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American Electric Power(AEP) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-06 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter 2025 operating earnings of $1.54 per share, totaling $823 million, which is a 20% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [9][24] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 operating earnings guidance range of $5.75 to $5.95 per share, with a long-term operating earnings growth rate of 6% to 8% [9][39] - GAAP earnings for the first quarter were $1.50 per share, down from $1.91 per share in 2024, primarily due to a charge related to the write-off of deferred costs [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Operating earnings for vertically integrated utilities were $0.66 per share, up $0.09 from the previous year, driven by favorable weather and rate changes [25] - The transmission and distribution utilities segment earned $0.36 per share, up $0.07 from last year, supported by rate changes and higher transmission revenue [25] - Generation and marketing produced $0.14 per share, up $0.02 from last year, with favorable retail and wholesale margins [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 12.3% growth in commercial load in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year [10] - Total retail load growth is expected to accelerate from 3% in 2024 to nearly 9% in 2025, marking the largest growth rate since the late 1960s [28] - The company anticipates annual retail load growth of between 8% to 9% through 2027, equating to approximately 52 million incremental megawatt hours [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to investing $54 billion over the next five years to meet the needs of 5.6 million customers across 11 states [5][9] - The capital plan includes customer commitments for over 20 gigawatts of incremental load by 2030, driven by data center demand and economic development [11][12] - The company is focused on reducing regulatory lag and enhancing customer affordability through proactive regulatory filings and legislative support [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's growth potential, citing significant demand for power and a robust pipeline of projects [16][20] - The company is well-positioned to participate in the electric infrastructure super cycle, with a focus on meeting increasing electric demand [16] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet to support capital spending needs and future growth opportunities [9][36] Other Important Information - The company has secured approximately 80% of its rate-related revenue for 2025, indicating strong regulatory support [16][17] - A significant equity issuance of $2.3 billion was completed to address anticipated equity needs through 2029 [22][36] - The company is actively engaged in legislative efforts to improve recovery and customer affordability [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How are conversations going in West Virginia regarding securitization? - Management reported positive discussions and is optimistic about achieving a favorable outcome in the upcoming hearings [42][44] Question: Are there any pullbacks from hyperscalers like Microsoft? - Management noted that despite Microsoft's delay, there is still robust demand from other customers, with over 500 existing and potential customers looking to connect to the system [46][48] Question: How does the company reconcile current sales trends against the 2025 forecast? - Management indicated that while near-term earnings impacts may be muted, the rapid addition of commercial and industrial load creates additional growth opportunities [52][54] Question: What is the impact of Ohio's new legislation on the company's regulatory strategy? - Management expressed that the new legislation supports capital investment growth and promotes timely recovery of investments, which is advantageous for the company [56][58] Question: How will the company finance the potential $10 billion upside in capital spending? - Management stated that they have already prefunded much of their equity needs and have various levers to pull, including potential asset sales and hybrid financing options [104][106]
American Electric Power(AEP) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-06 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter 2025 operating earnings of $1.54 per share, totaling $823 million, which is a 20% increase compared to the same period last year [8][22] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 operating earnings guidance range of $5.75 to $5.95 per share and a long-term operating earnings growth rate of 6% to 8% [8][38] - GAAP earnings for the first quarter were $1.50 per share, down from $1.91 per share in 2024, primarily due to a charge related to the write-off of previously deferred costs [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Operating earnings for vertically integrated utilities were $0.66 per share, up $0.09 from a year earlier, driven by favorable weather and rate changes [22] - The transmission and distribution utilities segment earned $0.36 per share, up $0.07 from last year, benefiting from rate changes and higher transmission revenue [22] - Generation and marketing produced $0.14 per share, up $0.02 from last year, with favorable retail and wholesale margins [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AEP's total retail load growth has been favorable, with commercial load growing 12.3% compared to the first quarter of last year [9] - The company expects to see annual retail load growth of between 8% to 9% through 2027, representing a significant increase in demand [27] - The company has over 500 existing and potential customers requesting to connect nearly 80 gigawatts of load to its transmission system [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to investing $54 billion over the next five years to meet the needs of 5.6 million customers across 11 states [5][8] - AEP is focusing on infrastructure investments to support increasing electric demand, including plans for new generation and transmission projects [10][12] - The company is actively managing regulatory strategies to ensure fair cost allocation and protect existing customers while attracting large loads [11][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's growth potential, citing significant economic development activities across its footprint [38] - The company is optimistic about achieving its 2025 commitments and maintaining a strong balance sheet to support capital spending needs [8][38] - Management highlighted the importance of regulatory developments and customer engagement in driving future growth [14][18] Other Important Information - The company has received commission approvals for large load tariffs in several states, indicating strong regulatory support for its growth initiatives [11] - AEP's first quarter earned ROE for rate-related businesses was 9.3%, up from 9.05% at year-end [15] - The company is focused on reducing regulatory lag and has made timely filings to support its financial and operational strategies [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: How are conversations going in West Virginia regarding securitization? - Management reported positive discussions and is optimistic about achieving a favorable outcome in the upcoming hearings [41][43] Question: Are there any pullbacks from hyperscalers like Microsoft? - Management noted that despite Microsoft's delay, there is still robust demand from other customers, and the overall system demand remains strong [45][46] Question: How do you reconcile current sales trends against the 2025 forecast? - Management indicated that while near-term earnings impacts may be muted, the rapid addition of commercial and industrial load creates additional growth opportunities [51][53] Question: What are the implications of shifting from ESPs to MYPs in Ohio? - Management highlighted that the new legislation supports capital investment growth and promotes timely recovery of investments, which is beneficial for the company [55][56] Question: What is the plan for financing the potential $10 billion upside? - Management stated that they have already secured equity needs through previous transactions and have various levers to pull for future financing [100][102]
American Electric Power(AEP) - 2025 Q1 - Quarterly Results
2025-05-06 11:04
Financial Performance - AEP reported first-quarter 2025 GAAP earnings of $800 million or $1.50 per share, down from $1,003 million or $1.91 per share in the same quarter of 2024[3][16] - Operating earnings for the first quarter of 2025 were $823 million or $1.54 per share, compared to $670 million or $1.27 per share in the first quarter of 2024, reflecting a 22.8% increase[3][16] - AEP's estimated GAAP earnings per share for 2025 is projected to be between $5.71 and $5.91, with adjustments for various impacts[26][28] - GAAP earnings for Q1 2025 were $800.2 million, translating to an EPS of $1.50, compared to $1.91 in Q1 2024[38] - Adjustments to GAAP earnings in Q1 2025 totaled $23.1 million, resulting in operating earnings of $823.3 million, or $1.54 per share[38] Sales Performance - Total retail electric sales increased by 3.5% year-over-year, reaching 23,934 million kWh in Q1 2025, up from 23,119 million kWh in Q1 2024[42] - Wholesale electric sales surged by 27.3% year-over-year, totaling 4,791 million kWh in Q1 2025, compared to 3,763 million kWh in Q1 2024[42] - Residential retail electric sales increased by 9.9% to 9,404 million kWh in Q1 2025, compared to 8,560 million kWh in Q1 2024[42] - The industrial retail electric sales decreased by 1.8% year-over-year, totaling 8,101 million kWh in Q1 2025, down from 8,252 million kWh in Q1 2024[42] - Total KWHs delivered by transmission and distribution utilities increased by 10.7% year-over-year, reaching 24,194 million kWh in Q1 2025[42] Capital and Investment - The company secured $2.3 billion through an equity offering completed in March 2025 to support its five-year, $54 billion capital growth plan[5][6] - AEP's capital plan includes $34 billion for distribution and transmission investments to support anticipated load growth, with projects totaling $1.7 billion approved by the PJM board[10][11] - The transmission business is expected to contribute 55% of operating earnings in 2025, with over 500 new and existing customers interested in connecting to the transmission system[11] - AEP's direct tariff exposure related to the $54 billion capital plan is minimal at approximately 0.3%[8] Regulatory and Policy Engagement - The company is actively working with regulators to achieve energy policy goals and has filed updated integrated resource plans in Arkansas and Indiana[13][15] - The impact of Ohio legislation contributed an additional $27.7 million to earnings in Q1 2025[38] Segment Performance - The vertically integrated utilities segment reported a GAAP loss of $324.1 million in Q1 2025, down from a profit of $560.8 million in Q1 2024[39] - The corporate segment reported a loss of $25.5 million in Q1 2025, compared to a loss of $54.3 million in Q1 2024[39] Guidance and Outlook - AEP reaffirmed its 2025 operating earnings guidance of $5.75 to $5.95 per share and a long-term growth rate of 6% to 8%[4][25] - Commercial load increased by 12.3% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, continuing a trend from the previous year[6][9]
American Electric Power(AEP) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-05-06 11:02
May 6, 2025 AEP First Quarter 2025 Earnings Presentation AEP CONFIDENTIAL Cautionary Note Regarding Forward- Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Words such as "expect," "anticipate," "intend," "plan," "believe," "will," "should," "could," "would," "project," "continue" and similar expressions, and include statements reflecting future results or guidance and statements of outlook are intended to identify forward-looking statements but are not the exclusive means of ident ...
3 Super-Safe Dividend Stocks to Buy That Have Been Impervious to the Stock Market Sell-Off So Far
The Motley Fool· 2025-05-03 09:45
Group 1: Coca-Cola (KO) - Coca-Cola stock is up over 16% in 2025, contrasting with a more than 5% decline in the S&P 500 index, indicating its status as a safe haven during market turbulence [3][6] - The stock offers a near 2.8% dividend yield and is relatively insulated from tariffs due to local production and minimal exposure to packaging material costs [4][6] - Coca-Cola's core beverage is considered a consumer staple, making it less vulnerable to economic downturns [5] Group 2: Waste Management (WM) - WM stock has increased over 13% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [7] - The company reported a 16.7% increase in revenue and a 12.2% growth in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025, largely due to the acquisition of Stericycle for $7.2 billion [8][9] - WM benefits from long-term contracts and a diverse customer base, providing insulation from economic fluctuations and trade tensions [10][11] - The company has consistently increased its dividend, with a 10% raise to $3.30 per share, and has reduced its share count by 11% over the last decade [12][13] Group 3: American Electric Power (AEP) - AEP stock has risen over 17% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500, which has declined more than 5% [14] - The company operates as a regulated utility, ensuring stable returns and predictable financial planning for capital expenditures, including $54 billion for infrastructure upgrades from 2025 to 2029 [16] - AEP has maintained an average payout ratio of 69% over the past five years, balancing shareholder value growth with necessary upgrades [17] - Currently, AEP is valued at 8.9 times operating cash flow, below its five-year average of 9.3, making it an attractive option for income investors [18]
American Electric Power to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?
ZACKS· 2025-05-02 14:25
Core Viewpoint - American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) is expected to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 6, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates indicating a year-over-year rise of 9.5% and sales growth of 6.7% [1][6]. Factors Impacting AEP's Q1 Earnings - Mixed weather patterns during the January-March 2025 quarter are likely to have a moderate impact on AEP's overall top line, with below-normal temperatures increasing electricity demand for heating, while above-normal temperatures may have reduced demand [2]. - Positive factors such as favorable rate revisions, strong transmission revenues, data center demand, and higher normalized retail sales due to economic development in AEP's operating states are expected to enhance top-line performance [3]. - Adverse weather events, including snowstorms and floods, may have caused outages and infrastructure damage, potentially increasing operating expenses and negatively impacting earnings [4]. - Despite challenges, benefits from prior investments, strong rate base growth, and solid sales growth expectations are likely to support overall earnings [5]. Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEP's sales is $5.34 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.7% [6]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $1.39 per share, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 9.5% [6]. Earnings Prediction Model - AEP has an Earnings ESP of +0.54%, indicating a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [7]. - Currently, AEP holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which suggests a stable position in the market [8].
Gear Up for AEP (AEP) Q1 Earnings: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics
ZACKS· 2025-05-01 14:20
Analysts on Wall Street project that American Electric Power (AEP) will announce quarterly earnings of $1.39 per share in its forthcoming report, representing an increase of 9.5% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $5.34 billion, increasing 6.7% from the same quarter last year.The current level reflects an upward revision of 13.4% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial ...
American Electric Power(AEP) - 2025 FY - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-29 20:40
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2024, the company reported operating earnings of $5.62 per share, continuing a trend of meeting or exceeding earnings per share guidance for over a decade [17] - The quarterly dividend was increased by $0.05 to $0.93 per share, with an operating earnings guidance range for 2025 set between $5.75 and $5.95 per share [17] - The company aims for a long-term operating earnings growth rate of 6% to 8%, combined with dividends to provide a potential total shareholder return of 10% to 12% [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company plans to invest over $34 billion in transmission and distribution infrastructure to create a resilient grid [17] - An additional $14 billion is allocated for new diverse generation resources to balance reliability and affordability [17] - Commercial load growth increased by 10.6% last year, driven by data centers and reshoring of manufacturing [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates an additional investment of up to $10 billion in infrastructure to support increased demand, driven by over 20 gigawatts of new load expected by the end of the decade [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building an energy system to support growing customer needs while emphasizing execution, accountability, and operational excellence [16] - The capital plan is seen as key to unlocking long-term value for shareholders, customers, and communities [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's future, highlighting the commitment of employees and the potential for significant achievements that benefit customers [19] - The company is working with regulators and large customers to ensure fair allocation of infrastructure costs [19] Other Important Information - The company has a historic five-year capital plan totaling $54 billion [17] - The independent registered public accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified for 2025, with approximately 99% of votes in favor [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Were there any questions submitted by shareholders? - No questions were received from shareholders during the meeting [22]
American Electric Power (AEP) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
ZACKS· 2025-04-29 15:07
Company Overview - American Electric Power (AEP) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings, with a projected EPS of $1.39, reflecting a change of +9.5% [3] - Revenues are anticipated to reach $5.34 billion, which is a 6.7% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for May 6, 2025, and the stock price may rise if actual results exceed expectations [2] - Conversely, if results fall short, the stock may decline [2] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 13.41% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a bullish sentiment among analysts [4] - AEP's Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +0.54% [10][11] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AEP met the expected EPS of $1.24, resulting in no surprise [12] - Over the past four quarters, AEP has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13] Industry Comparison - Southern Co. (SO), a competitor in the electric power industry, is expected to report an EPS of $1.20, showing a year-over-year change of +16.5% [17] - Southern Co.'s revenues are projected at $6.94 billion, up 4.4% from the previous year [17] - Southern Co. has an Earnings ESP of -0.08%, making it challenging to predict a beat on the consensus EPS estimate [18]
AEP Names Joseph Sauvage to Board of Directors
Prnewswire· 2025-04-29 14:00
COLUMBUS, Ohio, April 29, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Joseph G. Sauvage, retired vice chairman and chairman of Global Power, Utilities and Renewables of Citigroup, today was elected to the American Electric Power (Nasdaq: AEP) Board of Directors. Sauvage led Citigroup's Global Power, Utilities and Renewables practice for more than 16 years. Prior to joining Citigroup, he held various investment banking roles at Lehman Brothers, including vice chairman and global head of Power, Utilities and Renewables. Sauvage ser ...