Core Perspective - The company has experienced a confluence of secular and cyclical dynamics in the semiconductor capital equipment industry over the past five years, influenced by global onshoring initiatives and significant technological changes [2] Industry Dynamics - There has been a notable shift in the industry with advancements in technology, including gate-all-around logic and 3D memory structures, which are impacting market trends [2] - The company guided its October core revenue below market expectations during the recent earnings call, raising concerns among investors about a potential down cycle [2]

Applied Materials (NasdaqGS:AMAT) 2025 Conference September 09, 2025 01:50 PM ET Company ParticipantsGary Dickerson - President and CEOConference Call ParticipantsJim Schneider - Senior Equity AnalystJim SchneiderOkay, let's go. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Goldman Sachs Community Co-PA Technology Conference. My name is Jim Schneider. I'm a semiconductor analyst here at Goldman Sachs. It's my pleasure to welcome Applied Materials and CEO Gary Dickerson to the stage today. Welcome, Gary.Gary Dicke ...

Key Takeaways Applied Materials sees strong traction in etch systems and DRAM technologies for AI chips.AMD's new GPUs and ROCm software stack boost its role as a key AI infrastructure enabler.AMD's Data Center revenues jumped 14.3% in Q2 2025, driving 42.2% of total sales.Applied Materials (AMAT) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) operate at the core of the semiconductor ecosystem. While AMD designs these semiconductor chips, Applied Materials functions as a leading supplier of the equipment essential for ma ...

Core Insights - The revenue of the top five Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) manufacturers is projected to grow by 20% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, HBM, and advanced packaging, alongside investments from domestic Chinese customers in mature nodes [1][3] - Despite the overall growth, DRAM and NAND memory equipment sales lagged due to weak demand in consumer-driven markets, resulting in a 13% quarter-on-quarter decline in memory revenue [1] - The top WFE manufacturers, including ASML, Lam Research, and KLA, reported significant revenue growth of 35%, 29%, and 26% respectively, aided by double-digit growth in systems and services [1][3] Revenue Growth and Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, net revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with system revenue up by 22% and service revenue up by 20, driven by customer upgrades and automation [3] - The WFE market is expected to see a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in 2025, with the top five manufacturers outpacing the overall market due to key technological shifts in foundry/logical, DRAM, and NAND sectors [3][4] - The introduction of various tools in etching, deposition, lithography, and process control will support customer roadmaps in foundry/logical, memory, and NAND sectors, contributing to revenue growth in the latter half of 2025 [3][4] Diversification and Strategic Focus - WFE manufacturers are focusing on global business diversification to mitigate the impact of trade regulations and tariffs, ensuring facilities are close to customers and supply chains [5][6] - The growth of the semiconductor ecosystem in India is becoming strategically important, with over $10 billion announced for wafer fabs and OSAT, supported by government subsidies [6][10] - The shift towards advanced packaging is seen as a new growth engine for the semiconductor industry, with advanced packaging becoming a strategic driver for performance and cost optimization [8][10] Future Outlook - The ramp-up of OSAT and foundry tool deployments in India is expected to lead to a surge in tool shipments, benefiting equipment suppliers from high-value capital expenditures and long-term service contracts [9][10] - The long-term growth potential in India is highlighted, with the country positioned to offset long-term revenue declines from China, as multiple fabs and OSAT facilities are established [11]

Core Insights - Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems segment is experiencing strong demand, leading to record revenues in Q3 fiscal 2025 [1][8] - Revenues for the Semiconductor Systems reached $5.43 billion in Q3, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase [2][8] - The company anticipates a 50% increase in revenues from leading-edge DRAM customers in fiscal 2025 [3][8] - Long-term growth drivers include advancements in AI, advanced packaging, and power electronics [4] - Weaker guidance for Q4 2025 is attributed to capacity digestion in China and export license backlogs [4][8] Revenue and Growth Projections - The Semiconductor Systems segment's revenues are projected to grow significantly due to the transition to gate-all-around transistors, which could increase revenue opportunities by 30% per fab capacity [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates an 8.55% year-over-year growth for fiscal 2025 earnings [10] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Lam Research and ASML Holdings are also performing well in the DRAM and logic sectors, with Lam Research gaining traction through AI-related products [5] - ASML's revenue is driven by DRAM and logic customers, but it expects gross margin contraction due to low-margin tool revenue [6] Valuation Metrics - Applied Materials trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.32X, which is lower than the industry average of 8.81X [9] - Year-to-date, Applied Materials shares have declined by 2.7%, contrasting with a 19.1% growth in the Electronics - Semiconductors industry [7]

Group 1 - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined by over 2% [1] - Microchip Technology fell by more than 3.5% [1] - NXP Semiconductors and ON Semiconductor dropped nearly 3% [1] Group 2 - Micron Technology, ASML, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and Applied Materials all experienced declines of over 2% [1] - Broadcom and Intel both saw declines of over 1% [1]

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector in Japan and South Korea experienced a significant sell-off, with major companies like Advantest and SK Hynix seeing declines of over 9% and 5% respectively, influenced by a sell-off in US tech stocks [1][3] - Concerns about the future performance of AI chip companies arose after underwhelming earnings guidance from US chip giants, leading to fears of slowing growth in the AI chip market [1][3] - Nvidia's reliance on a small number of customers was highlighted, with nearly 40% of its second-quarter revenue for fiscal year 2026 coming from just two clients, raising questions about its dependency on these major customers [1][3][4] Group 2 - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 3%, with notable declines in companies like Marvell Technology and Oracle, further impacting investor sentiment towards AI chip stocks [3] - The overall valuation of the US stock market has reached unprecedented levels, with the S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio hitting 3.23, surpassing the peak during the dot-com bubble [7] - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of high valuations for tech giants, suggesting that fundamental performance will ultimately dictate stock prices [8]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in Japan and South Korea has experienced a significant sell-off, primarily influenced by the recent decline in U.S. tech stocks, raising concerns about the future performance of AI chip companies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the opening of the market, major chip manufacturers in Japan and South Korea saw substantial declines, with Advantest dropping over 9%, Hanmi Semiconductor down over 6%, SK Hynix falling over 5%, and Samsung Electronics decreasing over 3% [2]. - The overall market indices also suffered, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 1.24% and the KOSPI index declining by 1.35% [3]. Group 2: U.S. Market Influence - The sell-off in Japanese and Korean semiconductor stocks was largely attributed to a more than 3% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, with notable declines in companies like Marvell Technology (down over 18%) and Oracle (down 5.9%) [3]. - Concerns were raised regarding the future growth of AI chip companies due to disappointing earnings guidance from some U.S. chip giants [3]. Group 3: Nvidia's Client Dependency - Nvidia's recent disclosures indicated that nearly 40% of its revenue for the second fiscal quarter of 2026 came from just two clients, raising alarms about the company's reliance on a limited customer base [4]. - The two major clients contributed 23% and 16% to Nvidia's total revenue, significantly higher than the previous year's contributions of 14% and 11% [4]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Analysts have pointed out that the extreme volatility in U.S. AI chip stocks stems from previously inflated expectations and high valuations, leaving little room for error in earnings reports [5]. - The S&P 500 index's price-to-sales ratio has reached a historic high of 3.23, surpassing levels seen during the dot-com bubble, while the forward P/E ratio stands at 22.5, well above the long-term average of 16.8 since 2000 [6]. Group 5: Market Concentration - The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 now account for 39.5% of the index's total market capitalization, the highest recorded level, primarily driven by tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft [7]. - Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of these high valuations, with some market participants skeptical about whether fundamentals will support current price levels over time [7]. Group 6: AI Investment Bubble Warnings - Increasing warnings about an "AI investment bubble" have emerged, with industry leaders comparing the current situation to past investment failures, such as SoftBank's investments in WeWork and Zume [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment** industry, particularly the **Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** market, with significant emphasis on the impact of **China's semiconductor market** on global trends [2][17]. Key Forecasts and Adjustments - The WFE forecast for **2025** has been raised to **$114 billion**, reflecting a **6% year-over-year growth** from the previous estimate of **$111 billion** [2][17]. - The **2026 WFE** forecast is adjusted to **$120 billion**, a **5% increase** from the prior estimate of **$119 billion** [2][17]. - A new forecast for **2027** anticipates a **3% decline** in WFE, primarily due to normalization in China's advanced logic capital expenditures [2][17]. China Market Insights - China's WFE is expected to decline by **5%** in **2025** (previously forecasted at **-13%**) and remain flat in **2026**, but is projected to drop by **19%** in **2027** due to normalization of advanced logic capex [2][21]. - The **China foundry** segment is forecasted to remain flat year-over-year in **2025**, driven by an acceleration in capacity expansion post **DeepSeek** [3][17]. - The **DRAM** segment in China has been trimmed, with global DRAM WFE expected to grow by **6%** in **2025**, down from a previous estimate of **13%** [3][17]. Company-Specific Insights - **Applied Materials (AMAT)** and **Lam Research (LRCX)** are both rated as **Outperform** with price targets of **$195** and **$105**, respectively. Both companies are expected to benefit from leading-edge technology advancements [4][41]. - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)** is also rated **Outperform** with a price target of **¥29,400**, expected to gain market share and expand margins due to competitive pricing [9][60]. - **Kokusai** is rated **Outperform** with a price target of **¥3,570**, although there are concerns regarding the high revenue CAGR guidance of **22%** [10][60]. - **Screen** is rated **Market-Perform** with a price target of **¥12,000**, facing competitive pressures and declining revenue contributions from China [11][60]. - **Lasertec** is rated **Underperform** with a price target of **¥10,900**, anticipating a deceleration in revenue growth due to increased competition [12][60]. Investment Implications - The overall sentiment towards the **Japanese semiconductor equipment** companies is cautious due to short-term challenges in China, but long-term positions remain strong with attractive valuations [5][60]. - Local Chinese semiconductor capital equipment vendors like **NAURA**, **AMEC**, and **Piotech** are rated **Outperform** due to their increasing market share driven by domestic substitution [6][14][15][16]. Additional Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift with increased spending on **AI-related** technologies, which is expected to drive demand for advanced logic capacity in China [6][37]. - The overall WFE market is projected to grow, with a slight adjustment in expectations for non-China WFE growth, now estimated at **13%** for **2025** [26][32]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts discussed during the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the semiconductor capital equipment industry and the implications for various companies involved.

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in the US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping by 2.5% at the beginning of trading [1] Company Performance - Marvell Technology saw a sharp decline of over 16% [1] - Other companies such as Lam Research, Broadcom, and AMD experienced declines of over 3% [1] - Major players like NVIDIA, ARM, Applied Materials, and TSMC fell by more than 2% [1] - ASML and Micron Technology also reported declines of over 1% [1]