Canine's looking for 9% or higher Chris Amaral/DigitalVision via Getty Images How are you feeling about interest rates lately? I’m a bit bothered by the move higher. We’ve seen rates moving higher, but we’ve also seen share prices rally on some of our income investments. I want to discuss a new one we added to coverage recently. Chimera Investment Corporation (CIM) has a baby bond (CIMN). We wrote our first report on it on May 30th, 2024. I’m going to include part of that report below, along with a brief ...

krblokhin/iStock via Getty Images Co-authored by Treading Softly In 2001, the Oakland Athletics baseball team was devastated by their loss to the New York Yankees. In 2002, their general manager, Billy Beane, had to desperately come up with a new team to be able to replace many stars who were leaving. The problem was that the Oakland A's had a very small budget compared to many large Major League Baseball teams. What Billy Beane ended up doing became the focus of a book (Moneyball: The Art Of Winning An Unf ...

Dragon Claws Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE:ACRE) suffered a big decline in its distributable earnings in the first quarter as the trust works through some nonaccrual issues relating to its office and multi-family loan portfolio. The trust was forced to increase its provision for credit losses by more than $22 million in the first quarter which was widely expected after Ares Commercial Real Estate slashed its dividend pay-out by 24% in 1Q24. The stock, however, did not react much to these dis ...

Megapixel8 A year ago, I wrote a cautious article on Ares Commercial Real Estate (NYSE:ACRE), warning that commercial real estate markets were forecasted to weaken and the outlook for ACRE was negative. Since my article, ACRE's stock performance has continued to lag markets, falling 7.9% compared to a 27% return in the S&P 500 (Figure 1). Figure 1 - ACRE has lagged markets (Seeking Alpha) With a year gone by, let us review the concerns I had concerning ACRE to see if they have been resolved, and also ...

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE:ACRE) Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call May 9, 2024 9:00 AM ET Company Participants John Stilmar - Managing Director, Investor Relations Bryan Donohoe - CEO Tae-Sik Yoon - CFO Conference Call Participants Doug Harter - UBS Jason Sabshon - KBW Stephen Laws - Raymond James Steven Delaney - Citizens JMP Richard Shane - JPMorgan Operator Good morning and welcome to the Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation's First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instruc ...

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 ___________________________________________________________________ FORM 10-Q ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2024 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from _____ to _____ Commission File No. 001-35517 ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORPORATION (Exact name of R ...

Exhibit 99.1 ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORPORATION REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2024 RESULTS First quarter GAAP net income (loss) of $(12.3) million or $(0.23) per diluted common share and Distributable Earnings (Loss)(1) of $(33.5) million or $(0.62) per diluted common share - Subsequent to three months ended March 31, 2024 - Declared second quarter 2024 dividend of $0.25 per common share NEW YORK—(BUSINESS WIRE)—Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (the “Company”) (NYSE:ACRE), a specialty finance company en ...

Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2024. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released ...

Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images In our last coverage of Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE:ACRE) we gave it a "Sell" rating. What was unusual about our stance is that we did it in the face of a declining stock. Generally, we tend to move our ratings in the opposite direction of the stock price. As good news gets priced in and stocks move higher, we move from "Buy" to "Hold". Conversely, when stocks tank, we recognize that bad news is possibly getting priced in and move from "Sell ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment is challenging for commercial real estate, particularly for Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE), due to high exposure to struggling sectors like offices and multifamily properties, leading to credit quality concerns and a recent dividend cut [28]. Macroeconomic Factors - The expectation is for both interest rates and inflation to remain elevated, which could pressure credit quality and force the Federal Reserve to prioritize financial stability over combating inflation [2]. - Economic growth forecasts are in the 2-3% range, but credit quality is declining, indicating stress in the economy [4]. Commercial Real Estate Market - As of December, distressed US properties totaled nearly $86 billion, with offices making up 41% of this value. Potential distress across all property types is approximately $235 billion, with apartments accounting for over $67 billion [5][7]. - ACRE's portfolio is heavily weighted towards struggling sectors, with 39% in office debt and 26% in multifamily, totaling 65% exposure to these vulnerable areas [14]. Financial Performance - ACRE reported a net loss of $39.4 million in Q4 2023, translating to a loss of $0.73 per share, primarily due to a significant increase in the Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) provision of $47.5 million [16][18]. - The total CECL reserves reached $163 million by the end of 2023, representing 7.6% of the outstanding principal balance of loans held for investments, with 71% of this reserve allocated to office loans [18][21]. Dividend and Shareholder Value - ACRE cut its dividend by 24% to $0.25 per share per quarter, reflecting a shift towards preserving book value and liquidity amid economic challenges [24][25]. - The company generated $1.06 in distributable earnings per share in 2023, which is only slightly above the new annualized dividend, indicating a high payout ratio and potential for further cuts [25][26]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - ACRE trades at 62% of its book value, down from nearly 90% before recent debt issues, with a current consensus price target of $7.70, representing an 8% upside from the current price [26][27]. - The overall sentiment is cautious, with expectations of worsening credit quality in the coming quarters, leading to a Sell rating for ACRE [27][28].