Core Insights - Aemetis, Inc. is set to increase its renewable natural gas (RNG) production by 80% to 550,000 MMBtu per year, starting January 1, 2025, benefiting from Production Tax Credits (PTCs) under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) [1][4]. Production and Tax Credits - The company has received IRS approval for Excise Tax Registration for Section 45Z PTCs, which incentivizes the production of low carbon intensity fuels [1][2]. - The 45Z PTC offers a tax credit of $1.00 per gallon for every 50 carbon intensity points reduction below a threshold of positive 50, with Aemetis expected to generate a tax credit of $8.50 per gallon equivalent for its dairy RNG with a negative carbon intensity of 380 [3][4]. Operational Expansion - Aemetis Biogas is expanding its operations with a total of twelve digesters processing waste from sixteen dairies, aiming for a production capacity of 550,000 MMBtu per year by 2025, up from the current 300,000 MMBtu [4]. - The dairies in the Aemetis Biogas Central Dairy Project are projected to produce over 1.6 million MMBtu per year, generating annual revenues of $250 million [6]. Financial Background - The company has previously sold $63 million in investment tax credits under the IRA, resulting in $55 million in cash proceeds after costs [5]. - The expansion of the dairy digesters is supported by $50 million in USDA guaranteed loans, with an additional $75 million currently in process [5].

Core Insights - Aemetis, Inc. has outlined a 5-year plan aiming for $2.0 billion in revenue and $644 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2028, compared to fiscal year 2023 revenue of $186.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $(22.4) million [3] - The company has shown strong revenue growth across all segments, with the Keyes Ethanol Plant generating $45.0 million from the production of 15.5 million gallons of ethanol [3] - Aemetis has made significant advancements in carbon sequestration, receiving approval for 20 years of Low Carbon Fuel Standard mandates from CARB, which is expected to boost revenue and earnings from U.S. projects [3] Financial Performance - Aemetis reported revenues of $81 million for the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a 19% increase compared to the third quarter of 2023 [5] - The company is on track to complete or have 10 additional dairy projects by fiscal year 2025 [5] Regulatory Developments - The approval of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard mandates by CARB is a key regulatory catalyst that is anticipated to support Aemetis's growth trajectory over the next 12 months [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2024 increased to $81.4 million from $68.7 million in Q3 2023, with gross profit rising to $3.9 million compared to $492,000 in the previous year [5][6][8] - Operating loss improved to $3.9 million in Q3 2024 from an operating loss of $8.5 million in Q3 2023 [6] - Net loss was $17.9 million for Q3 2024, a significant decline from net income of $30.7 million in Q3 2023, primarily due to the sale of investment tax credits in September 2023 [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Keyes plant generated $45 million in revenue with a production of 15.5 million gallons of ethanol [5] - The Dairy Renewable Natural Gas segment reported $4.2 million in revenue from the sale of 85,993 MMBtus and 935,000 RINs [5] - The India Biodiesel business recognized $32.2 million in revenue, mainly from sales to Indian oil marketing companies [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The price of Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits increased from $44 to $74 recently, with projections for late 2025 credits already at $82 [10][18] - Aemetis anticipates generating $20 million in revenues from renewable natural gas sales at a $100 average LCFS price next year, a significant increase from $3 million this year [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Aemetis is focused on expanding its renewable natural gas business, aiming to produce over 500,000 MMBtus per year by the end of 2025 [11][15] - The company is also working on a sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel plant with a capacity of 90 million gallons per year [30][31] - Aemetis plans to leverage public policy supporting renewable fuels, particularly in California, to enhance its market position [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future of LCFS credits, predicting prices could reach $220 by 2027 due to a deficit in available credits [36] - Concerns were raised regarding the timing of the 45Z production tax credit guidance from the IRS, which is crucial for the growth of the renewable natural gas business [41][19] - The company expects to see increased revenues and cash receipts from LCFS pathway approval starting in Q2 2025 [15] Other Important Information - Aemetis is finalizing the sale of investment tax credits with expected net cash proceeds of about $11.5 million [14] - The company has received a draft USDA conditional commitment approval for a $25 million loan and anticipates closing this funding soon [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on LCFS price recovery - Management believes the updated LCFS will help fund projects and predicts a potential price increase to $220 for credits by 2027 due to a deficit [36] Question: Risks to future tax credits under the ITC - Concerns were expressed about the timing of the 45Z production tax credit guidance, which may be delayed until after the new administration takes over [41] Question: Future capacity for RNG - Aemetis projects to exceed 550,000 MMBtus in 2025 and aims for 1 million MMBtus in 2026, with plans to accelerate construction of additional dairies [45] Question: Working capital needs for U.S. operations - The ethanol plant operates as a self-funding mechanism, while RNG expansion is expected to have minimal impact on overhead and working capital needs [46] Question: Timeline for India IPO - The timeline for the India IPO is dependent on market conditions, with expectations for acceleration in the process as new leadership is in place [47]

Revenue Performance - For the three months ended September 30, 2024, total revenues increased by 18.6% to $81.4 million compared to $68.7 million in the same period of 2023[130] - The California Ethanol segment reported revenues of $44.9 million, a decrease of 5.3% from $47.4 million in 2023, primarily due to a 20% reduction in the average sales price of ethanol[131] - The California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas segment saw a significant revenue increase of 283.9%, reaching $4.3 million compared to $1.1 million in 2023, driven by increased production and sales of renewable natural gas[131] - The India Biodiesel segment generated $32.3 million in revenues, a 60.1% increase from $20.1 million in 2023, attributed to higher sales volume of biodiesel[131] - Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, increased by 90.3% to $220.6 million compared to $116.0 million in the same period of 2023[144] - California Ethanol segment revenues rose by 104.5% to $121.2 million, driven by the operation of the Keyes Plant for a full nine months in 2024[144] - California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas segment revenues surged by 533.0% to $9.6 million, reflecting increased production and sales[144] Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost of goods sold for the total operations increased by 13.7% to $77.6 million, with the California Ethanol segment's costs decreasing by 8.3% to $44.8 million due to lower corn prices[134] - The gross profit for the total operations increased by 688.2% to $3.9 million, with the California Ethanol segment achieving a gross income of $0.1 million compared to a loss of $1.5 million in 2023[137] - The California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas segment reported a gross income of $1.9 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $0.8 million in the same period last year[137] - The India Biodiesel segment experienced a gross profit decrease of 31.6%, amounting to $1.9 million, primarily due to a 31% increase in feedstock costs[138] - Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, increased by 90.9% to $219.2 million compared to $114.8 million in 2023[147] - Gross profit for the California Ethanol segment decreased by 149.4% to a loss of $9.5 million, attributed to a 28% decrease in ethanol prices[152] Operational Developments - The company is actively expanding its biogas operations, with nine operating digesters and five more under construction, aiming to increase dairy waste processing capacity[124] - Planned sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel production plant is designed to produce 90 million gallons per year, with ongoing development activities including permitting and financing[126] - The Keyes Plant aims to enhance financial performance through new technologies and process changes, focusing on energy efficiency and cost reduction[164] - Dairy RNG production is expanding with new digesters and pipeline extensions, expecting full-year revenue from D3 RIN sales and LCFS credits in 2024, which will improve liquidity[165] - The Kakinada Plant plans to enter cost-plus contracts with OMCs and upgrade capacity, with positive gross income expected to continue[166] - The Riverbank SAF/RD production plan is in the engineering phase, seeking both debt and equity funding for development and construction[167] Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents were $296 thousand as of September 30, 2024, down from $2.67 million at December 31, 2023[160] - The current ratio decreased to 0.26 at September 30, 2024, compared to 0.43 at December 31, 2023[159] - As of September 30, 2024, the outstanding balance on Third Eye Capital Notes was $205.3 million, with maturity dates extending into 2026[169] - Net cash used in operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $20.4 million, with a net loss of $71.3 million[173] - Cash used in investing activities totaled $13.5 million for capital projects, offset by $3.0 million in grant proceeds[174] - Cash provided by financing activities was $27.8 million, primarily from common stock sales and borrowings[175] - Working capital changes included a $1.5 million increase in inventories and a $0.7 million decrease in accounts receivable[171] Management and Strategy - SG&A expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, decreased by 4.0% to $28.4 million compared to $29.6 million in 2023[157] - Interest expense increased by 20.6% to $29.1 million due to rising interest rates and new debt arrangements[157] - The company plans to pursue strategies to improve business performance amid reliance on senior secured lenders for debt management[163] - The company is implementing a remediation plan to address material weaknesses in internal controls over financial reporting[179]

Company Performance - Aemetis reported a quarterly loss of $0.38 per share, better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.47, and an improvement from a loss of $0.59 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of 19.15% [1] - The company posted revenues of $81.44 million for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.70%, compared to year-ago revenues of $68.69 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Aemetis has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once and topped consensus revenue estimates only once [2] Stock Outlook - Aemetis shares have declined approximately 31.5% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 25.8% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is -$0.42 on revenues of $92.72 million, and -$2.10 on revenues of $309.63 million for the current fiscal year [7] Industry Context - The Biofuels industry, to which Aemetis belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact Aemetis's stock performance [5] - The unfavorable trend in estimate revisions prior to the earnings release has resulted in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for Aemetis, suggesting expected underperformance in the near future [6]

Financial Performance - Aemetis reported revenues of $81.4 million for Q3 2024, a 19% increase compared to $68.7 million in Q3 2023[1][5] - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was $3.9 million, significantly up from $492 thousand in Q3 2023[6][19] - Operating loss narrowed to $3.9 million in Q3 2024 from an operating loss of $8.5 million in Q3 2023[7][19] - Net loss for Q3 2024 was $17.9 million, compared to a net income of $30.7 million in Q3 2023[9][19] - Total revenues for the first three quarters of 2024 reached $220.6 million, up from $116.0 million in the same period of 2023[10][19] - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended September 2024 was $1,459 thousand, a recovery from a loss of $4,886 thousand in the same period of 2023[21] - Net loss for the three months ended September 2024 was $17,935 thousand, compared to a net income of $30,711 thousand for the same period in 2023[21] Revenue Sources - The California Ethanol business generated $45.0 million in revenues, while the India Biodiesel business contributed $32.2 million, and the Dairy Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) business added $4.2 million[2][5] - Aemetis anticipates substantial revenue growth from its operating dairies and new dairies under construction upon receiving LCFS provisional pathway approvals and federal IRA 45Z production tax credits for RNG[3] - The approval of 20 years of Low Carbon Fuel Standard mandates is expected to enhance revenues and earnings across Aemetis' U.S. businesses[4] Production and Sales Metrics - Ethanol gallons sold increased to 15.5 million in the three months ended September 2024, up from 13.8 million in the same period of 2023, marking a growth of approximately 12.3%[22] - Dairy Renewable Natural Gas production increased to 86.6 thousand MMBtu in the three months ended September 2024, compared to 66.6 thousand MMBtu in the same period of 2023, an increase of approximately 30%[22] - Biodiesel metric tons sold rose to 26.0 thousand in the three months ended September 2024, up from 15.5 thousand in the same period of 2023, representing a growth of approximately 67.7%[22] Cost and Pricing - Average sales price per gallon of ethanol decreased to $2.12 in the three months ended September 2024 from $2.64 in the same period of 2023, a decline of about 19.7%[22] - The average delivered cost per bushel of corn decreased to $6.07 in the three months ended September 2024 from $7.48 in the same period of 2023, a reduction of about 18.9%[22] Capital Investments and Assets - Investments in capital projects for Q3 2024 amounted to $4.5 million, focusing on reducing carbon intensity and constructing dairy digesters[9] - Aemetis is actively expanding its biogas digester network and pipeline system to convert dairy waste gas into Renewable Natural Gas[16] - Total assets increased to $247,425 thousand in 2024 from $243,406 thousand in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 0.8%[20] - Current liabilities rose significantly to $132,242 thousand in 2024, up from $84,389 thousand in 2023, representing an increase of about 56.7%[20] - Stockholders' deficit increased to $(258,909) thousand in 2024 from $(216,977) thousand in 2023, reflecting a decline of approximately 19.3%[20]

Core Insights - Aemetis, Inc. has been recognized as the 7th Hottest Company in the Bioeconomy at the Advanced Bioeconomy Leadership Conference (ABLC) [1][2] - The recognition is based on votes from ABLC delegates, highlighting global innovation in sustainable fuels and chemicals [2] - Aemetis is focused on low and negative carbon intensity products, with significant progress reported in various business segments during 2024 [3][4] Company Developments - Aemetis has secured $50 million in USDA guaranteed financing and is in the process of obtaining an additional $100 million [3] - The company's biodiesel deliveries in India exceeded $100 million under a cost-plus contract with government-owned oil marketing companies [4] - The dairy renewable natural gas (RNG) business is projected to grow from 200,000 MMBtu to 550,000 MMBtu annual capacity by the end of 2024 [4] Technological Advancements - The Keyes ethanol plant has completed a $12 million solar and battery backup project and is designing a $22 million mechanical vapor recompression system to reduce carbon intensity by over 20% [5] - Aemetis is actively engaging with airline investors for project equity financing in its sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant [5] - The company has initiated the first phase of drilling for a carbon sequestration characterization well in California [5][7] Regulatory Support - Aemetis anticipates support from upcoming regulatory actions, including the reauthorization of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) in California, which could increase the value of LCFS credits from $60 to over $200 per metric ton [6] - The expected IRS guidance for the Inflation Reduction Act Section 45Z Production Tax Credit for RNG is projected to generate up to $100 million in new revenues annually by 2026 [6] Market Position - Founded in 2006, Aemetis is the largest producer of biodiesel in India and the largest ethanol producer in California [6] - The company is building a significant dairy biogas digester network in California, with plans for 16 digesters by the end of 2024 [6] - Aemetis has signed contracts with ten airlines for $3.8 billion of SAF supply and has received permits for an 80 million gallon per year SAF plant [7]

Core Insights - Aemetis, Inc. is set to begin biogas production of over 200,000 MMBtu per year by the end of 2024 through its multi-dairy anaerobic digester project in California [1] - The company currently generates approximately 300,000 MMBtu per year of renewable natural gas (RNG) and expects to increase this to about 550,000 MMBtu per year after the completion of new digesters [2] - Aemetis has signed agreements with 48 dairies and plans to add 27 more, aiming for over 1.6 million MMBtu per year of RNG and annual revenues of $250 million when fully operational [3] Company Overview - Aemetis is headquartered in Cupertino, California, and focuses on renewable natural gas, renewable fuels, and biochemicals, aiming to replace petroleum-based products and reduce greenhouse gas emissions [4] - The company operates a biogas digester network and pipeline system in California, converting dairy waste into RNG, and also has ethanol and biodiesel production facilities [4]

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q ☑ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2024 or ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission File Number: 001-36475 Aemetis, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware 26-1407544 (State or other jurisdicti ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q2 2024 was $66.6 million, up from $45.1 million in Q2 2023, attributed to full operation of key plants compared to maintenance in the prior year [8] - Gross loss for Q2 2024 was $1.8 million, a decline from a profit of $2 million in Q2 2023 [9] - Operating loss increased to $13.6 million in Q2 2024 from $8.7 million in Q2 2023 [9] - Net loss for Q2 2024 was $29.2 million, compared to a net loss of $25.3 million in Q2 2023 [10] - Cash at the end of Q2 2024 was $234,000, down from $2.7 million at the end of Q4 2023 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Dairy natural gas segment generated $1.6 million in revenue from 89,400 MMBtus produced [8] - India biodiesel business recognized $24.8 million in revenue, primarily from sales to Indian oil marketing companies [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates regulatory events in California to significantly boost demand for renewable fuels, with potential annual cash flow increases exceeding $50 million starting January 2025 [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Aemetis is executing a five-year plan focused on positive cash flow from operations and long-term lower interest rate debt financing [11] - The company is expanding its biogas and renewable diesel operations, with a focus on sustainable aviation fuel production [18] - Aemetis aims to position itself as a supplier of renewable natural gas and hydrogen, contributing to the transition to zero-emission vehicles [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving positive cash flow from all three operating businesses in Q3 2024 [15] - Regulatory approvals expected in late 2024 and early 2025 are anticipated to enhance product value and cash flow [14][15] - The company is optimistic about the ethanol market, expecting improved margins due to favorable crop conditions [29] Other Important Information - Aemetis has secured $50 million in USDA guaranteed loans for biogas projects and is pursuing additional funding [16] - The company is actively working on an IPO process, with expectations for completion in the first half of 2025 [61] Q&A Session Summary Question: What rate is needed to move carbon credit prices higher? - Management indicated that a minimum of 9% is required to incentivize major oil companies to purchase more credits, especially with the expected increase in credit bank numbers [25][26] Question: Are ethanol margins expected to improve? - Management confirmed an uptick in margins for July, with expectations for a favorable margin environment moving into the fall [28][29] Question: How many dairy digesters will be operational by year-end? - Management expects to have approximately 16 dairy digesters operational by year-end 2024, with nine currently operating and six under construction [30][31] Question: What is the timeline for the MVR project? - Management expressed high confidence in completing the MVR project by Q3 2025, with fabrication already underway [34][36] Question: What is the expected impact of the 45Z guidance on biogas? - Management explained that the 45Z production tax credit could significantly enhance the value of biogas, with calculations indicating potential earnings exceeding $50 million [54] Question: What is the profitability outlook for the India biodiesel segment? - Management noted that the India biodiesel business had a multimillion-dollar EBITDA quarter and expects continued growth [46][47] Question: What is the expected timing for the implementation of LCFS changes? - Management anticipates that if CARB votes on November 8, implementation may slip to July 2025 [51] Question: What is the status of the IPO process? - Management confirmed that they are actively working with investment banks and expect to provide updates on the IPO process in the near future [59][61]