Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) shows potential for significant upside, with a mean price target of $16.29 indicating a 51.3% increase from the current price of $10.77 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Consensus - The average price target for ARMN ranges from a low of $13.68 to a high of $17.64, with a standard deviation of $1.8, suggesting a relatively tight clustering of estimates [2] - The lowest estimate indicates a 27% increase, while the highest suggests a 63.8% upside [2] - Analysts' price targets should be approached with caution, as they may not always accurately reflect future stock movements [3][10] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Agreement - There is strong agreement among analysts regarding ARMN's ability to report better earnings, which supports the potential for stock price appreciation [4] - Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARMN's current year earnings has increased by 16.1%, with no negative revisions [12] - ARMN holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] Implications of Price Movement - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of the magnitude of ARMN's potential gains, it does provide a directional guide for price movement [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gold production in Q3 totaled 73,236 ounces, a 25% increase over Q2, bringing total production for the first nine months of 2025 to 187,000 ounces, tracking the midpoint of full-year guidance of 230,000 to 270,000 ounces [2][3] - Gold revenue for Q3 was $253 million, up 27% over Q2, with adjusted EBITDA of $131 million for Q3 and over $350 million on a trailing twelve-month basis [3][6] - Cash balance at the end of Q3 was $418 million, an increase from $310 million in Q2, reflecting strong cash flow and proceeds from warrant exercises [6][8] - Adjusted net earnings reached $72 million or $0.36 per share, with a 36% increase in AISC margin compared to Q2 [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Segovia produced 65,500 ounces of gold in Q3, with an all-in sustaining cost margin of $121.5 million, a 39% increase compared to Q2 [10][11] - Marmato's bulk mining zone construction is progressing, with significant milestones achieved and first gold pour expected in the second half of 2026 [4][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is benefiting from rising gold prices, which have positively impacted revenue and margins [6][8] - The all-in sustaining cost for owner mining was $1,452 per ounce in Q3, trending towards the lower end of the company's full-year guidance [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to advance the Toroparu project to a pre-feasibility study over the next ten months and is also progressing the permitting process for Soto Norte [4][24] - The strategy focuses on becoming a significant gold producer by leveraging growth projects beyond Segovia and Marmato [4][29] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational performance and the ability to fund growth plans, with a strong position to deliver exceptional growth in annual gold production [3][29] - The company is committed to building on its operational and financial momentum, positioning itself for a successful 2026 and beyond [29] Other Important Information - The company completed a pre-feasibility study for Soto Norte, confirming it as one of the most attractive gold projects in the Americas, with a focus on responsible development [4][24] - The estimated cost to complete the Marmato project is $250 million, with $82 million funded by the Wheaton streaming agreement [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Segovia plant expansion - Management confirmed that the Segovia plant is currently running at about 2,500 to 2,600 tonnes per day, with expectations to reach 3,000 tonnes per day early next year [32][33] Question: Development sequencing of Toroparu and Soto Norte - Management indicated that Toroparu's pre-feasibility study will be completed in about ten months, while Soto Norte's permitting process will take about eighteen months, suggesting a sequential development approach [35][36] Question: CapEx for Marmato bulk mining zone - Management noted that a sharp increase in capital spending is expected as construction progresses, with contracts signed and mobilization of contractors underway [39]

Q3 2025 Financial Highlights - Gold revenue reached $253 million, a 27% increase from Q2 2025[16] - Adjusted EBITDA was $131 million[12, 16] - Adjusted earnings per share reached $036[16] - Cash balance increased to $418 million, up from $310 million at the end of Q2 2025[12, 16] Operational Performance - Total gold production was 73,236 ounces[12, 21] - Segovia operations produced 65,549 ounces of gold[21] - Segovia's total AISC margin was $1215 million, up 39% from Q2 2025[21] - Contract Mining Partners (CMP) AISC sales margin at Segovia was 44%[21] Project Updates - Marmato Bulk Mining Zone construction is underway, with first gold pour expected in H2 2026[12, 31] - Soto Norte Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) completed, outlining average annual production of 263,000 ounces of gold (100% basis) during years 2-10, and 203,000 ounces over the life of mine, at an AISC of $534/oz[12, 43, 64] - Toroparu Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) shows potential for average annual gold production of 235,000 ounces over a 213-year mine life, with an AISC of $1,289/oz[12, 58]

Core Insights - The production ramp-up at Segovia is driving record financial results for Aris Mining, with a cash balance of $418 million and significant growth in revenue, cash flow, and adjusted earnings [2][3][6] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $253.5 million, a 27% increase from Q2 2025 and a 93% increase from Q3 2024, attributed to higher gold prices and increased sales volumes [3][6] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $131.1 million, up 33% from Q2 2025 and triple that of Q3 2024, with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $352.0 million [3][6] - Adjusted net earnings were $71.8 million or $0.36 per share, an increase from $0.27 per share in Q2 2025 and $0.08 per share in Q3 2024 [3][6] - Cash balance increased to $417.9 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $310.2 million at June 30, 2025, primarily due to cash flow after sustaining capital and income taxes [3][6] Operational Performance - Total gold production in Q3 2025 was 73,236 ounces, a 25% increase from Q2 2025, with Segovia operations producing 65,549 ounces [7][8] - The average realized gold price was $3,494 per ounce sold, compared to $3,303 in Q2 2025 and $2,457 in Q3 2024 [5][7] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) margin increased to $121.5 million, up 39% from Q2 2025, with an AISC of $1,641 per ounce sold [7][8] Project Development Highlights - The Marmato Bulk Mining Zone construction is on schedule for first gold in the second half of 2026, with significant progress in development and construction activities [6][8] - The Soto Norte Prefeasibility Study completed in September 2025 shows robust economics with an after-tax NPV of $2.7 billion and an IRR of 35% [8][19] - The Toroparu Project's Preliminary Economic Assessment completed in October 2025 indicates an after-tax NPV of $1.8 billion and an IRR of 25.2% [8][19] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Operations generated $90.8 million in cash flow after sustaining capital and income taxes in Q3 2025, fully funding growth initiatives [6][8] - Total expansion and growth capital expenditures in Q3 2025 were $48.1 million, with significant investments in the Marmato Bulk Mining Zone and Segovia Operations [6][8]

Core Insights - Aris Mining Corporation announced positive results from the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) of its Toroparu Gold Project in Guyana, confirming it as a large-scale, long-life open pit gold project with a 21.3-year mine life and an after-tax NPV5% of $1.8 billion at a gold price of $3,000/oz [1][2][16]. Project Overview - The Toroparu Gold Project has measured and indicated mineral resources of 126.9 million tonnes at an average grade of 1.30 g/t Au, containing 5.3 million ounces of gold, and inferred resources of 22.9 million tonnes at 1.6 g/t Au, containing 1.2 million ounces of gold [5][23]. - The project is designed as a conventional truck-and-shovel open pit operation with a strip ratio of 4.7 to 1 and a mill capacity of 7.0 million tonnes per annum [5][6]. Economic Metrics - The PEA indicates an average annual gold production of 235,000 ounces, with life-of-mine cash costs of $826/oz and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,289/oz [5][21]. - The project is expected to generate total payable gold sales of $14.7 billion over its life, with an initial construction capital requirement of $820 million [5][16]. Financial Projections - The after-tax IRR is projected at 25.2%, with a payback period of 3.0 years from the start of operations [16][22]. - At a gold price of $3,600/oz, the NPV5% increases to $2.7 billion, with an IRR of 32.6% [16][22]. Development Strategy - Aris Mining has initiated a Prefeasibility Study (PFS) for Toroparu, targeted for completion in 2026, to advance the project toward construction [2][16]. - The project benefits from a large pre-production stockpile of approximately 6.1 million tonnes, which will support a smooth start-up and consistent throughput [10]. Industry Context - Guyana's mining sector is rapidly advancing, with the Toroparu project positioned as a significant development alongside the Oko West project, highlighting the country's potential as a new frontier for large-scale gold mining [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation is set to release its Q3 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025, followed by a conference call on October 30, 2025, to discuss these results [1][2]. Company Overview - Aris Mining was founded in September 2022 with a focus on becoming a leading gold mining company in Latin America, emphasizing production, cash flow generation, and transformational growth through asset expansions and exploration [4]. - The company operates two underground gold mines in Colombia, the Segovia Operations and the Marmato Complex, which produced a total of 210,955 ounces of gold in 2024 [5]. - Aris Mining aims to increase its annual production rate to over 500,000 ounces of gold, supported by the commissioning of a second mill at Segovia and the construction of the Bulk Mining Zone at Marmato [5]. Growth Strategy - The company is pursuing partnerships with Colombia's small-scale mining sector to promote safe and environmentally responsible operations that benefit local communities [6]. - Aris Mining is also focused on acquisitions and other growth opportunities to enhance value through scale and diversification [7]. Project Developments - The Soto Norte joint venture, in which Aris Mining holds a 51% stake, has completed a Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) confirming its potential as a high-quality, long-life project with strong economics [5]. - In Guyana, the company is advancing the Toroparu gold/copper project, with a new Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) currently underway [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the author's recent encounters with Aris Mining (NYSE: ARMN, ARIS.CA) and Aura Minerals (AUGO), suggesting a potential interest in these companies within the mining sector [1]. Company Analysis - Aris Mining is mentioned as a company of interest, indicating that it may present investment opportunities [1]. - Aura Minerals is also referenced, suggesting a comparative analysis or potential relationship with Aris Mining [1]. Industry Context - The author reflects on over 30 years of experience analyzing various industries, including mining, which provides a strong foundation for understanding market dynamics and investment opportunities [1]. - The article implies that the mining sector, like others, is influenced by macroeconomic factors and crises, which could affect investment strategies [1].

Core Insights - Aris Mining Corporation has completed the sale of its Juby Gold Project in Ontario, Canada, to McFarlane Lake Mining Limited for a total consideration of US$22 million, which includes US$13.2 million in cash and 82,023,746 common shares of McFarlane [1][2] Company Strategy - The sale aligns with Aris Mining's strategy to focus on high-growth gold operations and development projects in Colombia and Guyana [2] - The company aims to unlock value through scale and diversification, blending current production with transformational growth [3] Production and Operations - Aris Mining operates two underground gold mines in Colombia, the Segovia Operations and the Marmato Complex, which produced 210,955 ounces of gold in 2024 [4] - The company targets an annual production rate of over 500,000 ounces of gold, with expansions underway at both Segovia and Marmato [4] - Aris Mining also operates a 51% owned joint venture, Soto Norte, which has a completed PFS study confirming its robust economics [4] Future Projects - In Guyana, Aris Mining owns the Toroparu gold/copper project, where a new Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) is currently underway [4] - The company is actively pursuing partnerships with Colombia's small-scale mining sector to enable safe and environmentally responsible operations [5]

Core Points - Aris Mining Corporation has successfully brought all 23 workers to the surface following the La Reliquia Mine shaft collapse [1] Company Summary - The incident occurred at the La Reliquia Mine, and all workers who were underground at the time have been accounted for and safely evacuated [1]

Core Points - Aris Mining Corporation confirmed an incident at the La Reliquia Mine on September 22, 2025 [1] - The La Reliquia Mine is a third-party operation located within Aris Mining's Segovia title but outside of the company's infrastructure [1]