Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the "long context," investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even ...

Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) has seen a significant stock price increase of 50.1% over the past four weeks, closing at $14.02, with analysts suggesting a potential upside of 28.4% based on a mean price target of $18 [1]. Price Targets - The average price target for ARMN ranges from a low of $15.48 to a high of $22.32, with a standard deviation of $3.01, indicating variability in analyst estimates [2]. - The lowest estimate suggests a 10.4% increase from the current price, while the highest estimate indicates a potential upside of 59.2% [2]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have shown increasing optimism regarding ARMN's earnings prospects, with a strong consensus on higher EPS estimates, which historically correlates with stock price movements [4][11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has risen by 16.1% over the past month, with no negative revisions reported [12]. Zacks Rank - ARMN holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, suggesting a strong potential for upside in the near term [13]. Conclusion on Price Targets - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of the exact price movement, it does provide a directional guide for potential stock performance [14].

Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation has successfully reached a Settlement and Termination Agreement with the Republic of Colombia, concluding an arbitration process initiated under the Canada-Colombia Free Trade Agreement, marking a significant collaborative achievement in resolving investor-state disputes [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Settlement Agreement - The Settlement Agreement will be effective for a ten-year term and will be monitored by a Joint Representatives Committee from both Aris Mining and the National Agency for Legal Defense of the State (ANDJE) to ensure proper implementation [4]. - The arbitration has been terminated without any cash payments, focusing instead on performance obligations through three "Pillar Agreements" [6]. Pillar Agreements - The three Pillar Agreements include: 1. Agreement for Mining Formalization and Sustainable Territorial Development in the Marmato area with the Ministry of Mines and Energy and the National Mining Agency 2. Collaboration and Cooperation Agreement with the National Police 3. Collaboration Agreement with the Ministry of Defense [6]. Operational Overview - Aris Mining operates two underground gold mines in Colombia, the Segovia Operations and the Marmato Complex, which produced 210,955 ounces of gold in 2024. The company aims to increase annual production to over 500,000 ounces through ongoing expansions [7]. - In Guyana, Aris Mining owns the Toroparu gold project, with a new Preliminary Economic Assessment completed and a Prefeasibility Study in progress [8]. - The company also holds a 51% interest in the Soto Norte joint venture, which has completed a Prefeasibility Study confirming its potential as a high-grade, long-life project [9].

Core Insights - The stock market experienced a sell-off at the beginning of the week, with Nvidia's earnings release anticipated on Wednesday. Despite this pullback, the Nasdaq has risen 45% since early April and 17% in 2025. Investors may consider taking profits even if Nvidia posts strong guidance, potentially shifting focus to value stocks instead [1]. Group 1: Value Stock Screening - The screening process aims to identify top value stocks using Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buys) or 2 (Buys) and focuses on stocks with price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios below the industry median [4][9]. - The screening also considers quarterly earnings rates above the industry median and utilizes a blend of upgrades and estimate revisions to select the best stocks [5]. Group 2: Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) has seen its stock price increase by 360% over the past two years, outperforming its sector's 14%, the S&P 500's 50%, and the gold mining industry's 166%. Despite this growth, it trades 44% below its average Zacks price target at under $12 per share [6][12]. - The company operates two underground mines in Colombia, producing 210,955 ounces of gold in 2024, with plans to expand production to over 500,000 ounces annually [10]. - Aris Mining's revenue is projected to grow by 73% in 2025, increasing from $511 million to $1.37 billion, while adjusted EPS is expected to rise by 262% in 2025 [11]. - The gold mining industry is currently benefiting from high demand, with Aris Mining trading at a 50% discount to its industry and a 30% discount to its own historical highs [12].

Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) shows a significantly improving earnings outlook, making it a solid investment choice as analysts continue to raise their earnings estimates for the company [1][3]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts' optimism regarding Aris Mining's earnings prospects is leading to higher estimates, which is expected to positively impact the stock price [2]. - The consensus earnings estimate for the current quarter is $0.53 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +278.6%. This estimate has risen by 75% over the last 30 days, with no negative revisions [7]. - For the full year, the earnings estimate is projected at $1.23 per share, indicating a change of +261.8% from the previous year. The consensus estimate has increased by 16.13% due to one upward revision and no negative changes [8][9]. Zacks Rank - Aris Mining Corporation currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), which is based on favorable estimate revisions. This ranking is associated with a strong historical performance, with Zacks 1 stocks averaging a +25% annual return since 2008 [3][10]. - The Zacks Rank system is designed to help investors leverage earnings estimate revisions for better investment decisions [10]. Stock Performance - The stock has appreciated by 10.7% over the past four weeks due to strong estimate revisions, suggesting potential for further upside [11].

Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) shows potential for significant upside, with a mean price target of $16.29 indicating a 51.3% increase from the current price of $10.77 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Consensus - The average price target for ARMN ranges from a low of $13.68 to a high of $17.64, with a standard deviation of $1.8, suggesting a relatively tight clustering of estimates [2] - The lowest estimate indicates a 27% increase, while the highest suggests a 63.8% upside [2] - Analysts' price targets should be approached with caution, as they may not always accurately reflect future stock movements [3][10] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Agreement - There is strong agreement among analysts regarding ARMN's ability to report better earnings, which supports the potential for stock price appreciation [4] - Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARMN's current year earnings has increased by 16.1%, with no negative revisions [12] - ARMN holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] Implications of Price Movement - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of the magnitude of ARMN's potential gains, it does provide a directional guide for price movement [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gold production in Q3 totaled 73,236 ounces, a 25% increase over Q2, bringing total production for the first nine months of 2025 to 187,000 ounces, tracking the midpoint of full-year guidance of 230,000 to 270,000 ounces [2][3] - Gold revenue for Q3 was $253 million, up 27% over Q2, with adjusted EBITDA of $131 million for Q3 and over $350 million on a trailing twelve-month basis [3][6] - Cash balance at the end of Q3 was $418 million, an increase from $310 million in Q2, reflecting strong cash flow and proceeds from warrant exercises [6][8] - Adjusted net earnings reached $72 million or $0.36 per share, with a 36% increase in AISC margin compared to Q2 [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Segovia produced 65,500 ounces of gold in Q3, with an all-in sustaining cost margin of $121.5 million, a 39% increase compared to Q2 [10][11] - Marmato's bulk mining zone construction is progressing, with significant milestones achieved and first gold pour expected in the second half of 2026 [4][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is benefiting from rising gold prices, which have positively impacted revenue and margins [6][8] - The all-in sustaining cost for owner mining was $1,452 per ounce in Q3, trending towards the lower end of the company's full-year guidance [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to advance the Toroparu project to a pre-feasibility study over the next ten months and is also progressing the permitting process for Soto Norte [4][24] - The strategy focuses on becoming a significant gold producer by leveraging growth projects beyond Segovia and Marmato [4][29] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational performance and the ability to fund growth plans, with a strong position to deliver exceptional growth in annual gold production [3][29] - The company is committed to building on its operational and financial momentum, positioning itself for a successful 2026 and beyond [29] Other Important Information - The company completed a pre-feasibility study for Soto Norte, confirming it as one of the most attractive gold projects in the Americas, with a focus on responsible development [4][24] - The estimated cost to complete the Marmato project is $250 million, with $82 million funded by the Wheaton streaming agreement [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Segovia plant expansion - Management confirmed that the Segovia plant is currently running at about 2,500 to 2,600 tonnes per day, with expectations to reach 3,000 tonnes per day early next year [32][33] Question: Development sequencing of Toroparu and Soto Norte - Management indicated that Toroparu's pre-feasibility study will be completed in about ten months, while Soto Norte's permitting process will take about eighteen months, suggesting a sequential development approach [35][36] Question: CapEx for Marmato bulk mining zone - Management noted that a sharp increase in capital spending is expected as construction progresses, with contracts signed and mobilization of contractors underway [39]

Q3 2025 Financial Highlights - Gold revenue reached $253 million, a 27% increase from Q2 2025[16] - Adjusted EBITDA was $131 million[12, 16] - Adjusted earnings per share reached $036[16] - Cash balance increased to $418 million, up from $310 million at the end of Q2 2025[12, 16] Operational Performance - Total gold production was 73,236 ounces[12, 21] - Segovia operations produced 65,549 ounces of gold[21] - Segovia's total AISC margin was $1215 million, up 39% from Q2 2025[21] - Contract Mining Partners (CMP) AISC sales margin at Segovia was 44%[21] Project Updates - Marmato Bulk Mining Zone construction is underway, with first gold pour expected in H2 2026[12, 31] - Soto Norte Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) completed, outlining average annual production of 263,000 ounces of gold (100% basis) during years 2-10, and 203,000 ounces over the life of mine, at an AISC of $534/oz[12, 43, 64] - Toroparu Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) shows potential for average annual gold production of 235,000 ounces over a 213-year mine life, with an AISC of $1,289/oz[12, 58]

Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached $258,115, an increase of 91.6% compared to $134,723 in Q3 2024[4] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $42,009, compared to a net loss of $2,227 in Q3 2024, marking a significant turnaround[6] - The company reported a comprehensive income of $89,710 for Q3 2025, compared to a loss of $10,677 in Q3 2024[6] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, net income was $28,278, compared to $2,743 for the same period in 2024, indicating a significant improvement[10] - The company reported a comprehensive income of $134,802 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a loss of $54,503 in the same period of 2024[8] - The company reported a segment net income of $42.0 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a loss of $2.2 million in the same period of 2024[20] - Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $258.1 million, a 91.7% increase from $134.7 million in the same period of 2024[85] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $2,396,660 as of September 30, 2025, up from $1,994,504 at the end of 2024, representing a growth of 20.2%[3] - Total liabilities increased to $978,258 as of September 30, 2025, from $911,397 at the end of 2024, a rise of 7.3%[3] - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, were $2.4 billion, an increase from $2.0 billion as of December 31, 2024[21] - Total liabilities as of September 30, 2025, were $978.3 million, compared to $911.4 million as of December 31, 2024, reflecting an increase of 7.3%[21] - The company’s total financial liabilities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, amounted to $85.5 million, compared to $26.7 million in 2024, indicating a significant increase in financial obligations[90] Cash and Cash Equivalents - Cash and cash equivalents rose to $417,881 in Q3 2025, compared to $252,535 in Q3 2024, reflecting a 65.3% increase[3] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $417,881, significantly higher than $80,304 at the end of September 30, 2024[10] Debt Management - The current portion of long-term debt decreased to $53,310 in Q3 2025 from $22,132 in Q3 2024, indicating improved debt management[3] - Long-term debt decreased slightly from $516.2 million as of December 31, 2024 to $513.3 million as of September 30, 2025[39] - The principal amount of the 2029 Senior Notes was $450 million, with a carrying value of $450.6 million as of September 30, 2025[43] Equity and Shareholder Value - The company’s equity attributable to owners increased to $1,127,015 in Q3 2025, up from $798,571 in Q4 2024, reflecting a growth of 41.2%[3] - Total equity attributable to owners at September 30, 2025, was $1,127,015, compared to $808,862 at the end of September 30, 2024, showing growth in shareholder value[8] Operational Performance - Income from mining operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $274,716, up from $93,133 in the same period of 2024, a growth of 194.5%[4] - Operating cash flows before taxes for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $294,791, up from $55,355 in 2024, reflecting a strong operational performance[10] - Production costs for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $103.6 million, up 32.2% from $78.4 million in 2024[88] Investments and Acquisitions - The company increased its interest in the Soto Norte Project from 20% to 51% on June 28, 2024, enhancing its operational control in Colombia[13] - The company acquired an additional 31% interest in the Soto Norte Project, increasing its ownership to 51%, with a total consideration of $295.4 million allocated based on fair value[22] - The company reported a loss of $3.2 million on the sale of the Juby Project to McFarlane Lake Mining Limited, with total consideration of $20.8 million[29] Employee Compensation - Share-based compensation for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $21,417, compared to $5,748 in 2024, indicating increased employee incentives[10] - Total share-based compensation expense for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was C$9,497, compared to C$2,533 for the same period in 2024[65] Financial Risks and Commitments - The company is exposed to risks associated with fluctuations in commodity prices and foreign currency exchange rates, and may enter into risk management contracts to mitigate these risks[72] - The company’s total undiscounted commitments, including interest and premiums, were $926.0 million as of September 30, 2025[79] - The company had no outstanding commodity hedging contracts in place as of September 30, 2025[84] Other Financial Metrics - The company recognized a total cost of inventories of $266.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $218.4 million in the same period of 2024, marking an increase of 21.9%[27] - The company recognized capitalized interest of $27.3 million for the period ended September 30, 2025, compared to $22.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2024[37] - The company recognized an accretion expense of $1.522 million related to provisions for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[49]

Core Insights - The production ramp-up at Segovia is driving record financial results for Aris Mining, with a cash balance of $418 million and significant growth in revenue, cash flow, and adjusted earnings [2][3][6] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $253.5 million, a 27% increase from Q2 2025 and a 93% increase from Q3 2024, attributed to higher gold prices and increased sales volumes [3][6] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $131.1 million, up 33% from Q2 2025 and triple that of Q3 2024, with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $352.0 million [3][6] - Adjusted net earnings were $71.8 million or $0.36 per share, an increase from $0.27 per share in Q2 2025 and $0.08 per share in Q3 2024 [3][6] - Cash balance increased to $417.9 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $310.2 million at June 30, 2025, primarily due to cash flow after sustaining capital and income taxes [3][6] Operational Performance - Total gold production in Q3 2025 was 73,236 ounces, a 25% increase from Q2 2025, with Segovia operations producing 65,549 ounces [7][8] - The average realized gold price was $3,494 per ounce sold, compared to $3,303 in Q2 2025 and $2,457 in Q3 2024 [5][7] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) margin increased to $121.5 million, up 39% from Q2 2025, with an AISC of $1,641 per ounce sold [7][8] Project Development Highlights - The Marmato Bulk Mining Zone construction is on schedule for first gold in the second half of 2026, with significant progress in development and construction activities [6][8] - The Soto Norte Prefeasibility Study completed in September 2025 shows robust economics with an after-tax NPV of $2.7 billion and an IRR of 35% [8][19] - The Toroparu Project's Preliminary Economic Assessment completed in October 2025 indicates an after-tax NPV of $1.8 billion and an IRR of 25.2% [8][19] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Operations generated $90.8 million in cash flow after sustaining capital and income taxes in Q3 2025, fully funding growth initiatives [6][8] - Total expansion and growth capital expenditures in Q3 2025 were $48.1 million, with significant investments in the Marmato Bulk Mining Zone and Segovia Operations [6][8]