Financial Performance - Alaska Air Group reported a total operating revenue of $3.137 billion for Q1 2025, a 41% increase compared to $2.232 billion in Q1 2024 [24] - The company generated an operating cash flow of $459 million in the first quarter [20] - The net loss for Q1 2025 was $166 million, or $1.35 per share, compared to a net loss of $132 million, or $1.05 per share, in Q1 2024 [20][24] Operational Highlights - Capacity (ASMs) increased by approximately 3.9% year-over-year, exceeding prior expectations [5][6] - Revenue passenger miles (RPMs) grew by 37.8% year-over-year, reaching 17.257 billion [30] - The load factor for the quarter was 81.3%, slightly down from 81.4% in the previous year [30] Cost and Efficiency - Unit costs increased by 2.1% year-over-year, which was in line with expectations [7] - Economic fuel cost per gallon was reported at $2.61, down 15.3% from $3.08 in Q1 2024 [30] - The adjusted pretax margin improved to (4.5)% from (7.0)% year-over-year [20][40] Strategic Initiatives - The Alaska Accelerate plan aims to deliver $1 billion in incremental profit by 2027, with initial progress reported [2][3] - The integration of Hawaiian Airlines is yielding synergies, with Hawaiian unit revenue increasing by 8.8% year-over-year [8] - The company ratified new collective bargaining agreements with flight attendants, enhancing employee engagement [20] Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates a revenue impact of approximately 6 points due to recent demand softness [9] - Despite economic uncertainties, the company expects to remain solidly profitable in 2025 [13] - Full-year guidance for 2025 will be updated later in the year as the company assesses various scenarios [13]

Core Viewpoint - Alaska Airlines has warned of a decline in earnings for the second quarter due to softer travel demand, reflecting a broader trend among airlines experiencing weaker-than-expected bookings [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Performance - The company forecasts a 6-percentage point headwind in unit revenue due to softer demand, expecting second-quarter unit revenue to be flat to down as much as 6% year-over-year [1]. - Adjusted per-share earnings are anticipated to be between $1.15 and $1.65, significantly lower than the $2.47 per share forecasted by Wall Street analysts [1]. - In the first quarter, Alaska Airlines reported a net loss of $166 million, an increase from a loss of $132 million a year ago, with revenue exceeding $3.1 billion, up 41% year-over-year but below analysts' expectations [3][5]. Group 2: Revenue and Market Conditions - The airline's unit revenue rose by 5% in the first quarter compared to the previous year, outperforming larger rivals in domestic unit sales [2]. - Despite the economic uncertainty, the company expects to remain profitable even if revenue faces pressure in the second half of the year [2]. - The CFO noted that while customers are still booking trips, they are doing so at lower-than-expected fares, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][3]. Group 3: Adjusted Loss and Analyst Expectations - Adjusting for one-time items, Alaska reported a loss of 77 cents per share for the three months ended March 31, which was below analysts' estimates of a 75 cents loss [4][5]. - Revenue for the first quarter was reported at $3.14 billion, slightly below the expected $3.17 billion [5].

Financial Performance - Alaska Air Group reported a total operating revenue of $3.137 billion for Q1 2025, a 41% increase compared to $2.232 billion in Q1 2024[22]. - The adjusted net loss for Q1 2025 was $95 million, or $0.77 per share, compared to a net loss of $116 million, or $0.92 per share, in Q1 2024[11]. - Total operating revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $3,137 million, a 9% increase from $2,877 million in the same period of 2024[45]. - Passenger revenue increased to $2,808 million, up 9% from $2,585 million year-over-year[45]. - The operating loss for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $197 million, a 39% improvement from a loss of $325 million in the same period of 2024[45]. - The company reported a net loss of $166 million in Q1 2025, compared to a net loss of $132 million in Q1 2024[26]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - The company generated operating cash flow of $459 million in Q1 2025 and held $2.5 billion in unrestricted cash and marketable securities as of March 31, 2025[15]. - Net cash provided by operating activities was $459 million in Q1 2025, compared to $292 million in Q1 2024, an increase of 57.1%[26]. - Adjusted net debt decreased to $3,812 million from $3,918 million as of December 31, 2024[39]. - The debt-to-capitalization ratio remained stable at 58% for both March 31, 2025, and December 31, 2024[39]. Capacity and Operations - Capacity (ASMs) increased by approximately 3.9% in Q1 2025, exceeding prior expectations of 2.5% to 3.5% growth[5]. - Revenue passengers increased by 34.6% to 13,159,000 in Q1 2025 from 9,774,000 in Q1 2024[31]. - Revenue passenger miles (RPMs) increased by 4.0% to 17,257 million from 16,597 million in the previous year[45]. - The load factor for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was 81.3%, slightly up from 81.2% in the same period of 2024[45]. Expenses and Cost Management - Total operating expenses increased to $3,334 million in Q1 2025, up from $2,398 million in Q1 2024, a rise of 39.1%[36]. - Total operating expenses rose to $3,334 million, a 4% increase compared to $3,202 million in the prior year[45]. - The company reported a 10% decrease in aircraft fuel expenses, totaling $681 million compared to $759 million in the prior year[45]. - Economic fuel cost per gallon decreased by 15.3% to $2.61 in Q1 2025 from $3.08 in Q1 2024[31]. Strategic Initiatives - Alaska Air Group aims to deliver $1 billion in incremental profit by 2027 as part of its Alaska Accelerate strategic plan[2]. - The integration of Hawaiian Airlines is showing strong initial progress, with Hawaiian unit revenue increasing by 8.8% year-over-year[9]. - The company ratified a three-year collective bargaining agreement with over 6,900 flight attendants, enhancing employee engagement and benefits[15]. Shareholder Actions - The company repurchased 1.8 million shares for approximately $107 million in Q1 2025, with year-to-date repurchases totaling $149 million[15]. - The average full-time equivalent employees (FTEs) increased by 29.4% to 29,773 in Q1 2025 from 23,013 in Q1 2024[31].

Core Insights - Alaska Air Group is expected to report a quarterly loss of 77 cents per share for the first quarter, an improvement from a loss of 92 cents per share a year ago [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $3.16 billion, up from $2.23 billion in the same quarter last year [1] Analyst Ratings - Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski maintained an Overweight rating but reduced the price target from $80 to $62 [7] - Susquehanna analyst Christopher Stathoulopoulos kept a Positive rating while cutting the price target from $95 to $55 [7] - UBS analyst Thomas Wadewitz downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and lowered the price target from $75 to $54 [7] - Citigroup analyst Stephen Trent maintained a Buy rating and adjusted the price target from $83 to $81 [7] - JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target from $85 to $89 [7] Stock Performance - Alaska Air Group shares increased by 2.9%, closing at $44.94 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 23, with a history of exceeding earnings estimates, averaging a surprise of 33.08% over the last four quarters [1][2]. Q1 Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 2025 indicates a loss of 72 cents per share, which is wider than the previous loss estimate of 55 cents, but represents a 21.7% improvement from the same period last year [4]. - Revenue expectations for Q1 2025 are pegged at $3.19 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 42.9% [4]. Earnings History - In the previous four quarters, ALK reported earnings of 0.97, 2.25, 2.55, and -0.92, with an average surprise of 33.08% [2]. Cost Factors - Labor costs are anticipated to rise significantly, with wages and benefits expected to increase by 64.9% compared to Q1 2024 [7]. - Conversely, lower fuel costs due to declining oil prices are likely to positively impact the bottom line, as fuel expenses are a major cost for airlines [8]. Market Sentiment - Economic uncertainties related to tariffs may have dampened domestic air travel demand, although international passenger revenues are expected to remain strong [6]. Earnings Prediction Model - Current analysis indicates that ALK does not have a strong likelihood of beating earnings estimates, with an Earnings ESP of -3.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [9]. Recent Performance - In Q4 2024, ALK reported earnings per share of 97 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents, and showing over 100% year-over-year improvement [10]. - Operating revenues for Q4 2024 reached $3.53 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.51 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 38.4% [11].

In its upcoming report, Alaska Air Group (ALK) is predicted by Wall Street analysts to post quarterly loss of $0.72 per share, reflecting an increase of 21.7% compared to the same period last year. Revenues are forecasted to be $3.19 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 42.9%.Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 13.9% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, leading to its current level. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their ini ...

Core Insights - Alaska Airlines is enhancing its inflight dining experience by continuing its partnership with acclaimed chef Brandon Jew, known for his Michelin-starred restaurant Mister Jiu's in San Francisco [2][3][4] - The airline is introducing a new plant-based meal option in collaboration with Evergreens™, aimed at providing a premium dining experience for all guests [9][10][11] Group 1: Partnership with Chef Brandon Jew - Alaska Airlines is expanding its First Class menu to include Chef Jew's dishes on additional routes, including flights from San Francisco to Boston, Washington D.C., and Orlando [4][6] - Chef Jew's new spring menu features culturally inspired dishes, such as Hong Kong French Toast and Tea-Smoked Soy Chicken, highlighting local ingredients [5][18] - The partnership aims to elevate inflight dining standards, with Alaska Airlines already receiving accolades for its culinary offerings [7] Group 2: Plant-Based Meal Introduction - Starting April 30, Alaska Airlines will offer a 100% plant-based and gluten-free dish called the Best Laid Plants grain bowl, featuring Chimichurri Tofu, avocado, and quinoa [9][10] - This new dish is designed to appeal to a wide range of tastes and is part of Alaska's commitment to providing diverse dining options [11] - The airline's pre-order program allows guests to choose from multiple chef-curated dishes, enhancing the overall dining experience [11]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Alaska Air Group (ALK) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues for the quarter ending March 2025, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on April 23, 2025, with a consensus estimate of a quarterly loss of $0.72 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +21.7%. Revenues are projected to be $3.19 billion, up 42.9% from the previous year [3][2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 13.93% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -3.40%. This indicates a challenging environment for Alaska Air to beat the consensus EPS estimate [10][11]. Historical Performance - Alaska Air has a history of exceeding consensus EPS estimates, having beaten expectations in the last four quarters, including a significant surprise of +106.38% in the most recent quarter [12][13]. Conclusion - Despite a strong historical performance, Alaska Air does not currently appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors before making investment decisions [16].

Alaska Air Group (ALK) shares ended the last trading session 22.6% higher at $50.27. The jump came on an impressive volume with a higher-than-average number of shares changing hands in the session. This compares to the stock's 23.6% loss over the past four weeks.The stock gained following President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on most of the sweeping tariffs that were recently crushing stocks.This airline is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.69 per share in its upcoming report, which re ...

The latest trading session saw Alaska Air Group (ALK) ending at $43.87, denoting a -1.3% adjustment from its last day's close. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.23%. At the same time, the Dow lost 0.91%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.1%.Shares of the airline have depreciated by 26.7% over the course of the past month, underperforming the Transportation sector's loss of 24.11% and the S&P 500's loss of 12.13%.Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Ala ...