Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Axis Capital despite higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Axis Capital is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.93 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1.4%, while revenues are projected to be $1.64 billion, an increase of 3.5% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.17% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Most Accurate Estimate for Axis Capital is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.45%, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Axis Capital exceeded earnings expectations by delivering $3.25 per share against an expected $2.72, achieving a surprise of +19.49% [13]. The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters [14]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, other factors may influence stock performance, making it essential for investors to consider the Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank before the earnings release [15][16].

Core Insights - AXIS Capital Holdings Limited has published research on how artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the risk environment, based on insights from CEOs and CISOs [1][3] Group 1: AI's Impact on Risk and Cybersecurity - AI is recognized for enhancing data analytics, innovation, and operational efficiency, while also introducing new risks [4][5] - The dual nature of AI as a productivity enhancer and a source of unprecedented risk is emphasized as central to modern cyber risk [5] - AI strengthens cyber defense tools but also empowers cybercriminals, creating new vulnerabilities [6] Group 2: Survey Findings on AI Threats - AI-driven attacks are the leading concern for 29.6% of US respondents and 20.8% of UK respondents [7] - A generational divide exists, with only 23.1% of executives aged 55 and over believing AI will enhance cyber defenses, compared to 77.4% of leaders aged 35–44 [8] Group 3: Regional Differences in AI Preparedness - There is a notable contrast between US confidence and UK caution regarding AI threats, with 85% of US leaders feeling prepared compared to 44% of UK leaders [9] - 88.4% of US CEOs believe AI will strengthen protections, while only 55% of UK CEOs share this view [9] Group 4: Return on Investment and Cyber Insurance - In the US, 93.5% of CEOs and 87.5% of CISOs believe AI delivers ROI in cybersecurity, compared to 69.1% of CEOs and 74% of CISOs in the UK [10] - 94% of US respondents carry cyber insurance, while only 68.4% of UK respondents do [10] Group 5: Perspectives of CEOs vs. CISOs - CEOs view AI as a lever for productivity, while CISOs associate it with increased exposure [11] - 60.2% of CEOs feel better prepared than peers for AI-related threats, compared to 50.6% of CISOs [12] - CEOs identify data leakage as the primary AI-related threat (28.7%), while CISOs rank shadow AI as the top risk (27.2%) [12] Group 6: Trust and Concerns in AI Decision-Making - In the US, 31.2% of CEOs and 27.7% of CISOs cite AI-driven attacks as their greatest concern, while in the UK, the figures are 22% for CEOs and 19.7% for CISOs [13] - Trust in AI decision-making tools among UK CEOs is mixed, with 49.6% expressing trust and 37.4% expressing distrust [13] Group 7: Strategic Tension in Organizations - The findings highlight a strategic tension between the optimism of CEOs regarding AI and the caution of CISOs regarding security [14] - CEOs champion AI as a catalyst for innovation, while CISOs view it as a new frontier of exposure [14]

Core Insights - AXIS Capital's research highlights the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the risk landscape, revealing differing perspectives between CEOs and CISOs regarding AI's risks and rewards [1][2] Group 1: AI's Impact on Cybersecurity - AI is recognized as a transformative force for data analytics and operational efficiency, but it also introduces new risks, including advanced cyber threats such as shadow AI and ransomware attacks [2] - The survey indicates that 93.5% of U.S. CEOs and 87.5% of U.S. CISOs believe AI delivers a return on investment (ROI) for cybersecurity, compared to 69.1% of U.K. CEOs and 74% of U.K. CISOs [4] - AI-driven attacks are perceived as the greatest emerging cyber threat, with 29.6% of U.S. executives and 20.8% of U.K. executives identifying them as a major concern [6] Group 2: Divergent Perspectives Between CEOs and CISOs - CEOs view AI as a driver of productivity and competitive advantage, while CISOs see it as a source of increased exposure, with 29.7% of CISOs less optimistic about AI strengthening cyber defenses compared to CEOs [5] - Confidence levels differ significantly, with 85% of U.S. leaders feeling prepared for AI threats, while only 44% of U.K. leaders share this confidence [6] - CEOs are more likely to believe their companies are prepared to respond to AI threats, with 60.2% expressing this view compared to 50.6% of CISOs [7] Group 3: Budget and Resource Allocation - Nearly 82% of respondents plan to increase their cybersecurity budgets in the next 12 months, while 75.2% are likely to reduce cybersecurity headcount due to productivity gains from AI tools [6] - A significant gap exists in the adoption of cyber insurance, with 94% of U.S. respondents carrying it compared to 68.4% of U.K. respondents [4] Group 4: Methodology and Demographics - The findings are based on a survey of 500 CEOs and CISOs from the U.S. and U.K., conducted from October 22–29, 2025, with respondents representing companies of at least 250 employees [9]

Group 1 - The initial long recommendation for AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) was made in August 2021 due to strong earnings trends, bullish technical indicators, and attractive valuation at that time [1] - The investment strategy focuses on buying undervalued profitable stocks with strong balance sheets and minimal debt, while also considering writing calls against positions for additional income [1] - Risk management is emphasized through position sizing and the use of trailing stop losses over time [1]

Core Insights - Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) has initiated a phase III study named FORWARD to evaluate AXS-14 (esreboxetine) for managing fibromyalgia, marking a significant step in its drug development process [1][8] - AXS-14 is an investigational oral drug aimed at increasing norepinephrine levels in the brain to alleviate chronic pain and related symptoms associated with fibromyalgia [1] Study Details - The FORWARD study is a phase III double-blind, placebo-controlled withdrawal trial involving patients with fibromyalgia, where participants who respond to treatment during a 12-week open-label period will be randomized to either continue AXS-14 at 8 mg once daily or switch to placebo for up to 12 weeks [2] - The primary endpoint of the study is to measure the time from randomization to the loss of therapeutic response [2][8] Market Performance - Over the past year, AXSM's shares have increased by 89.4%, significantly outperforming the industry average rise of 18.7% [3] Regulatory Background - Axsome submitted a new drug application (NDA) for AXS-14 for fibromyalgia in May 2025, which was delayed from an earlier timeline of the first quarter of 2024 [5] - In June 2025, the FDA issued a Refusal to File (RTF) letter regarding the NDA, citing inadequacies in one of the placebo-controlled studies, prompting Axsome to initiate the FORWARD study to address these concerns [6][8] Disease Context - Fibromyalgia is a chronic neurological pain disorder affecting approximately 17 million people in the United States, characterized by widespread pain, fatigue, sleep disturbances, and other symptoms [7]

Group 1 - AXIS Capital Holdings Limited is set to release its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025 on January 28, 2026 after market close [1] - The investor teleconference to discuss the fourth quarter results will be hosted by Vince Tizzio, President and CEO, and Peter Vogt, CFO, on January 29, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET [2] - The teleconference can be accessed via specific dialing numbers for U.S., Canada, and international callers, with a live webcast available on the company's website [3] Group 2 - AXIS Capital has shareholders' equity of $6.4 billion as of September 30, 2025, and operates in multiple locations including Bermuda, the U.S., Europe, Singapore, and Canada [5] - The company's operating subsidiaries have received strong financial strength ratings of "A+" from Standard & Poor's and "A" from A.M. Best [5]

Group 1 - BofA Securities downgraded AXIS Capital from Buy to Neutral and slightly lowered its price target to $115.00 from $116.00, resulting in a more than 2% intraday share decline [1] - AXIS shares have re-rated from approximately 1.0x book value to 1.4x book value over the past two years, attributed to new leadership, operational initiatives, improved returns, and a stronger balance sheet [1] Group 2 - The outlook for AXIS Capital is becoming more challenging as pricing trends in the insurance sector begin to soften [2] - Concerns have been raised regarding AXIS's underwriting profile becoming less transparent due to an increased share of underwriting activity from managing general agent risk and contract-binding business [2] - Given these challenges, BofA views the risk-reward profile as more balanced and has moved to a Neutral rating [2]

Core Insights - Shares of Axis Capital Holdings (AXS) are showing bullish momentum, trading above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) [1][8] - The stock has gained 20.5% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 11% [3][8] - Analysts have set a Zacks average price target of $118.18 per share, indicating an 8.7% potential upside from the last closing price [3] Company Performance - AXS is currently trading at a price-to-book multiple of 1.42, which is lower than the industry average of 1.52 but above the median of 1.37, suggesting it is undervalued compared to its peers [10] - The company has a trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) of 19%, significantly higher than the industry average of 8.1% [17] - AXS has maintained a strong dividend growth record, with 18 consecutive annual increases and a current yield of 2.3%, well above the industry average of 0.2% [16] Strategic Focus - AXS specializes in higher-value, less commoditized insurance products, targeting markets with higher margins and lower competitive intensity [13] - The company has expanded its underwriting capabilities and repositioned its portfolio over the past three years, resulting in improved performance and reduced volatility [14] - Strong client and distribution relationships are central to AXS's business model, enabling effective risk management and high service standards [15] Market Position - AXS is well-positioned in the specialty insurance market, with growth opportunities in segments such as marine cargo, cyber, and renewable energy, expected to deliver attractive double-digit returns on equity [13] - The company has a solid capital position and continues to enhance shareholder value through consistent dividend growth and share repurchases [16] Analyst Sentiment - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 revenues indicates a 5.1% year-over-year increase, but earnings are expected to decline by 0.1% [19] - Analyst sentiment remains muted, with no movement in the consensus estimate for 2026 earnings over the last 30 days [19]

Core Viewpoint - Investors interested in Property and Casualty insurance stocks may find Axis Capital (AXS) to be a more attractive option compared to Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) due to its better valuation metrics and improving earnings outlook [1]. Valuation Metrics - Axis Capital has a forward P/E ratio of 8.62, significantly lower than Kinsale Capital's forward P/E of 21.00 [5]. - The PEG ratio for AXS is 1.06, while KNSL has a PEG ratio of 1.42, indicating AXS may offer better value relative to its expected earnings growth [5]. - AXS has a P/B ratio of 1.45 compared to KNSL's P/B of 4.95, further suggesting that AXS is undervalued [6]. Earnings Outlook - AXS currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings estimate revision trend, while KNSL has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. - The improving earnings outlook for AXS makes it a standout option in the Zacks Rank model [7]. Value Grades - Based on various valuation metrics, AXS holds a Value grade of B, whereas KNSL has a Value grade of C, reinforcing AXS's position as the superior value option [6].

Industry Overview - The insurance industry has gained 7.9% year to date, driven by better pricing, exposure growth, and accelerated digitalization despite an active catastrophe environment and three rate cuts [2][4] - Macroeconomic conditions remain favorable, with the Federal Reserve projecting 1.7% growth in 2025 and an unemployment rate averaging 4.5% [5] - Global life insurance gross written premiums are expected to reach $2.5 trillion by 2026, with emerging markets likely to expand faster due to low insurance penetration [10][12] Company Performance - Insurers such as Travelers Companies (TRV), Axis Capital Holdings (AXS), Jackson Financial (JXN), Lincoln National (LNC), and Globe Life (GL) have outperformed the market in 2025 and are expected to continue their growth in 2026 [3][11] - Strong underwriting, capital positions, and digital upgrades have enabled these insurers to thrive despite catastrophe losses [11] Specific Company Insights - **Travelers Companies (TRV)**: Expected to grow due to strong renewal rate changes and a solid capital position, with a consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share at $26.40 on $50.5 billion in revenues [14][16] - **Axis Capital Holdings (AXS)**: Focuses on higher-margin segments, with a consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share at $12.66 on $6.8 billion in revenues [17][18] - **Jackson Financial (JXN)**: Anticipates an 11%-27% increase in capital return to shareholders in 2025, with a consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share at $23.85 on $7.8 billion in revenues [19][20] - **Lincoln National (LNC)**: Benefits from a recovering Group Protection business, with a consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share at $8.03 on $19.5 billion in revenues [21][23] - **Globe Life (GL)**: Focuses on niche markets and has a consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share at $15.04 on $6.3 billion in revenues [23][24]