Key Takeaways Aris Mining's Q2 gold sales rose 23% year over year to 61,024 ounces, the highest since Q4 2023.Segovia led with a 24% volume increase, boosting gold revenues 75% to $200.2 million.Expanded Segovia mill ramp-up is expected to sustain sales momentum into the second half.Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) delivered higher year-over-year gold sales volumes in the second quarter, fueling a notable rise in gold revenues and earnings from mining operations. ARMN’s gold sales jumped roughly 23% year over ...

Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) has experienced a 9.2% decline in share price over the past week, but the formation of a hammer chart pattern suggests a potential trend reversal as buying interest may be emerging to counteract selling pressure [1][2]. Group 1: Technical Analysis - The hammer chart pattern indicates a possible bottoming out of the stock, with reduced selling pressure and a potential shift in control from bears to bulls [2][5]. - A hammer pattern forms when there is a small candle body with a long lower wick, signaling that despite a downtrend, buying interest has emerged to push the stock price up towards the opening price [4][5]. - The effectiveness of the hammer pattern as a bullish indicator is enhanced when used alongside other bullish indicators, as its strength is dependent on its placement on the chart [6]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates for ARMN, with a 6.3% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, suggest that analysts expect better earnings than previously predicted [7][8]. - ARMN holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, indicating strong potential for outperformance in the market [9][10]. - The Zacks Rank serves as a reliable timing indicator for investors, suggesting that ARMN's prospects are beginning to improve, further supporting the case for a trend reversal [10].

Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation is experiencing share price volatility due to Mubadala Investment Company's sale of its entire stake, comprising 15.75 million common shares, to institutional investors through a block trade [1][2][3] Company Overview - Aris Mining was founded in September 2022 with a focus on becoming a leading gold mining company in Latin America, aiming for value creation through production, cash flow generation, and growth via asset expansions and exploration [4] - The company operates two underground gold mines in Colombia, the Segovia Operations and the Marmato Complex, which produced 210,955 ounces of gold in 2024 [5] Recent Developments - The shares held by Mubadala became free trading in late June 2025, following a one-year hold period after the Soto Norte transaction, which has led to a more diversified shareholder base [3] - The completion of the block trade and the expiry of exchange-traded warrants have removed significant overhangs for the company [3] Future Plans - Aris Mining is advancing the Pre-Feasibility Study for the Soto Norte project, with results expected in September 2025 [3] - The company is targeting an annual production rate of over 500,000 ounces of gold, with expansions at Segovia and the Marmato Complex expected to ramp up production in H2 2025 and H2 2026, respectively [5] - A new Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the Toroparu gold/copper project in Guyana is also underway, with results anticipated in Q3 2025 [5] Strategic Partnerships - Aris Mining is actively pursuing partnerships with Colombia's small-scale mining sector to promote safe, legal, and environmentally responsible operations that benefit local communities [6]

Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) has experienced a significant share price increase of 70.1% over the past six months, outperforming both the Zacks Mining – Gold industry and the S&P 500, driven by rising gold prices and strong operational performance [1]. Group 1: Price Performance and Market Position - ARMN's shares have outperformed peers such as B2Gold Corp. (BTG) and AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU), which gained 39% and 70.8% respectively during the same period [1]. - The stock has surpassed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and is trading above the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend following a golden crossover [3]. Group 2: Production and Expansion - Aris Mining reported a 20% year-over-year increase in gold production, reaching 58,652 ounces in Q2 2025, with expectations to meet a full-year target of 230,000-275,000 ounces [8][10]. - The Segovia Operations in Colombia are central to ARMN's production growth, with a planned capacity increase of 50% to 3,000 tons per day, targeting 300,000 ounces output by 2026 [10][11]. Group 3: Financial Health and Valuation - ARMN has a strong balance sheet with a cash balance of approximately $310 million and generated $73.8 million in cash flow in Q2 2025, supporting its expansion initiatives [14]. - The stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 4X, which is about 70.3% lower than the industry average of 13.46X, making it an attractive investment opportunity [15]. Group 4: Earnings Estimates and Growth Prospects - Earnings estimates for ARMN have been revised upward, with projected year-over-year increases of 264.7% for 2025 and 73.8% for 2026 [18]. - The company is advancing key development projects, including the Segovia mill expansion, which are expected to enhance production and drive performance amid rising gold prices [19].

Core Insights - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) reported a 20% year-over-year increase in gold production to 58,652 ounces for Q2 2025, with a 7% rise from the previous quarter, primarily driven by Segovia Operations in Colombia [1][8] - The Segovia Operations saw an 18% year-over-year production increase to 51,527 ounces, while the Marmato Upper Mine produced 7,125 ounces, marking a 29% increase from a year ago [2] - Production rates are expected to increase in the second half of 2025 due to the completion of the Segovia plant expansion, which will boost processing capacity by 50% to 3,000 tons per day [3] - Segovia is projected to produce between 210,000-250,000 ounces in 2025 and 300,000 ounces in 2026, positioning ARMN favorably in the Latin American gold mining sector [4] Industry Comparisons - B2Gold Corp. (BTG) reported a consolidated gold production of 229,454 ounces for Q2, up approximately 12% year-over-year, and remains on track for total production expectations of 970,000-1,075,000 ounces for 2025 [5] - AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) experienced a 21% year-over-year increase in gold production to 804,000 ounces in Q2, with expectations of consolidated production between 2.900 million ounces and 3.225 million ounces for 2025 [6] Financial Performance - ARMN shares have surged 113.1% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's rise of 72.5%, attributed to increasing gold prices [7][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARMN's earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 264.7% for 2025 and 73.8% for 2026, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [9] - ARMN is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 4.16, which is approximately 69.1% below the industry average of 13.45X, and holds a Value Score of A [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 net adjusted earnings reached $48 million or $0.27 per share, marking the highest quarter since the company's formation in September 2022 [4] - Q2 gold revenue totaled $200 million, reflecting a 30% increase over Q1 [4] - Trailing twelve months adjusted EBITDA was $264 million, with a cash position of $310 million at the end of the quarter [5][10] - Free cash flow from operations was $38 million after investing $37 million in expansion projects [10][11] - The company added $70 million to its cash position during Q2, closing with a cash balance of $310 million [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total gold production in Q2 was 58,700 ounces, a 7% increase from Q1, with Segovia producing 51,500 ounces [16][17] - The all-in sustaining cost margin from Segovia increased by 43% compared to Q1, with an all-in sustaining cost of $15.20 per ounce in Q2 [9][17] - Contract mining partners generated a 42% all-in sustaining cost sales margin in Q2, exceeding the company's guidance range [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's market capitalization increased to $1.5 billion as of August 4, reflecting a significant equity cushion below its debt [14] - The share price increased by 38% during Q2, impacting the fair value of the underlying warrants and resulting in a non-cash loss of $45 million from warrant revaluation [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to ramp up production at Segovia to 300,000 ounces in 2026, supported by increased processing capacity and a favorable gold price environment [6][30] - Construction of the Mamato bulk mining zone is on schedule, with the first ore expected to be processed in 2026 [7][23] - The company is focused on advancing key projects, including the Sato Norte prefeasibility study and the Toro Peru preliminary economic assessment, both expected to be completed in Q3 2025 [24][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting 2025 guidance, citing strong operational performance and a supportive gold price environment [4][30] - The company is well-positioned to deliver increased production capacity and solid operating momentum, with plans to double annual production to over 500,000 ounces [30] Other Important Information - The company completed the installation of a second ball mill at Segovia, increasing processing capacity by 50% [6] - A memorandum of understanding was signed with Colombian authorities to formalize artisanal and small-scale miners, promoting responsible mining practices [26][27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Segovia's production guidance - Management indicated that production is expected to ramp up in the second half of the year, with guidance suggesting a modest increase in Q3 and a larger increase in Q4 [32][34] Question: Factors affecting contract mining partners' margins - Management noted that margins are linked to gold prices, which are difficult to predict, and that guidance is a reasonable estimate for year-end performance [35][36] Question: Capital spending expectations for Armada in the second half - Management stated that the estimate for completion remains around $283 million, with further details to be provided later [37]

Financial Performance - Record adjusted net earnings of $48 million were achieved in Q2 2025[12] - Gold revenue increased by 30% from Q1 2025, reaching $200 million[12,50] - Adjusted EBITDA was $99 million, with $264 million on a trailing 12-month basis[12,50] - Cash on hand totaled $310 million, including +$61 million from exercised warrants after June 30, 2025[12] - Adjusted earnings per share reached $027[12,18] Operational Highlights - Total gold production for Q2 2025 was 58,652 ounces, a 7% increase from Q1 2025[25,49] - Segovia Operations produced 51,527 ounces of gold[25,49] - Total AISC margin increased by 43% from Q1 2025, reaching $87 million[25,49] - CMP-sourced gold delivered a 42% AISC sales margin, outperforming the FY 2025 guidance range of 35% to 40%[25,49] Projects and Future Outlook - The company is targeting gold production of 300,000 ounces in 2026[27]

Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) is expected to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 7, following a trend of missing earnings estimates in the previous four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 30.7% [1][10]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - ARMN has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with a negative earnings surprise of 11.1% in the most recent quarter [1][10]. - The consensus estimate for ARMN's second-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 32 cents, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% [11]. Group 2: Production and Sales - The company is anticipated to benefit from increased gold production in the second quarter, primarily driven by the Segovia Operations in Colombia [4][7]. - Consolidated gold production for the second quarter rose by 7% year over year to 58,652 ounces, while total gold sales increased by 12% compared to the prior-year quarter [5]. - For the first half of 2025, consolidated production climbed 13% year over year, reaching 113,415 ounces, with Segovia Operations seeing a production increase of 12% to 99,076 ounces [5][8]. Group 3: Gold Prices Impact - Higher gold prices, which closed the second quarter above $3,300 per ounce, are expected to have positively influenced ARMN's performance [7][9]. - Gold prices reached a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, driven by safe-haven demand amid global trade tensions and geopolitical issues [9].

Group 1 - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) closed at $7.19, with a 5.7% gain over the past four weeks, and has a mean price target of $9.36, indicating a 30.2% upside potential [1] - The average price targets range from a low of $8.72 to a high of $10.08, with a standard deviation of $0.58, suggesting a 21.3% increase at the lowest estimate and a 40.2% increase at the highest [2] - Analysts show strong agreement in revising earnings estimates higher, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year increasing by 11.8% over the past month [11][12] Group 2 - ARMN holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] - The consensus price target, while not entirely reliable, indicates a positive direction for ARMN's stock price movement [14] - Analysts' optimistic outlook on ARMN's earnings prospects correlates with potential near-term stock price movements [11]

Core Insights - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) reported a strong first-quarter performance driven by increased gold sales volumes, leading to significant revenue and earnings growth [1][2] Group 1: Sales and Revenue Performance - ARMN's gold sales increased by approximately 6% year-over-year to 54,281 ounces in the first quarter, reflecting operational efficiency and improved output from Colombian assets [2][8] - The rise in sales volumes resulted in a 47% year-over-year increase in gold revenues, reaching a record $157.5 million, and a 137% surge in earnings from mine operations [2][8] Group 2: Comparative Performance - In contrast, B2Gold Corp. (BTG) experienced a 17% decline in gold sales to 183,998 ounces in the same quarter, while AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) reported an 18% increase in gold sales volumes [3][4] Group 3: Stock Performance and Valuation - ARMN's stock has surged by 105.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 55.4% [5][8] - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 4.08, which is about 67% lower than the industry average of 12.4X, indicating a potential undervaluation [9][8] Group 4: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects ARMN's earnings to rise by 264.7% in 2025 and 73.8% in 2026, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [10]