Industry Overview - The Auto-Tires-Trucks sector is currently in the second-quarter earnings season, with companies like Tesla, Ford, General Motors, Aptiv, and O'Reilly Automotive reporting quarterly numbers that exceeded earnings estimates [1] - The auto sector's earnings for Q2 2025 are projected to decline by 27.7% year-over-year, with revenues expected to decrease by 6% [2] Market Performance - U.S. vehicle sales showed modest year-over-year growth in Q2, driven by strong demand for gasoline-powered and hybrid vehicles, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million units in June [4] - Retail vehicle inventory reached 2.16 million units in June, marking a 22.9% increase from June 2024, while average transaction prices rose to $46,233, up $1,400 from the previous year [4] Impact of Tariffs - Higher tariffs on imports initially increased demand among price-sensitive buyers, but as prices stabilized, this momentum began to wane [5] - Elevated operating costs, particularly in R&D for advanced technologies, are likely to have negatively impacted earnings [5] Potential Winners - Companies identified as well-positioned to exceed earnings estimates include Cummins Inc. (CMI), Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN), Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID), and American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL) [3] Company Highlights Cummins Inc. (CMI) - Cummins is the largest engine manufacturer globally, with a strong product lineup and a focus on electrification and clean energy technologies [8][9] - The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with Q2 earnings and revenues estimated at $4.99 per share and $8.47 billion, respectively [10][11] Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) - Rivian is targeting budget-conscious consumers with its upcoming R2 and R3 models, with the R2 expected to launch in H1 2026 at a starting price of around $45,000 [12] - The company has an Earnings ESP of +8.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with Q2 revenue estimated at $1.26 billion [14] Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) - Lucid's vehicles are now compatible with Tesla's Supercharger network, enhancing convenience for owners and potentially boosting sales [15] - The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with Q2 revenue estimated at $253.4 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 26.4% [17] American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL) - American Axle is advancing in the electric drive space and has a strong electrification portfolio, with key launches driving growth [18] - The company has an Earnings ESP of +17.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with Q2 earnings and revenues estimated at 13 cents and $1.51 billion, respectively [20]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - American Axle is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.13 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 31.6% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $1.51 billion, down 7.8% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 16.88% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for American Axle is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +17.59% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. - American Axle currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, American Axle exceeded the expected earnings of $0.02 per share by delivering $0.09, resulting in a surprise of +350.00% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14]. Industry Context - Another player in the automotive industry, Adient (ADNT), is expected to post earnings of $0.47 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 46.9% [18]. - Adient's revenues are anticipated to be $3.56 billion, down 4.2% from the previous year, with a revised EPS estimate up by 15.3% in the last 30 days [19].

Group 1 - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AAM) will hold a conference call to discuss second quarter financial results on August 8, 2025 [1] - A press release with the financial results will be issued before the market opens on the same day [1] - The conference call can be accessed via phone or live audio webcast, with a replay available for a limited time [2] Group 2 - AAM is a leading global Tier 1 Automotive and Mobility Supplier, focusing on driveline and metal forming technologies for various vehicle types [3] - The company is headquartered in Detroit, MI, and operates over 75 facilities across 16 countries [3] - AAM aims to support the transition to electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles for a safer and more sustainable future [3]

Core Viewpoint - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AAM) has received approval from its stockholders for the proposed acquisition of Dowlais Group plc, marking a significant step towards creating a leading global automotive supplier [1][4] Group 1: Transaction Details - AAM stockholders approved all proposals related to the acquisition of Dowlais, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, pending Dowlais shareholder approval and other regulatory conditions [1][3] - The combined entity is projected to generate annual revenues of approximately $12 billion on a non-adjusted basis, enhancing AAM's geographic presence across various automotive segments, including internal combustion engines, hybrids, and electric powertrains [2] Group 2: Leadership and Strategic Vision - David C. Dauch, Chairman and CEO of AAM, will continue to lead the combined company, emphasizing the value creation opportunity and the ability to navigate industry shifts and volatility [4] - AAM plans to seek a secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange for its common stock, including new shares issued in connection with the acquisition [2]

Group 1 - The stock of American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL) is experiencing significant attention due to high implied volatility in the options market, particularly the July 18, 2025 $2.00 Put option [1] - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectation of future price movement, suggesting that investors anticipate a significant change in the stock's price, potentially due to an upcoming event [2] - American Axle currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) in the Automotive - Original Equipment industry, which is in the bottom 26% of the Zacks Industry Rank, with recent earnings estimates being revised downward [3] Group 2 - The high implied volatility surrounding American Axle may indicate a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on such options to capitalize on time decay [4]

February 2024 Investor Presentation Forward-Looking Statements In this presentation, we make statements concerning our expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, goals, strategies, and future events or performance. Such statements are "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and relate to trends and events that may affect our future financial position and operating results. The terms such as "will," "may," "could," "would," "plan," "believe," "ex ...

Key Information - The discloser is Man Group PLC, which has interests in relevant securities of American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. and Dowlais Group plc [1] - The position was held as of June 23, 2025, and the disclosure was made on June 24, 2025 [1][15] Positions of the Discloser - Man Group PLC holds 831,052 shares of USD 0.01 common stock, representing 0.71% of the relevant securities [3] - The company has short positions in cash-settled derivatives amounting to 1,221,015, which is 1.04% of the relevant securities [3] Dealings - On June 23, 2025, Man Group PLC purchased 527 shares at a price of 4.10 USD per unit and sold 5,900 shares at the same price [8]

Group 1 - The independent investor has over a decade of experience focusing on cash flow statements and unlevered free cash flow figures [1] - The investor's analysis includes various financial metrics such as cost of capital, cost of debt, WACC, share count, and net debt [1] - The investor typically avoids writing about growth stocks and instead focuses on companies with a long history of financial reporting [1] Group 2 - The investor expresses a beneficial long position in the shares of AXL through stock ownership or derivatives [2] - The article reflects the investor's personal opinions and is not compensated beyond Seeking Alpha [2] - There is no business relationship with any company mentioned in the article [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company announced a new contract with Scout Motors for producing electric vehicle components, indicating a strategic shift towards electrification [5][6] - Management emphasized the importance of scale in revenue and buying power to navigate the current market uncertainties [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and extended range electric vehicles (EREVs), highlighting a dual approach to meet consumer preferences [10][11] - The acquisition of Dallaigh is expected to provide significant synergies, estimated at $300 million, which will enhance EBITDA and strengthen the balance sheet [31][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The North American production schedules are described as somewhat volatile but manageable, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the supply chain [47] - The company is observing increased inquiries for metal forming services as OEMs consider onshoring production to the U.S. [42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to diversify its product offerings and reduce dependence on any single customer or technology, positioning itself to adapt to market changes [28][29] - The management believes that consolidation in the industry is likely due to rising costs and the need for shared resources [39][41] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to recover tariff-related costs and maintain a low exposure to tariffs due to localized production [50][51] - The management is optimistic about the future of the electric vehicle market, particularly in the U.S. and China, where they see significant growth potential [72][73] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing a dual listing to enhance shareholder value and facilitate the integration of the acquisition [46] - The management is committed to deleveraging post-acquisition while remaining open to shareholder-friendly activities once leverage targets are met [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the competitive dynamics in the public space going forward? - Management noted that competition remains stiff but emphasized the importance of having the right technology and cost structure in place to succeed [60][61] Question: How is the company positioned in the European market? - Management stated that they have carefully analyzed the European footprint and are not concerned about the complexity, believing it will be additive to the deal [68][69] Question: What are the prospects in the Chinese market? - Management highlighted the importance of the Chinese market for electrification and the successful joint venture in the region, indicating strong future prospects [71][72] Question: What is the guidance for the upcoming earnings? - Management indicated that guidance will be evaluated and announced in early August, citing current market volatility as a factor [76][77]

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