American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AXL) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call February 16, 2024 10:00 AM ET Company Participants David Lim - Head of Investor Relations David Dauch - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Christopher May - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Dan Levy - Barclays James Picariello - BNP Paribas John Murphy - Bank of America Winnie Dong - Deutsche Bank Joseph Spak - UBS Tom Narayan - RBC Capital Markets Operator Good morning ...

[Business Overview](index=4&type=section&id=Business%20Overview) AAM is a global automotive supplier focusing on driveline and metal forming technologies for diverse vehicle types, serving major OEMs [Business Description](index=4&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Business) AAM is a global Tier 1 automotive supplier specializing in driveline and metal forming technologies for electric, hybrid, and ICE vehicles, with key customers GM, Stellantis, and Ford [Company Overview & Major Customers](index=4&type=section&id=Company%20Overview%20%26%20Major%20Customers) AAM is a leading global Tier 1 automotive supplier of driveline and metal forming technologies, with GM, Stellantis, and Ford as primary customers - AAM is a leading global Tier 1 automotive supplier that designs, engineers, and manufactures Driveline and Metal Forming technologies for electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles[9](index=9&type=chunk) Sales by Major Customer (as % of Consolidated Net Sales) | Customer | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | General Motors (GM) | 39% | 40% | 37% | | Stellantis N.V. | 16% | 18% | 19% | | Ford Motor Company | 12% | 12% | 12% | [Business Strategy & Competitive Strengths](index=4&type=section&id=Business%20Strategy%20%26%20Competitive%20Strengths) AAM's strategy focuses on securing its core ICE business while growing electrification, leveraging operational excellence and technology leadership - The company's strategy is to secure and enhance its core business of internal combustion engine (ICE) programs while simultaneously growing its electrification business[12](index=12&type=chunk) - Key competitive strengths include operational excellence, high-quality standards, and technology leadership, with AAM receiving multiple customer awards, including the GM Overdrive Award for three consecutive years[13](index=13&type=chunk)[16](index=16&type=chunk) - AAM is focused on technology leadership in both its core business (e.g., high-efficiency and lightweight axles) and its growing electrification portfolio (e.g., e-Beam axles)[18](index=18&type=chunk)[19](index=19&type=chunk)[23](index=23&type=chunk) - The company has secured significant future business, including next-generation full-size pickup truck axle programs and a new e-Beam axle program for a future Stellantis electric vehicle[20](index=20&type=chunk)[24](index=24&type=chunk) - AAM is diversifying its customer base with recent business awards from customers like Jupiter Electric Mobility, Mahindra, and Skywell, and is expanding its global presence to support customer platforms worldwide[27](index=27&type=chunk)[28](index=28&type=chunk) [Human Capital & ESG](index=9&type=section&id=Human%20Capital%20%26%20ESG) AAM employs 19,000 associates globally, committed to net-zero emissions by 2040, with strong safety and DEI programs - AAM employs approximately **19,000** associates globally, with about **14,000** being hourly employees, of whom **72%** are represented by collective bargaining agreements[38](index=38&type=chunk) - The company is committed to reaching **net-zero carbon emissions by 2040**, with targets validated by the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi)[37](index=37&type=chunk) - AAM's safety program (S-to-the-Fourth) has resulted in a Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR) of **0.85** in 2023, a reduction of approximately **60%** since the program began in 2015[46](index=46&type=chunk) - The company has a formal Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) program with Board oversight, a DEI Steering Committee, and several Associate Resource Groups (ARGs) to foster an inclusive culture[39](index=39&type=chunk)[40](index=40&type=chunk) [Executive Officers](index=11&type=section&id=Executive%20Officers) This section lists the key executive officers of American Axle & Manufacturing, detailing their positions Executive Officers of AAM | Name | Age | Position | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | David C. Dauch | 59 | Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer | | Terri M. Kemp | 58 | Senior Vice President - Human Resources & Sustainability | | Michael J. Lynch | 59 | President & Chief Operating Officer | | Christopher J. May | 54 | Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer | | Tolga I. Oal | 52 | President - Driveline | | Matthew K. Paroly | 58 | Vice President & General Counsel | [Cybersecurity](index=23&type=section&id=Item%201C.%20Cybersecurity) AAM maintains a formal cybersecurity risk management program overseen by the Audit Committee, reporting no material incidents in 2023 - Cybersecurity risk is managed through an enterprise risk management program and an Information Security Council (ISC) led by the Chief Information Security Officer (CISO)[120](index=120&type=chunk)[121](index=121&type=chunk) - The Audit Committee of the Board of Directors provides oversight, receiving quarterly reports on cybersecurity key performance indicators (KPIs), industry trends, and program updates[123](index=123&type=chunk) - No cybersecurity incidents during the year ended December 31, 2023, had a material impact on the company's strategy, financial condition, or results of operations[124](index=124&type=chunk) [Properties](index=24&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Properties) AAM operates over 80 global facilities, including manufacturing plants for driveline and metal forming, and corporate/technical centers Number of Facilities by Type and Country (Selected) | Country | Driveline Mfg. | Metal Forming Mfg. | Corporate/Tech Centers | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | United States | 2 | 21 | 5 | | Mexico | 7 | 6 | 0 | | China | 4 | 1 | 2 | | Germany | 1 | 5 | 1 | | **Total** | **26** | **42** | **13** | [Risk Factors](index=13&type=section&id=Risk%20Factors) The company faces significant operational, industry, financial, and regulatory risks, including supply chain disruptions and substantial indebtedness [Risk Factors](index=13&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) AAM faces significant risks from operations, industry dynamics, and financial structure, including supply chain issues, customer concentration, and substantial debt [Operational Risks](index=13&type=section&id=Operational%20Risks) Key operational risks include supply chain disruptions, high customer concentration, and challenges in the transition to electric vehicles - The business is susceptible to supply chain disruptions, including volatility in material costs, logistical constraints, and labor shortages, which can negatively impact production and financial condition[58](index=58&type=chunk)[60](index=60&type=chunk)[61](index=61&type=chunk) - AAM has a high concentration of sales with **GM (39%)**, **Stellantis (16%)**, and **Ford (12%)** in 2023, making it vulnerable to production reductions or market share losses by these key customers[64](index=64&type=chunk) - A significant portion of the company's business is supported by its Guanajuato Manufacturing Complex in Mexico, exposing it to risks related to trade, tariffs, and labor in that region[66](index=66&type=chunk) - The industry's shift to EVs presents risks related to significant capital investment, uncertain consumer adoption rates, and potential differences between actual and forecasted revenues for EV programs[68](index=68&type=chunk) [Industry and Market Risks](index=17&type=section&id=Industry%20and%20Market%20Risks) The company faces continuous customer price pressure, intense market competition, and vulnerability to shifts in consumer demand for light trucks - The company is under continuous pressure from customers to implement annual price reductions, which could adversely affect results if not offset by cost-saving initiatives[86](index=86&type=chunk) - The automotive supply market is highly competitive, with pressure from other suppliers, OEM in-house operations, and new technology entrants[87](index=87&type=chunk) - A substantial portion of revenue is derived from products for ICE light truck, SUV, and CUV platforms, making the company vulnerable to shifts in consumer demand away from these segments[91](index=91&type=chunk) [Financial and Legal Risks](index=16&type=section&id=Financial%20and%20Legal%20Risks) Significant financial risks include substantial indebtedness and potential material losses from product recalls or asset impairment - The company has incurred substantial indebtedness, which could reduce operational flexibility, limit access to capital, and contains covenants that restrict certain corporate actions[94](index=94&type=chunk)[95](index=95&type=chunk) - AAM is exposed to potentially material losses and costs from product recalls, field actions, and warranty claims[77](index=77&type=chunk)[78](index=78&type=chunk) - Goodwill and other long-lived assets are at risk of impairment, with the fair value of the Driveline reporting unit exceeding its carrying value by approximately **13%** during the Q4 2023 impairment test[84](index=84&type=chunk)[85](index=85&type=chunk)[233](index=233&type=chunk) [Regulatory and International Risks](index=20&type=section&id=Regulatory%20and%20International%20Risks) Global operations are subject to risks from tariffs, changing trade agreements, new tax laws, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts - Global operations are subject to risks including tariffs, changes in trade agreements, tax laws (such as the OECD/G20 Pillar Two framework), and geopolitical conflicts[101](index=101&type=chunk)[110](index=110&type=chunk) - AAM is in litigation with the IRS over a tax dispute concerning foreign base company sales income (FBCSI), with a potential additional income tax expense for years 2015-2023 estimated to be between **$300 million** and **$350 million** if unsuccessful[224](index=224&type=chunk)[398](index=398&type=chunk) [Financial Information and Performance](index=26&type=section&id=Financial%20Information%20and%20Performance) This section details AAM's financial results, liquidity, and critical accounting estimates, highlighting a net loss in 2023 [Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A)](index=26&type=section&id=Item%207.%20Management%27s%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) In 2023, net sales grew **4.8%** to **$6.08 billion**, but gross profit and net income declined due to increased costs and the UAW strike [Results of Operations (2023 vs. 2022)](index=30&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations%20%282023%20vs.%202022%29) AAM's 2023 financial results show increased net sales but decreased gross profit, operating income, and a net loss, impacted by the UAW strike Key Financial Results (in millions, except EPS) | Metric | 2023 | 2022 | Change | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $6,079.5 | $5,802.4 | $277.1 | 4.8% | | Gross Profit | $624.3 | $704.9 | $(80.6) | (11.4)% | | Operating Income | $146.6 | $243.9 | $(97.3) | (39.9)% | | Net Income (Loss) | $(33.6) | $64.3 | $(97.9) | N/A | | Diluted EPS | $(0.29) | $0.53 | $(0.82) | N/A | - The 2023 UAW strike had an estimated negative impact of **$99 million** on sales and **$27 million** on pre-tax income[134](index=134&type=chunk) - The increase in net sales was primarily driven by the acquisition of Tekfor (contributing ~**$193 million**) and higher production volumes, partially offset by unfavorable metal market pass-throughs and foreign exchange effects (~**$107 million**)[155](index=155&type=chunk) - Gross margin decreased from **12.1%** in 2022 to **10.3%** in 2023, primarily due to increased manufacturing costs (especially labor) and production inefficiencies[156](index=156&type=chunk)[157](index=157&type=chunk) - Interest expense increased to **$201.7 million** from **$174.5 million** in 2022, mainly due to higher interest rates on variable-rate debt[162](index=162&type=chunk) [Segment Performance](index=34&type=section&id=Segment%20Performance) Driveline segment Adjusted EBITDA increased due to higher volumes, while Metal Forming's declined significantly due to increased costs and inefficiencies Segment Sales and Adjusted EBITDA (in millions) | Segment | Measure | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Driveline** | Net External Sales | $4,176.5 | $4,063.5 | $3,695.1 | | | Segment Adj. EBITDA | $543.6 | $510.9 | $541.8 | | **Metal Forming** | Net External Sales | $1,903.0 | $1,738.9 | $1,461.5 | | | Segment Adj. EBITDA | $149.7 | $236.4 | $291.5 | - Driveline Segment Adjusted EBITDA increased primarily due to higher production volumes, partially offset by increased labor and program launch costs[181](index=181&type=chunk) - Metal Forming Segment Adjusted EBITDA decreased due to increased manufacturing costs (primarily labor), production inefficiencies, unfavorable metal/FX impact, and a **$7 million** expense for a field action with a major customer[182](index=182&type=chunk) [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=37&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) AAM maintained strong liquidity of **$1.5 billion** at year-end 2023, with reduced total debt and no significant maturities before 2026 - At December 31, 2023, total liquidity was approximately **$1.5 billion**, consisting of ~**$520 million** in cash and ~**$977 million** in available borrowings under credit facilities[188](index=188&type=chunk) - Net cash provided by operating activities was **$396.1 million** in 2023, a decrease from **$448.9 million** in 2022[189](index=189&type=chunk) - Capital expenditures were **$194.6 million** in 2023, with the company forecasting capital spending to be between **4.0%** and **4.5%** of sales in 2024[195](index=195&type=chunk) - Total debt, net of issuance costs, was reduced to **$2,768.9 million** at year-end 2023 from **$2,921.0 million** at year-end 2022, with **no significant debt maturities before 2026**[188](index=188&type=chunk)[196](index=196&type=chunk) [Critical Accounting Estimates](index=42&type=section&id=Critical%20Accounting%20Estimates) Key estimates include deferred tax asset valuation, potential IRS tax litigation, goodwill impairment, and product warranty liabilities - **Deferred Tax Assets:** A valuation allowance of **$267.1 million** was recorded against deferred tax assets as of December 31, 2023, due to uncertainty about their future realization[219](index=219&type=chunk)[220](index=220&type=chunk) - **Pending Tax Litigation:** An ongoing dispute with the IRS regarding foreign base company sales income could result in a potential additional income tax expense of approximately **$300 million** to **$350 million** if AAM is not successful[224](index=224&type=chunk)[398](index=398&type=chunk) - **Goodwill:** The annual impairment test for the Driveline reporting unit, which holds all of the company's goodwill, indicated that its fair value exceeded its carrying value by approximately **13%** as of Q4 2023[233](index=233&type=chunk) - **Product Warranty:** The warranty accrual was **$66.3 million** as of December 31, 2023, up from **$54.1 million** in 2022, and in 2023, the company recorded a **$7 million** expense related to a specific field action[236](index=236&type=chunk)[237](index=237&type=chunk) [Market Risk Disclosures](index=47&type=section&id=Item%207A.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk) AAM manages currency and interest rate risks using derivatives, with potential impacts from adverse market changes quantified - **Currency Risk:** The company uses foreign currency forward contracts (notional amount of **$206.9 million**) and a fixed-to-fixed cross-currency swap (notional amount of **€200.0 million**) to mitigate foreign exchange risk[243](index=243&type=chunk)[244](index=244&type=chunk) - **Interest Rate Risk:** AAM utilizes variable-to-fixed interest rate swaps with a notional amount of **$700.0 million** to manage exposure to interest rate fluctuations on its variable-rate debt[246](index=246&type=chunk)[247](index=247&type=chunk) - A one-percentage-point increase in interest rates would result in an estimated negative impact of **$4.4 million** to annualized pre-tax earnings and cash flow[247](index=247&type=chunk) [Financial Statements and Supplementary Data](index=48&type=section&id=Item%208.%20Financial%20Statements%20and%20Supplementary%20Data) This section presents AAM's audited consolidated financial statements and the independent auditor's unqualified opinion, highlighting critical audit matters [Consolidated Financial Statements](index=48&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) This section provides a summary of AAM's consolidated statements of operations, balance sheets, and cash flows for recent fiscal years Consolidated Statement of Operations Highlights (in millions) | Line Item | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $6,079.5 | $5,802.4 | $5,156.6 | | Gross Profit | $624.3 | $704.9 | $722.7 | | Operating Income | $146.6 | $243.9 | $240.6 | | Net Income (Loss) | $(33.6) | $64.3 | $5.9 | Consolidated Balance Sheet Highlights (in millions) | Line Item | Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Current Assets | $2,006.6 | $1,993.4 | | Total Assets | $5,356.3 | $5,469.4 | | Total Current Liabilities | $1,201.6 | $1,199.3 | | Long-term Debt, net | $2,751.9 | $2,845.1 | | Total Liabilities | $4,751.4 | $4,842.1 | | Total Stockholders' Equity | $604.9 | $627.3 | Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows Highlights (in millions) | Line Item | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash provided by operating activities | $396.1 | $448.9 | $538.4 | | Net cash used in investing activities | $(184.5) | $(243.0) | $(161.1) | | Net cash used in financing activities | $(205.5) | $(217.2) | $(401.4) | | Net increase (decrease) in cash | $8.4 | $(18.7) | $(26.8) | [Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements](index=53&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) Detailed notes explain accounting policies, debt, pension obligations, the Tekfor acquisition, and the ongoing IRS tax litigation - **Note 2 (Restructuring):** The company incurred **$25.2 million** in restructuring and acquisition-related costs in 2023, primarily for severance, plant exit costs, and integration of the Tekfor acquisition[294](index=294&type=chunk)[299](index=299&type=chunk) - **Note 4 (Debt):** Total debt outstanding was **$2.81 billion** at year-end 2023, with the company having **no significant maturities until 2026**[307](index=307&type=chunk)[317](index=317&type=chunk) - **Note 7 (Pensions):** At year-end 2023, the net liability for pension benefits was **$78.8 million** and for OPEB was **$287.8 million**[348](index=348&type=chunk) - **Note 16 (Acquisitions):** The acquisition of Tekfor Group on June 1, 2022, resulted in a gain on bargain purchase of **$13.6 million**, primarily due to macroeconomic factors at the time of the deal[450](index=450&type=chunk)[452](index=452&type=chunk) [Report of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm](index=97&type=section&id=Report%20of%20Independent%20Registered%20Public%20Accounting%20Firm) This section presents the independent auditor's unqualified opinion on AAM's financial statements and internal controls, highlighting critical audit matters - The independent auditor, Deloitte & Touche LLP, issued an **unqualified opinion** on the consolidated financial statements and the effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2023[478](index=478&type=chunk) - The audit identified two Critical Audit Matters (CAMs): 1. **Income Taxes:** Due to the complexity and judgment involved in assessing the realizability of deferred tax assets and uncertain tax positions[485](index=485&type=chunk)[486](index=486&type=chunk) 2. **Goodwill Impairment Analysis:** Due to the subjective assumptions required to estimate the fair value of the Driveline reporting unit[488](index=488&type=chunk) [Governance and Controls](index=100&type=section&id=Governance%20and%20Controls) This section outlines AAM's effective disclosure controls and internal control over financial reporting, with no material changes identified [Controls and Procedures](index=100&type=section&id=Item%209A.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) Management affirmed the effectiveness of AAM's disclosure controls and internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2023 - Management concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures were **effective** as of December 31, 2023[492](index=492&type=chunk) - Management's assessment, based on the COSO framework, concluded that internal control over financial reporting was **effective** as of December 31, 2023[493](index=493&type=chunk) - There were **no changes** in internal control over financial reporting during Q4 2023 that materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, internal controls[495](index=495&type=chunk) [Other Information (Part III & IV)](index=101&type=section&id=Other%20Information%20%28Part%20III%20%26%20IV%29) Part III information is incorporated by reference from the Proxy Statement, while Part IV lists financial statements and exhibits - Information required by Items 10 (Directors, Executive Officers and Corporate Governance), 11 (Executive Compensation), 12 (Security Ownership), 13 (Certain Relationships), and 14 (Principal Accounting Fees) is incorporated by reference from the company's Proxy Statement[497](index=497&type=chunk)[498](index=498&type=chunk)[499](index=499&type=chunk) - Item 15 lists the financial statements, financial statement schedules, and exhibits that are filed as part of the 10-K report[501](index=501&type=chunk)

AAM Delivers Sequential Margin Improvement DETROIT, Feb. 16, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AAM), (NYSE: AXL) today reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023.  Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Sales of $1.46 billion Net loss of $(19.1) million, or (1.3)% of sales Adjusted EBITDA of $169.5 million, or 11.6% of sales Diluted loss per share of $(0.16); Adjusted loss per share of $(0.09) Net cash provided by operating activities of $52.9 million; Ad ...

Wall Street analysts expect American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) to post quarterly loss of $0.16 per share in its upcoming report, which indicates a year-over-year decline of 128.6%. Revenues are expected to be $1.47 billion, up 5.6% from the year-ago quarter.Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been adjusted downward by 20% to its current level. This demonstrates the covering analysts' collective reassessment of their initial projections during this period.Ahead of a company ...

Core Viewpoint - American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues, with the earnings report set for February 16, 2024 [1] Financial Performance Expectations - The company is expected to post a quarterly loss of $0.16 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -128.6% [2] - Revenues are projected to be $1.47 billion, which is a 5.6% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 20% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - The Most Accurate Estimate for American Axle is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -9.85% [5] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with a focus on positive readings for predictive power [3][4] - American Axle's current Zacks Rank is 3, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [5][6] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, American Axle was expected to post a loss of $0.04 per share but actually reported a loss of $0.11, resulting in a surprise of -175% [7] - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [7] Conclusion - The likelihood of American Axle beating earnings expectations appears low, and investors should consider other factors when evaluating the stock ahead of the earnings release [8]

Group 1 - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AAM) will hold a conference call on February 16, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. ET to discuss its fourth quarter and full year financial results [1] - A press release with the financial results will be issued before the market opens on the same day and will be available on AAM's website [1] - The company has provided phone numbers for participation in the call, as well as details for a live audio webcast and replay options [1] Group 2 - AAM is a leading global Tier 1 Automotive and Mobility Supplier, focusing on driveline and metal forming technologies for electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles [2] - The company is headquartered in Detroit and operates over 80 facilities across 18 countries [2] - AAM aims to contribute to a safer and more sustainable future in the automotive industry [2]

Company Overview - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings operates as an automotive and mobility supplier, focusing on driveline and metal forming technologies for internal combustion, electric, and hybrid vehicles [2] Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2023, the company reported sales of $4.62 billion, a 4.7% increase from $4.41 billion in the same period of 2022, largely driven by the acquisition of Tekfor, which contributed $178 million to the sales increase [3] - Net profits turned from $50.4 million in the first nine months of 2022 to a loss of $14.5 million in the same period of 2023, with EBITDA decreasing from $589.6 million to $520.8 million [4][5] - The company expects total revenue for 2023 to be between $6 billion and $6.1 billion, up from $5.80 billion in 2022, but anticipates EBITDA to decline to between $660 million and $685 million from $747.3 million in 2022 [5] Debt and Leverage - The company has a net debt of $2.24 billion, significantly higher than its market capitalization of $938.8 million, resulting in a net leverage ratio of 3.34 based on midpoint EBITDA guidance for 2023 [6] - There are no significant debt repayments due until the 2026 fiscal year, with a larger amount of debt maturing in 2027 [6] Market Position and Future Outlook - Management aims to capture over 10% of the electric vehicle market by 2030, investing in parts specifically for electric vehicles and has received awards for its eDrive platform [7] - The company's shares are currently trading at a price to adjusted operating cash flow multiple of 2.3 and an EV to EBITDA multiple of 4.7, making it cheaper than several comparable firms [8][9] Investment Perspective - Despite the risks associated with elevated leverage and recent financial performance, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings presents attractive investment prospects, with potential for stock price recovery as long as no significant negative developments arise [10]

Immersive exhibit highlights AAM's continued commitment to supporting OEM's move toward electrification DETROIT, Jan. 9, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM) (NYSE: AXL) is at the forefront of helping the world's largest automakers transition to electric vehicles by creating the industry's most innovative driveline technologies for passenger cars and trucks. At CES 2024, AAM will showcase its award-winning, next-generation 3-in-1 electric drive units (eDUs), fully integrated e-Beam axles ...

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AXL) Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call November 3, 2023 10:00 AM ET Company Participants David Lim - Head of Investor Relations David Dauch - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Christopher May - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Chase & Co. James Picariello - BNP Paribas Exane. Douglas Karson - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Tom Narayan - RBC Capital Markets Joseph Spak - UBS Dan Levy ...

[Forward-Looking Statements](index=3&type=section&id=FORWARD-LOOKING%20STATEMENTS) This section contains standard cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from expectations - This section outlines important factors that could cause actual results to differ from expectations, including global economic conditions (inflation, recession) and changes in technology[7](index=7&type=chunk)[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Key risk factors highlighted include reduced purchases from major customers like **GM**, **Stellantis**, and **Ford**, and reduced demand for light trucks and SUVs[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Part I: Financial Information](index=4&type=section&id=Part%20I%20FINANCIAL%20INFORMATION) [Financial Statements](index=4&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements) This section presents the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the period ended September 30, 2023, including statements of operations, comprehensive income, balance sheets, cash flows, and stockholders' equity, along with detailed explanatory notes [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=4&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) The company reported a net loss of **$17.4 million** for Q3 2023, a significant downturn from the **$26.5 million** net income in Q3 2022, driven by higher cost of goods sold and increased interest expenses Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (in millions) | Metric | Three Months Ended Sep 30, 2023 | Three Months Ended Sep 30, 2022 | Nine Months Ended Sep 30, 2023 | Nine Months Ended Sep 30, 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net sales** | $1,551.9 | $1,535.2 | $4,616.5 | $4,409.7 | | **Gross profit** | $130.6 | $177.4 | $469.4 | $537.7 | | **Operating income** | $23.9 | $62.3 | $117.8 | $190.3 | | **Net income (loss)** | $(17.4) | $26.5 | $(14.5) | $50.4 | | **Diluted EPS** | $(0.15) | $0.22 | $(0.12) | $0.42 | [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=6&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of September 30, 2023, total assets were **$5.475 billion**, nearly flat compared to year-end 2022, with cash and cash equivalents increasing to **$615.6 million** Key Balance Sheet Items (in millions) | Metric | September 30, 2023 | December 31, 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Cash and cash equivalents** | $615.6 | $511.5 | | **Total current assets** | $2,139.2 | $1,993.4 | | **Total assets** | $5,475.0 | $5,469.4 | | **Long-term debt, net** | $2,833.9 | $2,845.1 | | **Total liabilities** | $4,861.3 | $4,842.1 | | **Total stockholders' equity** | $613.7 | $627.3 | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=7&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) For the nine months ended September 30, 2023, net cash provided by operating activities increased to **$343.2 million**, while net cash used in investing and financing activities decreased, resulting in a **$104.1 million** increase in cash and cash equivalents Cash Flow Summary (Nine Months Ended Sep 30, in millions) | Metric | 2023 | 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net cash provided by operating activities** | $343.2 | $300.4 | | **Net cash used in investing activities** | $(126.7) | $(197.4) | | **Net cash used in financing activities** | $(108.2) | $(147.8) | | **Net increase (decrease) in cash** | $104.1 | $(57.9) | [Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements](index=10&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) The notes provide detailed explanations of the financial statements, covering key accounting policies and specific events, including restructuring costs, a **$13 million** product warranty expense, an ongoing IRS tax dispute with potential exposure of **$285-$335 million**, and detailed segment performance data - Total restructuring and acquisition-related costs were **$16.2 million** for the first nine months of 2023, associated with the 2020 Program, Emporium facility closure, and Tekfor integration[32](index=32&type=chunk)[33](index=33&type=chunk) - In Q3 2023, the company recorded a **$13 million** expense for a field action related to a die cast component, with potential additional expense up to approximately **$15 million**[80](index=80&type=chunk) - The company is in a dispute with the IRS over the tax treatment of income from a Luxembourg subsidiary's Mexican branch, with potential additional income tax expense for years 2015-2022 estimated between **$285 million** and **$335 million** if unsuccessful[89](index=89&type=chunk) Segment Net External Sales (Nine Months Ended Sep 30, in millions) | Segment | 2023 | 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Driveline | $3,161.4 | $3,113.3 | | Metal Forming | $1,455.1 | $1,296.4 | | **Total** | **$4,616.5** | **$4,409.7** | [Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (MD&A)](index=34&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management's%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) The MD&A section details the company's financial performance, attributing the **1.1%** Q3 sales increase to higher production volumes, offset by metal market pass-throughs, while gross margin declined from **11.6%** to **8.4%** due to a **$13 million** warranty charge and increased manufacturing costs, with liquidity remaining strong at nearly **$1.6 billion** [Company Overview](index=34&type=section&id=Company%20Overview) AAM is a global Tier 1 automotive supplier of Driveline and Metal Forming technologies, with high customer concentration in **GM**, **Stellantis**, and **Ford**, and the UAW work stoppage negatively impacted Q3 2023 sales by an estimated **$15 million** Customer Sales Concentration (First Nine Months 2023) | Customer | % of Consolidated Net Sales | | :--- | :--- | | General Motors (GM) | ~39% | | Stellantis N.V. | ~17% | | Ford Motor Company | ~12% | - The UAW work stoppages at its three largest customers in Q3 2023 resulted in an estimated negative impact of **$15 million** on sales and **$4 million** on pre-tax income[151](index=151&type=chunk) - The total estimated impact of the UAW work stoppages across Q3 and Q4 is projected to be **$70-$100 million** on sales and **$25-$40 million** on pre-tax income[152](index=152&type=chunk) [Results of Operations](index=36&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations) For Q3 2023, net sales increased **1.1%** year-over-year to **$1.55 billion**, while gross profit fell **26.4%** to **$130.6 million**, primarily due to a **$13 million** warranty charge and higher manufacturing costs, significantly impacting the Metal Forming segment's adjusted EBITDA Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022 Performance (in millions) | Metric | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | Change | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $1,551.9 | $1,535.2 | $16.7 | 1.1% | | Gross Profit | $130.6 | $177.4 | $(46.8) | (26.4)% | | Operating Income | $23.9 | $62.3 | $(38.4) | (61.6)% | - The decline in Q3 gross profit was driven by a **$13 million** field action charge, increased labor costs, and production inefficiencies due to labor shortages[159](index=159&type=chunk) Segment Adjusted EBITDA (in millions) | Segment | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | YTD 2023 | YTD 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Driveline | $137.3 | $137.0 | $403.5 | $392.2 | | Metal Forming | $19.5 | $61.4 | $120.3 | $197.4 | [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=45&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) The company maintained a strong liquidity position of nearly **$1.6 billion** as of September 30, 2023, with net cash from operations increasing to **$343.2 million** for the first nine months of 2023, and no significant debt maturities before 2026 - Total liquidity as of September 30, 2023, was nearly **$1.6 billion**, consisting of **$616 million** in cash, **$877 million** available under the Revolving Credit Facility, and **$83 million** under foreign credit facilities[203](index=203&type=chunk) - Net cash provided by operating activities increased to **$343.2 million** in the first nine months of 2023, compared to **$300.4 million** in the prior-year period, partly due to favorable timing of accounts receivable collections[204](index=204&type=chunk)[205](index=205&type=chunk) - Capital expenditures for the first nine months of 2023 were **$138.6 million**, up from **$117.9 million** in the same period of 2022, with full-year 2023 capital spending projected to be **3.0% to 3.5%** of sales[210](index=210&type=chunk) [Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=51&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk) The company is exposed to market risks from currency exchange rates and interest rates, using foreign currency forward contracts and cross-currency swaps to hedge currency risk, and variable-to-fixed interest rate swaps to manage interest rate risk on its variable-rate debt - The company hedges foreign currency risk with forward contracts totaling a notional amount of **$212.7 million** and a cross-currency swap with a notional amount of **€200.0 million** as of September 30, 2023[230](index=230&type=chunk)[231](index=231&type=chunk) - A one-percentage-point increase in interest rates would have an annualized pre-tax earnings and cash flow impact of approximately **$4.7 million** on the company's long-term debt[234](index=234&type=chunk) [Controls and Procedures](index=52&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) Management, under the direction of the CEO and CFO, evaluated and concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of September 30, 2023, with no material changes to internal control over financial reporting during the quarter, and the integration of the acquired Tekfor Group's policies and processes is ongoing - The CEO and CFO concluded that disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of the end of the quarter[236](index=236&type=chunk) - No material changes were made to internal control over financial reporting in Q3 2023, and the integration of Tekfor Group's controls is ongoing and will be included in the year-end assessment[237](index=237&type=chunk) [Part II: Other Information](index=53&type=section&id=Part%20II%20OTHER%20INFORMATION) [Risk Factors](index=53&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) This section states that there were no material changes from the risk factors that were previously disclosed in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022 - No material changes to risk factors were reported compared to the 2022 Form 10-K[239](index=239&type=chunk) [Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=53&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) During the third quarter of 2023, the company purchased a total of **1,306** shares of its own equity securities at an average price of **$7.53** per share, which were not part of a publicly announced plan or program Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities (Q3 2023) | Period | Total Shares Purchased | Average Price Paid | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | July 2023 | 0 | N/A | | August 2023 | 1,306 | $7.53 | | September 2023 | 0 | N/A | | **Total** | **1,306** | **$7.53** |