[60]. - The bank's fee and commission income decreased by RMB 1.19 billion or 1.5% to RMB 80.09 billion in 2023[50]. - Other non-interest income rose to RMB 42.99 billion, an increase of RMB 19.50 billion, or 82.9% year-over-year, with investment income contributing significantly[68]. Employee and Operational Insights - As of the end of 2023, the total number of employees in the company is 451,003, with 787 located in overseas branches and representative offices[193]. - The employee distribution by region shows that the western region has the highest number of employees at 117,534, accounting for 26.1% of the total[194]. - The educational background of employees indicates that 62.1% hold a bachelor's degree, while only 0.1% have a doctoral degree[194]. - The company has implemented a compensation policy that links employee remuneration to performance and strategic execution, promoting high-quality development[192]. - The company has a total of 22,843 domestic branches, with the central region having the highest number at 5,167, representing 22.6% of the total[196].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Agricultural Bank (601288.SH) with a current price of 4.23 CNY, corresponding to a 0.6 times price-to-book ratio for 2024 [5][14]. Core Views - The bank demonstrates significant advantages in county-level finance, with solid asset quality and a stable performance in serving the real economy [4][14]. - The bank's revenue and net profit both achieved positive growth in 2023, with total revenue reaching 694.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 269.4 billion CNY, up 3.9% year-on-year [13][14]. - The bank's county-level financial business has shown resilience, with county-level revenue growing by 4.3% year-on-year [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Agricultural Bank's total revenue was 694.8 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 0.03%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 269.4 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 3.9% [13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.78 CNY, with subsequent years expected to be 0.80 CNY in 2025 and 0.83 CNY in 2026 [14][26]. Asset Quality - As of the end of 2023, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.33%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous year, indicating a stable asset quality [13][33]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was reported at 304%, showcasing strong risk mitigation capabilities [13][33]. Business Growth - Total assets, total loans, and total deposits increased by 17.5%, 14.4%, and 15.0% year-on-year, respectively, with county-level loans and deposits growing by 19.8% and 14.2% [13][14]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) was recorded at 1.6% at the end of 2023, with a decline of 30 basis points over the year [13][14]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with projected EPS of 0.78 CNY for 2024, 0.80 CNY for 2025, and 0.83 CNY for 2026 [14][26]. - The report anticipates continued strength in county-level financial services, which are expected to support overall revenue growth [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A / Buy - H" with a current price of 4.17 CNY / 3.30 HKD and a fair value of 5.16 CNY / 4.09 HKD [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady expansion in assets and liabilities, with interest-earning assets growing by 17.6% year-on-year, and loan scale increasing by 14.4%. Corporate loans rose by 19%, with significant growth in manufacturing, technology innovation, green credit, and inclusive small and micro finance [4]. - The asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.33% at the end of 2023, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter. The new NPL generation rate was 0.56%, a decrease of 7 basis points year-on-year [4]. - Other non-interest income saw a substantial increase of 83% year-on-year, with a remarkable 285% growth in Q4 2023, primarily driven by investment income from trading financial assets [4]. - The net interest margin for 2023 was 1.60%, reflecting a decline of 2 basis points compared to the first three quarters of 2023 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 0.03%, -1.8%, and 3.9% year-on-year, respectively [6]. - The cumulative performance for 2023 showed a slight increase in net profit growth compared to the first three quarters, driven by scale growth and other income adjustments [6][7]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit growth in 2024 and 2025 is 1.6% and 2.0%, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 0.78 CNY and 0.79 CNY. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.4X for 2023 and 5.3X for 2024, and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.56X and 0.52X for the same years [7]. - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on a fair PB valuation of 0.7X for 2024, translating to a fair value of 5.16 CNY per share [7]. Asset and Liability Management - The yield on interest-earning assets for 2023 was 3.41%, down 2 basis points from the first half of 2023, influenced by the repricing of existing mortgages and declining rates on new loans [29]. - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities increased to 1.96%, reflecting a rise in foreign currency deposit costs and a decrease in the liquidity of RMB deposits [29]. Market Performance - The company's stock performance relative to the market showed fluctuations, with a notable 21% increase from March 2023 to March 2024 [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [28]. Core Views - The company has shown a positive revenue growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 0.03% in 2023, recovering from a decline of -0.54% in the previous year [28]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 3.91% year-on-year, ranking first among major banks, outperforming the overall growth rate of commercial banks at 3.24% [28]. - The company's performance is supported by rapid scale expansion, positive contributions from income tax, provisions, and other non-interest income, which mitigated the negative impact of interest margin [28]. - The net interest margin for 2023 was 1.60%, a decrease of 30 basis points year-on-year, influenced by a decline in loan interest rates [28]. - The company has accelerated its expansion in county-level financial services, with county loans growing by 19.8% year-on-year, accounting for over 50% of total loan increments [28]. - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.33%, indicating improved asset quality [28]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's total assets, total liabilities, total loans, and total deposits grew by 17.52%, 18.31%, 14.41%, and 14.96% year-on-year, respectively [28]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 10.72%, indicating a reasonable level of capital adequacy [28]. - The report forecasts steady growth in net profit, with projections of 2802 million in 2024 and 2932 million in 2025 [21].

免责声明 分析师声明 国信证券投资评级 本公司具备中国证监会核准的证券投资咨询业务资格。证券投资咨询，是指从事证券投资咨询业务的机 构及其投资咨询人员以下列形式为证券投资人或者客户提供证券投资分析、预测或者建议等直接或者间 接有偿咨询服务的活动：接受投资人或者客户委托，提供证券投资咨询服务；举办有关证券投资咨询的 讲座、报告会、分析会等；在报刊上发表证券投资咨询的文章、评论、报告，以及通过电台、电视台等 公众传播媒体提供证券投资咨询服务；通过电话、传真、电脑网络等电信设备系统，提供证券投资咨询 服务；中国证监会认定的其他形式。 发布证券研究报告是证券投资咨询业务的一种基本形式，指证券公司、证券投资咨询机构对证券及证券 相关产品的价值、市场走势或者相关影响因素进行分析，形成证券估值、投资评级等投资分析意见，制 作证券研究报告，并向客户发布的行为。 上海浦东民生路 1199 弄证大五道口广场 1 号楼 12 层 邮编：200135 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道；分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，通过合理判断并得出结论， 力求独立、客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响；作者在过去、现在或未来未就其研究报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) with a current price of 4.17 CNY [11]. Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China shows steady growth in its "Three Rural" business, with strong revenue and profit resilience [1]. - The bank's asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.33% at the end of 2023, down 4 basis points from the beginning of the year [29]. - The bank's non-interest income increased by 17.5% year-on-year, contributing to a slight decline in its proportion of total revenue [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - As of the end of 2023, Agricultural Bank's total assets, interest-earning assets, and loans grew by 17.5%, 17.6%, and 14.4% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The bank's loan growth was characterized by a strong focus on corporate and retail loans, with significant increases in key sectors such as manufacturing and high-tech industries [2]. Non-Interest Income - The bank's non-interest income reached 123.1 billion CNY, accounting for 17.7% of total revenue, slightly down from earlier in the year [3]. - The growth in non-interest income was driven by a significant increase in investment income and foreign exchange gains [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.78, 0.81, and 0.84 CNY, respectively [4]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratios are projected at 0.56, 0.52, and 0.48 for the next three years, indicating a favorable valuation [4]. Asset Quality - The bank's NPL balance increased to 300.8 billion CNY, with a net increase of 29.7 billion CNY for the year, reflecting a manageable risk profile [29]. - The bank's provisioning coverage ratio stands at 303.9%, indicating strong risk absorption capacity [29]. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio was reported at 17.14% at the end of 2023, demonstrating a solid capital position [32]. - The bank's Tier 1 capital ratio was 12.87%, reflecting a stable capital structure [32].