Company Overview - Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings of 25.8%, with an estimated EPS of $0.23 for the quarter ended March 2025 [3][12] - Revenue is projected to be $635.17 million, reflecting a significant increase of 57.1% compared to the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on May 8, 2025, and could lead to stock price movements depending on whether the results exceed or fall short of expectations [2] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 6.67% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a more optimistic outlook from analysts [4][10] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP for Astrana Health is +13.04%, suggesting a higher likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which indicates a moderate outlook [11] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Astrana Health was expected to post earnings of $0.09 per share but instead reported a loss of $0.15, resulting in a surprise of -266.67% [12] - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13] Industry Context - In the Zacks Medical - Outpatient and Home Healthcare industry, Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) is also expected to report earnings, with an EPS estimate of $0.31, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8.8% [17] - Elanco's revenue is anticipated to be $1.17 billion, down 3.1% from the previous year [17]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached $665.2 million, an 88.4% increase year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA was $35 million, reflecting a 20.8% growth [16][33] - For the full year 2024, total revenue was $2.03 billion, a 47% increase from 2023, with adjusted EBITDA of $170.4 million, up 16.2% year-over-year [16][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Care Partners segment grew 52% year-over-year to $1.95 billion, driving overall growth despite significant strategic investments that impacted earnings by approximately $13 million [17][34] - Membership in the Care Partner segment increased by 55%, attributed to the conversion of CFC and the acquisition of CHS [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - By the end of 2024, approximately 73% of total capitation revenue came from full risk arrangements, with expectations for continued growth in this area [20] - The company experienced a 5.3% utilization trend across all lines of business, significantly lower than the national average [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on four strategic pillars: sustainable membership growth, responsible risk progression, improving patient outcomes, and operational excellence through the Care Enablement platform [10][24] - Significant investments in automation and AI are planned to enhance efficiency and scalability, with expected operational efficiencies of approximately $10 million by early 2026 [25][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to drive sustainable profitable growth despite a complex macroeconomic environment [41] - The guidance for 2025 anticipates revenues between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $170 million and $190 million [41][42] Other Important Information - The company is working closely with Prospect Health Systems, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, to ensure the acquisition's timeline remains unaffected [37] - The company plans to file a Form 12b-25 to extend the deadline for its annual report due to delays in finalizing financial information related to acquisitions [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you dive deeper into the adjusted EBITDA guidance? - Management indicated that the margin was down due to ongoing investments and the impact of CHS, with a consistent trend assumed for 2025 [49][50] Question: What is the expected free cash flow for this year? - Free cash flow was impacted by one-time items in 2024, but a recovery is expected in 2025, with a higher percentage of free cash flow anticipated [52] Question: How will Medicaid reimbursement cuts impact the business? - Management believes that having most Medicaid membership in California provides some insulation, but no reimbursement increases are assumed in the guidance [70][71] Question: What are the expected margins for Prospect at maturity? - Expected margins for Prospect are projected to be in the low to mid-single digits, with significant potential for growth in fully capitated revenue [129][130] Question: Can you elaborate on the operational playbook for new markets? - The company aims to achieve break-even in new markets by reaching around 10,000 Medicare equivalent memberships, which supports the necessary infrastructure [139]

Company Performance - Astrana Health, Inc. reported a quarterly loss of $0.15 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.09, and a decline from earnings of $0.26 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -266.67% [1] - The company posted revenues of $665.21 million for the quarter ended December 2024, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.42%, and showing significant growth from year-ago revenues of $353.04 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Astrana Health has surpassed consensus revenue estimates three times, but has only exceeded EPS estimates once [2] Stock Outlook - Astrana Health shares have increased approximately 11.3% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.3% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the next quarter is $0.34 on revenues of $574.8 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.41 on revenues of $2.56 billion [7] Industry Context - The Medical - Outpatient and Home Healthcare industry, to which Astrana Health belongs, is currently ranked in the top 31% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors or through tools like the Zacks Rank [5] Estimate Revisions - The estimate revisions trend for Astrana Health is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6]

Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $2,034.5 million, representing a 47% increase from $1,386.7 million in 2023[8] - Care Partners revenue for the year was $1,949.0 million, up 52% from $1,284.1 million[8] - For the fourth quarter of 2024, total revenue was $665.2 million, an 88% increase from $353.0 million in Q4 2023[8] - The company expects total revenue for 2025 to range between $2,500 million and $2,700 million[15] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $170.4 million, an increase of 16% from $146.6 million[8] - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $49,932, compared to $57,849 in 2023, indicating a decrease of 13.6%[29] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $170,370, up 16.1% from $146,587 in 2023[31] - The Adjusted EBITDA margin for the year ended December 31, 2024, was 8%, down from 11% in 2023[31] - 2025 guidance range for net income is projected between $62,500,000 and $73,500,000[36] - EBITDA is expected to range from $145,000,000 to $165,000,000 in 2025[36] - Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to be between $170,000,000 and $190,000,000 for 2025[36] Expenses and Liabilities - The operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, totaled $1,945,190, up from $1,302,048 in 2023, an increase of 49.4%[29] - Total liabilities rose to $842,290 as of December 31, 2024, compared to $522,593 in 2023, marking an increase of 60.1%[27] - Interest expense is estimated to be between $16,000,000 and $19,000,000[36] - Provision for income taxes is projected to be between $34,000,000 and $40,000,000[36] - Depreciation and amortization is expected to remain constant at $32,500,000[36] Assets and Equity - Total assets increased to $1,356,458 as of December 31, 2024, from $933,361 in 2023, reflecting a growth of 45.2%[27] - The company’s total stockholders' equity increased to $712,720 as of December 31, 2024, from $614,218 in 2023, a rise of 16.0%[27] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased slightly to $288,455 as of December 31, 2024, from $293,807 in 2023[26] - The company reported a significant increase in receivables, net, which rose to $226,739 in 2024 from $76,780 in 2023, a growth of 195.5%[26] Strategic Initiatives - Astrana began a Care Enablement partnership with Provider HealthLink, aiming to support approximately 10,000 Medicare Advantage members[13] - The company amended its credit agreement, securing a five-year revolving credit facility of $300 million and a term loan A credit facility of $250 million[13] - Eight affiliates of Astrana were recognized with Elite status in the 2024 Standards of Excellence survey by America's Physician Groups[13] Non-GAAP Measures - Adjusted EBITDA margin is defined as Adjusted EBITDA over total revenue[37] - Non-GAAP measures like Adjusted EBITDA are used for evaluating operational performance and financial decision-making[38] - The company emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP measures for a meaningful understanding of ongoing operating performance[38] - The reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures is provided for comparative purposes[38]

Core Insights - Astrana Health, Inc. reported strong financial performance for the year ended December 31, 2024, with total revenue of $2,034.5 million, representing a 47% increase from $1,386.7 million in 2023 [9] - The company emphasized its commitment to patient-centered care and geographic expansion as key drivers of growth [2][3] Financial Highlights - Total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $665.2 million, an 88% increase from $353.0 million in the same quarter of 2023 [9] - Care Partners revenue reached $1,949.0 million for the year, up 52% from $1,284.1 million in 2023 [9] - Net income attributable to Astrana for the year was $43.1 million, down from $60.7 million in 2023, with diluted earnings per share of $0.90 compared to $1.29 [9] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $170.4 million, a 16% increase from $146.6 million in 2023 [9] Recent Developments - Astrana initiated a Care Enablement partnership with Provider HealthLink to support approximately 10,000 Medicare Advantage members [9] - The company amended its credit agreement with Truist Bank, establishing a five-year revolving credit facility of $300 million and a five-year term loan A credit facility of $250 million [9] - Eight affiliates of Astrana were recognized as Elite status recipients in the 2024 Standards of Excellence survey by America's Physician Groups [9] Segment Results - Care Partners segment generated revenues of $1,949.0 million, with a 52% year-over-year increase [12] - The Care Delivery segment reported revenues of $136.7 million, up 16% from the previous year [12] - The Care Enablement segment achieved revenues of $155.4 million, reflecting a 14% increase [12] 2025 Guidance - Astrana provided guidance for total revenue in 2025, estimating a range between $2,500 million and $2,700 million, and Adjusted EBITDA between $170 million and $190 million [14][15]

Core Insights - Astrana Health, Inc. will release its financial results for Q4 and the full year ended December 31, 2024, on February 27, 2025, after market close [1] - A conference call to discuss these results is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. PT/5:30 p.m. ET on the same day [1] Company Overview - Astrana Health is a technology-powered healthcare company focused on enabling providers to deliver accessible, high-quality, and high-value care [4] - The company operates an integrated healthcare delivery platform that supports providers in value-based care arrangements [4] - Astrana serves over 12,000 providers and more than 1.1 million Americans in value-based care arrangements [5]

Core Viewpoint - Astrana Health, Inc. has repurchased 300,000 shares of its common stock for a total of $10.551 million, reflecting management's confidence in the company's performance and commitment to long-term growth strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Share Repurchase Details - The share repurchase occurred on January 17, 2025, at a price of $35.17 per share, which was the closing price on that date [1]. - The shares were acquired from Allied Physicians of California, a long-standing stockholder and consolidated affiliate of the company [3]. - The repurchase was approved by the company's Board of Directors and the Audit Committee [3]. Group 2: Company Overview - Astrana Health is a technology-powered healthcare company focused on enabling providers to deliver accessible, high-quality, and high-value care [4]. - The company serves over 12,000 providers and more than 1.1 million Americans through value-based care arrangements [5]. - Astrana operates an integrated healthcare delivery platform that supports providers in participating in value-based care, enhancing care quality while managing costs [4].

Core Insights - Astrana Health, Inc. is a leading provider-centric, technology-powered healthcare company focused on delivering accessible, high-quality, and high-value care [2][3] - The company will participate in the J.P. Morgan 2025 Healthcare Conference on January 14, 2024, with a presentation by President and CEO Brandon Sim [1] Company Overview - Astrana Health is headquartered in Alhambra, California, serving over 12,000 providers and more than 1.1 million Americans in value-based care arrangements [3] - The company operates an integrated healthcare delivery platform that supports providers in participating in value-based care arrangements, enhancing the quality of care while maintaining cost-effectiveness [2][3] Conference Participation - The J.P. Morgan 2025 Healthcare Conference will feature a presentation from Astrana's leadership, highlighting the company's strategic initiatives and performance [1]

Core Insights - Astrana Health, Inc. has achieved recognition for eight of its affiliates as Elite status recipients in the 2024 Standards of Excellence™ (SOE®) survey by America's Physician Groups (APG), highlighting their commitment to high-quality, patient-centered care [1][2]. Company Overview - Astrana Health is a technology-powered healthcare company focused on enabling providers to deliver accessible, high-quality, and high-value care [3]. - The company operates an integrated healthcare delivery platform that supports providers in participating in value-based care arrangements, enhancing care quality while managing costs effectively [3][4]. Achievements and Recognition - The APG SOE® survey, now in its 17th year, serves as a benchmark for evaluating healthcare delivery achievements among accountable physician practices [2]. - Astrana's affiliates that attained the highest Elite 5-star status include Access Primary Care Medical Group, Accountable Health Care IPA, Advantage Health Network IPA, All-American Medical Group, Allied Pacific of California IPA, AMG (AstranaCare of California), Community Family Care Medical Group, and Jade Health Care Medical Group [2]. Market Position - Astrana Health serves over 12,000 providers and more than 1.1 million Americans through value-based care arrangements, indicating a significant market presence [4].