Markets rarely operate in isolation, but few cross commodity relationships are direct as one between [music] the energy and the row crops. Around 40% of the US corn crop is used for ethanol [music] production, yielding roughly 15 billion gallons annually that are blended into the domestic gasoline supply under the renewable fuel standard. When gasoline prices rise, ethanol [music] blending economics approve and refiners compete more aggressively for corn, a dynamic that works its way directly into futures p ...

Markets rarely operate in isolation, but few cross commodity relationships are direct as one between [music] the energy and the row crops. Around 40% of the US corn crop is used for ethanol [music] production, yielding roughly 15 billion gallons annually that are blended into the domestic gasoline supply under the renewable fuel standard. When gasoline prices rise, ethanol [music] blending economics approve and refiners compete more aggressively for corn, a dynamic that works its way directly into futures p ...

Look, nobody's calling for a blow-off top here. But the combination of reduced production potential, cost-driven acreage discipline, and resilient demand gives the bulls a real edge heading into the critical planting and growing window. If weather throws even a modest scare into the mix, those $4.90–$5.00 July futures levels start looking pretty reasonable. The short-term fundamentals aren't bearish anymore—they're quietly turning constructive.Demand, meanwhile, isn't rolling over. Ethanol plants are hummin ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently surged, with NY sugar reaching a 5.5-month high, influenced by a 4% increase in crude oil prices, which may lead to higher ethanol production and reduced sugar output [1] - Supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have impacted approximately 6% of the global sugar trade, further constraining refined sugar output [2] Supply and Production Forecasts - Analysts predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26, indicating ongoing concerns about a global sugar surplus [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.22 MMT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, with a projected 3.0% year-on-year rise in global sugar production to 181.3 million MMT [4] - Brazil's sugar production has shown signs of decline, with a reported 36% year-on-year decrease in the second half of January, although cumulative output for 2025-26 has increased by 0.9% year-on-year [5] Regional Production Updates - India's sugar output for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise by 12% year-on-year to 29.3 MMT, although this is below earlier estimates, with a reduction in sugar allocated for ethanol production potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [6]

Core Insights - REX American Resources reported record ethanol sales volume for fiscal 2025, with 290 million gallons sold, slightly up from 289.7 million gallons in fiscal 2024 [2][4][7] - The company characterized fiscal 2025 as "exceptional" and "transformative," highlighting strong export demand and a solid balance sheet with no bank debt [3][5] - The fourth quarter saw a significant increase in net income attributable to shareholders, reaching $43.7 million compared to $11.1 million in the previous year [12][13] Financial Performance - Gross profit for fiscal 2025 was $93.7 million, an increase from $91.5 million in fiscal 2024, with fourth-quarter gross profit rising to $28.9 million from $17.6 million [9] - SG&A expenses increased to $32.6 million in fiscal 2025 from $27.1 million in fiscal 2024, with fourth-quarter SG&A rising to about $12.3 million from $6.2 million [10] - Net income attributable to REX shareholders for fiscal 2025 was $83.0 million, up from $58.2 million in fiscal 2024, with diluted EPS reaching an all-time high of $2.50 [12][13] Co-Product Performance - Dried distillers grains (DDGs) sales volume decreased by 3% to 612,000 tons in fiscal 2025, with fourth-quarter volume declining about 9% year over year [1] - Modified distillers grains volume increased to 81,900 tons in fiscal 2025 from about 70,000 tons in fiscal 2024, with an average selling price of approximately $65.82 per ton [7] - Corn oil sales increased to approximately 97.0 million pounds in fiscal 2025, up from 88.1 million pounds in fiscal 2024, with an average selling price of $0.54 per pound [8] Expansion and Initiatives - The One Earth Energy expansion project is nearing completion, expected to reach 200 million gallons annual capacity by fiscal 2026 [6][15] - The carbon capture facility is complete but awaiting permits for the Class VI well and pipeline, with the company engaged with regulatory bodies [16][17] - REX has invested approximately $166 million in carbon capture and ethanol expansion projects, remaining within its budget of $220 million to $230 million [18] Market Environment and Outlook - The company anticipates a profitable start to fiscal 2026, supported by strong exports and the benefits from the 45Z tax credit [5][19] - Management noted that U.S. ethanol export volumes reached record levels in 2025, with continued strength into 2026 [20] - Favorable corn supplies are expected to support manageable input costs and healthy crush margins [21]

REX American Resources Corporation Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary - Moby Strategic Performance and Operational Drivers Achieved record fiscal 2025 EPS and net income, attributed to strong export demand, favorable commodity pricing, and high operational efficiency. Recognized $28,000,000 in 45Z tax credits for the full fiscal year 2025 as regulatory clarity improved, significantly boosting fourth-quarter net income. Maintained 22 consecutive quarters of profitability by leveraging market expertise to ...

Price Movements - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant increase, with NY world sugar 11 rising by +2.25% to reach a 5.5-month high, while London ICE white sugar 5 is up by +1.67% [1] - The surge in sugar prices is correlated with a +4% increase in crude oil prices, which is expected to boost ethanol prices and potentially lead sugar mills to increase ethanol production while reducing sugar output [1] Supply Disruptions - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted approximately 6% of the world's sugar trade, which is constraining refined sugar output [2] Global Sugar Surplus Projections - Analysts predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a +1.22 MMT sugar surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, with a projected global production rise of +3.0% year-on-year to 181.3 million MMT [4] Regional Production Insights - Brazil's sugar production in the Center-South region fell by -36% year-on-year in the second half of January, although cumulative output for 2025-26 through January increased by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.24 MMT [5] - India's sugar output for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise by +12% year-on-year to 29.3 MMT, with a reduction in the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fiscal 2025 was marked by record ethanol sales volume of 290 million gallons, a slight increase from 289.7 million gallons in fiscal 2024, with fourth quarter sales at 70.1 million gallons compared to 74.6 million gallons in Q4 2024 [10] - Average selling price for consolidated ethanol volumes was approximately $1.74 per gallon for the full year and $1.72 for Q4 [10] - Gross profit for fiscal 2025 was $93.7 million, up from $91.5 million in fiscal 2024, with Q4 gross profit at $28.9 million compared to $17.6 million in Q4 2024 [12][14] - Net income attributable to REX shareholders for fiscal 2025 was $83 million, compared to $58.2 million in fiscal 2024, with Q4 net income at $43.7 million versus $11.1 million in Q4 2024 [14][15] - Diluted net income per share reached an all-time high of $2.50 for fiscal 2025, compared to $1.65 in fiscal 2024, with Q4 diluted net income per share at $1.32 compared to $0.31 in Q4 2024 [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Dried distillers grains sales volumes decreased by 3% to 612,000 tons in fiscal 2025 from 632,000 tons in fiscal 2024, with Q4 volumes down approximately 9% [11] - Modified distillers grains sales volumes increased to 81,900 tons in fiscal 2025 from approximately 70,000 tons in fiscal 2024, with Q4 volumes up approximately 1% [11] - Corn oil sales volumes increased by approximately 10% to 97 million pounds in fiscal 2025 from 88.1 million pounds in fiscal 2024, with Q4 sales volumes at approximately 25.2 million pounds, a 7% increase [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ethanol export demand remained strong, with U.S. exports reaching record levels in 2025, supported by favorable market conditions and high oil prices [18][32] - The company expects continued strong export demand into 2026, driven by global demand for lower carbon fuel and increased fuel blending [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding capacity at the One Earth Energy facility to 200 million gallons per year, with completion expected in fiscal 2026 [7][17] - The implementation of the 45Z tax credit is anticipated to positively impact results, with the company positioned to capitalize on this program [5][8] - The company is committed to sustainability through carbon capture and sequestration initiatives, awaiting permitting for related projects [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to build on momentum from fiscal 2025, citing expanded capacity and favorable market conditions as key growth drivers [6][17] - The company has delivered 22 consecutive quarters of profitability, with expectations for continued strong performance in fiscal 2026 [17] - Management highlighted the importance of operational excellence and teamwork in navigating market challenges [4][6] Other Important Information - The company ended fiscal 2025 with total cash equivalents and short-term investments of $375.8 million, compared to $359.1 million at the end of fiscal 2024, with no bank debt [15][16] - SG&A expenses increased to $32.6 million for fiscal 2025 from $27.1 million in fiscal 2024, primarily due to increased incentive bonuses [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the 45Z tax credits, is the $28 million for Q4 or a catch-up for previous periods? - The $28 million represents the full fiscal year of 2025, and the company remains optimistic about claiming these credits through 2029 [22][23] Question: How will the carbon capture project impact the CI score? - The company has not disclosed specific improvements to the CI score but expects significant benefits from the carbon capture project [25][27] Question: What is the status of the Class VI injection permit? - The permitting process has moved to September, but the company is in the final stages of technical review with the EPA [29][31] Question: How are tariffs impacting operations for ethanol and corn oil? - There has been no negative impact from tariffs on ethanol exports, and high oil prices are expected to benefit the business [32][35] Question: What are the prospects for nationwide E15? - While nationwide E15 would be beneficial, the company does not expect it to happen due to the influence of oil companies, but anticipates more independent retailers adopting E15 [49][50]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fiscal 2025 was an exceptional year for REX American Resources, with record earnings per share (EPS) of $2.50, up from $1.65 in fiscal 2024, marking a significant increase [16] - Net income attributable to REX shareholders for the year was $83 million, compared to $58.2 million in fiscal year 2024 [15] - Gross profit for fiscal year 2025 was $93.7 million, an increase from approximately $91.5 million in fiscal year 2024 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ethanol sales volumes reached 290 million gallons in fiscal year 2025, a slight increase from 289.7 million gallons in fiscal year 2024 [10] - Dried distillers grains sales volumes decreased by 3% to 612,000 tons in fiscal 2025 from 632,000 tons in fiscal 2024 [11] - Corn oil sales volumes increased by approximately 10% to 97 million pounds in fiscal year 2025, compared to 88.1 million pounds in fiscal year 2024 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ethanol export demand remained strong, with U.S. exports reaching record levels in 2025, supported by favorable market conditions [19] - The company expects continued strong performance in 2026, driven by expanded production capacity and favorable market tailwinds [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding capacity at the One Earth Energy facility, which is nearing completion and will increase annual production capacity to 200 million gallons [5] - REX is actively pursuing carbon capture and sequestration initiatives to enhance sustainability and long-term value creation [5] - The strategic focus remains on profit, position, and policy, with an emphasis on operational excellence and market expertise [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to build on momentum from fiscal 2025, citing strong financial foundations and favorable market conditions [6] - The 45Z tax credit program is expected to provide meaningful benefits, with management optimistic about continued eligibility for these credits [24][25] - The company anticipates another year of strong performance in 2026, supported by expanded production capacity and favorable corn supply [20] Other Important Information - The company ended fiscal year 2025 with total cash equivalents and short-term investments of $375.8 million, compared to $359.1 million at the end of fiscal year 2024 [17] - REX American Resources reported no bank debt at the end of the fiscal year, providing financial flexibility for future growth [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the 45Z tax credits, is the $28 million for Q4 or a catch-up for previous periods? - The $28 million represents the full fiscal year of 2025, and the company remains optimistic about claiming these credits in future years [24] Question: How will the carbon capture project impact the CI score? - The company has not disclosed specific improvements to the CI score but indicated that it would be significant [26][28] Question: What is the status of the Class VI injection permit? - The permitting process has moved to September, but the company is in the final stages of technical review with the EPA [30][32] Question: How are tariffs impacting operations for ethanol and corn oil? - There has been no negative impact from tariffs on ethanol exports, and the company is experiencing strong export demand [33][34] Question: What are the prospects for nationwide E15? - While nationwide E15 would be beneficial, management does not expect it to happen due to the influence of oil companies, but anticipates more independent retailers adopting E15 [50]

Core Viewpoint - REX American Resources Corporation reported its financial and operational results for the full year and fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting its interests in six ethanol production facilities [1]. Financial Performance - The results for Q4 and the full fiscal year 2025 are primarily influenced by the performance of the One Earth Energy and NuGen Energy ethanol production facilities, which are consolidated [1].