American Axle & Manufacturing (NYSE: AXL ) has spent decades as a go-to name in driveline and metal forming, particularly for trucks and SUVs built by major OEMs. Headquartered in Detroit, the company built its reputationI focus on producing objective, data-driven research, mostly about small- to mid-cap companies, as these tend to be overlooked by many investors. From time to time, though, I also look at large-cap names, just to give a fuller sense of the broader equity markets.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we h ...

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (AXL) reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 9 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 2 cents. The company recorded earnings of 18 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. AXL generated quarterly revenues of $1.41 billion, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.42 billion. Revenues declined 12.2% on a year-over-year basis.Segmental Performance of AXLIn the reported quarter, the Driveline segment recorded sales of $957.8 million, dow ...

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UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q ☑ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2025 or ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 (Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter) Delaware 38-3161171 (State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation or Organization) (I.R.S. Employer Identification No.) One Dauch Drive, Detroit, ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AAM's first quarter 2025 sales were $1.41 billion, down from $1.61 billion in the same quarter of 2024 [20][21] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $177 million, representing a margin of 12.6%, compared to $205.6 million and 12.8% in the prior year [22][26] - GAAP net income was $7.1 million or $0.06 per share, down from $20.5 million or $0.17 per share in the first quarter of 2024 [26] - Adjusted free cash flow was a use of $3.9 million, an improvement from the previous year [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American production decreased approximately 5% year-over-year [9] - The Metal Form business unit showed improved EBITDA margins, increasing by 150 basis points year-over-year [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AAM's sales were impacted by a lower overall volume in North America, with a volume mix decline of $166 million [21] - Foreign exchange effects, particularly from a weaker Brazilian real, contributed to a sales reduction of approximately $28 million [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AAM exited its Hefei AM Automotive and Luocho AM Automotive joint ventures in China, collecting approximately $30 million in cash [10] - The company is focused on a transformational transaction with DALL E, expected to close in Q4 2025, which aims to generate approximately $300 million in synergies [11][12] - AAM's strategy includes a strong emphasis on local production, with 90% of products produced in North America being USMCA compliant [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged macro uncertainties due to new trade policies but expressed confidence in navigating these challenges [13][36] - The company updated its 2025 guidance, targeting sales between $5.65 billion and $5.95 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $665 million to $745 million [17][33] - Management remains optimistic about the future, emphasizing the importance of closing and integrating the DALL E transaction and advancing their product portfolio [19][36] Other Important Information - AAM's net cash provided by operating activities for Q1 2025 was $55.9 million, significantly higher than $17.8 million in Q1 2024 [27] - The company ended the quarter with a strong cash position of over $500 million and total available liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on future contingencies and utilization of excess capacity - Management indicated that they have some open capacity in U.S. facilities and are willing to make adjustments based on customer needs [41][42] Question: Tariff exposure for DALL E - Management stated that DALL E has a similar footprint and is managing tariff exposure similarly to AAM [46][47] Question: GM's positive volume outlook and its impact on guidance - Management confirmed that their guidance incorporates GM's strong demand for full-size trucks, expecting production in the range of 1.3 million to 1.4 million units [50][51] Question: Impact of macro volatility on the DALL E transaction - Management clarified that macro volatility has not complicated the transaction process, and both companies are focused on local production [54] Question: Near-term production schedules - Management noted some volatility in customer schedules but emphasized strong performance in key platforms [59][62] Question: Tariff policies and their impact - Management confirmed that under current USMCA policies, tariff impacts are limited, and they are working to ensure compliance [68][69] Question: Balance sheet structure post-transaction - Management discussed the challenges of moving production facilities and emphasized the long-term nature of such changes [122]

Core Viewpoint - American Axle & Manufacturing reported quarterly earnings of $0.09 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.02 per share, but down from $0.18 per share a year ago, indicating a 350% earnings surprise [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $1.41 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.76%, and down from $1.61 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, American Axle has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times but has topped revenue estimates only once [2] Stock Performance - American Axle shares have declined approximately 34.8% since the beginning of the year, compared to a decline of 4.7% for the S&P 500 [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.17 on revenues of $1.53 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.42 on revenues of $5.86 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for American Axle is mixed, and future changes in estimates will be closely monitored following the recent earnings report [6][7] Industry Context - The Automotive - Original Equipment industry, to which American Axle belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AAM's Q1 2025 sales were $1.41 billion, down from $1.61 billion in Q1 2024 [20] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $177.3 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.6%, compared to $205.6 million and 12.8% in the previous year [22] - GAAP net income was $7.1 million or $0.06 per share in Q1 2025, down from $20.5 million or $0.17 per share in Q1 2024 [26] - Adjusted free cash flow was a use of $3.9 million in Q1 2025, an improvement from the prior year [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American production decreased approximately 5% year-over-year [8] - The Metal Form business unit showed improved EBITDA margins, increasing by 150 basis points year-over-year [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AAM's sales were impacted by a lower volume mix, resulting in a decrease of $166 million primarily due to lower overall volumes in North America [21] - Foreign exchange fluctuations, particularly from a weaker Brazilian real, contributed to a sales reduction of approximately $28 million [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AAM exited its joint ventures in China, collecting approximately $30 million in cash, as part of a strategy to focus on core businesses and capital allocation [9] - The company is on track to close the transformational transaction with Dali by Q4 2025, which is expected to yield significant synergies of approximately $300 million [11][12] - AAM aims to enhance its EV portfolio and maintain a balanced capital allocation policy post-acquisition [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged macro uncertainties due to new trade policies but emphasized a strategy of local sourcing, with 90% of products produced in North America being USMCA compliant [13] - The company updated its 2025 guidance, targeting sales between $5.65 billion and $5.95 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $665 million and $745 million [17][32] - Management expressed confidence in navigating tariff impacts and leveraging opportunities presented by onshoring trends [34] Other Important Information - AAM's net debt stood at $2.1 billion with a net leverage ratio of 2.9x as of March 31, 2025 [27] - The company maintained a strong cash position of over $500 million due to operational performance and proceeds from joint venture sales [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on future contingencies and utilization of excess capacity - Management indicated that they have open capacity in several facilities and are willing to make adjustments based on customer needs [40][41] Question: Tariff exposure for Dali - Management noted that Dali has a similar production footprint and is managing tariff exposure similarly to AAM [44] Question: GM's volume outlook and its impact on guidance - Management confirmed that the guidance incorporates GM's strong demand for full-size trucks, expecting production in the range of 1.3 million to 1.4 million units [47][48] Question: Impact of macro volatility on the Dali transaction - Management stated that macro volatility has not complicated the process and both companies are focused on local sourcing [50] Question: Near-term production schedules - Management acknowledged some volatility in customer schedules but noted strong performance in core platforms [56][58] Question: Tariff policies and their impact - Management confirmed that under current USMCA policies, tariff impacts are limited, and they are working to ensure compliance [64][65] Question: Long-term implications of ICE and EV market changes - Management expressed that continued ICE production is beneficial for cash flow, while EV growth will be slower than previously projected [102][104]

Additional Information This presentation may be deemed to be solicitation material in respect of the Business Combination, including the issuance of AAM's shares of common stock in respect of the Business Combination. In connection with the foregoing proposed issuance of AAM's shares of common stock, AAM expects to file a proxy statement on Schedule 14A (together with any amendments and supplements thereto, the "Proxy Statement") with the SEC. To the extent the Business Combination is effected as a scheme o ...

Financial Performance - AAM's sales for Q1 2025 were $1.41 billion, down from $1.61 billion in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease in overall volumes [4]. - Net income for Q1 2025 was $7.1 million, or 0.5% of sales, compared to $20.5 million, or 1.3% of sales in Q1 2024 [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $177.3 million, or 12.6% of sales, down from $205.6 million, or 12.8% of sales in Q1 2024 [6]. - Net sales for Q1 2025 were $1,411.3 million, a decrease of 12.1% compared to $1,606.9 million in Q1 2024 [28]. - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $173.9 million, down from $198.5 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a gross margin of 12.3% [28]. - Operating income decreased to $42.7 million in Q1 2025 from $77.0 million in Q1 2024, representing a decline of 44.5% [28]. - Net income for Q1 2025 was $7.1 million, significantly lower than $20.5 million in Q1 2024, resulting in diluted earnings per share of $0.06 compared to $0.17 [28][36]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $177.3 million, down from $205.6 million in Q1 2024, indicating a decrease of 13.7% [34]. - Free cash flow for Q1 2025 was negative at $(12.8) million, an improvement from $(27.1) million in Q1 2024 [40]. Cash Flow and Outlook - AAM's net cash provided by operating activities for Q1 2025 was $55.9 million, significantly higher than $17.8 million in Q1 2024 [6]. - Adjusted free cash flow for Q1 2025 was $(3.9) million, an improvement from $(21.4) million in Q1 2024 [7]. - AAM's updated financial outlook for 2025 targets sales between $5.65 billion and $5.95 billion, down from a previous range of $5.8 billion to $6.05 billion [17]. - The company is targeting Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $665 million to $745 million for 2025, revised from $700 million to $760 million [17]. - AAM anticipates Adjusted free cash flow for 2025 to be between $165 million and $215 million, down from a prior target of $200 million to $230 million [17]. - Net cash provided by operating activities is estimated to be between $375 million and $425 million [45]. - Full year 2025 targeted Free Cash Flow is expected to be between $75 million and $125 million [45]. - Full year 2025 targeted Adjusted Free Cash Flow is anticipated to range from $165 million to $215 million [45]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $5,139.4 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $5,059.9 million at the end of 2024 [30]. - Total liabilities rose to $4,543.1 million as of March 31, 2025, up from $4,497.1 million at the end of 2024 [30]. Costs and Expenses - The company reported a restructuring and acquisition-related cost of $19.7 million in Q1 2025, compared to $2.5 million in Q1 2024 [28]. - Interest expense for the period is projected to be between $170 million and $180 million [45]. - Depreciation and amortization costs are expected to remain constant at $455 million [45]. - Restructuring-related costs are estimated at $25 million for the year [45]. - Dowlais acquisition-related costs are projected to be $65 million [45]. - Income tax expense is expected to be between $35 million and $50 million [45]. Production and Sales Segments - North American light vehicle production is estimated to be approximately 14.0 to 15.1 million units for 2025 [17]. - Segment sales for Driveline were $957.8 million in Q1 2025, down from $1,106.4 million in Q1 2024, while Metal Forming sales decreased to $575.8 million from $644.1 million [42].

Core Viewpoint - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AAM) reported a decline in sales and net income for the first quarter of 2025, but achieved positive year-over-year operating cash flow due to cost control and productivity improvements [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - AAM's sales for Q1 2025 were $1.41 billion, down from $1.61 billion in Q1 2024, primarily due to lower volumes [2][6]. - The net income for Q1 2025 was $7.1 million, or $0.06 per share, compared to $20.5 million, or $0.17 per share, in Q1 2024 [3][6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $177.3 million, representing 12.6% of sales, down from $205.6 million, or 12.8% of sales, in Q1 2024 [4][6]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Net cash provided by operating activities for Q1 2025 was $55.9 million, significantly higher than $17.8 million in Q1 2024 [4][30]. - Adjusted free cash flow for Q1 2025 was $(3.9) million, an improvement from $(21.4) million in Q1 2024 [4][35]. Updated Financial Outlook - AAM revised its full-year 2025 sales target to a range of $5.65 billion to $5.95 billion, down from the previous range of $5.8 billion to $6.05 billion [7]. - The company is targeting Adjusted EBITDA between $665 million and $745 million, reduced from the prior range of $700 million to $760 million [7]. - Adjusted free cash flow is now expected to be between $165 million and $215 million, down from the previous target of $200 million to $230 million [7]. Segment Performance - In Q1 2025, the Driveline segment generated sales of $957.8 million, down from $1,106.4 million in Q1 2024, while the Metal Forming segment saw sales decrease to $575.8 million from $644.1 million [36]. - Total segment Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $177.3 million, compared to $205.6 million in Q1 2024 [36]. Company Overview - AAM is a leading global Tier 1 automotive and mobility supplier, focusing on driveline and metal forming technologies for electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles [15]. - The company is headquartered in Detroit and operates over 75 facilities across 16 countries [15].