Core Viewpoint - Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) shows significant upside potential with a mean price target of $49.56, indicating a 97.3% increase from the current price of $25.12 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Consensus - The average price target consists of nine estimates ranging from a low of $36.00 to a high of $70.00, with a standard deviation of $12.39, suggesting variability in analyst opinions [2] - The lowest estimate indicates a potential increase of 43.3%, while the highest suggests a 178.7% upside [2] - A low standard deviation indicates a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement direction [9] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Optimism - Analysts have shown increasing optimism about ASTH's earnings prospects, with a strong consensus on higher EPS estimates, which correlates with potential stock price increases [11] - Over the last 30 days, two estimates have been revised upward, leading to a 46.4% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [12] Zacks Rank and Investment Potential - ASTH holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [13] - While consensus price targets may not be entirely reliable, the implied direction of price movement appears to be a useful guide for investors [14]

Core Viewpoint - Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are closely correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Astrana Health, Inc. is expected to earn $1.59 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, with no year-over-year change, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 19.5% over the past three months [8]. Institutional Investor Influence - Institutional investors utilize earnings estimates to determine the fair value of stocks, and changes in these estimates can lead to significant buying or selling actions, impacting stock prices [4][5]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade of Astrana Health, Inc. to Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for higher stock movement in the near term [10].

Core Viewpoint - Investors in the Medical - Outpatient and Home Healthcare sector should consider Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) as a potentially better value option compared to Chemed (CHE) based on various financial metrics and rankings [1]. Group 1: Zacks Rank and Earnings Outlook - Astrana Health, Inc. has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive earnings estimate revision trend, while Chemed has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [3]. - The improving earnings outlook for ASTH suggests a favorable investment opportunity compared to CHE [7]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - ASTH has a forward P/E ratio of 15.66, significantly lower than CHE's forward P/E of 20.47, indicating that ASTH may be undervalued [5]. - The PEG ratio for ASTH is 0.91, while CHE's PEG ratio is 2.09, further suggesting that ASTH offers better value considering expected earnings growth [5]. - ASTH's P/B ratio is 1.85 compared to CHE's P/B of 5.84, reinforcing the notion that ASTH is more attractively priced relative to its book value [6]. - Based on these metrics, ASTH has earned a Value grade of A, while CHE has a Value grade of C [6].

Core Insights - Investors often focus on the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for stock valuation, but it has limitations [1] - The EV-to-EBITDA ratio is considered a more comprehensive valuation metric, providing a clearer picture of a company's true value and earnings potential [2][4] Valuation Metrics - EV-to-EBITDA is calculated by dividing a company's enterprise value (EV) by its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) [4] - EV accounts for market capitalization, debt, and preferred stock, minus cash and cash equivalents, offering a complete view of a company's value [4] - EBITDA provides insight into profitability by excluding non-cash expenses, making it a useful proxy for cash flows [4] Investment Opportunities - Stocks with low EV-to-EBITDA ratios are often seen as undervalued and attractive for acquisition [5] - Companies like Astrana Health, KT Corporation, Upbound Group, Noah Holdings, and DXP Enterprises have impressive EV-to-EBITDA ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][9] Screening Criteria for Bargain Stocks - Parameters for screening include EV-to-EBITDA less than the industry median, P/E less than the industry median, and P/B less than the industry median [8][10] - Additional criteria include a minimum average trading volume, current price above $5, and a favorable Zacks Rank [11] Company Profiles - Astrana Health is a physician-centric healthcare company with a Zacks Rank of 1 and an expected earnings growth rate of 76.7% for 2025 [12][13] - KT Corporation, the largest telecommunications operator in South Korea, has a Zacks Rank of 2 and an expected earnings growth rate of 280% for 2025 [13] - Upbound Group, a lease-to-own provider, has a Zacks Rank of 2 with a projected earnings growth rate of 9.1% for 2025 [14] - Noah Holdings, a wealth management service provider in China, has a Zacks Rank of 2 and an expected earnings growth rate of 28% for 2025 [15] - DXP Enterprises, providing innovative solutions and services, has a Zacks Rank of 2 and an expected earnings growth rate of 17.5% for 2025 [16]

[Completion of Acquisition](index=2&type=section&id=Item%202.01%20Completion%20of%20Acquisition%20or%20Disposition%20of%20Assets) On July 1, 2025, Astrana Health, Inc. completed the acquisition of Alta Newport Hospital, LLC, Prospect Health Plan, Inc., and certain PHP Holdings subsidiaries for a final price of **$707.9 million**, financed by a term loan and involving ancillary agreements [Transaction Details](index=2&type=section&id=Item%202.01_1) - On July 1, 2025, the Company completed the acquisition of all outstanding equity interests of Alta Newport Hospital, LLC (doing business as Foothill Regional Medical Center) and Prospect Health Plan, Inc[5](index=5&type=chunk) - The acquisition also included substantially all assets of certain direct and indirect subsidiaries of PHP Holdings, LLC ("PHPH")[5](index=5&type=chunk) - The parties entered into a transition services agreement, under which the sellers will provide certain post-closing services to the Company[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Financial Terms and Financing](index=2&type=section&id=Item%202.01_2) Purchase Price Details | Term | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Original Purchase Price | $745.0 million | | Final Purchase Price | $707.9 million | - The final purchase price consisted of **$707.9 million** in cash and the assumption of certain identified liabilities[7](index=7&type=chunk) - The transaction was financed using **$707.9 million** in proceeds from a five-year delayed draw term loan credit facility of up to **$745 million** with Truist Bank as the administrative agent[7](index=7&type=chunk) - A letter agreement removed certain post-closing purchase price adjustments and related escrow[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Updated Financial Guidance](index=3&type=section&id=Item%202.02%20Results%20of%20Operations%20and%20Financial%20Condition) Following the acquisition, on July 2, 2025, the Company reaffirmed its second-quarter guidance and updated its full-year 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts, noting these preliminary figures are unaudited and subject to change - The Company issued a press release on July 2, 2025, announcing the closing of the acquisition[10](index=10&type=chunk) - The company reaffirmed its second-quarter guidance[10](index=10&type=chunk) - The company updated its full-year 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance[10](index=10&type=chunk) - The preliminary financial results and forecasts are based on management's assumptions and are inherently uncertain; audited financials may differ materially[11](index=11&type=chunk) [Financial Statements and Exhibits](index=4&type=section&id=Item%209.01%20Financial%20Statements%20and%20Exhibits) This report lists key exhibits, including the Asset and Equity Purchase Agreement and the Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, with required financial statements and pro forma information to be filed via amendment within 71 days - The financial statements of the acquired businesses and the pro forma financial information are not filed with this report[16](index=16&type=chunk) - This required financial information will be filed by amendment to the Current Report no later than 71 days after the report's required filing date[16](index=16&type=chunk) - Key exhibits filed include the Asset and Equity Purchase Agreement (Exhibit 2.1), the Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (Exhibit 10.1), and a Press Release (Exhibit 99.1)[17](index=17&type=chunk)

Core Viewpoint - Astrana Health, Inc. has successfully completed the acquisition of Prospect Health for $708 million, aiming to enhance its capabilities in delivering high-quality, patient-centered care across the United States [1][3]. Company Overview - Astrana Health is a physician-centric, technology-enabled healthcare company focused on providing accessible, high-quality care [1][7]. - The company supports over 20,000 providers and 1.6 million patients through value-based care arrangements [8]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Prospect Health, initially announced at $745 million, was finalized at a reduced price of $708 million, reflecting the company's disciplined capital deployment strategy [3]. - Prospect Health operates a network of over 11,000 providers and serves approximately 600,000 members across various healthcare programs [2]. Financial Impact - Astrana expects Prospect Health to contribute approximately $1.2 billion in total revenue and $81 million in adjusted EBITDA on a full-year basis [4]. - The company has updated its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $215 million and $225 million [5]. Debt and Financial Management - Following the acquisition, Astrana will have approximately $700 million of net debt and aims to reduce its net leverage ratio to below 2.5x within the next 12 to 18 months [6].

Company Overview - Astrana Health is a healthcare platform focused on accessible, high-quality, high-value care through a provider-centric, technology-driven approach[7] - The company has a significant scale with 12,000+ providers and 1.1 million members in value-based care arrangements[9] - Astrana Health operates across 16 markets with 20+ payer partners[9] Financial Performance - Astrana Health's FY 2024 Adjusted EBITDA was $170.4 million[10] - The company's FY 2024 revenue was $2.03 billion[10] - The company projects revenue between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion for FY 2025[31] - The company projects Adjusted EBITDA between $170 million and $190 million for FY 2025[31] Growth and Strategy - Astrana Health's revenue has grown at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 29%[25] - Adjusted EBITDA has grown at a CAGR of approximately 22%[27] - 38% of Astrana Health's members are in full-risk arrangements[35] - The company's playbook includes growth, risk progression, outcomes and cost management, and operating leverage[35]

Summary of Astrana Health (ASTH) FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Astrana Health (ASTH) - **Industry**: Healthcare Services and Health Care Information Technology (HCIT) - **CEO**: Brandon Sim - **Conference Date**: June 04, 2025 Key Points and Arguments Business Model and Market Position - Astrana Health operates a unique model aimed at improving healthcare delivery by centralizing physician networks and reducing inefficiencies caused by multiple insurance companies managing their own networks [9][12][18] - The company has been growing rapidly, achieving over 50% year-over-year growth in Q1 of 2025, and has maintained profitability while others in the industry face challenges [10][21][44] - Astrana's model allows it to serve as a single payer for patients, which enhances long-term patient care investments and reduces administrative burdens [40][54] Financial Performance - Astrana Health has achieved a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 29% and an EBITDA CAGR of 22% over the past six years [21][22] - The company serves over 1.1 million patients and has contracts with over 12,000 physicians [21] - LTM (Last Twelve Months) revenue is over $2 billion, with LTM EBITDA exceeding $170 million [22] Growth Strategies - **Organic Growth**: Expansion in California and entry into new states like Nevada and Texas, with Nevada already profitable and Texas nearing breakeven [25][27] - **Inorganic Growth**: Strategic acquisitions of risk-bearing provider businesses, such as Community Family Care and the planned acquisition of Prospect Health for $745 million, which serves over 600,000 members [30][32] Revenue Generation - Revenue is generated from payer partners, with a focus on increasing revenue per member by transitioning members into full-risk arrangements, which can increase revenue from approximately $400 to $850-$900 per member per month [34][36][38] - The percentage of full-risk members has increased from 4% to 38%, driving 75% of revenue in Q1 2025 [37] Cost Management - Astrana Health aims to minimize cost of goods sold (COGS) and general and administrative (G&A) expenses through operational efficiencies and proprietary technology [39][46] - The company has successfully reduced medical trend costs to just over 5%, compared to the national average of close to 10% [43] Industry Challenges and Outlook - The healthcare industry faces challenges such as increased utilization and regulatory changes, but Astrana Health believes its model positions it well to navigate these headwinds [51][52] - The company anticipates continued growth due to its proactive approach in capital deployment and risk management, especially in light of favorable Medicare Advantage rate notices for 2026 [55][56] Additional Important Insights - Astrana Health's technology platform automates prior authorizations and claims processing, leading to faster payments and reduced fraud [47][48] - The company emphasizes the importance of long-term patient relationships, which enhances its ability to invest in preventive care [41][42] - Astrana Health's approach contrasts with traditional insurance models, which often lead to fragmented care and inefficiencies [9][54] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Astrana Health FY Conference Call, highlighting the company's innovative approach, financial performance, growth strategies, and outlook in the healthcare industry.

Core Insights - Astrana Health, Inc. has announced key additions to its senior leadership team to enhance its AI-enabled, value-based care platform and drive growth across its national footprint [1][4] Leadership Appointments - Sherry McBride has been appointed as Chief Operating Officer, effective June 2, 2025, to lead operational integration and execution [2] - McBride brings over 18 years of experience in value-based healthcare operations, previously serving as COO of Providence Health Network and Prospect Medical Systems [3] - Other strategic leadership additions include Georgie Sam as Chief Data and Analytics Officer, Glenn Sobotka as Chief Accounting Officer, and the promotion of Rita Pew to Chief People Officer [5] Strategic Goals - The new leadership team aims to enhance capabilities across operations, data, finance, and talent, positioning the company for greater speed and impact [6] - Astrana Health is accountable for more than 1.7 million patients nationwide, and the leadership team is crucial for unlocking the full value of its platform to improve patient outcomes [6] Company Overview - Astrana Health is a physician-centric, AI-powered healthcare company focused on delivering high-quality, patient-centered care through scalable infrastructure and technology [6] - The company currently supports over 12,000 providers and more than one million patients in value-based care arrangements [7]

Summary of Astrana Health (ASTH) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Astrana Health - **Industry**: Healthcare Delivery - **Business Model**: Partners with physicians to create managed healthcare networks, focusing on value-based arrangements with payers [4][6] Key Business Metrics - **Physician Partnerships**: Over 12,000 physicians [4] - **Patient Base**: Approximately 1,100,000 patients in value-based arrangements [5] - **Revenue Growth**: Reported a 53% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 [7] - **Profitability**: Continues to grow profitability and generate cash [7] Recent Acquisition - **Acquisition of Prospect Health**: - **Transaction Value**: $745 million [8] - **Network Size**: 14,000 physicians serving around 600,000 patients [10] - **Geographic Focus**: Primarily Southern California [10] - **Financials**: Prospect generated $94 million in adjusted EBITDA and $1.2 billion in revenue in 2024 [13] - **Synergies Expected**: $12 to $15 million in cost-related synergies within the first 12 to 24 months [14] Integration and Risks - **Integration Experience**: Previous successful acquisitions have built operational capabilities for seamless integration [19] - **Potential Risks**: Concerns about provider network retention during integration; however, positive reception from physicians has been noted [22][24] - **Operational Risks**: Minimal due to similarities in operational models and existing technology platforms [21] Medicare and Market Trends - **Medicare Advantage**: Represents about 60% of Astrana's business; company is not seeing the same negative trends reported by competitors [39][40] - **Risk Adjustment**: Astrana's risk scores are stable and have improved, positioning the company favorably against upcoming reforms [41][42] - **Market Outlook**: Anticipates a material tailwind from Medicare Advantage rate adjustments [50] Medicaid Insights - **Revenue Impact**: Approximately $2.6 billion in revenue, with 28% from Medicaid; potential for a 20-30% reduction in Medicaid members due to stricter eligibility checks [57][58] - **Profitability**: Medicaid is the lowest margin business but still profitable [57] Commercial Business - **Growth Strategy**: Focus on partnerships with Anthem Blue Cross to build co-branded clinics [67] - **Risk Management**: Historically avoided full risk in commercial due to scale concerns, but may explore this in the future [68] Future Guidance - **2027 EBITDA Target**: $350 million, with conservative growth assumptions [69] - **Confidence in Projections**: Strong belief in achieving guidance based on current operational strategies and market conditions [72] Conclusion - **Long-term Vision**: Astrana aims to demonstrate the viability of running a profitable value-based care company while expanding its footprint in California and beyond [73][75] - **Market Position**: Positioned as a leading player in the healthcare delivery space with a focus on quality and cost-effective care [75]