Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Apollo Global Management stated that certain manufacturing jobs could potentially return to the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a broader trend of reshoring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. [1] - The CEO emphasized the importance of domestic production capabilities in the current economic climate [1] - This move could lead to increased job opportunities and economic growth within the manufacturing sector [1]

阿波罗全球管理公司首席执行官：美国正在丧失"超级例外主义"。 ...

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Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top forecasters warn that tariffs may trigger an economic recession, yet the stock market appears largely unaffected by these warnings [1][2]. Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% chance of recession within the next 12 months, while Apollo Global Management's chief economist places it at 90% [2]. - The S&P 500 index recently completed its longest nine-day rally since 2004, rising approximately 10% and recovering from a significant drop following President Trump's tariff announcement [2]. - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index is down only 3.1%, indicating limited investor concern about future economic conditions [2]. Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Despite ongoing uncertainties, consumer confidence has not significantly changed, although potential risks remain [4]. - Economists suggest that even low tariff levels could have a cascading effect on the U.S. economy, impacting consumer spending, business investment, and employment [4]. - A recent report indicated that inflation-adjusted household spending surged by 0.7% in March, exceeding expectations, possibly driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [4]. - Visa reported no signs of overall weakness in credit card spending as of April 21 [4]. Market Sentiment and Interest Rates - Raymond James' chief investment officer emphasizes the importance of monitoring credit card data as a potential warning signal for economic conditions [5]. - Goldman Sachs economists believe the impact of tariffs may take two to three months to reflect in inflation data, predicting a slowdown in consumer spending soon [5]. - Vanguard has lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for the year to below 1%, citing tariffs and policy uncertainties, and expects inflation to reach 4% by year-end [5]. Stock Market Dynamics - While overall stock performance is strong, there are underlying concerns, with a few large tech companies driving the rebound [6]. - Defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities are performing well, while economically sensitive sectors such as energy and discretionary spending lag behind [6]. - Interest rate futures traders are now confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least three times this year, with a 63% chance of recession predicted by market bettors, up from 40% in March [6]. - The excess CAPE yield, a measure of risk compensation for holding stocks over bonds, was only 1.8% at the end of April, about half of its 50-year average [6].

Core Insights - Apollo Global Management Inc. reported a revenue of $978 million for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a 16.6% increase year-over-year and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $961.36 million by 1.73% [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $1.82, slightly lower than the consensus estimate of $1.85, resulting in an EPS surprise of -1.62% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total Assets Under Management reached $785 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $778.74 billion from three analysts [4] - Fee-related earnings from management fees amounted to $770 million, surpassing the average estimate of $757.41 million based on six analysts [4] - Capital solutions fees and other net income were reported at $154 million, above the estimated $148.44 million [4] - Alternative net investment income in Retirement Services was $315 million, exceeding the average estimate of $298.04 million [4] - Realized investment income in Principal Investing was $28 million, higher than the estimated $23.02 million [4] - Realized performance fees in Principal Investing were $190 million, below the average estimate of $265.64 million [4] - Fixed income and other net investment income in Retirement Services was $2.91 billion, slightly below the estimate of $2.94 billion [4] - Strategic capital management fees in Retirement Services were $29 million, slightly above the average estimate of $28.22 million [4] - Principal Investing Income was reported at $14 million, significantly lower than the estimated $76.89 million [4] - Spread Related Earnings in Retirement Services totaled $804 million, below the average estimate of $821.74 million [4] - Overall Fee Related Earnings in Asset Management were $559 million, slightly above the average estimate of $553.30 million [4] Stock Performance - Apollo Global Management's shares have returned +11.7% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.5% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Apollo Global Management, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2025 Results May 2, 2025 Apollo Global Management, Inc. has also declared and set aside for payment a cash dividend of $0.8438 per share of its Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, which will be paid on July 31, 2025 to holders of record at the close of business on July 15, 2025. The declaration and payment of dividends on the Common Stock and the Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock are at the sole discretion of Apollo Global Management, Inc.'s board ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated record fee-related earnings (FRE) of $559 million, representing a 21% increase year over year [6][44] - Spread-related earnings (SRE) excluding notable items were $826 million, with adjusted net income of $1.1 billion or $1.82 per share [5][45] - Assets under management (AUM) increased by 17% year over year to $785 billion, with record inflows of $43 billion in the quarter [6][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The credit business showed strong performance with origination of $56 billion, a nearly 30% growth year over year [31] - Private equity fund performance was highlighted, with Fund 10 achieving a net IRR of 19%, significantly outperforming industry peers [15] - In retirement services, the company raised $26 billion in the first quarter, driven by strong demand for guaranteed income products [18][38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a tightening of BBB corporate spreads below 100 basis points, a level not seen since 1998 [12] - The equity market saw significant concentration, with 10 stocks in the S&P 500 accounting for 40% of the index [11] - The company experienced increased competition in retail sales of fixed annuities, despite tighter spreads [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasized a focus on origination as a source of excess return, willing to reduce leverage and wait for favorable market conditions [8][10] - The strategy includes a pivot towards private assets, with expectations of increased demand from traditional asset managers [22][24] - The company is actively pursuing partnerships with traditional asset managers to integrate private assets into their offerings [88][90] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management described the current market as volatile but expressed confidence in the company's positioning and ability to navigate challenges [27][41] - The outlook for the company remains positive, with expectations of continued strong performance in capital formation and asset origination [34][40] - Management acknowledged potential headwinds from competitive pressures and interest rate changes but remains focused on long-term growth [47][60] Other Important Information - The company announced the acquisition of Bridge Investment Group for approximately $1.5 billion, expected to enhance its real estate capabilities [49] - The company has $64 billion of dry powder available for investment, positioning it well for future opportunities [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you break down the lower SRE and the conditions that could make you less conservative? - Management explained that they underwrite based on spread and ROE, with a focus on maintaining a mid-teens ROE. They are currently prioritizing cash and lower-risk assets to prepare for wider spreads in the future [55][61] Question: How are flows in the AAA channel and the durability of April flows? - Management reported strong momentum in the wealth channel, with AAA flows remaining stable and a positive outlook for the rest of the year [67][68] Question: What is the outlook for institutional demand amid market volatility? - Management expressed optimism about institutional demand, noting that they have historically under-earned their fair share and see significant opportunities for growth [72][78] Question: How does the company view the potential backlash from foreign LPs reducing allocations to U.S. markets? - Management acknowledged the risk but emphasized that the U.S. capital markets remain essential for global funding needs, suggesting that Apollo is well-positioned to navigate these dynamics [102][104]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated record fee-related earnings (FRE) of $559 million, representing a 21% increase year over year [6][7] - Spread-related earnings (SRE) excluding notable items were $826 million, with adjusted net income at $1.1 billion or $1.82 per share [6][7] - Assets Under Management (AUM) increased by 17% year over year to $785 billion, with record inflows of $43 billion in the quarter [7][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The asset management segment saw FRE growth driven by an 18% increase in management fees, particularly strong in credit, which grew by 23% [44] - Origination activity reached $56 billion, a nearly 30% growth year over year, with significant contributions from diversified channels [31][34] - Athene's net invested assets grew by 15% year over year, driven by record organic inflows across various channels [46][38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a tightening of BBB corporate spreads below 100 basis points, a level not seen since 1998, indicating a highly competitive market environment [12][13] - The retail channel for fixed annuities experienced increased competition, with tighter spreads leading to a strategic focus on less competitive channels [18][19] - The company raised $26 billion in the first quarter and an additional $10 billion in April, investing in safer assets like cash and treasuries [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a focus on origination as a source of excess return, with a willingness to reduce leverage and wait for favorable market conditions [9][11] - The strategy includes leveraging partnerships with traditional asset managers to integrate private assets into their offerings, anticipating a significant demand for private investments [86][90] - The company is positioned to capitalize on market volatility, with a strong pipeline of proprietary origination and a focus on maintaining a balance between capital growth and origination capacity [78][88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management described the current market as one of "hyper U.S. exceptionalism," with significant global capital flowing into U.S. markets [11][12] - The outlook includes expectations for continued strong demand for guaranteed income products due to an aging population and higher interest rates [17][20] - Management remains cautious about the competitive landscape and potential headwinds from rising costs and market volatility, but is optimistic about the company's positioning and origination capabilities [21][48] Other Important Information - The company announced the acquisition of Bridge Investment Group for approximately $1.5 billion, expected to enhance its real estate business [49] - The company is focused on maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation, returning $1.7 billion to shareholders over the past year through dividends and share repurchases [49] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you break down the lower SRE and the conditions that could make you less conservative? - Management explained that they underwrite based on spread and ROE, with a focus on maintaining a mid-teens ROE. They are cautious due to competitive pressures and rising costs, but see potential for wider spreads in the future [55][61] Question: How are flows in the wealth channel, particularly AAA? - Management reported strong momentum in the wealth channel, with significant growth in inflows and a positive outlook for the remainder of the year [67][70] Question: What is the outlook for institutional demand amidst market volatility? - Management expressed optimism about institutional demand, noting that they have historically under-earned their fair share and see opportunities for growth in this area [73][78] Question: How does the company view the impact of foreign LPs reducing allocations to private markets? - Management acknowledged the potential risk but emphasized that the company's diversified business mix provides insulation against such dynamics [101][102]