Core Insights - Axis Capital reported quarterly earnings of $3.25 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.72 per share, and showing an increase from $2.71 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +19.49% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $1.64 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.71% and up from $1.58 billion year-over-year [2] Earnings Performance - Over the last four quarters, Axis Capital has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates, achieving this four times [2] - The company had a previous quarter earnings expectation of $2.88 per share but reported $3.29, resulting in a surprise of +14.24% [1] Stock Performance and Outlook - Axis Capital shares have increased by approximately 0.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 17.2% [3] - The company's future stock performance will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the earnings outlook [4][6] Earnings Estimates - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.95 on revenues of $1.64 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $12.15 on revenues of $6.41 billion [7] Industry Context - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, to which Axis Capital belongs, is currently ranked in the top 14% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for stocks in this sector [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked using tools like the Zacks Rank [5]

Financial Performance - Net income available to common shareholders was $294 million, or $3.79 per common share, with operating income of $255 million, or $3.25 per diluted common share[229]. - Net investment income decreased by 10% to $185 million, while net investment gains were $31 million[229]. - Net investment income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $579.9 million, a 3% increase from $563.5 million in the same period of 2024[309]. - Net investment gains for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $44.4 million, compared to a net investment loss of $30.5 million in the same period of 2024[315]. - Total return on cash and investments for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $952.2 million, compared to $898.1 million in the same period of 2024[320]. - Annualized return on average common equity (ROACE) increased to 20.6% for the three months ended September 30, 2025, up from 13.0% in 2024[332]. - Net income available to common shareholders was $294.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $173.2 million in 2024[348]. - Operating income per diluted common share increased to $3.25 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, from $2.71 in 2024[348]. Premiums and Underwriting - Gross premiums written increased by 10% to $2.1 billion, while net premiums written rose by 9% to $1.4 billion[244]. - Underwriting income was reported at $188 million, with a combined ratio of 89.4%[229]. - Gross premiums written for Q3 2025 increased by $165 million, or 11%, compared to Q3 2024, totaling $1,691,882 million[252]. - Net premiums written for Q3 2025 reached $1,084,947 million, an 11% increase from $975,911 million in Q3 2024[250]. - Total net premiums earned for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $4,186,133 million, a 7% increase from $3,929,221 million in the same period of 2024[250]. - The combined ratio for Q3 2025 improved to 89.4%, down from 93.1% in Q3 2024, reflecting a 3.7 percentage point decrease[247]. - Professional lines gross premiums written increased by 18% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, reaching $337,888 million[251]. - Accident and health gross premiums written surged by 35% in Q3 2025, totaling $161,470 million, compared to $119,686 million in Q3 2024[251]. Loss Ratios and Expenses - The current accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophe and weather-related losses, was 56.3% for Q3 2025, a 0.6 percentage point increase from 55.7% in Q3 2024[247]. - The net losses and loss expenses ratio for Q3 2025 was 58.0%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from 60.9% in Q3 2024[247]. - The acquisition cost ratio for Q3 2025 was 19.7%, down from 20.1% in Q3 2024, indicating improved cost efficiency[247]. - The underwriting-related general and administrative expense ratio increased to 12.1% for Q3 2025 from 11.6% in Q3 2024, driven by investments in underwriting teams and IT[275]. - The current accident year loss ratio decreased to 56.2% for Q3 2025 from 59.3% in Q3 2024, influenced by lower catastrophe and weather-related losses[267]. Investments and Capital Structure - Total cash and invested assets amounted to $16.8 billion, with fixed maturities and cash comprising 87% of this total[229]. - Total investments increased by $518 million to $15.55 billion as of September 30, 2025, driven by reinvestment of interest income and cash flows from operations[380]. - Fixed maturities, available for sale, rose to $12.88 billion from $12.15 billion, with a weighted average credit rating of A+ and a book yield of 4.6%[380][386]. - Common equity rose by $278 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, reaching $5.82 billion compared to $5.54 billion at the beginning of the period[401]. - The debt to total capital ratio improved to 17.1% as of September 30, 2025, down from 17.8% at December 31, 2024, indicating a stronger capital structure[393]. Tax and Corporate Expenses - The effective tax rates for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, were 18.9% and 19.2%, respectively[243]. - Corporate expenses decreased to $28.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, a 15% decline from $33.6 million in 2024[323]. - Income tax expense increased by 47% to $70 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $48 million in 2024[330]. Shareholder Returns and Repurchases - Cash dividends declared per common share remained steady at $0.44 for both the three months ended September 30, 2025, and 2024[332]. - The company repurchased 6.7 million common shares for a total of $626 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[401]. - The company has a remaining authorization of $400 million under its open-ended share repurchase program as of September 30, 2025[404].

Financial Performance - Gross premiums written for Q3 2025 reached $2,124,184, a 9.7% increase from $1,935,902 in Q3 2024[18] - Net income available to common shareholders for Q3 2025 was $294,301, reflecting a 70.0% increase compared to $173,165 in Q3 2024[18] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $255,275, an 11.0% increase from $230,063 in Q3 2024[18] - Earnings per diluted common share for Q3 2025 was $3.74, an 83.3% increase from $2.04 in Q3 2024[18] - Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $4,829,244, up 7.7% from $4,485,880 in the same period of 2024[22] - Net income available to common shareholders for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $696,601, compared to $765,465 in 2024, a decrease of 9.0%[31] - For Q3 2025, AXIS Capital Holdings reported gross premiums written of $2,124,184, a decrease from $2,515,971 in Q2 2025[42] - The net premiums written for Q3 2025 were $1,352,989, compared to $1,635,434 in Q2 2025, reflecting a decline of approximately 17.3%[42] - The total net incurred losses and loss expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, amounted to $2.43 billion, with net paid losses and loss expenses at $2.35 billion[64] Underwriting Performance - The combined ratio improved to 89.4%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from 93.1% in Q3 2024[18] - The combined ratio for Q3 2025 improved to 89.4%, down from 93.1% in Q3 2024, indicating better underwriting performance[28] - The combined ratio improved to 89.5% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, down from 91.6% in 2024, indicating better underwriting performance[35] - The combined ratio for Q3 2025 was 89.4%, slightly higher than 88.9% in Q2 2025, indicating a deterioration in underwriting performance[42] - The current accident year loss ratio for Q3 2025 was 59.3%, slightly up from 59.0% in Q2 2025[28] - The current accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophe and weather-related losses, was 56.3% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, slightly up from 55.7% in 2024[35] - The current accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophe and weather-related losses, was 67.9% for Q3 2025, consistent with Q2 2025[47] Investment Performance - Net investment income decreased to $184,903, down 9.8% from $205,100 in Q3 2024[18] - Net investment income for Q3 2025 was $184,903, a decrease from $205,100 in Q3 2024[22] - Net investment income increased to $579,911 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $563,458 in 2024, an increase of 3.8%[31] - Net investment losses for Q3 2025 were $30.9 million, slightly improved from losses of $32.2 million in Q3 2024[71] - Net investment income for Q3 2025 was $184,903 million, compared to $154,201 million in Q3 2023, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 19.9%[49] Shareholder Equity - Total shareholders' equity rose to $6,367,009, a 4.7% increase from $6,083,227 in Q3 2024[18] - The average common shareholders' equity increased to $5.72 billion in Q3 2025 from $5.32 billion in Q3 2024, a growth of 7.7%[71] - The book value per diluted common share increased to $73.82 at September 30, 2025, compared to $65.27 at December 31, 2024[68] - The tangible book value per diluted common share was $71.42 for Q3 2025, up from $62.97 in Q4 2024[69] Costs and Expenses - Acquisition costs for Q3 2025 were $285,618, a 3.3% increase from $274,935 in Q3 2024[22] - Total underwriting expenses for Q3 2025 were $1,270,164, an increase from $1,212,892 in Q2 2025, indicating a rise of about 4.7%[42] - Acquisition costs for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $826,094, up from $794,280 in 2024, reflecting an increase of 4.0%[31] Reserves and Losses - The reserve for losses and loss expenses at the end of Q3 2025 was $17.996 billion, with incurred losses of $1.365 billion for the quarter[60] - The net reserve for losses and loss expenses was $8.953 billion at the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a stable position compared to previous periods[60] - The gross reserve for losses and loss expenses stood at $18.0 billion as of September 30, 2025, unchanged from the previous period[64] - The reserve for incurred but not reported (IBNR) losses was $12.3 billion, representing 68% of the total reserve for losses and loss expenses[61] Other Financial Metrics - Annualized return on average common equity increased to 20.6%, up 7.6 percentage points from 13.0% in Q3 2024[18] - The annualized ROACE for Q3 2025 was 20.6%, an increase from 13.0% in Q3 2024, indicating improved return on capital[28] - The annualized ROACE for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was 16.4%, down from 19.9% in 2024, indicating a decline in return on average common equity[35] - The debt to total capital ratio improved to 17.1% as of September 30, 2025, compared to 17.8% at December 31, 2024[51] Currency and Foreign Exchange - Foreign exchange losses for Q3 2025 were $13.5 million, a significant decrease from gains of $92.2 million in Q3 2024[71] Non-GAAP Measures - The company emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP financial measures to provide a clearer understanding of operational performance[74]

Core Insights - The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance (P&C) industry is expected to benefit from prudent underwriting, exposure growth, and accelerated digitalization, with key players like The Travelers Companies, Allstate, Cincinnati Financial, CNA Financial, and Axis Capital poised for growth despite rising catastrophic events [1][2]. Industry Overview - The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry includes companies providing commercial and personal property insurance, casualty insurance products, and services, with premiums being the primary revenue source [3]. - The industry is experiencing soft pricing after a period of improved pricing, influenced by factors such as interest rate cuts and inflation [2][3]. Trends Impacting the Industry - Catastrophes are a major concern, leading to rate increases to ensure claims payouts, with global commercial insurance rates falling 4% in the third quarter [4]. - The personal auto insurance segment is expected to perform strongly due to improved investment returns and reduced claims, with gross premiums projected to grow significantly by 2030 [4][5]. - Increased adoption of technology, including AI and insurtech, is transforming operations and enhancing efficiency within the industry [7][8]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The Property and Casualty Insurance industry has underperformed compared to its sector and the S&P 500, with a year-to-date increase of 6.8% compared to 12.5% and 14.9% for the sector and S&P 500, respectively [11]. - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.53X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 8.79X and the sector's 4.23X [13]. Mergers and Acquisitions - Consolidation within the property and casualty industry is expected to continue as companies seek to diversify operations and gain market share, supported by strong capital levels [6]. Company-Specific Insights - **Travelers Companies**: Positioned for growth with high retention and improved pricing, expected earnings growth of 12.3% and 7.6% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [19][20]. - **Allstate**: Anticipates premium improvements from rate increases and strategic acquisitions, with earnings growth of 0.1% and 22% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [23][24]. - **Cincinnati Financial**: Focused on growth through better pricing and disciplined expansion, with a projected earnings growth of 31.1% for 2026 [27][28]. - **Axis Capital**: Aims for growth in specialty underwriting, with expected earnings growth of 8.7% and 1.9% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [31][32]. - **CNA Financial**: Maintains a favorable combined ratio and is well-positioned for growth, with projected earnings growth of 4.3% for 2026 [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Axis Capital, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates, which could significantly impact stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Axis Capital is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +0.4% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $1.63 billion, an increase of 3.4% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.34% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][12]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Axis Capital is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.86% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with a strong predictive power for positive readings [9][10]. - Axis Capital's current Zacks Rank is 2 (Buy), but the negative Earnings ESP complicates predictions for an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Axis Capital exceeded expectations with earnings of $3.29 per share against an estimate of $2.88, resulting in a surprise of +14.24% [13]. - The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters [14]. Industry Comparison - Cincinnati Financial, a peer in the insurance industry, is expected to report earnings of $2.01 per share, indicating a year-over-year change of +41.6% and revenues of $2.85 billion, up 11.3% [18][19]. - Cincinnati Financial's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.1% higher, with a positive Earnings ESP of +4.49%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) is positioned for potential growth, with a recent price target set by Wells Fargo suggesting a significant upside based on positive earnings outlooks and market performance [2][4]. Company Overview - Axis Capital Holdings Limited operates as a global provider of specialty insurance and reinsurance solutions, competing with major players like Chubb and AIG [1]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $7.55 billion and has shown price volatility over the past year, with a trading range between $77.21 and $107.19 [3][5]. Stock Performance - The current stock price of AXS is $96.54, reflecting a 1.63% increase or $1.55 from the previous trading session [3][5]. - The stock has traded within a range of $95.01 to $96.96 on the current day, indicating active trading [3]. Analyst Ratings - Wells Fargo has set a price target of $123 for AXS, indicating a potential increase of approximately 27.41% from its current price [2][5]. - AXS has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), reflecting growing optimism regarding its earnings prospects and future performance [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - Axis Capital (AXS) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system reflects changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements, particularly due to institutional investors adjusting their valuations based on these estimates [4][6]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value for a stock, prompting institutional investors to buy or sell, thus affecting stock prices [4]. Company Performance and Outlook - The upgrade for Axis Capital suggests an improvement in the company's underlying business, which is expected to be recognized by investors through a potential increase in stock price [5]. - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Axis Capital is projected to earn $11.95 per share, with a 3.4% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past three months [8]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks, which have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade of Axis Capital to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

Core Insights - AXIS Capital Holdings Limited is set to release its financial results for Q3 2025 on October 29, 2025, after market close [1] - The investor teleconference will be held on October 30, 2025, at 8 AM, featuring CEO Vince Tizzio and CFO Peter Vogt [1] Financial Results Announcement - The financial results pertain to the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 [1] - The announcement will occur after the close of financial markets on October 29, 2025 [1] Investor Engagement - An investor teleconference will follow the results announcement, allowing for a question and answer session [1] - The teleconference is scheduled for October 30, 2025, at 8 AM [1]

Core Insights - AXIS Capital Holdings Limited has appointed Hannah Hosking as Head of Distribution for Global Markets, aiming to enhance its strategic distribution partnerships [1][3] - Hosking brings 25 years of experience in the insurance industry, previously holding senior roles at AXA XL, Chubb, Hiscox, and Aon [3][4] - The appointment is expected to strengthen broker relationships and align distribution strategy within the Global Markets division [4] Company Overview - AXIS Capital is a global specialty underwriter and provider of insurance and reinsurance solutions [1] - The company is focused on advancing its go-to-market approach and enhancing its value proposition in the insurance sector [4] Leadership and Strategy - Hannah Hosking will report to Edward Ashby, Chief Commercial Officer, and work closely with Sara Farrup, Head of Global Markets [3] - The leadership team aims to drive leadership in specialty underwriting and improve collaboration with key broker and distribution partners [4]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry ranks within the top 17% of 245 Zacks industries, currently holding a Zack Industry Rank of 42, indicating strong growth potential driven by better pricing, prudent underwriting, increased exposure, and ongoing economic expansion [1] Price Performance - The property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry has returned 6.4% over the past year, underperforming the Finance sector's growth of 17.9% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite's rise of 18.4% [2] - Notable performers include Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR), W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB), and Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS), which have outperformed both the industry and the sector [2] Driving Forces - Global commercial insurance rates fell by 4% in Q2 2025, marking the fourth consecutive decline after seven years of increases [3] - Gross premiums in the insurance sector are projected to exceed $722 billion by 2030, driven by price hikes, operational strength, and strong renewal rates [3] Catastrophe Losses - Global insured losses from natural catastrophes reached $80 billion in the first half of 2025, nearly double the 10-year average, with severe convective storms accounting for $31 billion [4] - Total global economic losses from natural catastrophes increased to $162 billion in the first half of 2025, which continues to drive policy renewal rates [4] Interest Rate Environment - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4-4.25%, with expectations for two more cuts in 2025, which is beneficial for insurers with large invested asset bases [6][7] - An improving rate environment is advantageous for long-tail insurers, enhancing their investment income [7] Technological Investments - Insurers are heavily investing in technology, including blockchain, AI, and insurtech solutions, to improve efficiency and profitability, with projections of generating around $4.7 billion in annual global premiums from AI-related insurance by 2032 [9] Company Highlights Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) - PLMR focuses on catastrophe insurance and is well-positioned for growth due to strong premium retention, geographic expansion, and better pricing [11] - The company expects adjusted net income between $198 million and $205 million in 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 46.9% and 27.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [12][13] W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) - WRB is one of the largest commercial lines property casualty insurance providers, benefiting from premium increases and international market growth [14][15] - The consensus estimate for WRB's 2025 revenues is $14.64 billion, reflecting an 8.2% year-over-year improvement [16] Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) - AXS provides a broad range of specialty insurance and reinsurance solutions, with a focus on growth in attractive lines and underwriting excellence [19][20] - The consensus estimate for AXS's 2025 revenues is $6.43 billion, indicating a year-over-year improvement of 5.5% [21]