J.P. Morgan analyst John Ivankoe cut the price forecast for Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. BLMN from $13.00 to $10.00 while retaining a Neutral rating.The analyst says that the transition of the previously owned Brazil business to a royalty-based, capital-light model, combined with reduced capital expenditure for new units and strong liquidity, positions the brand and company for long-term success. Meanwhile, the analyst says that near-term challenges remain.Ivankoe says the company has relied too heavily on strateg ...

My previous investment thought on Bloomin’ Brands (NASDAQ: BLMN ) was a hold rating because the business was undergoing a turnaround phase, which I believed the market would not react positively until thereI focus on long-term investments while incorporating short-term shorts to uncover alpha opportunities. My investment approach revolves around bottom-up analysis, delving into the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies. My investment duration is the medium to long-term. Ultimately, I ...

For the fiscal year ended December 29, 2024 or FORM 10-K (Mark One) ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from ______ to ______ Commission File Number: 001-35625 BLOOMIN' BRANDS, INC. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) (State or other jurisdiction of inc ...

Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLMN) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 26, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Tara Kurian - Vice President, Corporate Finance & Investor Relations Mike Spanos - Chief Executive Officer Michael Healy - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Alex Slagle - Jefferies Jeffrey Bernstein - Barclays Brian Harbour - Morgan Stanley John Ivankoe - JPMorgan Lauren Silberman - Deutsche Bank Jeff Farmer - Gordon Haskett Sara Senatore - Bank ...

Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.38 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This compares to earnings of $0.75 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.A quarter ago, it was expected that this owner of Outback Steakhouse and other casual dining spots would post earnings of $0.19 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.21, delivering a surprise of 10.53%.Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS e ...

Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements contained herein, including statements regarding guidance or expected proceed are not based on historical fact and are "forward- looking statements" within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Generally, these statements can be identified by the use of words such as "guidance," "believes," "estimates," "anticipates," "expects," "on track," "feels," "forecasts," "seeks," "projects," "intends," "plans," "may," "will," "should," "could," ''would" and similar ...

Financial Performance - Q4 2024 diluted EPS was $(0.93), while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.38, a decrease of $0.33 from Q4 2023[6] - Total revenues for Q4 2024 were $972.0 million, down 9.3% from $1,071.7 million in Q4 2023[9] - The company reported a GAAP operating income margin of 1.7% for Q4 2024, a decrease of 2.9% compared to Q4 2023[9] - Net loss attributable to Bloomin' Brands for the fiscal year 2024 was $128.0 million, compared to net income of $247.4 million in 2023[31] - The company reported a basic loss per share of $0.94 for the thirteen weeks ended December 29, 2024, compared to earnings of $0.50 for the fourteen weeks ended December 31, 2023[31] - Adjusted net income for the fiscal year 2024 was $159,342,000, down from $268,161,000 in 2023, indicating a decline of 40.6%[47] - The adjusted diluted earnings per share for continuing operations was $0.22 for the thirteen weeks ended December 29, 2024, compared to $0.63 for the fourteen weeks ended December 31, 2023, a decrease of 65.1%[47] - The adjusted operating income margin for the fiscal year 2024 was 5.2%, down from 7.6% in 2023[47] Sales and Revenue Trends - U.S. comparable restaurant sales for Q4 2024 decreased by 1.1%, with Outback Steakhouse down 1.8% and Carrabba's Italian Grill down 0.9%[11] - For fiscal 2025, the company expects U.S. comparable restaurant sales to range from (2.0%) to flat[14] - Restaurant sales decreased to $952.1 million for the thirteen weeks ended December 29, 2024, down 9.2% from $1,048.6 million for the fourteen weeks ended December 31, 2023[31] - The U.S. segment revenues for the thirteen weeks ended December 29, 2024, were $952.5 million, a decrease of 8.6% from $1,042.4 million for the fourteen weeks ended December 31, 2023[32] - Comparable restaurant sales in the U.S. decreased by 1.1% year-over-year for the thirteen weeks ended December 29, 2024, with Outback Steakhouse specifically declining by 1.8%[54] Operational Changes - The company completed the sale of 67% of its Brazil operations on December 30, 2024, retaining a 33% interest[5] - The company plans to open 18 to 20 new company-owned restaurants and approximately 30 new franchised restaurants in 2025[15] - The company opened 3 new restaurants in the U.S. and closed 5, resulting in a total of 1,116 U.S. restaurants as of December 29, 2024[52] - The company’s international franchise total increased to 145 restaurants, with 2 new openings in South Korea[52] Cost and Inflation - Commodity inflation is expected to be between 2.5% and 3.5%, while labor inflation is projected at 4% to 5% for 2025[15] - The company anticipates ongoing challenges due to inflation and labor costs impacting future performance[27] - The total costs and expenses for the thirteen weeks ended December 29, 2024, were $955.8 million, a decrease of 6.5% compared to $1,022.1 million for the fourteen weeks ended December 31, 2023[31] Debt and Cash Position - The company reported a total debt of $1,027.4 million as of December 29, 2024, an increase from $780.7 million as of December 31, 2023[35] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $70.1 million as of December 29, 2024, down from $111.5 million as of December 31, 2023[35] Asset Impairments and Adjustments - The company incurred asset impairments and closure-related charges of $30,602,000 for the thirteen weeks ended December 29, 2024, compared to $34,822,000 for the fourteen weeks ended December 31, 2023[41] - The company’s provision for impaired assets and restaurant closings amounted to $57.2 million for the fiscal year 2024[50] - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported a net adjustment of $181.1 million from continuing operations, primarily due to provisions for impaired assets and restaurant closings[50] Traffic and Customer Spending - The company’s traffic in U.S. continuing operations decreased by 5.1% year-over-year for the thirteen weeks ended December 29, 2024[54] - The average check per person for U.S. continuing operations increased by 4.0% during the same period, indicating a positive trend in customer spending[54]

Company Overview - BofA Securities analyst downgraded Bloomin' Brands Inc (BLMN) from Neutral to Underperform and reduced the price forecast from $18.00 to $13.00 [1] - Bloomin's transaction growth has averaged a decline of approximately 2% per year over the last decade, with its largest brand, Outback, experiencing a -1.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in traffic [1] Revenue Insights - Outback US accounted for about 51% of Bloomin's revenue in FY24, expected to rise to around 53% following the Brazil licensing [2] Market Position and Competition - The casual dining sector generally experiences slow growth, and Bloomin's challenges have allowed competitors to gain a larger market share [3] - The new management's primary focus is on reversing the decline in traffic [3] Performance Metrics - Despite a consistent decrease in volumes, Bloomin's margins have remained unexpectedly strong, with domestic same-store transaction counts roughly 10% lower than in 2019, while restaurant margins have only dropped by 70 basis points [4] - Flow-through margins are around 40% on additional transactions, indicating a smaller margin decline than anticipated [4] Pricing Strategy - Bloomin's pricing has been on par with or higher than competitors like Texas Roadhouse in the steak category [5] - Unlike Chili's, which historically underpriced its competitors, Bloomin's brands have maintained competitive pricing but lack the scale advantages to outspend rivals on marketing without compromising margins [6] Future Outlook - Although BLMN is currently priced below its historical average, revenue and earnings projections are expected to face pressure in the near future [7] - BLMN shares are trading lower by 0.36% at $12.27 [7]

Core Insights - Investors are increasingly turning to dividend-yielding stocks during market turbulence, as these companies typically have high free cash flows and offer substantial dividend payouts [1] Group 1: Stock Ratings and Analyst Insights - Guess?, Inc. (GES) has a dividend yield of 8.63%. Analyst Eric Beder maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $23, while Dana Telsey has a Market Perform rating and reduced the price target from $21 to $18 [3] - Kohl's Corporation (KSS) has a dividend yield of 13.47%. Analyst Robert Drbul downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral, and Paul Lejuez maintained a Neutral rating while cutting the price target from $18 to $14 [4] - Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) has a dividend yield of 7.73%. Analyst John Ivankoe kept a Neutral rating and lowered the price target from $19 to $14, while Brian Vaccaro downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform [5] Group 2: Recent Company Performance - Guess? reported a year-over-year decrease in third-quarter adjusted EPS results as of Nov. 26 [3] - Kohl's reported worse-than-expected third-quarter EPS and sales, cut its FY24 EPS guidance, and projected a net sales decrease of 7%-8% as of Nov. 27 [4] - Bloomin' Brands reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 21 cents, beating the street view of 20 cents, but quarterly revenues of $1.038 billion were down 3.8% and missed the analyst consensus of $1.042 billion [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues in Q3 2024 were $1 billion, down 4% from 2023, primarily due to a decline in comparable restaurant sales and FX translation impacts [25][32] - Q3 GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.08 compared to $0.45 in 2023, while adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.21 versus $0.41 in 2023 [27] - Adjusted operating margins were 3% in Q3 2024, down from 5.3% in the previous year, with restaurant-level margins declining by 150 basis points [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. comparable restaurant sales were negative 150 basis points, with traffic down 440 basis points, consistent with casual dining industry trends [25] - At Outback, average check increased by 2.9% in Q3 2024, while off-premises sales accounted for approximately 23% of total U.S. sales [26] - The third-party delivery business grew to 13% of total U.S. sales, up from 12% in Q3 2023, driven by catering growth [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing a challenging market environment, with industry softness impacting performance and traffic trends [21][32] - The hurricanes negatively affected U.S. domestic comparable sales by approximately 30 basis points in Q4, impacting profitability by about $0.03 per share [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on improving the guest experience and operational excellence, particularly at Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba's [19][20] - A strategic partnership with Vinci Partners for Brazil operations was announced, retaining 33% ownership to simplify and focus on domestic operations [22][23] - The company plans to share a meaningful update on the Outback and Bloomin' Brands strategy in the next earnings call [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed dissatisfaction with current performance and acknowledged the need for improvement, particularly in guest experience and traffic growth [21][39] - The updated full-year guidance reflects continued industry softness, with adjusted diluted earnings per share expected to be between $1.72 and $1.82 [32] - Management emphasized the importance of operational excellence and a strong team member experience to drive guest loyalty and repeat visits [41][85] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased 10.1 million shares for approximately $266 million year-to-date, with a remaining authorization of $97 million [31] - A quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share was declared, payable on December 11 [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about Outback's guest experience and traffic - Management acknowledged declining same-store sales and traffic at Outback, emphasizing the need to enhance the guest experience and operational excellence [41][43] Question: Thoughts on the portfolio and activist investor relations - Management described a collaborative relationship with the activist investor Starboard, focusing on sustainability and guest experience [46] Question: Insights from operators on brand positioning - Operators expressed a desire for simplification and a focus on core offerings to enhance guest experience and frequency of visits [51][52] Question: Reinvestment in the brand and asset base - Management confirmed the importance of reinvesting in the base business for sustainable growth, including repairs and remodels [59][60] Question: Changes to the menu at Outback - Management indicated a focus on simplification and returning to core offerings to improve guest experience [68] Question: Current value positioning of Outback - Management highlighted the importance of balancing price and benefits to enhance perceived value, with a focus on affordability [70][72] Question: Marketing strategy and brand positioning - Management emphasized the need for a strong guest experience as the foundation for brand loyalty and trust, while maintaining flat marketing spends year-over-year [86]