Core Viewpoint - The article highlights four undervalued stocks that are well-positioned to navigate the market volatility expected in 2026, emphasizing their defensive business models and attractive dividend yields [4][18]. Group 1: Market Context - The stock market is currently experiencing heightened volatility due to inflation fears, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting interest rate expectations [4]. - Investors are increasingly seeking stocks that offer attractive dividend income alongside defensive business models [2]. Group 2: Featured Stocks - **Betterware de México (BWMX)**: - YTD return of +20.3%, with a solid 6.38% dividend yield and a recent payout of $1.11 per share. The stock is undervalued, trading at $17.09, with a fair value upside of 61.2% [6][7]. - **Spectrum Brands (SPB)**: - YTD return of +21.8%, with a 2.5% dividend yield and a payout of $1.88 per share. The stock has a fair value upside of 57.6% and is seen as a defensive holding [8][9]. - **Sirius XM (SIRI)**: - YTD return of +12%, offering a 5.06% dividend yield with a payout of $1.08 per share. The stock trades at a P/E of 9.9x, with a fair value upside of 41.1% [10][15]. - **Kinetik Holdings (KNTK)**: - Leading with a YTD return of +29.3%, it offers a generous 7.94% dividend yield and a recent payout of $3.24 per share. The stock has a fair value upside of 27.1% and is considered a potential M&A candidate [16][17].

Core Insights - The U.S. has initiated extensive trade investigations targeting China, adding tension to the upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping [1][2][7] Trade Investigations - The investigations are conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, focusing on identifying unfair trade practices, particularly in manufacturing sectors [2][5] - The U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to strike down Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs has prompted the administration to pivot to other tools, including these investigations, to maintain pressure on China [4][5] Economic Context - Despite global criticism regarding its reliance on external demand, China's exports increased by 21.8% in the first two months of the year, resulting in a trade surplus of $213.6 billion [6] - The investigations introduce new uncertainties into the already fragile trade truce between the U.S. and China, complicating the diplomatic landscape ahead of the summit [7][8] Geopolitical Factors - U.S. military actions in Iran have raised concerns about China's energy supplies, further complicating its position in the bilateral talks [8][9] - The volatile situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil supply route, poses risks for China, which is a major buyer of Iranian crude [10][11]

Core Insights - The article highlights the expertise of a seasoned equity analyst specializing in the U.S. restaurant industry, covering various segments from quick-service to fine dining [1] - The analyst employs advanced financial modeling and sector-specific KPIs to identify hidden value in public equities, particularly focusing on micro and small-cap companies often overlooked by mainstream analysts [1] Industry Focus - The research firm, Goulart's Restaurant Stocks, is dedicated to thematic research and valuation efforts within the restaurant sector, indicating a comprehensive approach to understanding market dynamics [1] - The analyst also covers related sectors such as consumer discretionary, food & beverage, and casinos & gaming, showcasing a broad understanding of interconnected industries [1] Academic and Professional Background - The analyst possesses an MBA in Controllership and Accounting Forensics, along with a Bachelor's in Business Administration, providing a strong academic foundation for investment analysis [1] - Specialized training in valuation, financial modeling, and restaurant operations enhances the analyst's capability to assess investment opportunities effectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of confirming the sustainability of stock trends for profitable short-term investing, highlighting the need for sound fundamentals and positive earnings estimates to maintain momentum. Group 1: Trend Analysis - The trend in short-term investing is crucial, and confirming its sustainability is essential for profitability [1][2] - A predefined screen called "Recent Price Strength" helps identify stocks on an uptrend with strong fundamentals, indicating bullishness [3] Group 2: Company Spotlight - Betterware de Mexico SAPI de C (BWMX) - BWMX has shown a solid price increase of 26.7% over the past 12 weeks, reflecting investor confidence in its potential upside [4] - The stock has maintained a price increase of 0.4% over the last four weeks, indicating that the upward trend is still intact [5] - BWMX is trading at 87.3% of its 52-week high-low range, suggesting it may be on the verge of a breakout [5] Group 3: Fundamental Strength - BWMX holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises [6] - The Zacks Rank system has a strong track record, with Rank 1 stocks averaging an annual return of +25% since 1988 [7] - The Average Broker Recommendation for BWMX is also 1 (Strong Buy), indicating high optimism from the brokerage community regarding its near-term price performance [7] Group 4: Additional Opportunities - Besides BWMX, there are other stocks that meet the criteria of the "Recent Price Strength" screen, suggesting further investment opportunities [8] - The article encourages exploring over 45 Zacks Premium Screens tailored to different investing styles for potential winning stock picks [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter revenue grew 1.2% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin of 19%, slightly below last year due to temporary gross margin impacts [3][4] - Full year revenue also increased by 1.2%, with an EBITDA margin closing at 18.7%, primarily affected by an abnormal contraction in Q1 [4][24] - Free cash flow more than doubled year-over-year, with over 83% of EBITDA converted into free cash flow, and total debt reduced by MXN 700 million, decreasing leverage from 1.75x to 1.56x [4][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Jafra Mexico continued to grow, while Betterware Mexico narrowed its sales decline, with Jafra US achieving its first growth quarter in Q4 [3][4] - Betterware's fourth quarter EBITDA margin was impacted by temporary FX-related effects, but would have been approximately 22% without these effects [8] - Jafra Mexico achieved record high sales in Q4 despite a challenging consumption environment, with adjusted EBITDA recovering significantly from the weak first quarter [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Mexican consumer experienced a slight contraction last year, but is expected to stabilize in 2026 due to decreasing interest rates and stable inflation [35][48] - The beauty market remains resilient, with Jafra positioned to benefit from this trend despite challenges in overall consumption [51] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen its leadership in Mexico, expand regionally, develop new brands, activate a digital P2P model, and maintain strict financial discipline [7][8] - The acquisition of Tupperware's Latin American business for $250 million is expected to enhance revenue and profitability through innovation and operational synergies [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a more stable consumer environment in 2026, with expectations of returning to growth levels of 4%-8% [48] - The company plans to focus on innovation and technology to drive growth in both Betterware and Jafra brands [49] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a 32% trailing twelve-month dividend to EBITDA ratio, with a strong balance sheet and liquidity position [25] - The digital transformation strategy aims to enhance operations and leverage data for improved productivity and scalability [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we be thinking about the Mexican consumer? - Management noted a slight contraction last year but expects stability in 2026 due to positive economic factors [35][36] Question: How should we be thinking about inventory growth in 2026? - Management indicated that inventory levels are close to optimal, with minimal further reductions expected [36] Question: Is Q4 a blip for Jafra, or should we expect continued growth? - Management expects continued growth for Jafra, with a focus on innovation and product redesigns [42][43] Question: What gives confidence in the 4%-8% growth outlook for 2026? - Management cited stable consumption and internal strategies as key factors for returning to previous growth levels [48][49] Question: Can you discuss the challenges in the beauty market? - Management believes the beauty market has more tailwinds compared to other categories and remains optimistic about its growth [51] Question: Any color on EBITDA guidance by segment? - Management expects a balanced EBITDA margin around 19% or above, with various factors influencing this [53]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter revenue grew 1.2% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin of 19%, slightly below last year due to temporary gross margin impacts [3][4] - Full year revenue also increased by 1.2%, with an EBITDA margin of 18.7%, primarily affected by a contraction in Q1 [4][24] - Free cash flow more than doubled compared to the prior year, with over 83% of EBITDA converted into free cash flow, and total debt reduced by MXN 700 million, decreasing leverage from 1.75x to 1.56x [4][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Jafra Mexico continued to grow, while Betterware Mexico narrowed its sales decline, with Jafra US achieving its first growth quarter in Q4 [3][4] - Betterware's fourth quarter EBITDA margin was impacted by temporary FX-related effects, but would have been approximately 22% without these effects [8] - Jafra Mexico achieved record high sales in Q4 despite a challenging consumption environment, with adjusted EBITDA recovering significantly from the weak first quarter [11][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Mexican consumer experienced a slight contraction last year, but is expected to stabilize in 2026 due to decreasing interest rates and stable inflation [35] - The beauty market, where Jafra operates, is expected to remain resilient and grow, despite challenges in overall consumption [51] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen its leadership in Mexico, expand regionally, develop new brands, activate a digital P2P model, and maintain strict financial discipline [7][23] - The acquisition of Tupperware's Latin American business for $250 million is expected to enhance revenue and profitability through innovation and operational synergies [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving 4%-8% growth in 2026, supported by stable consumption and internal strategies [48] - The company plans to focus on innovation and technology to drive growth in both Jafra and Betterware brands [49][50] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a 32% trailing twelve-month dividend to EBITDA ratio and has paid dividends for 24 consecutive quarters since its IPO [25] - The digital transformation is a strategic imperative, focusing on enhancing operations and leveraging data for growth [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we be thinking about the Mexican consumer? - Management believes the Mexican consumer will stabilize in 2026, supported by decreasing interest rates and stable inflation [35] Question: How should we be thinking about inventory growth in 2026? - The company has reduced inventory to optimal levels and does not expect significant decreases moving forward, with cash flow expected to normalize from top-line growth [36][38] Question: Is Q4 a blip for Jafra, or should we expect continued growth? - Jafra is expected to continue growing, with Q4 marking the highest revenue in history and plans for innovation in 2026 [41][42] Question: What gives confidence in the 4%-8% growth outlook for 2026? - Management cites stable consumption and internal strategies as key factors for returning to previous growth levels [48][49] Question: Can you discuss the challenges in the beauty market? - The beauty market is expected to have more tailwinds compared to other categories, and management remains optimistic about its growth [51] Question: Any color on EBITDA guidance by segment? - Management expects a balanced EBITDA margin of 19% or above, considering various factors including investments in Tupperware operations [53]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter revenue grew 1.2% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin of 19%, slightly below last year due to temporary gross margin impacts [3][4] - Full year revenue also increased by 1.2%, with an EBITDA margin of 18.7%, primarily affected by a contraction in Q1 [4][24] - Free cash flow more than doubled year-over-year, with a 24.6% increase for the full year, driven by inventory optimization [4][24] - Total debt decreased by MXN 700 million, improving the leverage multiple from 1.75x to 1.56x [4][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Jafra Mexico continued to grow, while Betterware Mexico narrowed its sales decline, with Jafra US achieving its first growth quarter in Q4 [3][4] - Betterware's fourth quarter EBITDA margin was impacted by temporary FX-related effects, but would have been approximately 22% without these effects [8] - Jafra Mexico achieved record high sales in Q4 despite a challenging consumption environment, with adjusted EBITDA recovering significantly [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Mexican consumer experienced a slight contraction last year, but is expected to stabilize in 2026 due to decreasing interest rates and stable inflation [35][36] - The beauty market, where Jafra operates, is expected to remain resilient and grow, despite challenges in overall consumption [50] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen its leadership in Mexico, expand regionally, develop new brands, activate a digital P2P model, and maintain strict financial discipline [6][7] - The acquisition of Tupperware's Latin American business for $250 million is expected to enhance revenue and profitability through innovation and operational synergies [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a more stable consumption environment in 2026, which is expected to support growth in the 4%-8% range [46][47] - The company plans to focus on innovation and technology to drive growth, particularly in Jafra and Betterware [48][49] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a 32% trailing twelve-month dividend to EBITDA ratio while reducing leverage and investing in geographic expansion [25] - The digital transformation is a strategic imperative aimed at enhancing sales opportunities and operational efficiency [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we be thinking about the Mexican consumer? - Management noted a slight contraction last year but expects stability in 2026 due to positive economic factors [35][36] Question: How should we be thinking about inventory growth in 2026? - Management indicated that inventory levels are close to optimal and should not see significant decreases moving forward [36] Question: Is Q4 a blip for Jafra, or should we expect continued growth? - Management expects Jafra to continue growing, with Q4 marking the highest revenue in history and plans for innovation in 2026 [41][42] Question: What gives confidence in the 4%-8% growth outlook for 2026? - Management cited a more stable consumption environment and internal strategies to regain growth as key factors [46][47] Question: Can you discuss challenges in the beauty market? - Management believes the beauty market has more tailwinds compared to other categories and remains optimistic about its growth [50] Question: Any color on EBITDA guidance by segment? - Management indicated a balanced EBITDA margin expectation of 19% or above, with various factors influencing this [52]

4Q25 Earnings Call February 26, 2026 Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward - Looking Statements Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward - looking statements . Forward - looking statements include statements concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and other statements, which are other than statements of historical facts . The words "believe," "anticipate," "intends," "estimate," "potential," "may," "should," "expect," "p ...

Company Overview - Betterware de Mexico SAPI de C (BWMX) is part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, which includes 255 individual stocks and currently holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 11 [2] - BWMX is categorized under the Consumer Products - Discretionary industry, which consists of 27 companies and is ranked 164 in the Zacks Industry Rank [6] Performance Metrics - BWMX has returned approximately 31.5% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Consumer Discretionary sector, which has returned an average of -5.1% [4] - The average return for stocks in the Consumer Products - Discretionary industry is 13.4%, indicating that BWMX is performing better than its industry peers [6] Analyst Sentiment - BWMX currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting strong analyst sentiment [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BWMX's full-year earnings has increased by 38% over the past quarter, indicating a positive outlook for the company's earnings [3] Comparison with Peers - Another stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Perdoceo Education (PRDO), has also outperformed the sector with an 11% year-to-date increase [4] - The consensus estimate for Perdoceo Education's current year EPS has risen by 9.7% over the past three months, and it also holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [5]

Group 1 - Betterware de Mexico SAPI de C (BWMX) closed at $18.41, with a 12.7% gain over the past four weeks, and a mean price target of $23.33 suggests a 26.7% upside potential [1] - The average price targets range from a low of $20.00 to a high of $30.00, with a standard deviation of $5.77, indicating variability among analysts [2] - Analysts show strong agreement on BWMX's ability to report better earnings than previously predicted, which supports the potential for stock upside [4][11] Group 2 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 38% over the past month, with no negative revisions [12] - BWMX holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] - While consensus price targets may not be reliable for predicting exact gains, they can indicate the direction of price movement [14]